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Background: Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) shape our clinical practice. Several studies report a mediocre replicability rate of the studied RCTs. Many researchers believe that the relatively low replication rate of RCTs is attributed to the high p value significance threshold. To solve this problem, some researchers proposed using a lower threshold, which is inevitably associated with a decrease in the study power. Methods: The results of 22 500 RCTs retrieved from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR) were reinterpreted using 2 fixed p significance threshold (0.05 and 0.005), and a recently proposed flexible threshold that minimizes the weighted sum of errors in statistical inference. Results: With p < 0.05 criterion, 28.5% of RCTs were significant; p < 0.005, 14.2%; and p < flexible threshold, 9.9% (2/3 of significant RCTs based on p < 0.05 criterion, were found not significant). Lowering the p cut-off, although decreases the false-positive rate, is not generally associated with a lower weighted sum of errors; the false-negative rate increases (the study power decreases); important treatments may be left undiscovered. Accurate calculation of the optimal p value thresholds needs knowledge of the variance in each study arm, a posteriori. Conclusions: Lowering the p value threshold, as it is proposed by some researchers, is not reasonable as it might be associated with an increase in false-negative rate. Using a flexible p significance threshold approach, although results in a minimum error in statistical inference, might not be good enough too because only a rough estimation may be calculated a priori; the data necessary for the precise computation of the most appropriate p significance threshold are only available a posteriori. Frequentist statistical framework has an inherent conflict. Alternative methods, say Bayesian methods, although not perfect, would be more appropriate for the data analysis of RCTs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the main theoretical distinctions between reading models is how and when they predict semantic processing occurs. Some models assume semantic activation occurs after word-form is retrieved. Other models assume there is no-word form, and that what people think of as word-form is actually just semantics. These models thus predict semantic effects should occur early in reading. Results showing words with inconsistent spelling-sound correspondences are faster to read aloud if they are imageable/concrete compared to if they are abstract have been used as evidence supporting this prediction, although null-effects have also been reported. To investigate this, I used Monte-Carlo simulation to create a large set of simulated experiments from RTs taken from different databases. The results showed significant main effects of concreteness and spelling-sound consistency, as well as age-of-acquisition, a variable that can potentially confound the results. Alternatively, simulations showing a significant interaction between spelling-sound consistency and concreteness did not occur above chance, even without controlling for age-of-acquisition. These results support models that use lexical form. In addition, they suggest significant interactions from previous experiments may have occurred due to idiosyncratic items affecting the results and random noise causing the occasional statistical error. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Non-invasive prenatal diagnosis of single-gene disorders (SGD-NIPD) has been widely accepted, but is mostly limited to the exclusion of either paternal or de novo mutations. Indeed, it is still difficult to infer the inheritance of the maternal allele from cell-free DNA (cfDNA) analysis. Based on the study of maternal haplotype imbalance in cfDNA, relative haplotype dosage (RHDO) was developed to address this challenge. Although RHDO has been shown to be reliable, robust control of statistical error and explicit delineation of critical parameters for assessing the quality of the analysis have not been fully addressed. We present here a universal and adaptable enhanced-RHDO (eRHDO) procedure through an automated bioinformatics pipeline with a didactic visualization of the results, aiming to be applied for any SGD-NIPD in routine care. A training cohort of 43 families carrying CFTR, NF1, DMD, or F8 mutations allowed the characterization and optimal setting of several adjustable data variables, such as minimum sequencing depth, type 1 and type 2 statistical errors, as well as the quality assessment of intermediate steps and final results by block score and concordance score. Validation was successfully performed on a test cohort of 56 pregnancies. Finally, computer simulations were used to estimate the effect of fetal-fraction, sequencing depth and number of informative SNPs on the quality of results. Our workflow proved to be robust, as we obtained conclusive and correctly inferred fetal genotypes in 94.9% of cases, with no false-negative or false-positive results. By standardizing data generation and analysis, we fully describe a turnkey protocol for laboratories wishing to offer eRHDO-based non-invasive prenatal diagnosis for single-gene disorders as an alternative to conventional prenatal diagnosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sharing research data allows the scientific community to verify and build upon published work. However, data sharing is not common practice yet. The reasons for not sharing data are myriad: Some are practical, others are more fear-related. One particular fear is that a reanalysis may expose errors. For this explanation, it would be interesting to know whether authors that do not share data genuinely made more errors than authors who do share data. (Wicherts, Bakker and Molenaar 2011) examined errors that can be discovered based on the published manuscript only, because it is impossible to reanalyze unavailable data. They found a higher prevalence of such errors in papers for which the data were not shared. However, (Nuijten et al. 2017) did not find support for this finding in three large studies. To shed more light on this relation, we conducted a replication of the study by (Wicherts et al. 2011). Our study consisted of two parts. In the first part, we reproduced the analyses from (Wicherts et al. 2011) to verify the results, and we carried out several alternative analytical approaches to evaluate the robustness of the results against other analytical decisions. In the second part, we used a unique and larger data set that originated from (Vanpaemel et al. 2015) on data sharing upon request for reanalysis, to replicate the findings in (Wicherts et al. 2011). We applied statcheck for the detection of consistency errors in all included papers and manually corrected false positives. Finally, we again assessed the robustness of the replication results against other analytical decisions. Everything taken together, we found no robust empirical evidence for the claim that not sharing research data for reanalysis is associated with consistency errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Low-power consumption has been always a crucial design constraint for an efficient intellectual property based three-dimensional multi-core system that cannot be ignored easily. As the complexity increases due to the number of cores/stacks/ layers in 3D digital systems, the challenges to handle power can be more difficult at a high abstraction level. Therefore, the low-power approach gives designers an opportunity to estimate and optimize the power consumption in the early stages of design phases. The accurate power estimation through the macro-modeling approach at high-level reduces the risk of redesign cycle and turn-around time. In this research, we have presented an improved statistical macro-modeling approach that estimates power through statistical characteristics of randomly generated input patterns by using Biogeography Based Optimization. These input patterns propagate signals into an IP-based 3D digital test system. In experiments, the test system is based on four 8 to 32- bits heterogeneous cores. The response of the power is monitored by applying the well-known Monte Carlo Simulation technique. The entire power estimation method is performed in two major steps. First, the average power is estimated for an IP-based individual core. Second, the average power for bus-based Through-Silicon-Via is estimated. Finally, the cores and B-TSVs are integrated together to construct a 3D system. Then the average power for complete test systems is estimated. The experimental results of the statistical power macro-model are compared with the commercial Electronic Design Automation power simulator at the operating frequency of 100 MHz. The average percentage error of the test system is calculated as 8.65%. For the validation of these results, the statistical error analysis is additionally performed and reveals that our proposed macro-model is accurate in terms of percentage of error with a feasible amount of time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leptospirosis is probably the most widespread zoonotic disease in the world especially in tropical countries. There has been an increase in individual studies, which assessed the frequency of leptospirosis in flood conditions. Some studies showed contact with floods was significantly associated with the occurrence of leptospirosis while other studies reported differently. The objective of this meta-analysis was to synthesize the evidence on the risk factors which are associated with human leptospirosis following flooding. We set up the inclusion criteria and searched for the original studies, addressing leptospirosis in human with related to flood in health-related electronic databases including PubMed, Embase, Ovid Medline, google scholar and Scopus sources. We used the terms ‘leptospirosis’, ‘flood’, ‘risk factor’ and terms from the categories were connected with “OR” within each category and by “AND” between categories. The initial search yielded 557 citations. After the title and abstract screening, 49 full-text papers were reviewed and a final of 18 observational studies met the pre-specified inclusion criteria. Overall, the pooled estimates of 14 studies showed that the contact with flooding was a significant factor for the occurrence of leptospirosis (pooled OR: 2.19, 95%CI: 1.48–3.24, I2:86%). On stratification, the strength of association was greater in the case-control studies (pooled OR: 4.01, 95%CI: 1.26–12.72, I2:82%) than other designs (pooled OR:1.77,95%CI:1.18–2.65, I2:87%). Three factors such as ‘being male’(pooled OR:2.06, 95%CI:1.29–2.83), the exposure to livestock animals (pooled OR: 1.95, 95%CI:1.26–2.64), the lacerated wound (pooled OR:4.35, 95%CI:3.07–5.64) were the risk factors significantly associated with the incidence of leptospirosis following flooding in the absence of within-study heterogeneity (I2: 0%). We acknowledge study limitations such as publication bias and type 2 statistical errors. We recommended flood control and other environmental modifications that are expected to reduce the risk of leptospiral infection, and a multi-sectoral effort to this aspect would have long-term benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To test whether the assessment of growth in very low birth weight infants during the hospital stay using z-score differences (Zdiff) is confounded by gestational age (GA), birth weight percentiles (BW%ile), and length of the observation period (LOP). We hypothesize that Zdiff calculated from growth charts based on birth weight data introduces a systematic statistical error leading to falsely classified growth as restricted in infants growing similarly to the 50th percentile. Methods: This observational study included 6,926 VLBW infants from the German Neonatal Network (2009 to 2015). Inclusion criterion was discharge between 37 and 41 weeks postmenstrual age. For each infant, Zdiff, weight gain velocity, and reference growth rate (50th percentile Fenton) from birth to discharge were calculated. To account for gestational age dependent growth rates, assessment of growth was standardized calculating the weight gain ratio (WGR) = weight gain velocity/reference growth rate. The primary outcome is the variation of the Zdiff-to-WGR relationship. Results: Zdiff and WGR showed a weak agreement with a Zdiff of -0.74 (-1.03, -0.37) at the reference growth rate of the 50th percentile (WGR = 1). A significant proportion (n = 1,585; 23%) of infants with negative Zdiff had weight gain velocity above the 50th percentile’s growth rate. Zdiff to WGR relation was significantly affected by the interaction of GA x BW%ile x LOP. Conclusion: This study supports the hypothesis that Zdiff, which are calculated using birth weights, are confounded by skewed reference data and can lead to misinterpretation of growth rates. New concepts like individualized growth trajectories may have the potential to overcome this limitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated the contribution of shrimp stocks in supporting the production of valuable predator species. Fishery-independent data on white shrimp, brown shrimp, and selected fish species (spotted seatrout, red drum, and southern flounder) were collected from 1986 to 2014 by the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, and converted to catch-per-unit effort (CPUE). Here, the associations between the CPUEs of fish species as predators and those of shrimp species as prey in each sampled bay and sampling season were analyzed using co-integration analysis and Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR). Co-integration analysis revealed significant associations between 31 of 70 possible fish/shrimp pairings. The analysis also revealed discernible seasonal and spatial patterns. White shrimp in August and brown shrimp in May were associated with fish CPUEs in bays located along the lower coast of Texas, whereas white shrimp in November was more strongly associated with fish CPUEs in bays located on the upper coast. This suggests the possible influence of latitudinal environmental gradient. The results of the PLSR, on the other hand, were not conclusive. This may reflect the high statistical error rates inherent to the analysis of short non-stationary time series. Co-integration is a robust method when analyzing non-stationary time series, and a majority of time series in this study was non-stationary. Based on our co-integration results, we conclude that the CPUE data show significant associations between shrimp abundance and the three predator fish species in the tested regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conventional fMRI image analysis approach to associating stimuli to brain activation is performed by carrying out a massive number of parallel univariate regression analyses. fMRI blood-oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) signal, the basis of these analyses, is known for its low signal-noise-ratio and high spatial and temporal signal correlation. In order to ensure accurate localization of brain activity, stimulus administration in an fMRI session is often lengthy and repetitive. Real-time fMRI BOLD signal analysis is carried out as the signal is observed. This method allows for dynamic, real-time adjustment of stimuli through sequential experimental designs. We have developed a voxel-wise sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) approach for dynamically determining localization, as well as decision rules for stopping stimulus administration. SPRT methods and general linear model (GLM) approaches are combined to identify brain regions that are activated by specific elements of stimuli. Stimulus administration is dynamically stopped when sufficient statistical evidence is collected to determine activation status across regions of interest, following predetermined statistical error thresholds. Simulation experiments and an example based on real fMRI data show that scan volumes can be substantially reduced when compared with pre-determined, fixed designs while achieving similar or better accuracy in detecting activated voxels. Moreover, the proposed approach is also able to accurately detect differentially activated areas, and other comparisons between task-related GLM parameters that can be formulated in a hypothesis-testing framework. Finally, we give a demonstration of SPRT being employed in conjunction with a halving algorithm to dynamically adjust stimuli. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Statistical analysis is error prone. A best practice for researchers using statistics would therefore be to share data among co-authors, allowing double-checking of executed tasks just as co-pilots do in aviation. To document the extent to which this ‘co-piloting’ currently occurs in psychology, we surveyed the authors of 697 articles published in six top psychology journals and asked them whether they had collaborated on four aspects of analyzing data and reporting results, and whether the described data had been shared between the authors. We acquired responses for 49.6% of the articles and found that co-piloting on statistical analysis and reporting results is quite uncommon among psychologists, while data sharing among co-authors seems reasonably but not completely standard. We then used an automated procedure to study the prevalence of statistical reporting errors in the articles in our sample and examined the relationship between reporting errors and co-piloting. Overall, 63% of the articles contained at least one p-value that was inconsistent with the reported test statistic and the accompanying degrees of freedom, and 20% of the articles contained at least one p-value that was inconsistent to such a degree that it may have affected decisions about statistical significance. Overall, the probability that a given p-value was inconsistent was over 10%. Co-piloting was not found to be associated with reporting errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, Bennett and Riedel (BR) (http://arxiv.org/abs/1303.7435v1) argued that thermodynamics is not essential in the Kirchhoff-law–Johnson-noise (KLJN) classical physical cryptographic exchange method in an effort to disprove the security of the KLJN scheme. They attempted to demonstrate this by introducing a dissipation-free deterministic key exchange method with two batteries and two switches. In the present paper, we first show that BR's scheme is unphysical and that some elements of its assumptions violate basic protocols of secure communication. All our analyses are based on a technically unlimited Eve with infinitely accurate and fast measurements limited only by the laws of physics and statistics. For non-ideal situations and at active (invasive) attacks, the uncertainly principle between measurement duration and statistical errors makes it impossible for Eve to extract the key regardless of the accuracy or speed of her measurements. To show that thermodynamics and noise are essential for the security, we crack the BR system with 100% success via passive attacks, in ten different ways, and demonstrate that the same cracking methods do not function for the KLJN scheme that employs Johnson noise to provide security underpinned by the Second Law of Thermodynamics. We also present a critical analysis of some other claims by BR; for example, we prove that their equations for describing zero security do not apply to the KLJN scheme. Finally we give mathematical security proofs for each BR-attack against the KLJN scheme and conclude that the information theoretic (unconditional) security of the KLJN method has not been successfully challenged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]