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Malaria hotspots have been the focus of public health managers for several years due to the potential elimination gains that can be obtained from targeting them. The identification of hotspots must be accompanied by the description of the overall network of stable and unstable hotspots of malaria, especially in medium and low transmission settings where malaria elimination is targeted. Targeting hotspots with malaria control interventions has, so far, not produced expected benefits. In this work we have employed a mechanistic-stochastic algorithm to identify clusters of super-spreader houses and their related stable hotspots by accounting for mosquito flight capabilities and the spatial configuration of malaria infections at the house level. Our results show that the number of super-spreading houses and hotspots is dependent on the spatial configuration of the villages. In addition, super-spreaders are also associated to house characteristics such as livestock and family composition. We found that most of the transmission is associated with winds between 6pm and 10pm although later hours are also important. Mixed mosquito flight (downwind and upwind both with random components) were the most likely movements causing the spread of malaria in two out of the three study areas. Finally, our algorithm (named MALSWOTS) provided an estimate of the speed of malaria infection progression from house to house which was around 200–400 meters per day, a figure coherent with mark-release-recapture studies of Anopheles dispersion. Cross validation using an out-of-sample procedure showed accurate identification of hotspots. Our findings provide a significant contribution towards the identification and development of optimal tools for efficient and effective spatio-temporal targeted malaria interventions over potential hotspot areas.

All natural Leishmania infections start in the skin; however, little is known of the contribution made by the sand fly vector to the earliest events in mammalian infection, especially in inflamed skin that can rapidly kill invading parasites. During transmission sand flies regurgitate a proteophosphoglycan gel synthesized by the parasites inside the fly midgut, termed promastigote secretory gel (PSG). Regurgitated PSG can exacerbate cutaneous leishmaniasis. Here, we show that the amount of Leishmania mexicana PSG regurgitated by Lutzomyia longipalpis sand flies is proportional to the size of its original midgut infection and the number of parasites transmitted. Furthermore, PSG could exacerbate cutaneous L. mexicana infection for a wide range of doses (10–10,000 parasites) and enhance infection by as early as 48 hours in inflamed dermal air pouches. This early exacerbation was attributed to two fundamental properties of PSG: Firstly, PSG powerfully recruited macrophages to the dermal site of infection within 24 hours. Secondly, PSG enhanced alternative activation and arginase activity of host macrophages, thereby increasing L-arginine catabolism and the synthesis of polyamines essential for intracellular parasite growth. The increase in arginase activity promoted the intracellular growth of L. mexicana within classically activated macrophages, and inhibition of macrophage arginase completely ablated the early exacerbatory properties of PSG in vitro and in vivo. Thus, PSG is an essential component of the infectious sand fly bite for the early establishment of Leishmania in skin, which should be considered when designing and screening therapies against leishmaniasis., Author Summary Parasites are known to manipulate their arthropod vectors for increased transmission, yet little is known about the manipulator-molecules involved. The protozoan parasite Leishmania secrete a proteophosphoglycan-rich gel (termed promastigote secretory gel, PSG) to block the sand fly midgut to force the regurgitation of parasites and gel into the skin. Here we show that the amount of PSG and dose of Leishmania transmitted by individual sand flies strongly correlate with the size of the original midgut infection. Regurgitated PSG exacerbated both low and high dose mouse infections, resulting from the gel's ability to augment the recruitment of its principal host cell, the macrophage, to the site of injury and induce the upregulation of macrophage arginase activity. The infecting parasites take advantage of the increased arginase-mediated L-arginine catabolism and the increased pool of polyamines available within these macrophages for their early nutrition and growth. This resulted in enhanced survival and growth of Leishmania in macrophages. Since arginase plays a crucial role in orchestrating wound repair in skin, it would appear that through the generation of PSG, Leishmania has evolved to exploit the wound response to the bite of the sand fly for its early survival.