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The migrant mortality advantage has been observed extensively, but its authenticity is debated. In particular, concerns persist that the advantage is an artefact of the data, generated by the problems of recording mobility among foreign-born populations. Here, we build on the intersection of two recent developments: the first showing substantial age variation in the advantage-a deep U-shaped advantage at peak migration ages-and the second showing high levels of population over-coverage, the principal source of data artefact, at the same ages. We use event history analysis of Sweden's population registers (2010-15) to test whether this over-coverage can explain age variation in the migrant mortality advantage. We document its U-shape in Sweden and, crucially, demonstrate that large mortality differentials persist after adjusting for estimated over-coverage. Our findings contribute to ongoing debate by demonstrating that the migrant mortality advantage is real and by ruling out one of its primary mechanisms.

This paper examines the influence of individual and household factors on an individual's propensity to emigrate from Halland, a region in south-west Sweden, to the United States during the era of mass migration in the late nineteenth century. The study has a case-control design, using individual-level longitudinal data for a group of emigrants (cases) and a group of non-emigrants (controls). Results indicate the importance of a family's emigration history; individuals whose relatives had previously moved to the United States were more likely to emigrate themselves. In addition, the results also show how this impact varied between groups and how other factors relating to the individual's life situation affected the migration decision. Thus, this paper shows how chain migration and migration networks play important roles during times of mass migration.

International migration flows are considered the most difficult demographic component to forecast and, for that reason, models for forecasting migration are few and relatively undeveloped. This is worrying because, in developed societies, international migration is often the largest component of population growth and most influential in debates about societal and economic change. In this paper, we address the need for better forecasting models of international migration by testing a hierarchical (bilinear) model within the Bayesian inferential framework, recently developed to forecast age and sex patterns of immigration and emigration in the United Kingdom, on other types of migration flow data: age- and sex-specific time series from Sweden, South Korea, and Australia. The performances of the forecasts are compared and assessed with the observed time-series data. The results demonstrate the generality and flexibility of the model and of Bayesian inference for forecasting migration, as well as for further research.

We propose to extend demographic multistate models by adding a behavioural element: behavioural rules explain intentions and thus transitions. Our framework is inspired by the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We exemplify our approach with a model of migration from Senegal to France. Model parameters are determined using empirical data where available. Parameters for which no empirical correspondence exists are determined by calibration. Age- and period-specific migration rates are used for model validation. Our approach adds to the toolkit of demographic projection by allowing for shocks and social influence, which alter behaviour in non-linear ways, while sticking to the general framework of multistate modelling. Our simulations yield that higher income growth in Senegal leads to higher emigration rates in the medium term, while a decrease in fertility yields lower emigration rates.

We examined the emigration intentions of native-born Dutch residents and their subsequent emigration behaviour from 2005 to 2010. Data were collected from two surveys on emigration intentions, one conducted locally and one nationally. A number of novel results stand out. First, intentions were good predictors of future emigration: 34 per cent of those who had stated an intention to emigrate actually emigrated within the 5-year follow-up period. Second, the personality of potential migrants and their discontent with the quality of the public domain in the Netherlands (e.g., crowded space and inadequate access to unspoilt nature, pollution, crime level, mentality of people) were the strongest contributors to the motivation to move abroad. Third, the main difference between movers and those who stated intentions to emigrate but had not (yet) followed through was their state of health: healthy people were more likely to follow through with their migration intentions than those in poorer health. Keywords: emigration; intentions; behaviour; personality; brain drain; Netherlands

Are remittances determined by altruism or enlightened self-interest, and do they trigger additional migration? In this paper these two questions are examined empirically in relation to data from Egypt, Turkey, and Morocco for households with family members living abroad. It is shown, firstly, that one cannot argue exclusively either for altruism or self-interest as motives, since for each country the data tell a different story and both motives can be identified as driving forces behind remittance behaviour. The general conclusion of this study is that the family ties and the net earnings potential of migrants have stronger effects on the flow of remittances than the net earnings potential of the households in the country of origin. Secondly, because the receipt of remittances has a positive effect on the emigration intentions of household members still living in the country of origin, the receipt of remittances may contribute to new flows of migration, particularly in the case of Morocco. Keywords: remittances; migration; intentions; networks; altruism; self-interest; households; development

In a paper published in this journal, Renzo Derosas (2009) presents a study on the determinants of infant mortality in nineteenth-century Veneto in which he uses micro-data to analyse the relationship between maternal malnutrition and the risk of dying during the first weeks of life. Emphasizing that the case of Veneto, a large region in north-eastern Italy, is of particular interest, he says 'Scattered evidence from parish-register studies suggests that infant mortality rates rose from around 250 per thousand in the mid seventeenth century to 350 per thousand at the beginning of the nineteenth, levels unsurpassed throughout the rest of Italy and most European countries' (p. 233). Infant mortality played a key role in the popula tion stagnation of Veneto after its recovery and growth following the last plague of 1630. Indeed, the decline in the likelihood of surviving the first phases of life was one of the main factors driving population stagnation during the century 1730-1830, a stagna tion that was in contrast to the upward trend in population size common to many other European regions. Conversely, the decline in infant mortality from 1830 to 1915 (from 350 to 150 per thousand live births) was the main driver of the consistent population growth and mass emigration before the First World War (Rosina 1995; Rossi and Rosina 1998). Various studies have described this trend, demonstrating that the dramatic rise in infant mortality and its subsequent decline was due to variation in winter neonatal mortality (see, among others, Rosina and Zannini 2004; Rossi and Tesolat 2006). 'How should such a trend be explained?' is the main question raised in Derosas's paper (p. 234). In a recent paper (Dalla-Zuanna and Rosina 2008), we pursued a possible explanation that is employed by Derosas as the starting point for his detailed analysis. Thanks to the availability of data on daily temperature (Camuffo and Jones 2002) we analysed, at the individual level, the association between external temperature and the risk of dying in the first days and weeks of life in several Veneto parishes during the first half of the nineteenth century. We found that the individual risk of dying for the unlucky children born during the winter was tremendously susceptible to external temperature?the most critical period occurred dur ing the first week of life. We used the results obtained from this analysis?together with empirical evidence from the literature and information gath ered from historical documents?to propose the following causal chain as a plausible explanation (our 'pauperization hypothesis'): general worsening in living conditions -> malnourished mothers -+ low-weight newborns more susceptible to neonatal hypothermia -> lower possibility of survival in the first days of life during the winter. The explicit aim of Derosas's study was to test this hypothesis 'of a causal pathway linking maternal malnutrition, low birth weight, susceptibility to cold, and neonatal mortality' (p. 236). To this end, he uses a large longitudinal sample of individuals living in several selected parishes within the city of Venice, the capital of the Veneto region, from 1850 to 1869. Because no direct information on nutritional status

This contribution to the study of the literacy transition in Britain, Ireland, and Australia also touches on the relationship between literacy and international migration. Some 20,000 emigrants arrived in Australia in 1841 and their literacy is here established at the individual level, and then related to regional origins, occupations, religion, sex, and family status in the British Isles. The new Australian data offer unusual evidence to juxtapose with the prevailing account of British and Irish literacy. The paper makes systematic comparisons of the immigrant evidence with existing literacy findings for the populations of England and Wales, of Ireland, and the colonial population of Australia in the year 1841. The results also show extraordinary similarity of rank orderings between the Australian data and the conventional sources. The results show that the immigrants were consistently more literate than the home and the receiving populations and indicate a substantial link between migration and literacy.

In 1841 the colony of New South Wales offered an unprecedented number of heavily subsidised passages to British emigrants. It sought specific categories particularly single young women domestic servants and agricultural labourers. The colony preferred English and Scottish rural immigrants....While the influence of the selection criteria as well as local factors was pronounced this paper argues that the recruitment also expressed the changing propensities to emigrate within the regions of the British Isles. In particular it demonstrated the willingness of young Irish women to emigrate where facilities were provided to overcome their poverty. The immigration of 1841 was a turning point for Australia: it was the largest recruitment before the gold rushes of the 1850s and already signaled some of the main characteristics of Australian immigration history. (EXCERPT)

This paper explores the development of the population of the Gourma in Northern Mali from the beginning of this century to the present. As part of Northern Sahel, the area has been hard-hit by at least four droughts this century and is among the least developed in Mali. The data used include the available population censuses, colonial records and recent survey research. The droughts of 1973 and 1984 may have increased child mortality, but the most important effects may have been short-term reductions in fertility, as well as increased migration. While approximately 30 per cent of adult men are absent, the overall picture of migration is much more complex than simply one of emigration, as migration into the Gourma and internal redistribution of population also play an important role.

Passages funded by Australia's colonial governments accounted for 56 per cent of all arrivals from the United Kingdom between 1831 and 1860. In concert with a range of private, Colonial Office, and Poor Law sources in the UK, analysis of data on the emigrants' age, sex, occupation, county of origin, literacy, and religious persuasion, collected by colonial Immigration Agents, challenges the traditional view of Australia's government immigrants. Rather than indigent misfits, shovelled out by a system anxious to rid the UK of its poor, they were primarily well-informed, self-selecting, literate individuals who often sought help from philanthropic agencies or their local parish to enable them to finance their passage deposit, mandatory clothing, and travel to the port of embarkation. Comparative analysis of data on occupation and county of origin, which suggests that they were not the spillover of the North America-bound streams, further challenges the prevailing view.

Summary At the theoretical level, the paper has two aims: to develop a three-country migration model and to incorporate British emigration schemes of the 1920s into it. The model is tested on data of U.K. emigration to Canada, the U.S.A. and Australia from 1920 to 1936.

This is a first attempt to use the original passenger manifests from immigrant ships entering U.S. ports to see what can be learned about emigration from the British Isles during the period of most rapid industrialization and urbanization between the Napoleonic Wars and the beginning of mass emigration in the late 1840s. Based on lists compiled during the years 1827 to 1831, the article demonstrates that these original lists contain more social and demographic information about migrants than was ever published by the U.S. government and also that the official statistics that were published were incomplete and exaggerated the fish share in the immigration through U.S ports. The English immigration is shown to have been predominantly a family movement in 1831, but most migrants chose to emigrate at favourable moments in the life cycle. Occupations and countries with low incomes were not well represented among English migrants through U.S. ports. As early as 1831, the majority of men among the English immigrants were industrial workers, though farmers (as distinct from farm labourers) were over-represented.

Despite a low emigration rate compared to other European countries in the last century, Dutch emigration has been well studied, mainly because of the very fine state of the records. This paper seeks to contribute to general issues in emigration by considering data from a limited but important area, the province of Zeeland in The Netherlands, which was one of the principal contributors to Dutch emigration to North America during the nineteenth century. The subject-matter is the motivation of those emigrants, and the analysis concentrates on factors in the place of origin. ‘Pull-factors’ that attract emigrants to their destinations are acknowledged to be important, but are not studied here; a wide range of social, economic, and political variables in Zeeland are computed. Two sets of factors are found to govern the ‘push’ : the first are deprivation factors, such as epidemics, bad harvests, poverty, and persecution. At the same time, it is posited that many emigrants left for precisely the opposite reason :...

Samples from the U.S. passenger lists are used to focus upon the emigrants from England to the U.S.A. during 1841. Probably as many as three-quarters of the English emigrants of that year made the U.S.A. their destination, though only a minority of Irish and Scottish emigrants sailed directly to U.S. ports. The English appear very largely to have spurned the unusual opportunities for assisted emigration to colonies that were available that year. The occupations of male emigrants are compared with occupations reported in the population census of 1841. Farmers, general labourers, and industrial workers, particularly those employed in textile industries, were overrepresented among the emigrants. Yet the movement was not predominantly an exodus of labourers from agriculture, nor from some of the most depressed occupations such as framework knitters and nailers. Various occupational groups are analyzed according to travelling companions, dependants and age, in an effort to distinguish between the more cycle-se...

In Part I of this paper (published in the previous issue) we outlined the major contrasts in demographic experience between almost all areas of Scotland and most of England during the later nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. We also demonstrated the existence of significant regional differences within Scotland. In Part II, interpretations are offered for these various contrasts in experience. Four Scottish regional case studies are examined, each of which shows a different combination of nuptiality, marital fertility and out-migration. In studying each case, stress is laid on the ways in which the prevailing demographic regime, if it is examined as an interrelated whole, can be seen as involving highly appropriate adjustments to the ecological, economic, and institutional contexts of the region. In this approach, ‘innovation’ aspects of the fertility decline are therefore played down; instead, for some parts of the country in particular, continued very high fertility among those who married is seen...

In 1841 and 1842 emigration from the British Isles to the U.S.A. was larger than in any year before the great Irish Famine. Later in the century, depressed economic conditions in the U.S.A. reduced the flow of immigrants. In contrast, the increased immigration of 1841 took place under circumstances of depression in both the U.K. and the U.S.A. In this paper, samples of the passenger manifests of ships arriving in five ports in the United States during 1841 are analysed in the search for more information about the emigrants of that remarkable year. A new and more accurate estimate of immigrants according to nationality has been compiled. Profiles of the immigrants from each part of the British Isles are provided, according to their routes of emigration, the seasonal flow, their ages, sex, travelling companions and occupations. These are compared with the results of previous work on 1831, 1851 and the 1880s. The evidence points to some deepening of the emigration into more disadvantaged sectors of the popul...

Summary On the basis of a re-examination of the different statistical series of post-Famine Irish emigration, this paper finds (1) that the total outflow was larger than the figures for total emigration allow, and (2) that permanent movement to Great Britain was substantially more important, both relatively and absolutely, than is commonly realized.

This is a study of 400 forms of application for assisted migration to New Zealand, received at the New Zealand Migration Office in London from residents of the United Kingdom during two months in 1953. Such a source can give information converning some of the characteristics of would-be emigrants. The results suggest that the commonly accepted characteristics of migrants can be seen at the stage of making the initial application, although there is also the suggestion that the conditions of the scheme themselves constitute a selective factor.

The International Co-ordination Committee for European Migratory Movements has recently made an inquiry into the extent to which agricultural emigrants from particular regions of Italy successfully adapt themselves to conditions in different parts of France. The intimate relation of productivity to personal adjustment of the immigrant to his new surroundings is recognized. Factors found to be important include climate, type of crop, species of draught animal, diet, language and standard of living. The technical rather than the juridical aspect of the agricultural holding is emphasized. The problem of international regional concordances is a complex one, but the results of study of a particular aspect, such as the conditions of agricultural labour, promise to be of considerable value both in the administration of international migration and in the raising of agricultural productivity.

Extract The term ‘cultural assimilation of immigrants’ can convey no adequate idea of the manifold and varied relations which arise from international migration movements between the civilizations of different countries. Generally speaking, these relations develop along two distinct lines. On the one hand, immigrants adapt themselves to the social environment into which they have moved; on the other, they are instrumental in modifying some at least of the features of this same environment. Even the black slaves, pressed into emigration and imported like cattle, were to make a remarkable contribution, directly or through their descendants, to the civilizations of the United States and of Brazil.2

After the abolition of slavery in British colonies in 1834, many thousand labourers left India under indenture for employment on colonial plantations. Their efforts resulted in a striking rise in exports of plantation products. At the end of their indenture, many Indians decided to settle in their new home, especially in British Guiana, Trinidad, Mauritius and Fiji. The paper discusses the districts in India from which labourers were recruited ; the conditions of service under the indenture system, and its advantages and abuses. It discusses the opportunities open to the Indian labourer at the end of his indenture, and the facilities which the government or the planters provided for his settlement on the land. Those who did not settle on the land turned to the professions or trades, often with success. The paper discusses the attitude of the “communities of reception” to the Indian during and after indenture, and his adjustment to a multi-racial society. It analyses his change in outlook as a res...

In general our present aim will be to indicate as far as available data permit: [(1)] How the various ethnic groups in the population grew in the past. [(2)] What the future growth of population would be if determined by present fertility and mortality rates or by probable rates of fertility and mortality which are likely to prevail in the light of the past experience of this and other countries. [(3)] What effect assumed future fertility and mortality will have on the age composition of the different groups. In this discussion possible future immigration or emigration will not be taken into account. An attempt to estimate the extent of future migration would be a hazardous task and its effects are best ignored. Immigration and emigration only affect negligible proportions of the Native Coloured and Asiatic populations. Even in the case of the Europeans immigration has not played an important part in the increase of the population since Union; the excess of births over deaths has been the principal factor furnishing the Union with its rapidly growing white population. For example in the period 1924-34 the net gain (excess of immigration over emigration) of population was but 20580 persons or less than 1780 per year. (excerpt)

Summary Since the end of the war much discussion has taken place on the problem of emigration overseas. In this paper the author examines the potential number of emigrants from different parts of Europe, as well as the obstacles to emigration and immigration which they would have to overcome in order to realize their ambition. The general conclusion is reached that a resumption of migration on the nineteenth-century scale is extremely unlikely and that many of the public statements that have recently been made on the subject do not take full account of the facts.

The more crowded West Indian islands lose citizens each year through emigration, and they are small enough for an appreciable relief of population pressure to be thereby afforded. Each year some of the inhabitants of Java move to Sumatra and elsewhere under official sponsorship, part of the rationale for the policy being the relief of population pressure; a recent definitive study covers the movement in detail.

Summary This study demonstrates that even the complex and much misunderstood demographic transition in Puerto Rico can be understood with the aid of the Theory of Change and Response. Analysis of census and vital statistics in Puerto Rico by decade for the rural and urban sectors reveals a wide range of demographic responses. The 1940's were characterized by rural/urban migration, urban emigration, and moderate reductions in urban marital fertility. There was no decline in rural marital fertility during the 1940's. Contrary to expectations, rural fertility fell very little during the 1950's, and the rate of decline of urban fertility was reduced. The decline in the urban general marital fertility rate was smaller than in the 1940's (15 against 23 per cent), despite a highly publicized development programme and rapid growth in gross national product. This occurred because there was a ready emigration outlet (to the mainland United States), and because emigration was preferred to a reduction of marital fert...

Summary In this study census and vital registration data are used to analyse and compare Roman Catholic fertility in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. While Roman Catholic fertility is relatively high in both areas the birth rate amongst Roman Catholics has been generally higher in Northern Ireland than in the Republic. This difference, which was particularly marked in 1961, can be attributed to the higher levels of marital fertility and nuptiality amongst Northern Irish Catholics. An analysis of average family size amongst couples married between 1946 and 1971 also points to the higher fertility of Northern Irish Catholics. It is argued that the high levels of Catholic fertility in both countries can be attributed to certain characteristics common to both populations, such as the strength of the Roman Catholic Church, high levels of emigration and the relative lack of modernisation and economic development. In addition, it would appear that the differences between Roman Catholic marital ferti...

This paper re-evaluates the currently held view that unstable forms of conjugal unions depress fertility in the British Caribbean. It is shown that previous investigators overlooked the important variable of persistent male shortages at the mating ages caused by heavy male emigration. Fertility trends are observed and the conclusion reached that male emigration (independent variable) has not adversely affected fertility because the 'informal' polygynous character of the mating system acts as an intermediate variable mitigating the effect of the independent variable on fertility. Given these male shortages it is argued that a trend toward greater stability in conjugal relations would not, as previously assumed, result in higher fertility because permanent female celibacy and the average age of first entry into sexual unions for females would rise. Finally, the paper concludes by commenting on a recent discussion concerning the causal relationship between male shortages and the persistence of marital instability in the British Caribbean. The position is taken that both of these conditions are caused by social and economic factors which are not likely to change in the near future.

It was long held that between 1845 and 1880 British trade union leaders were dominated by the dogmas of classical economists. This hypothesis has been challenged on the grounds that the “Junta” ruled but a part of the trade union movement, and that the rest had lost little of its militancy and class loyalty.1 It may be added that this was true, fundamentally, of trade unionism as a whole. The history of strikes and of restrictive practices, the expressed views of trade unionists, their animadversions on political economy, as well as the contemporary failure of other sections of society to recognise this supposed complaisance of the labour movement, further discredit the theory.2 However, the Webbs suggested that the provision of emigration facilities by unions was the purest example of the alleged new outlook, and after several writers had incorporated the idea in their works, recent research has attempted to substantiate it.3 Briefly this thesis claims that union leaders habitually favoured the ...

Summary This paper discusses the immigration of Africans into the British West Indies which began in 1841 and continued until 1867. The course of this movement was closely linked with the Atlantic slave trade. Most of the immigrants were African slaves liberated by the British navy. Moreover, the immigration was greatest during periods when slave importations into Brazil and Cuba were intensified. Early in the movement full government supervision was introduced. The British Government, acting mainly through the Colonial Land and Emigration Commission, supervised the transportation. At first the cost was borne by the receiving colonies. But as part of its programme of assistance to the colonies following the removal of protection on West Indian sugar, the British Government from 1849 defrayed the whole cost of transportation. The total number introduced was only 36,100, or less than one-tenth of the total East Indian immigration. Most of the Africans entered the West Indies before 1853. As a consequence of...

Summary The subject of Polish emigration in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries has not yet been treated systematically, either in its quantitative or its qualitative aspects. Apart from studies devoted to Polish emigration in certain countries the main demographic and economic aspects of this movement remain terra incognita if not terra intacta to the majority of social scientists. It is hoped that the present study will serve as stepping stone for a series of detailed investigations relating to Polish emigration The first part of the paper describes Polish migratory movements as a function of demographic pressure and economic backwardness of the country. The second part contains a brief survey of main centres of Polish emigration: the U.S.A., France and Brazil