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The recurrence and persistence of foot and mouth disease (FMD) could be the consequence of cyclic and massive transportation of calves. For this reason, in South America, vaccination strategies related to livestock dynamic are being promoted. In order to aid the evaluation of such strategies, a method for predicting the risk of transportation of nonvaccinated weaned calves was developed; this method combines expert opinion and empirical evidence using Bayesian estimators. It was applied through Monte Carlo simulation to data of Argentina under four hypothetical vaccination schemes: E1, extended vaccination season of 1/6 of the population of calves each month from July to December without second round vaccination (SRV); E2, extended irregular vaccination from July to December with SRV applied to 70% of the calves resembling the scheme applied in Argentina in 2001; E3, vaccination in November and December without SRV; and E4, vaccination concentrated in November. E1 resulted in probability of transporting non vaccinated calves (tnvc) reaching its maximum in the following year in May with mean=0.0250 and percentile 95% (P95)=0.0404; for the same month tnvc estimates for the other schemes were E2: mean=0.0071; P95=0.0162; E3: mean=0.0017; P95=0.0042 and E4: mean=0.0001; P95=0.0004. Bonferroni multiple comparison for simultaneous assertions for May showed that E4 resulted the best scheme, E1 the worst, and E2 and E3 are intermediate with nonsignificant difference observed between overall (p<0.05). Results were consistent with historical records and quantification for future needs for re-vaccination was made possible. While the ratio "total vaccinated"/"total estimated existences" will give a biased vision of vaccination coverage under the situation of extended vaccination campaigns, a model as the one developed here could allow a more accurate assessment and the design of mitigation plans., (Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

We carried out a longitudinal study of 122 dairy herds in southwest Sweden to investigate relationships of rearing conditions and health with heifer breeding performance and to estimate the incidence of clinical diseases and survival until 1st calving. A total of 3081 animals born in 1998 (47% Swedish Red; 50% Swedish Holstein breed) were followed from birth until calving, culling or death. Information about housing, management, breeds and dates of birth, breeding and calving was obtained from farmers. Diseases were recorded by farmers and veterinarians; antibiotic treatment was used in < 25% of all cases. Median time to breeding was 17.5 months, 64% of all heifers bred by AI conceived at 1st breeding, and median time to calving was 27.6 months. Age at 1st breeding (log-transformed), conception at 1st breeding (binary), and age at 1st calving (log-transformed) were analysed with three mixed models, accounting for clustering by considering random-intercept and random-slope effects at the herd level. Around 40 potential predictors or confounders were recorded and considered for modelling. Time to breeding and calving increase greatly with the time heifers spend grazing, although up to 5 months of grazing before 1st calving appears to be more favourable than no grazing at all. The effect of grazing differs depending on the season of birth. Zero-grazed heifers calve 20% later if exposed to indoor ammonia concentrations > 10 ppm after start of breeding. There is considerable variation between herds in breeding performance, except for conception at 1st breeding-limiting the potential for improving conception by herd measures. Observed total disease incidence rate was 14 per 100 animal-years from 7 months of age to estimated conception and 4.7 per 100 animal-years from conception to calving, with great variation between herds. Infectious diseases were predominant, and diarrhoea, respiratory disease and ringworm were the most common diagnoses. Eight hundred and fifty-three heifers left the study before calving, due to herd exits (incidence risk 0.073%), selling off live (0.061%), spontaneous deaths (0.050%) or slaughter (0.092%).

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effect of diseases on days open (DO), days to first breeding (DFB) and days from first breeding to conception (DFBC) using survival analysis models, and to assess the significance of the sire component and its possible confounding effect. The data consisted of a random sample of 20% of all herds enrolled in Swedish recording system and using 100% artificial insemination with at least 15 Swedish Red and White cows calving in 1991. The follow-up period was from 45 to 145 d after calving. After editing, the data sets had 23,927, 28,197, and 22,089 cows for days open, days to first breeding, and days from first breeding to conception, respectively. The Cox models included parity, calving season, cow milk production and age at first calving as fixed effects, and herd and sire as random effects. Ten disease groups were considered as possible risk factors for the reproductive traits. Disease groups were treated differently if they occurred before or after 45 d postpartum. Diseases occurring in the first 45 d after calving were treated as time-independent covariates and diseases occurring after day 45 were treated as time-dependent covariates for days open and days to first breeding. The percentages of censored cows were 35% for days open, 19% for days to first breeding, and 33% for days from first breeding to conception. Days open increased in cows with dystocia, stillbirth, retained placenta, metritis, or other diseases occurring in the first 45 d after calving, and in cows with metritis, mastitis, or other diseases occurring after 45 d. Days to first breeding increased in cows with stillbirth, retained placenta, milk fever, mastitis, foot and leg problems, or other diseases occurring before day 45, and in cows with metritis, mastitis, foot and leg problems, or other diseases occurring after 45 d. Days to first breeding decreased in cows treated for ovulatory dysfunctions either before or after 45 d. Days from first breeding to conception increased in cows with dystocia, stillbirth, retained placenta, metritis, or ovulatory dysfunctions occurring before first breeding, and in cows with mastitis occurring after first breeding. Although the additive genetic components were significant for all traits considered, the sires did not act as confounders because only a small amount of variability for the traits considered in this study was explained by the sires, with estimated heritabilities of 2% on the logarithmic scale and from 3 to 4% on the real scale.

We investigated the effects of dam-related factors (such as calving performance, milk leakage, diseases, milk production, and somatic-cell count (SCC)) on heart girth at birth and the incidence risk of diarrhoea and respiratory disease during the first 90 days in Swedish dairy calves. The effects of these dam-related factors and environmental and management-related (but not dietary) factors on the calves' growth rate during the first 90 days of life also were analysed. The study used nearly 3,000 heifer calves born in 1998 on 122 farms in the south-west of Sweden. Individual health records were kept by the farmers and visiting project veterinarians. The calf's heart girth was measured at birth and weaning. We used generalised linear mixed models for the size of the calf at birth and growth rate. Variables associated with the heart girth at birth were breed, calving performance, mastitis in the dam in the last 49 days before calving, milk production and parity. Variables associated with the growth rate were breed, calving performance, disease in the calf during its first 90 days of life, heart girth at birth, and housing of calves. The effect of the dam on the relative risk of diarrhoea and/or respiratory disease in the calf was evaluated by a generalised linear mixed model with a logit link. Morbidity in the dam during late pregnancy, retained placenta and SCC were associated with the relative risk of respiratory disease in the calf. None of the explanatory variables (other then breed) was associated with the relative risk of diarrhoea.