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The catalytic depletion of Antarctic stratospheric ozone is linked to anthropogenic emissions of chlorine and bromine. Despite its larger ozone-depleting efficiency, the contribution of ocean-emitted iodine to ozone hole chemistry has not been evaluated, due to the negligible iodine levels previously reported to reach the stratosphere. Based on the recently observed range (0.77 ± 0.1 parts per trillion by volume [pptv]) of stratospheric iodine injection, we use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model to assess the role of iodine in the formation and recent past evolution of the Antarctic ozone hole. Our 1980-2015 simulations indicate that iodine can significantly impact the lower part of the Antarctic ozone hole, contributing, on average, 10% of the lower stratospheric ozone loss during spring (up to 4.2% of the total stratospheric column). We find that the inclusion of iodine advances the beginning and delays the closure stages of the ozone hole by 3 d to 5 d, increasing its area and mass deficit by 11% and 20%, respectively. Despite being present in much smaller amounts, and due to faster gas-phase photochemical reactivation, iodine can dominate (∼73%) the halogen-mediated lower stratospheric ozone loss during summer and early fall, when the heterogeneous reactivation of inorganic chlorine and bromine reservoirs is reduced. The stratospheric ozone destruction caused by 0.77 pptv of iodine over Antarctica is equivalent to that of 3.1 (4.6) pptv of biogenic very short-lived bromocarbons during spring (rest of sunlit period). The relative contribution of iodine to future stratospheric ozone loss is likely to increase as anthropogenic chlorine and bromine emissions decline following the Montreal Protocol., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2022 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Plastic pollution is one of the most pressing environmental and social issues of the 21st century. Recent work has highlighted the atmosphere's role in transporting microplastics to remote locations [S. Allen et al., Nat. Geosci. 12, 339 (2019) and J. Brahney, M. Hallerud, E. Heim, M. Hahnenberger, S. Sukumaran, Science 368, 1257-1260 (2020)]. Here, we use in situ observations of microplastic deposition combined with an atmospheric transport model and optimal estimation techniques to test hypotheses of the most likely sources of atmospheric plastic. Results suggest that atmospheric microplastics in the western United States are primarily derived from secondary re-emission sources including roads (84%), the ocean (11%), and agricultural soil dust (5%). Using our best estimate of plastic sources and modeled transport pathways, most continents were net importers of plastics from the marine environment, underscoring the cumulative role of legacy pollution in the atmospheric burden of plastic. This effort uses high-resolution spatial and temporal deposition data along with several hypothesized emission sources to constrain atmospheric plastic. Akin to global biogeochemical cycles, plastics now spiral around the globe with distinct atmospheric, oceanic, cryospheric, and terrestrial residence times. Though advancements have been made in the manufacture of biodegradable polymers, our data suggest that extant nonbiodegradable polymers will continue to cycle through the earth's systems. Due to limited observations and understanding of the source processes, there remain large uncertainties in the transport, deposition, and source attribution of microplastics. Thus, we prioritize future research directions for understanding the plastic cycle., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.

Earth system models (ESMs) project that global warming suppresses biological productivity in the Subarctic Atlantic Ocean as increasing ocean surface buoyancy suppresses two physical drivers of nutrient supply: vertical mixing and meridional circulation. However, the quantitative sensitivity of productivity to surface buoyancy is uncertain and the relative importance of the physical drivers is unknown. Here, we present a simple predictive theory of how mixing, circulation, and productivity respond to increasing surface buoyancy in 21st-century global warming scenarios. With parameters constrained by observations, the theory suggests that the reduced northward nutrient transport, owing to a slower ocean circulation, explains the majority of the reduced productivity in a warmer climate. The theory also informs present-day biases in a set of ESM simulations as well as the physical underpinnings of their 21st-century projections. Hence, this theoretical understanding can facilitate the development of improved 21st-century projections of marine biogeochemistry and ecosystems., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.

Forests play a major role in the global carbon cycle. Previous studies on the capacity of forests to sequester atmospheric CO 2 have mostly focused on carbon uptake, but the roles of carbon turnover time and its spatiotemporal changes remain poorly understood. Here, we used long-term inventory data (1955 to 2018) from 695 mature forest plots to quantify temporal trends in living vegetation carbon turnover time across tropical, temperate, and cold climate zones, and compared plot data to 8 Earth system models (ESMs). Long-term plots consistently showed decreases in living vegetation carbon turnover time, likely driven by increased tree mortality across all major climate zones. Changes in living vegetation carbon turnover time were negatively correlated with CO 2 enrichment in both forest plot data and ESM simulations. However, plot-based correlations between living vegetation carbon turnover time and climate drivers such as precipitation and temperature diverged from those of ESM simulations. Our analyses suggest that forest carbon sinks are likely to be constrained by a decrease in living vegetation carbon turnover time, and accurate projections of forest carbon sink dynamics will require an improved representation of tree mortality processes and their sensitivity to climate in ESMs., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2019 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) by microorganisms associated with cryptogamic covers, such as cyanolichens and bryophytes, is a primary source of fixed nitrogen in pristine, high-latitude ecosystems. On land, low molybdenum (Mo) availability has been shown to limit BNF by the most common form of nitrogenase (Nase), which requires Mo in its active site. Vanadium (V) and iron-only Nases have been suggested as viable alternatives to countering Mo limitation of BNF; however, field data supporting this long-standing hypothesis have been lacking. Here, we elucidate the contribution of vanadium nitrogenase (V-Nase) to BNF by cyanolichens across a 600-km latitudinal transect in eastern boreal forests of North America. Widespread V-Nase activity was detected (∼15-50% of total BNF rates), with most of the activity found in the northern part of the transect. We observed a 3-fold increase of V-Nase contribution during the 20-wk growing season. By including the contribution of V-Nase to BNF, estimates of new N input by cyanolichens increase by up to 30%. We find that variability in V-based BNF is strongly related to Mo availability, and we identify a Mo threshold of ∼250 ng·g lichen -1 for the onset of V-based BNF. Our results provide compelling ecosystem-scale evidence for the use of the V-Nase as a surrogate enzyme that contributes to BNF when Mo is limiting. Given widespread findings of terrestrial Mo limitation, including the carbon-rich circumboreal belt where global change is most rapid, additional consideration of V-based BNF is required in experimental and modeling studies of terrestrial biogeochemistry., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2019 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Dimethylsulfide (DMS), a gas produced by marine microbial food webs, promotes aerosol formation in pristine atmospheres, altering cloud radiative forcing and precipitation. Recent studies suggest that DMS controls aerosol formation in the summertime Arctic atmosphere and call for an assessment of pan-Arctic DMS emission (EDMS) in a context of dramatic ecosystem changes. Using a remote sensing algorithm, we show that summertime EDMS from ice-free waters increased at a mean rate of 13.3 ± 6.7 Gg S decade -1 (∼33% decade -1 ) north of 70°N between 1998 and 2016. This trend, mostly explained by the reduction in sea-ice extent, is consistent with independent atmospheric measurements showing an increasing trend of methane sulfonic acid, a DMS oxidation product. Extrapolation to an ice-free Arctic summer could imply a 2.4-fold (±1.2) increase in EDMS compared to present emission. However, unexpected regime shifts in Arctic geo- and ecosystems could result in future EDMS departure from the predicted range. Superimposed on the positive trend, EDMS shows substantial interannual changes and nonmonotonic multiyear trends, reflecting the interplay between physical forcing, ice retreat patterns, and phytoplankton productivity. Our results provide key constraints to determine whether increasing marine sulfur emissions, and resulting aerosol-cloud interactions, will moderate or accelerate Arctic warming in the context of sea-ice retreat and increasing low-level cloud cover., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

With the pending withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Climate Accord, cities are now leading US actions toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Implementing effective mitigation strategies requires the ability to measure and track emissions over time and at various scales. We report CO 2 emissions in the Boston, MA, urban region from September 2013 to December 2014 based on atmospheric observations in an inverse model framework. Continuous atmospheric measurements of CO 2 from five sites in and around Boston were combined with a high-resolution bottom-up CO 2 emission inventory and a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to determine regional emissions. Our model-measurement framework incorporates emissions estimates from submodels for both anthropogenic and biological CO 2 fluxes, and development of a CO 2 concentration curtain at the boundary of the study region based on a combination of tower measurements and modeled vertical concentration gradients. We demonstrate that an emission inventory with high spatial and temporal resolution and the inclusion of urban biological fluxes are both essential to accurately modeling annual CO 2 fluxes using surface measurement networks. We calculated annual average emissions in the Boston region of 0.92 kg C·m -2 ·y -1 (95% confidence interval: 0.79 to 1.06), which is 14% higher than the Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions System inventory. Based on the capability of the model-measurement approach demonstrated here, our framework should be able to detect changes in CO 2 emissions of greater than 18%, providing stakeholders with critical information to assess mitigation efforts in Boston and surrounding areas., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to "well below 2 °C." Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high-impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (∼50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three-lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term (<2050) and in the long term (2100): the carbon neutral (CN) lever to achieve zero net emissions of CO 2 , the super pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO 2 blanket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO 2 before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO 2 emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

A decrease in the 13 C/ 12 C ratio of atmospheric CO 2 has been documented by direct observations since 1978 and from ice core measurements since the industrial revolution. This decrease, known as the 13 C-Suess effect, is driven primarily by the input of fossil fuel-derived CO 2 but is also sensitive to land and ocean carbon cycling and uptake. Using updated records, we show that no plausible combination of sources and sinks of CO 2 from fossil fuel, land, and oceans can explain the observed 13 C-Suess effect unless an increase has occurred in the 13 C/ 12 C isotopic discrimination of land photosynthesis. A trend toward greater discrimination under higher CO 2 levels is broadly consistent with tree ring studies over the past century, with field and chamber experiments, and with geological records of C 3 plants at times of altered atmospheric CO 2 , but increasing discrimination has not previously been included in studies of long-term atmospheric 13 C/ 12 C measurements. We further show that the inferred discrimination increase of 0.014 ± 0.007‰ ppm -1 is largely explained by photorespiratory and mesophyll effects. This result implies that, at the global scale, land plants have regulated their stomatal conductance so as to allow the CO 2 partial pressure within stomatal cavities and their intrinsic water use efficiency to increase in nearly constant proportion to the rise in atmospheric CO 2 concentration., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Climate-induced forest mortality is being increasingly observed throughout the globe. Alarmingly, it is expected to exacerbate under climate change due to shifting precipitation patterns and rising air temperature. However, the impact of concomitant changes in atmospheric humidity and CO 2 concentration through their influence on stomatal kinetics remains a subject of debate and inquiry. By using a dynamic soil-plant-atmosphere model, mortality risks associated with hydraulic failure and stomatal closure for 13 temperate and tropical forest biomes across the globe are analyzed. The mortality risk is evaluated in response to both individual and combined changes in precipitation amounts and their seasonal distribution, mean air temperature, specific humidity, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Model results show that the risk is predicted to significantly increase due to changes in precipitation and air temperature regime for the period 2050-2069. However, this increase may largely get alleviated by concurrent increases in atmospheric specific humidity and CO 2 concentration. The increase in mortality risk is expected to be higher for needleleaf forests than for broadleaf forests, as a result of disparity in hydraulic traits. These findings will facilitate decisions about intervention and management of different forest types under changing climate., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest statement: Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe and A.P. were coauthors of a 2015 paper [Feng X, Porporato A, Rodriguez-Iturbe I (2015) Stochastic soil water balance under seasonal climates. Proc R Soc A 471: 20140623].

We develop a statistical model to predict June-July-August (JJA) daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in the eastern United States based on large-scale climate patterns during the previous spring. We find that anomalously high JJA ozone in the East is correlated with these springtime patterns: warm tropical Atlantic and cold northeast Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), as well as positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Hawaii and negative SLP anomalies over the Atlantic and North America. We then develop a linear regression model to predict JJA MDA8 ozone from 1980 to 2013, using the identified SST and SLP patterns from the previous spring. The model explains ∼45% of the variability in JJA MDA8 ozone concentrations and ∼30% variability in the number of JJA ozone episodes (>70 ppbv) when averaged over the eastern United States. This seasonal predictability results from large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions. Warm tropical Atlantic SSTs can trigger diabatic heating in the atmosphere and influence the extratropical climate through stationary wave propagation, leading to greater subsidence, less precipitation, and higher temperatures in the East, which increases surface ozone concentrations there. Cooler SSTs in the northeast Pacific are also associated with more summertime heatwaves and high ozone in the East. On average, models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project fail to capture the influence of this ocean-atmosphere interaction on temperatures in the eastern United States, implying that such models would have difficulty simulating the interannual variability of surface ozone in this region.

The magnitude of aerosol radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic emissions depends on the baseline state of the atmosphere under pristine preindustrial conditions. Measurements show that particle formation in atmospheric conditions can occur solely from biogenic vapors. Here, we evaluate the potential effect of this source of particles on preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations and aerosol-cloud radiative forcing over the industrial period. Model simulations show that the pure biogenic particle formation mechanism has a much larger relative effect on CCN concentrations in the preindustrial atmosphere than in the present atmosphere because of the lower aerosol concentrations. Consequently, preindustrial cloud albedo is increased more than under present day conditions, and therefore the cooling forcing of anthropogenic aerosols is reduced. The mechanism increases CCN concentrations by 20-100% over a large fraction of the preindustrial lower atmosphere, and the magnitude of annual global mean radiative forcing caused by changes of cloud albedo since 1750 is reduced by [Formula: see text] (27%) to [Formula: see text] Model uncertainties, relatively slow formation rates, and limited available ambient measurements make it difficult to establish the significance of a mechanism that has its dominant effect under preindustrial conditions. Our simulations predict more particle formation in the Amazon than is observed. However, the first observation of pure organic nucleation has now been reported for the free troposphere. Given the potentially significant effect on anthropogenic forcing, effort should be made to better understand such naturally driven aerosol processes., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

The progressive oxygenation of the Earth's atmosphere was pivotal to the evolution of life, but the puzzle of when and how atmospheric oxygen (O2) first approached modern levels (∼21%) remains unresolved. Redox proxy data indicate the deep oceans were oxygenated during 435-392 Ma, and the appearance of fossil charcoal indicates O2 >15-17% by 420-400 Ma. However, existing models have failed to predict oxygenation at this time. Here we show that the earliest plants, which colonized the land surface from ∼470 Ma onward, were responsible for this mid-Paleozoic oxygenation event, through greatly increasing global organic carbon burial-the net long-term source of O2 We use a trait-based ecophysiological model to predict that cryptogamic vegetation cover could have achieved ∼30% of today's global terrestrial net primary productivity by ∼445 Ma. Data from modern bryophytes suggests this plentiful early plant material had a much higher molar C:P ratio (∼2,000) than marine biomass (∼100), such that a given weathering flux of phosphorus could support more organic carbon burial. Furthermore, recent experiments suggest that early plants selectively increased the flux of phosphorus (relative to alkalinity) weathered from rocks. Combining these effects in a model of long-term biogeochemical cycling, we reproduce a sustained +2‰ increase in the carbonate carbon isotope (δ(13)C) record by ∼445 Ma, and predict a corresponding rise in O2 to present levels by 420-400 Ma, consistent with geochemical data. This oxygen rise represents a permanent shift in regulatory regime to one where fire-mediated negative feedbacks stabilize high O2 levels., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Considerable geological, geochemical, paleontological, and isotopic evidence exists to support the hypothesis that the atmospheric oxygen level rose from an Archean baseline of essentially zero to modern values in two steps roughly 2.3 billion and 0.8-0.6 billion years ago (Ga). The first step in oxygen content, the Great Oxidation Event, was likely a threshold response to diminishing reductant input from Earth's interior. Here I provide an alternative to previous suggestions that the second step was the result of the establishment of the first terrestrial fungal-lichen ecosystems. The consumption of oxygen by aerobes respiring this new source of organic matter in soils would have necessitated an increase in the atmospheric oxygen content to compensate for the reduced delivery of oxygen to the weathering environment below the organic-rich upper soil layer. Support for this hypothesis comes from the observed spread toward more negative carbon isotope compositions in Neoproterozoic (1.0-0.542 Ga) and younger limestones altered under the influence of ground waters, and the positive correlation between the carbon isotope composition and oxygen content of modern ground waters in contact with limestones. Thus, the greening of the planet's land surfaces forced the atmospheric oxygen level to a new, higher equilibrium state.

Water vapor in the upper troposphere strongly regulates the strength of water-vapor feedback, which is the primary process for amplifying the response of the climate system to external radiative forcings. Monitoring changes in upper-tropospheric water vapor and scrutinizing the causes of such changes are therefore of great importance for establishing the credibility of model projections of past and future climates. Here, we use coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations under different climate-forcing scenarios to investigate satellite-observed changes in global-mean upper-tropospheric water vapor. Our analysis demonstrates that the upper-tropospheric moistening observed over the period 1979-2005 cannot be explained by natural causes and results principally from an anthropogenic warming of the climate. By attributing the observed increase directly to human activities, this study verifies the presence of the largest known feedback mechanism for amplifying anthropogenic climate change.

The mass extinction at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary, ∼ 66 Ma, is thought to be caused by the impact of an asteroid at Chicxulub, present-day Mexico. Although the precise mechanisms that led to this mass extinction remain enigmatic, most postulated scenarios involve a short-lived global cooling, a so-called "impact winter" phase. Here we document a major decline in sea surface temperature during the first months to decades following the impact event, using TEX86 paleothermometry of sediments from the Brazos River section, Texas. We interpret this cold spell to reflect, to our knowledge, the first direct evidence for the effects of the formation of dust and aerosols by the impact and their injection in the stratosphere, blocking incoming solar radiation. This impact winter was likely a major driver of mass extinction because of the resulting global decimation of marine and continental photosynthesis.

The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project offers a framework to compare climate impact projections in different sectors and at different scales. Consistent climate and socio-economic input data provide the basis for a cross-sectoral integration of impact projections. The project is designed to enable quantitative synthesis of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. This report briefly outlines the objectives and framework of the first, fast-tracked phase of Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, based on global impact models, and provides an overview of the participating models, input data, and scenario set-up.

In the troposphere, methanol (CH3OH) is present ubiquitously and second in abundance among organic gases after methane. In the surface ocean, methanol represents a supply of energy and carbon for marine microbes. Here we report direct measurements of air-sea methanol transfer along a ∼10,000-km north-south transect of the Atlantic. The flux of methanol was consistently from the atmosphere to the ocean. Constrained by the aerodynamic limit and measured rate of air-sea sensible heat exchange, methanol transfer resembles a one-way depositional process, which suggests dissolved methanol concentrations near the water surface that are lower than what were measured at ∼5 m depth, for reasons currently unknown. We estimate the global oceanic uptake of methanol and examine the lifetimes of this compound in the lower atmosphere and upper ocean with respect to gas exchange. We also constrain the molecular diffusional resistance above the ocean surface-an important term for improving air-sea gas exchange models.

This study quantitatively estimates the spatial distribution of anthropogenic methane sources in the United States by combining comprehensive atmospheric methane observations, extensive spatial datasets, and a high-resolution atmospheric transport model. Results show that current inventories from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research underestimate methane emissions nationally by a factor of ∼1.5 and ∼1.7, respectively. Our study indicates that emissions due to ruminants and manure are up to twice the magnitude of existing inventories. In addition, the discrepancy in methane source estimates is particularly pronounced in the south-central United States, where we find total emissions are ∼2.7 times greater than in most inventories and account for 24 ± 3% of national emissions. The spatial patterns of our emission fluxes and observed methane-propane correlations indicate that fossil fuel extraction and refining are major contributors (45 ± 13%) in the south-central United States. This result suggests that regional methane emissions due to fossil fuel extraction and processing could be 4.9 ± 2.6 times larger than in EDGAR, the most comprehensive global methane inventory. These results cast doubt on the US EPA's recent decision to downscale its estimate of national natural gas emissions by 25-30%. Overall, we conclude that methane emissions associated with both the animal husbandry and fossil fuel industries have larger greenhouse gas impacts than indicated by existing inventories.

We report observations of stratospheric CO2 that reveal surprisingly large anomalous enrichments in (17)O that vary systematically with latitude, altitude, and season. The triple isotope slopes reached 1.95 ± 0.05(1σ) in the middle stratosphere and 2.22 ± 0.07 in the Arctic vortex versus 1.71 ± 0.03 from previous observations and a remarkable factor of 4 larger than the mass-dependent value of 0.52. Kinetics modeling of laboratory measurements of photochemical ozone-CO2 isotope exchange demonstrates that non-mass-dependent isotope effects in ozone formation alone quantitatively account for the (17)O anomaly in CO2 in the laboratory, resolving long-standing discrepancies between models and laboratory measurements. Model sensitivities to hypothetical mass-dependent isotope effects in reactions involving O3, O((1)D), or CO2 and to an empirically derived temperature dependence of the anomalous kinetic isotope effects in ozone formation then provide a conceptual framework for understanding the differences in the isotopic composition and the triple isotope slopes between the laboratory and the stratosphere and between different regions of the stratosphere. This understanding in turn provides a firmer foundation for the diverse biogeochemical and paleoclimate applications of (17)O anomalies in tropospheric CO2, O2, mineral sulfates, and fossil bones and teeth, which all derive from stratospheric CO2.

Natural climate variation, such as that caused by volcanoes, is the basis for identifying anthropogenic climate change. However, knowledge of the history of volcanic activity is inadequate, particularly concerning the explosivity of specific events. Some material is deposited in ice cores, but the concentration of glacial sulfate does not distinguish between tropospheric and stratospheric eruptions. Stable sulfur isotope abundances contain additional information, and recent studies show a correlation between volcanic plumes that reach the stratosphere and mass-independent anomalies in sulfur isotopes in glacial sulfate. We describe a mechanism, photoexcitation of SO2, that links the two, yielding a useful metric of the explosivity of historic volcanic events. A plume model of S(IV) to S(VI) conversion was constructed including photochemistry, entrainment of background air, and sulfate deposition. Isotopologue-specific photoexcitation rates were calculated based on the UV absorption cross-sections of (32)SO2, (33)SO2, (34)SO2, and (36)SO2 from 250 to 320 nm. The model shows that UV photoexcitation is enhanced with altitude, whereas mass-dependent oxidation, such as SO2 + OH, is suppressed by in situ plume chemistry, allowing the production and preservation of a mass-independent sulfur isotope anomaly in the sulfate product. The model accounts for the amplitude, phases, and time development of Δ(33)S/δ(34)S and Δ(36)S/Δ(33)S found in glacial samples. We are able to identify the process controlling mass-independent sulfur isotope anomalies in the modern atmosphere. This mechanism is the basis of identifying the magnitude of historic volcanic events.

Long-term observations of the reactive chemical composition of the tropical marine boundary layer (MBL) are rare, despite its crucial role for the chemical stability of the atmosphere. Recent observations of reactive bromine species in the tropical MBL showed unexpectedly high levels that could potentially have an impact on the ozone budget. Uncertainties in the ozone budget are amplified by our poor understanding of the fate of NOx (= NO + NO2), particularly the importance of nighttime chemical NOx sinks. Here, we present year-round observations of the multiisotopic composition of atmospheric nitrate in the tropical MBL at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory. We show that the observed oxygen isotope ratios of nitrate are compatible with nitrate formation chemistry, which includes the BrNO3 sink at a level of ca. 20 ± 10% of nitrate formation pathways. The results also suggest that the N2O5 pathway is a negligible NOx sink in this environment. Observations further indicate a possible link between the NO2/NOx ratio and the nitrogen isotopic content of nitrate in this low NOx environment, possibly reflecting the seasonal change in the photochemical equilibrium among NOx species. This study demonstrates the relevance of using the stable isotopes of oxygen and nitrogen of atmospheric nitrate in association with concentration measurements to identify and constrain chemical processes occurring in the MBL.

Combined measurements of water isotopologues of a snow pit at Vostok over the past 60 y reveal a unique signature that cannot be explained only by climatic features as usually done. Comparisons of the data using a general circulation model and a simpler isotopic distillation model reveal a stratospheric signature in the (17)O-excess record at Vostok. Our data and theoretical considerations indicate that mass-independent fractionation imprints the isotopic signature of stratospheric water vapor, which may allow for a distinction between stratospheric and tropospheric influences at remote East Antarctic sites.

Signatures of mass-independent isotope fractionation (MIF) are found in the oxygen ((16)O,(17)O,(18)O) and sulfur ((32)S, (33)S, (34)S, (36)S) isotope systems and serve as important tracers of past and present atmospheric processes. These unique isotope signatures signify the breakdown of the traditional theory of isotope fractionation, but the physical chemistry of these isotope effects remains poorly understood. We report the production of large sulfur isotope MIF, with Δ(33)S up to 78‰ and Δ(36)S up to 110‰, from the broadband excitation of SO2 in the 250-350-nm absorption region. Acetylene is used to selectively trap the triplet-state SO2 ( (3)B1), which results from intersystem crossing from the excited singlet ( (1)A2/ (1)B1) states. The observed MIF signature differs considerably from that predicted by isotopologue-specific absorption cross-sections of SO2 and is insensitive to the wavelength region of excitation (above or below 300 nm), suggesting that the MIF originates not from the initial excitation of SO2 to the singlet states but from an isotope selective spin-orbit interaction between the singlet ( (1)A2/ (1)B1) and triplet ( (3)B1) manifolds. Calculations based on high-level potential energy surfaces of the multiple excited states show a considerable lifetime anomaly for (33)SO2 and (36)SO2 for the low vibrational levels of the (1)A2 state. These results demonstrate that the isotope selectivity of accidental near-resonance interactions between states is of critical importance in understanding the origin of MIF in photochemical systems.

Theoretical treatment of ozone forming reaction is developed within the framework of mixed quantum/classical dynamics. Formation and stabilization steps of the energy transfer mechanism are both studied, which allows simultaneous capture of the delta zero-point energy effect and η-effect and identification of the molecular level origin of mass-independent isotope fractionation. The central role belongs to scattering resonances; dependence of their lifetimes on rotational excitation, asymmetry; and connection of their vibrational wave functions to two different reaction channels. Calculations, performed within the dimensionally reduced model of ozone, are in semiquantitative agreement with experiment.

We present a first principles study of the carbon dioxide (CO2) photodissociation process in the 150- to 210-nm wavelength range, with emphasis on photolysis below the carbon monoxide + singlet channel threshold at ~167 nm. The calculations reproduce experimental absorption cross-sections at a resolution of ~0.5 nm without scaling the intensity. The observed structure in the 150- to 210-nm range is caused by excitation of bending motion supported by the deep wells at bent geometries in the and potential energy surfaces. Predissociation below the singlet channel threshold occurs via spin-orbit coupling to nearby repulsive triplet states. Carbon monoxide vibrational and rotational state distributions in the singlet channel as well as the triplet channel for excitation at 157 nm satisfactorily reproduce experimental data. The cross-sections of individual CO2 isotopologues ((12)C(16)O2, (12)C(17)O(16)O, (12)C(18)O(16)O, (13)C(16)O2, and (13)C(18)O(16)O) are calculated, demonstrating that strong isotopic fractionation will occur as a function of wavelength. The calculations provide accurate, detailed insight into CO2 photoabsorption and dissociation dynamics, and greatly extend knowledge of the temperature dependence of the cross-section to cover the range from 0 to 400 K that is useful for calculations of propagation of stellar light in planetary atmospheres. The model is also relevant for the interpretation of laboratory experiments on mass-independent isotopic fractionation. Finally, the model shows that the mass-independent fractionation observed in a series of Hg lamp experiments is not a result of hyperfine interactions making predissociation of (17)O containing CO2 more efficient.

Atmospheric aerosols formed by nucleation of vapors affect radiative forcing and therefore climate. However, the underlying mechanisms of nucleation remain unclear, particularly the involvement of organic compounds. Here, we present high-resolution mass spectra of ion clusters observed during new particle formation experiments performed at the Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets chamber at the European Organization for Nuclear Research. The experiments involved sulfuric acid vapor and different stabilizing species, including ammonia and dimethylamine, as well as oxidation products of pinanediol, a surrogate for organic vapors formed from monoterpenes. A striking resemblance is revealed between the mass spectra from the chamber experiments with oxidized organics and ambient data obtained during new particle formation events at the Hyytiälä boreal forest research station. We observe that large oxidized organic compounds, arising from the oxidation of monoterpenes, cluster directly with single sulfuric acid molecules and then form growing clusters of one to three sulfuric acid molecules plus one to four oxidized organics. Most of these organic compounds retain 10 carbon atoms, and some of them are remarkably highly oxidized (oxygen-to-carbon ratios up to 1.2). The average degree of oxygenation of the organic compounds decreases while the clusters are growing. Our measurements therefore connect oxidized organics directly, and in detail, with the very first steps of new particle formation and their growth between 1 and 2 nm in a controlled environment. Thus, they confirm that oxidized organics are involved in both the formation and growth of particles under ambient conditions.

The Paleocene/Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) and associated carbon isotope excursion (CIE) are often touted as the best geologic analog for the current anthropogenic rise in pCO2. However, a causal mechanism for the PETM CIE remains unidentified because of large uncertainties in the duration of the CIE's onset. Here, we report on a sequence of rhythmic sedimentary couplets comprising the Paleocene/Eocene Marlboro Clay (Salisbury Embayment). These couplets have corresponding δ(18)O cycles that imply a climatic origin. Seasonal insolation is the only regular climate cycle that can plausibly account for δ(18)O amplitudes and layer counts. High-resolution stable isotope records show 3.5‰ δ(13)C decrease over 13 couplets defining the CIE onset, which requires a large, instantaneous release of (13)C-depleted carbon. During the CIE, a clear δ(13)C gradient developed on the shelf with the largest excursions in shallowest waters, indicating atmospheric δ(13)C decreased by ~20‰. Our observations and revised release rate are consistent with an atmospheric perturbation of 3,000-gigatons of carbon (GtC).

Previous studies have highlighted the occurrence and intensity of El Niño-Southern Oscillation as important drivers of the interannual variability of the atmospheric CO2 growth rate, but the underlying biogeophysical mechanisms governing such connections remain unclear. Here we show a strong and persistent coupling (r(2) ≈ 0.50) between interannual variations of the CO2 growth rate and tropical land-surface air temperature during 1959 to 2011, with a 1 °C tropical temperature anomaly leading to a 3.5 ± 0.6 Petagrams of carbon per year (PgC/y) CO2 growth-rate anomaly on average. Analysis of simulation results from Dynamic Global Vegetation Models suggests that this temperature-CO2 coupling is contributed mainly by the additive responses of heterotrophic respiration (Rh) and net primary production (NPP) to temperature variations in tropical ecosystems. However, we find a weaker and less consistent (r(2) ≈ 0.25) interannual coupling between CO2 growth rate and tropical land precipitation than diagnosed from the Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, likely resulting from the subtractive responses of tropical Rh and NPP to precipitation anomalies that partly offset each other in the net ecosystem exchange (i.e., net ecosystem exchange ≈ Rh - NPP). Variations in other climate variables (e.g., large-scale cloudiness) and natural disturbances (e.g., volcanic eruptions) may induce transient reductions in the temperature-CO2 coupling, but the relationship is robust during the past 50 y and shows full recovery within a few years after any such major variability event. Therefore, it provides an important diagnostic tool for improved understanding of the contemporary and future global carbon cycle.

Organic aerosols are ubiquitous in the atmosphere and play a central role in climate, air quality, and public health. The aerosol size distribution is key in determining its optical properties and cloud condensation nucleus activity. The dominant portion of organic aerosol is formed through gas-phase oxidation of volatile organic compounds, so-called secondary organic aerosols (SOAs). Typical experimental measurements of SOA formation include total SOA mass and atomic oxygen-to-carbon ratio. These measurements, alone, are generally insufficient to reveal the extent to which condensed-phase reactions occur in conjunction with the multigeneration gas-phase photooxidation. Combining laboratory chamber experiments and kinetic gas-particle modeling for the dodecane SOA system, here we show that the presence of particle-phase chemistry is reflected in the evolution of the SOA size distribution as well as its mass concentration. Particle-phase reactions are predicted to occur mainly at the particle surface, and the reaction products contribute more than half of the SOA mass. Chamber photooxidation with a midexperiment aldehyde injection confirms that heterogeneous reaction of aldehydes with organic hydroperoxides forming peroxyhemiacetals can lead to a large increase in SOA mass. Although experiments need to be conducted with other SOA precursor hydrocarbons, current results demonstrate coupling between particle-phase chemistry and size distribution dynamics in the formation of SOAs, thereby opening up an avenue for analysis of the SOA formation process.

Predicting the impact of ongoing anthropogenic CO2 emissions on calcifying marine organisms is complex, owing to the synergy between direct changes (acidification) and indirect changes through climate change (e.g., warming, changes in ocean circulation, and deoxygenation). Laboratory experiments, particularly on longer-lived organisms, tend to be too short to reveal the potential of organisms to acclimatize, adapt, or evolve and usually do not incorporate multiple stressors. We studied two examples of rapid carbon release in the geological record, Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (∼53.2 Ma) and the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ∼55.5 Ma), the best analogs over the last 65 Ma for future ocean acidification related to high atmospheric CO2 levels. We use benthic foraminifers, which suffered severe extinction during the PETM, as a model group. Using synchrotron radiation X-ray tomographic microscopy, we reconstruct the calcification response of survivor species and find, contrary to expectations, that calcification significantly increased during the PETM. In contrast, there was no significant response to the smaller Eocene Thermal Maximum 2, which was associated with a minor change in diversity only. These observations suggest that there is a response threshold for extinction and calcification response, while highlighting the utility of the geological record in helping constrain the sensitivity of biotic response to environmental change.

Isoprene is a substantial contributor to the global secondary organic aerosol (SOA) burden, with implications for public health and the climate system. The mechanism by which isoprene-derived SOA is formed and the influence of environmental conditions, however, remain unclear. We present evidence from controlled smog chamber experiments and field measurements that in the presence of high levels of nitrogen oxides (NO(x) = NO + NO2) typical of urban atmospheres, 2-methyloxirane-2-carboxylic acid (methacrylic acid epoxide, MAE) is a precursor to known isoprene-derived SOA tracers, and ultimately to SOA. We propose that MAE arises from decomposition of the OH adduct of methacryloylperoxynitrate (MPAN). This hypothesis is supported by the similarity of SOA constituents derived from MAE to those from photooxidation of isoprene, methacrolein, and MPAN under high-NOx conditions. Strong support is further derived from computational chemistry calculations and Community Multiscale Air Quality model simulations, yielding predictions consistent with field observations. Field measurements taken in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, considered along with the modeling results indicate the atmospheric significance and relevance of MAE chemistry across the United States, especially in urban areas heavily impacted by isoprene emissions. Identification of MAE implies a major role of atmospheric epoxides in forming SOA from isoprene photooxidation. Updating current atmospheric modeling frameworks with MAE chemistry could improve the way that SOA has been attributed to isoprene based on ambient tracer measurements, and lead to SOA parameterizations that better capture the dependency of yield on NO(x).

The continuous increase of nitrous oxide (N2O) abundance in the atmosphere is a global concern. Multiple pathways of N2O production occur in soil, but their significance and dependence on oxygen (O2) availability and nitrogen (N) fertilizer source are poorly understood. We examined N2O and nitric oxide (NO) production under 21%, 3%, 1%, 0.5%, and 0% (vol/vol) O2 concentrations following urea or ammonium sulfate [(NH4)2SO4] additions in loam, clay loam, and sandy loam soils that also contained ample nitrate. The contribution of the ammonia (NH3) oxidation pathways (nitrifier nitrification, nitrifier denitrification, and nitrification-coupled denitrification) and heterotrophic denitrification (HD) to N2O production was determined in 36-h incubations in microcosms by (15)N-(18)O isotope and NH3 oxidation inhibition (by 0.01% acetylene) methods. Nitrous oxide and NO production via NH3 oxidation pathways increased as O2 concentrations decreased from 21% to 0.5%. At low (0.5% and 3%) O2 concentrations, nitrifier denitrification contributed between 34% and 66%, and HD between 34% and 50% of total N2O production. Heterotrophic denitrification was responsible for all N2O production at 0% O2. Nitrifier denitrification was the main source of N2O production from ammonical fertilizer under low O2 concentrations with urea producing more N2O than (NH4)2SO4 additions. These findings challenge established thought attributing N2O emissions from soils with high water content to HD due to presumably low O2 availability. Our results imply that management practices that increase soil aeration, e.g., reducing compaction and enhancing soil structure, together with careful selection of fertilizer sources and/or nitrification inhibitors, could decrease N2O production in agricultural soils.

The partial pressure of oxygen in Earth's atmosphere has increased dramatically through time, and this increase is thought to have occurred in two rapid steps at both ends of the Proterozoic Eon (∼2.5-0.543 Ga). However, the trajectory and mechanisms of Earth's oxygenation are still poorly constrained, and little is known regarding attendant changes in ocean ventilation and seafloor redox. We have a particularly poor understanding of ocean chemistry during the mid-Proterozoic (∼1.8-0.8 Ga). Given the coupling between redox-sensitive trace element cycles and planktonic productivity, various models for mid-Proterozoic ocean chemistry imply different effects on the biogeochemical cycling of major and trace nutrients, with potential ecological constraints on emerging eukaryotic life. Here, we exploit the differing redox behavior of molybdenum and chromium to provide constraints on seafloor redox evolution by coupling a large database of sedimentary metal enrichments to a mass balance model that includes spatially variant metal burial rates. We find that the metal enrichment record implies a Proterozoic deep ocean characterized by pervasive anoxia relative to the Phanerozoic (at least ∼30-40% of modern seafloor area) but a relatively small extent of euxinic (anoxic and sulfidic) seafloor (less than ∼1-10% of modern seafloor area). Our model suggests that the oceanic Mo reservoir is extremely sensitive to perturbations in the extent of sulfidic seafloor and that the record of Mo and chromium enrichments through time is consistent with the possibility of a Mo-N colimited marine biosphere during many periods of Earth's history.

Leaf-wax n-alkanes (2)H/(1)H ratios are widely used as a proxy in climate reconstruction. Although the broad nature of the relationship between n-alkanes δ(2)H values and climate is appreciated, the quantitative details of the proxy remain elusive. To examine these details under natural environmental conditions, we studied a riparian broadleaf angiosperm species, Populus angustifolia, growing on water with a constant δ(2)H value and monitored the δ(2)H values of leaf-wax n-alkanes and of stem, leaf, stream, and atmospheric waters throughout the entire growing season. Here we found the δ(2)H values of leaf-wax n-alkanes recorded only a 2-wk period during leaf flush and did not vary for the 19 weeks thereafter when leaves remained active. We found δ(2)H values of leaf-wax n-alkanes of P. angustifolia record conditions earlier in the season rather than fully integrating the entire growing season. Using these data, we modeled precipitation δ(2)H values during the time of wax synthesis. We observed that the isotope ratios of this precipitation generally were (2)H-enriched compared with mean annual precipitation. This model provides a mechanistic basis of the often-observed (2)H-enrichment from the expected fractionation values in studies of broadleaf angiosperm leaf-wax δ(2)H. In addition, these findings may have implications for the spatial and temporal uses of n-alkane δ(2)H values in paleoapplications; when both plant community and growth form are known, this study allows the isolation of the precipitation dynamics of individual periods of the growing season.

Limitations in current capabilities to constrain aerosols adversely impact atmospheric simulations. Typically, aerosol burdens within models are constrained employing satellite aerosol optical properties, which are not available under cloudy conditions. Here we set the first steps to overcome the long-standing limitation that aerosols cannot be constrained using satellite remote sensing under cloudy conditions. We introduce a unique data assimilation method that uses cloud droplet number (N(d)) retrievals to improve predicted below-cloud aerosol mass and number concentrations. The assimilation, which uses an adjoint aerosol activation parameterization, improves agreement with independent N(d) observations and with in situ aerosol measurements below shallow cumulus clouds. The impacts of a single assimilation on aerosol and cloud forecasts extend beyond 24 h. Unlike previous methods, this technique can directly improve predictions of near-surface fine mode aerosols responsible for human health impacts and low-cloud radiative forcing. Better constrained aerosol distributions will help improve health effects studies, atmospheric emissions estimates, and air-quality, weather, and climate predictions.

Oceanic dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) is the precursor to dimethylsulfide (DMS), which plays a role in climate regulation through transformation to methanesulfonic acid (MSA) and non-seasalt sulfate (NSS-SO(4)(2-)) aerosols. Here, we report measurements of the abundance and sulfur isotope compositions of DMSP from one phytoplankton species (Prorocentrum minimum) and five intertidal macroalgal species (Ulva lactuca, Ulva linza, Ulvaria obscura, Ulva prolifera, and Polysiphonia hendryi) in marine waters. We show that the sulfur isotope compositions (δ(34)S) of DMSP are depleted in (34)S relative to the source seawater sulfate by ∼1-3‰ and are correlated with the observed intracellular content of methionine, suggesting a link to metabolic pathways of methionine production. We suggest that this variability of δ(34)S is transferred to atmospheric geochemical products of DMSP degradation (DMS, MSA, and NSS-SO(4)(2-)), carrying implications for the interpretation of variability in δ(34)S of MSA and NSS-SO(4)(2-) that links them to changes in growth conditions and populations of DMSP producers rather than to the contributions of DMS and non-DMS sources.

International agreements to limit greenhouse gas emissions require verification to ensure that they are effective and fair. Verification based on direct observation of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations will be necessary to demonstrate that estimated emission reductions have been actualized in the atmosphere. Here we assess the capability of ground-based observations and a high-resolution (1.3 km) mesoscale atmospheric transport model to determine a change in greenhouse gas emissions over time from a metropolitan region. We test the method with observations from a network of CO(2) surface monitors in Salt Lake City. Many features of the CO(2) data were simulated with excellent fidelity, although data-model mismatches occurred on hourly timescales due to inadequate simulation of shallow circulations and the precise timing of boundary-layer stratification and destratification. Using two optimization procedures, monthly regional fluxes were constrained to sufficient precision to detect an increase or decrease in emissions of approximately 15% at the 95% confidence level. We argue that integrated column measurements of the urban dome of CO(2) from the ground and/or space are less sensitive than surface point measurements to the redistribution of emitted CO(2) by small-scale processes and thus may allow for more precise trend detection of emissions from urban regions.

Deciphering the evolution of global climate from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum approximately 19 ka to the early Holocene 11 ka presents an outstanding opportunity for understanding the transient response of Earth's climate system to external and internal forcings. During this interval of global warming, the decay of ice sheets caused global mean sea level to rise by approximately 80 m; terrestrial and marine ecosystems experienced large disturbances and range shifts; perturbations to the carbon cycle resulted in a net release of the greenhouse gases CO(2) and CH(4) to the atmosphere; and changes in atmosphere and ocean circulation affected the global distribution and fluxes of water and heat. Here we summarize a major effort by the paleoclimate research community to characterize these changes through the development of well-dated, high-resolution records of the deep and intermediate ocean as well as surface climate. Our synthesis indicates that the superposition of two modes explains much of the variability in regional and global climate during the last deglaciation, with a strong association between the first mode and variations in greenhouse gases, and between the second mode and variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Soil warming has the potential to alter both soil and plant processes that affect carbon storage in forest ecosystems. We have quantified these effects in a large, long-term (7-y) soil-warming study in a deciduous forest in New England. Soil warming has resulted in carbon losses from the soil and stimulated carbon gains in the woody tissue of trees. The warming-enhanced decay of soil organic matter also released enough additional inorganic nitrogen into the soil solution to support the observed increases in plant carbon storage. Although soil warming has resulted in a cumulative net loss of carbon from a New England forest relative to a control area over the 7-y study, the annual net losses generally decreased over time as plant carbon storage increased. In the seventh year, warming-induced soil carbon losses were almost totally compensated for by plant carbon gains in response to warming. We attribute the plant gains primarily to warming-induced increases in nitrogen availability. This study underscores the importance of incorporating carbon-nitrogen interactions in atmosphere-ocean-land earth system models to accurately simulate land feedbacks to the climate system.

Peatlands are a key component of the global carbon cycle. Chronologies of peatland initiation are typically based on compiled basal peat radiocarbon (14C) dates and frequency histograms of binned calibrated age ranges. However, such compilations are problematic because poor quality 14C dates are commonly included and because frequency histograms of binned age ranges introduce chronological artefacts that bias the record of peatland initiation. Using a published compilation of 274 basal 14C dates from Alaska as a case study, we show that nearly half the 14C dates are inappropriate for reconstructing peatland initiation, and that the temporal structure of peatland initiation is sensitive to sampling biases and treatment of calibrated 14C dates. We present revised chronologies of peatland initiation for Alaska and the circumpolar Arctic based on summed probability distributions of calibrated 14C dates. These revised chronologies reveal that northern peatland initiation lagged abrupt increases in atmospheric CH4 concentration at the start of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial (Termination 1A) and the end of the Younger Dryas chronozone (Termination 1B), suggesting that northern peatlands were not the primary drivers of the rapid increases in atmospheric CH4. Our results demonstrate that subtle methodological changes in the synthesis of basal 14C ages lead to substantially different interpretations of temporal trends in peatland initiation, with direct implications for the role of peatlands in the global carbon cycle.