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How states and great powers rise and fall is an intriguing enigma of human history. Are there any patterns? Do polities become more vulnerable over time as they age? We analyze longevity in hundreds of premodern states using survival analysis to help provide initial insights into these questions. This approach is commonly used to study the risk of death in biological organisms or failure in mechanical systems. The results reveal that the risk of state termination increased steeply over approximately the first two centuries after formation and stabilized thereafter. This provides the first quantitative support for the hypothesis that the resilience of political states decreases over time. Potential mechanisms that could drive such declining resilience include environmental degradation, increasing complexity, growing inequality, and extractive institutions. While the cases are from premodern times, such dynamics and drivers of vulnerability may remain relevant today. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency responses. We outline current knowledge about the likelihood of extreme climate change, discuss why understanding bad-to-worst cases is vital, articulate reasons for concern about catastrophic outcomes, define key terms, and put forward a research agenda. The proposed agenda covers four main questions: 1) What is the potential for climate change to drive mass extinction events? 2) What are the mechanisms that could result in human mass mortality and morbidity? 3) What are human societies' vulnerabilities to climate-triggered risk cascades, such as from conflict, political instability, and systemic financial risk? 4) How can these multiple strands of evidence--together with other global dangers--be usefully synthesized into an "integrated catastrophe assessment"? It is time for the scientific community to grapple with the challenge of better understanding catastrophic climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic inequality is notoriously difficult to quantify as reliable data on household incomes are missing for most of the world. Here, we show that a proxy for inequality based on remotely sensed nighttime light data may help fill this gap. Individual households cannot be remotely sensed. However, as households tend to segregate into richer and poorer neighborhoods, the correlation between light emission and economic thriving shown in earlier studies suggests that spatial variance of remotely sensed light per person might carry a signal of economic inequality. To test this hypothesis, we quantified Gini coefficients of the spatial variation in average nighttime light emitted per person. We found a significant relationship between the resulting light-based inequality indicator and existing estimates of net income inequality. This correlation between light-based Gini coefficients and traditional estimates exists not only across countries, but also on a smaller spatial scale comparing the 50 states within the United States. The remotely sensed character makes it possible to produce high-resolution global maps of estimated inequality. The inequality proxy is entirely independent from traditional estimates as it is based on observed light emission rather than self-reported household incomes. Both are imperfect estimates of true inequality. However, their independent nature implies that the light-based proxy could be used to constrain uncertainty in traditional estimates. More importantly, the light-based Gini maps may provide an estimate of inequality where previously no data were available at all. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human activities currently play a dominant role in shaping and eroding Earth's biodiversity, but the historical dynamics leading to this situation are poorly understood and contentious. Importantly, these dynamics are often studied and discussed without an emphasis on cultural evolution, despite its potential importance for past and present biodiversity dynamics. Here, we investigate whether cultural filtering, defined as the impact of cultural evolution on species presence, has driven the range dynamics of five historically widespread megafauna taxa (Asiatic elephant, rhinoceroses, tiger, Asiatic black bear, and brown bear) across China over the past 2 millennia. Data on megafauna and sociocultural history were compiled from Chinese administrative records. While faunal dynamics in China are often linked to climate change at these time scales, our results reveal cultural filtering as the dominant driver of range contractions in all five taxa. This finding suggests that the millennia-long spread of agricultural land and agricultural intensification, often accompanied by expansion of the Han culture, has been responsible for the extirpation of these megafauna species from much of China. Our results suggest that cultural filtering is important for understanding society's role in the assembly of contemporary communities from historical regional species pools. Our study provides direct evidence that cultural evolution since ancient times has overshadowed climate change in shaping broadscale megafauna biodiversity patterns, reflecting the strong and increasing importance of sociocultural processes in the biosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The massive forests of central Amazonia are often considered relatively resilient against climatic variation, but this view is challenged by the wildfires invoked by recent droughts. The impact of such fires that spread from pervasive sources of ignition may reveal where forests are less likely to persist in a drier future. Here we combine field observations with remotely sensed information for the whole Amazon to show that the annually inundated lowland forests that run through the heart of the system may be trapped relatively easily into a fire-dominated savanna state. This lower forest resilience on floodplains is suggested by patterns of tree cover distribution across the basin, and supported by our field and remote sensing studies showing that floodplain fires have a stronger and longer-lasting impact on forest structure as well as soil fertility. Although floodplains cover only 14% of the Amazon basin, their fires can have substantial cascading effects because forests and peatlands may release large amounts of carbon, and wildfires can spread to adjacent uplands. Floodplains are thus an Achilles’ heel of the Amazon system when it comes to the risk of large-scale climatedriven transitions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Histone acetylation is a major epigenetic control mechanism that is tightly linked to the promotion of gene expression. Histone acetylation levels are balanced through the opposing activities of histone acetyltransferases (HATs) and histone deacetylases (HDACs). Arabidopsis HDAC genes (AtHDACs) compose a large gene family, and distinct phenotypes among AtHDAC mutants reflect the functional specificity of individual AtHDACs. However, the mechanisms underlying this functional diversity are largely unknown. Here, we show that POWERDRESS (PWR), a SANT (SWI3/DAD2/N-CoR/TFIII-B) domain protein, interacts with HDA9 and promotes histone H3 deacetylation, possibly by facilitating HDA9 function at target regions. The developmental phenotypes of pwr and hda9 mutants were highly similar. Three lysine residues (K9, K14, and K27) of H3 retained hyperacetylation status in both pwr and hda9 mutants. Genome-wide H3K9 and H3K14 acetylation profiling revealed elevated acetylation at largely overlapping sets of target genes in the two mutants. Highly similar gene-expression profiles in the twomutants correlated with the histone H3 acetylation status in the pwr and hda9 mutants. In addition, PWR and HDA9 modulated flowering time by repressing AGAMOUS-LIKE 19 expression through histone H3 deacetylation in the same genetic pathway. Finally, PWR was shown to physically interact with HDA9, and its SANT2 domain, which is homologous to that of subunits in animal HDAC complexes, showed specific binding affinity to acetylated histone H3.We therefore propose that PWR acts as a subunit in a complex with HDA9 to result in lysine deacetylation of histone H3 at specific genomic targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]