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Various mitigation measures have been implemented to fight the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, including widely adopted social distancing and mandated face covering. However, assessing the effectiveness of those intervention practices hinges on the understanding of virus transmission, which remains uncertain. Here we show that airborne transmission is highly virulent and represents the dominant route to spread the disease. By analyzing the trend and mitigation measures in Wuhan, China, Italy, and New York City, from January 23 to May 9, 2020, we illustrate that the impacts of mitigation measures are discernable from the trends of the pandemic. Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the pandemic trends in the three epicenters. This protective measure alone significantly reduced the number of infections, that is, by over 78,000 in Italy from April 6 to May 9 and over 66,000 in New York City from April 17 to May 9. Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public. We conclude that wearing of face masks in public corresponds to the most effective means to prevent interhuman transmission, and this inexpensive practice, in conjunction with simultaneous social distancing, quarantine, and contact tracing, represents the most likely fighting opportunity to stop the COVID-19 pandemic. Our work also highlights the fact that sound science is essential in decision-making for the current and future public health pandemics.

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) represents a major constituent of tropospheric fine particulate matter, with profound implications for human health and climate. However, the chemical mechanisms leading to SOA formation remain uncertain, and atmospheric models consistently underpredict the global SOA budget. Small α-dicarbonyls, such as methylglyoxal, are ubiquitous in the atmosphere because of their significant production from photooxidation of aromatic hydrocarbons from traffic and industrial sources as well as from biogenic isoprene. Current experimental and theoretical results on the roles of methylglyoxal in SOA formation are conflicting. Using quantum chemical calculations, we show cationic oligomerization of methylglyoxal in aqueous media. Initial protonation and hydration of methylglyoxal lead to formation of diols/tetrol, and subsequent protonation and dehydration of diols/tetrol yield carbenium ions, which represent the key intermediates for formation and propagation of oligomerization. On the other hand, our results reveal that the previously proposed oligomerization via hydration for methylglyoxal is kinetically and thermodynamically implausible. The carbenium ion-mediated mechanism occurs barrierlessly on weakly acidic aerosols and cloud/fog droplets and likely provides a key pathway for SOA formation from biogenic and anthropogenic emissions.

Although regional haze adversely affects human health and possibly counteracts global warming from increasing levels of greenhouse gases, the formation and radiative forcing of regional haze on climate remain uncertain. By combining field measurements, laboratory experiments, and model simulations, we show a remarkable role of black carbon (BC) particles in driving the formation and trend of regional haze. Our analysis of long-term measurements in China indicates declined frequency of heavy haze events along with significantly reduced SO2, but negligibly alleviated haze severity. Also, no improving trend exists for moderate haze events. Our complementary laboratory experiments demonstrate that SO2 oxidation is efficiently catalyzed on BC particles in the presence of NO2 and NH3, even at low SO2 and intermediate relative humidity levels. Inclusion of the BC reaction accounts for about 90-100% and 30-50% of the sulfate production during moderate and heavy haze events, respectively. Calculations using a radiative transfer model and accounting for the sulfate formation on BC yield an invariant radiative forcing of nearly zero W m-2 on the top of the atmosphere throughout haze development, indicating small net climatic cooling/warming but large surface cooling, atmospheric heating, and air stagnation. This BC catalytic chemistry facilitates haze development and explains the observed trends of regional haze in China. Our results imply that reduction of SO2 alone is insufficient in mitigating haze occurrence and highlight the necessity of accurate representation of the BC chemical and radiative properties in predicting the formation and assessing the impacts of regional haze.

High levels of ultrafine particles (UFPs; diameter of less than 50 nm) are frequently produced from new particle formation under urban conditions, with profound implications on human health, weather, and climate. However, the fundamental mechanisms of new particle formation remain elusive, and few experimental studies have realistically replicated the relevant atmospheric conditions. Previous experimental studies simulated oxidation of one compound or a mixture of a few compounds, and extrapolation of the laboratory results to chemically complex air was uncertain. Here, we show striking formation of UFPs in urban air from combining ambient and chamber measurements. By capturing the ambient conditions (i.e., temperature, relative humidity, sunlight, and the types and abundances of chemical species), we elucidate the roles of existing particles, photochemistry, and synergy of multipollutants in new particle formation. Aerosol nucleation in urban air is limited by existing particles but negligibly by nitrogen oxides. Photooxidation of vehicular exhaust yields abundant precursors, and organics, rather than sulfuric acid or base species, dominate formation of UFPs under urban conditions. Recognition of this source of UFPs is essential to assessing their impacts and developing mitigation policies. Our results imply that reduction of primary particles or removal of existing particles without simultaneously limiting organics from automobile emissions is ineffective and can even exacerbate this problem.

Early life exposure to fine particulate matter (PM) in air is associated with infant respiratory disease and childhood asthma, but limited epidemiological data exist concerning the impacts of ultrafine particles (UFPs) on the etiology of childhood respiratory disease. Specifically, the role of UFPs in amplifying Th2- and/or Th17-driven inflammation (asthma promotion) or suppressing effector T cells (increased susceptibility to respiratory infection) remains unclear. Using a mouse model of in utero UFP exposure, we determined early immunological responses to house dust mite (HDM) allergen in offspring challenged from 0 to 4 wk of age. Two mice strains were exposed throughout gestation: C57BL/6 (sensitive to oxidative stress) and BALB/C (sensitive to allergen exposure). Offspring exposed to UFPs in utero exhibited reduced inflammatory response to HDM. Compared with filtered air (FA)-exposed/HDM-challenged mice, UFP-exposed offspring had lower white blood cell counts in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid and less pronounced peribronchiolar inflammation in both strains, albeit more apparent in C57BL/6 mice. In the C57BL/6 strain, offspring exposed in utero to FA and challenged with HDM exhibited a robust response in inflammatory cytokines IL-13 and Il-17. In contrast, this response was lost in offspring exposed in utero to UFPs. Circulating IL-10 was significantly up-regulated in C57BL/6 offspring exposed to UFPs, suggesting increased regulatory T cell expression and suppressed Th2/Th17 response. Our results reveal that in utero UFP exposure at a level close to the WHO recommended PM guideline suppresses an early immune response to HDM allergen, likely predisposing neonates to respiratory infection and altering long-term pulmonary health.

The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth's clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol-cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.

The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth's clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol-cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.

Various mitigation measures have been implemented to fight the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, including widely adopted social distancing and mandated face covering. However, assessing the effectiveness of those intervention practices hinges on the understanding of virus transmission, which remains uncertain. Here we show that airborne transmission is highly virulent and represents the dominant route to spread the disease. By analyzing the trend and mitigation measures in Wuhan, China, Italy, and New York City, from January 23 to May 9, 2020, we illustrate that the impacts of mitigation measures are discernable from the trends of the pandemic. Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the pandemic trends in the three epicenters. This protective measure alone significantly reduced the number of infections, that is, by over 78,000 in Italy from April 6 to May 9 and over 66,000 in New York City from April 17 to May 9. Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public. We conclude that wearing of face masks in public corresponds to the most effective means to prevent interhuman transmission, and this inexpensive practice, in conjunction with simultaneous social distancing, quarantine, and contact tracing, represents the most likely fighting opportunity to stop the COVID-19 pandemic. Our work also highlights the fact that sound science is essential in decision-making for the current and future public health pandemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) represents a major constituent of tropospheric fine particulate matter, with profound implications for human health and climate. However, the chemical mechanisms leading to SOA formation remain uncertain, and atmospheric models consistently underpredict the global SOA budget. Small α-dicarbonyls, such as methylglyoxal, are ubiquitous in the atmosphere because of their significant production from photooxidation of aromatic hydrocarbons from traffic and industrial sources as well as from biogenic isoprene. Current experimental and theoretical results on the roles of methylglyoxal in SOA formation are conflicting. Using quantum chemical calculations, we show cationic oligomerization of methylglyoxal in aqueous media. Initial protonation and hydration of methylglyoxal lead to formation of diols/tetrol, and subsequent protonation and dehydration of diols/tetrol yield carbenium ions, which represent the key intermediates for formation and propagation of oligomerization. On the other hand, our results reveal that the previously proposed oligomerization via hydration for methylglyoxal is kinetically and thermodynamically implausible. The carbenium ion-mediated mechanism occurs barrierlessly on weakly acidic aerosols and cloud/fog droplets and likely provides a key pathway for SOA formation from biogenic and anthropogenic emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although regional haze adversely affects human health and possibly counteracts global warming from increasing levels of greenhouse gases, the formation and radiative forcing of regional haze on climate remain uncertain. By combining field measurements, laboratory experiments, and model simulations, we show a remarkable role of black carbon (BC) particles in driving the formation and trend of regional haze. Our analysis of long-term measurements in China indicates declined frequency of heavy haze events along with significantly reduced SO2, but negligibly alleviated haze severity. Also, no improving trend exists for moderate haze events. Our complementary laboratory experiments demonstrate that SO2 oxidation is efficiently catalyzed on BC particles in the presence of NO2 and NH3, even at low SO2 and intermediate relative humidity levels. Inclusion of the BC reaction accounts for about 90-100% and 30-50% of the sulfate production during moderate and heavy haze events, respectively. Calculations using a radiative transfer model and accounting for the sulfate formation on BC yield an invariant radiative forcing of nearly zero W m-2 on the top of the atmosphere throughout haze development, indicating small net climatic cooling/warming but large surface cooling, atmospheric heating, and air stagnation. This BC catalytic chemistry facilitates haze development and explains the observed trends of regional haze in China. Our results imply that reduction of SO2 alone is insufficient in mitigating haze occurrence and highlight the necessity of accurate representation of the BC chemical and radiative properties in predicting the formation and assessing the impacts of regional haze. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Photochemical oxidation of aromatic hydrocarbons leads to tropospheric ozone and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation, with profound implications for air quality, human health, and climate. Toluene is the most abundant aromatic compound under urban environments, but its detailed chemical oxidation mechanism remains uncertain. From combined laboratory experiments and quantum chemical calculations, we show a toluene oxidation mechanism that is different from the one adopted in current atmospheric models. Our experimental work indicates a larger-than-expected branching ratio for cresols, but a negligible formation of ring-opening products (e.g., methylglyoxal). Quantum chemical calculations also demonstrate that cresols are much more stable than their corresponding peroxy radicals, and, for the most favorable OH (ortho) addition, the pathway of H extraction by O2 to form the cresol proceeds with a smaller barrier than O2 addition to form the peroxy radical. Our results reveal that phenolic (rather than peroxy radical) formation represents the dominant pathway for toluene oxidation, highlighting the necessity to reassess its role in ozone and SOA formation in the atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Black carbon (BC) exerts profound impacts on air quality and climate because of its high absorption cross-section over a broad range of electromagnetic spectra, but the current results on absorption enhancement of BC particles during atmospheric aging remain conflicting. Here, we quantified the aging and variation in the optical properties of BC particles under ambient conditions in Beijing, China, and Houston, United States, using a novel environmental chamber approach. BC aging exhibits two distinct stages, i.e., initial transformation from a fractal to spherical morphology with little absorption variation and subsequent growth of fully compact particles with a large absorption enhancement. The timescales to achieve complete morphology modification and an absorption amplification factor of 2.4 for BC particles are estimated to be 2.3 h and 4.6 h, respectively, in Beijing, compared with 9 h and 18 h, respectively, in Houston. Our findings indicate that BC under polluted urban environments could play an essential role in pollution development and contribute importantly to large positive radiative forcing. The variation in direct radiative forcing is dependent on the rate and timescale of BC aging, with a clear distinction between urban cities in developed and developing countries, i.e., a higher climatic impact inmore polluted environments. We suggest that mediation in BC emissions achieves a cobenefit in simultaneously controlling air pollution and protecting climate, especially for developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the world's second largest economy, China has experienced severe haze pollution, with fine particulate matter (PM) recently reaching unprecedentedly high levels across many cities, and an understanding of the PM formation mechanism is critical in the development of efficient mediation policies to minimize its regional to global impacts. We demonstrate a periodic cycle of PM episodes in Beijing that is governed by meteorological conditions and characterized by two distinct aerosol formation processes of nucleation and growth, but with a small contribution from primary emissions and regional transport of particles. Nucleation consistently precedes a polluted period, producing a high number concentration of nano-sized particles under clean conditions. Accumulation of the particle mass concentration exceeding several hundred micrograms per cubic meter is accompanied by a continuous size growth from the nucleation-mode particles over multiple days to yield numerous larger particles, distinctive from the aerosol formation typically observed in other regions worldwide. The particle compositions in Beijing, on the other hand, exhibit a similarity to those commonly measured in many global areas, consistent with the chemical constituents dominated by secondary aerosol formation. Our results highlight that regulatory controls of gaseous emissions for volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides from local transportation and sulfur dioxide from regional industrial sources represent the key steps to reduce the urban PM level in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric aerosols affect weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track, using a multiscale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and preindustrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by -2.5 and +1.3 W m-2, respectively, by emission changes from preindustrial to present day, and an increased cloud top height indicates invigorated midlatitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides, for the first time to the authors' knowledge, a global perspective of the effects of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multiscale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on a global scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of "dangerous anthropogenic interference" (DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for "early," "urgent," "rapid," and "fast-action" mitigation to help avoid DAI and abrupt climate changes. We define "fast-action" to include regulatory measures that can begin within 2-3 years, be substantially implemented in 5-10 years, and produce a climate response within decades. We discuss strategies for short-lived non-CO2 GHGs and particles, where existing agreements can be used to accomplish mitigation objectives. Policy makers can amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential. Other fast-action strategies can reduce emissions of black carbon particles and precursor gases that lead to ozone formation in the lower atmosphere, and increase biosequestration, including through biochar. These and other fast-action strategies may reduce the risk of abrupt climate change in the next few decades by complementing cuts in CO2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indirect radiative forcing of atmospheric aerosols by modification of cloud processes poses the largest uncertainty in climate prediction. We show here a trend of increasing deep convective clouds over the Pacific Ocean in winter from long-term satellite cloud measurements (1984–2005). Simulations with a cloud-resolving weather research and forecast model reveal that the increased deep convective clouds are reproduced when accounting for the aerosol effect from the Asian pollution outflow, which leads to large-scale enhanced convection and precipitation and hence an intensifed storm track over the Pacific. We suggest that the wintertime Pacific is highly vulnerable to the aerosol-cloud interaction because of favorable cloud dynamical and microphysical conditions from the coupling between the Pacific storm track and Asian pollution outflow. The intensified Pacific storm track is climatically significant and represents possibly the first detected climate signal of the aerosol-cloud interaction associated with anthropogenic pollution. In addition to radiative forcing on climate, intensification of the Pacific storm track likely impacts the global general circulation due to its fundamental role in meridional heat transport and forcing of stationary waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]