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The accurate prediction of gas well production is one of the key factors affecting the economical and efficient development of tight gas wells. The traditional oil and gas well production prediction method assumes strict conditions and has a low prediction accuracy in actual field applications. At present, intelligent algorithms based on big data have been applied in oil and gas well production prediction, but there are still some limitations. Only learning from data leads to the poor generalization ability and anti-interference ability of prediction models. To solve this problem, a production prediction method of tight gas wells based on the decline curve and data-driven neural network is established in this paper. Based on the actual production data of fractured horizontal wells in three tight gas reservoirs in the Ordos Basin, the prediction effect of the Arps decline curve model, the SPED decline curve model, the MFF decline curve model, and the combination of the decline curve and data-driven neural network model is compared and analyzed. The results of the case analysis show that the MFF model and the combined data-driven model have the highest accuracy, the average absolute percentage error is 14.11%, and the root-mean-square error is 1.491, which provides a new method for the production prediction of tight gas wells in the Ordos Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The production of tight gas wells decreases rapidly, and the traditional method is difficult to accurately predict the production of tight gas wells. At present, intelligent algorithms based on big data have been applied in oil and gas well production prediction, but there are still some technical problems. For example, the traditional error back propagation neural network (BP) still has the problem of finding the local optimal value, resulting in low prediction accuracy. In order to solve this problem, this paper establishes the output prediction method of BP neural network optimized with the sparrow search algorithm (SSA), and optimizes the hyperparameters of BP network such as activation function, training function, hidden layer, and node number based on examples, and constructs a high-precision SSA-BP neural network model. Data from 20 tight gas wells, the SSA-BP neural network model, Hongyuan model, and Arps model are predicted and compared. The results indicate that when the proportion of the predicted data is 20%, the SSA-BP model predicts an average absolute mean percentage error of 20.16%. When the proportion of forecast data is 10% of the total data, the SSA-BP algorithm has high accuracy and high stability. When the proportion of predicted data is 10%, the mean absolute average percentage error is 3.97%, which provides a new method for tight gas well productivity prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]