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During the last deglaciation, atmospheric CO2 increased by about 75 ppm. The deep ocean is likely the dominant source of this atmospheric CO2 rise in the atmospheric pool; however, a consensus accounting for the entire 75 ppm remains elusive. Since the deep ocean cannot account for the entire 75 ppm, the terrestrial environment likely makes up the remainder. This paper provides a mechanism for an unaccounted-for portion of the source of this terrestrial carbon, that being soil organic carbon (SOC) from the tropical montane Andes, and with that, minimum constraints on the contribution of SOC to the total rise in atmospheric CO2 during the last deglaciation. Using numerical climate modeling input into an empirical model derived from tropical montane forests of the Andes Mountains in South America, this study finds that during the last deglaciation, the organic layer thickness was thinning from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present (pre-industrial) in the tropical montane Andes. This overall warming and organic layer thickness thinning may have led to a loss of available carbon storage space, causing a leak of CO2 into the atmosphere over this time scale. This study finds an estimate for the contribution of global atmospheric CO2 from SOC in tropical montane Andean soils is likely at least ∼1.4 ppm CO2 since the LGM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic geomorphologists, and eolian geomorphologists in particular, have always been interested in studying dunes to understand and construct past climatic conditions. Smith's 1965 paper presents an excellent example of a reconnaissance piece of scientific work that set the foundation for (1) using aerial photo-interpretation to provide chronological information about dune fields; (2) the use of eolian processes and landforms as climate change indicators; and (3) extraterrestrial or planetary geomorphology. This article briefly describes Smith's background, background on Nebraska Sand Hills, and the impact and legacy of Smith's classic paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Estimation of the relative intensity of different cold periods occurring during the Late Quaternary is a difficult task, particularly in non-glaciated mountain landscapes and where high- to medium-resolution archives for proxy data are lacking. In this paper, we study a Holocene polycyclic soil sequence in the central Alps (Val Cavargna, Northern Italy) to estimate climatic parameters (specifically Temperature) changes in non-glaciated, high altitude environments. We investigate this key site through palaeopedological and micromorphological analyses in order to understand phases of soil development and detect hidden evidence of cold conditions during its formation. Three phases of pedogenesis can be recognized and attributed in time to different periods during the Holocene. Pedogenetic phases were separated by two truncation and deposition episodes related to the reactivation of slope processes under cold conditions at the onset of the Neoglacial and the Iron Age Cold Epoch, respectively. Micromorphological evidence of frost action in the soil can instead relate to pedogenetic processes acting in the Little Ice Age. The different expression of these three cold periods corresponds to changes in climatic conditions, pointing to the Little Ice Age as a cooler/drier period in comparison to the preceding ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exploring prehistoric variation in human–environmental interaction is critical for understanding the historical patterns and mechanisms of long-term human–land evolution. In this paper we review the published radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) data from Late Paleolithic, Neolithic and Bronze Age sites in China, analyze the spatial–temporal distribution of these sites, and compare it with the results of recent paleoclimatic and archaeological studies. We seek to study the trajectory and influencing factors of human–environmental interactions in late prehistoric China. We detect changing patterns in the relationship between humans and the environment during different phases of the prehistoric era in China. Climate change clearly affected the environment of hunter-gatherer groups between 50,000–10,000 BP (before present, defined as 1950AD), and variation in human population in Neolithic China (∼10,000–4000 BP) was likely influenced primarily by the development of agriculture, in addition to substantial climate events. The spatial scale of human settlements expanded in the Bronze Age (∼4000–2200 BP) in a period of cooling climate. During this time the impact of human activities on the environment increased significantly, primarily caused by technological innovations related to the onset of prehistoric transcontinental cultural exchange in Eurasia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A warming climate is melting the namesake glaciers of Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. James Dyson’s 1948 paper was one of the earliest publications to emphasize climate change impacts to the cryosphere through an examination of Sperry and Grinnell Glaciers. This paper, combined with his subsequent works, acts as a pillar for current glacier monitoring efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the reconstruction of European Atlantic storm events with the contribution of a new stormy reconstruction in its central part. Three marsh environments on the island of Yeu were chosen to identify disturbing storm events from the Mid- to Late Holocene with vibracore sampling, radiocarbon dating and sedimentary analysis. Nine probable intervals of high energy deposition in these low-transport-activity environments are estimated: 600–500, near 1590, 2100–1950, 2850–2350, 3500–3270, 5400–5370, 6650–6510, near 7000 and between 7670 and 7470 calibrated years before present (cal y BP). By comparison with sedimentological paleostorm studies, we confirm six European Atlantic storm events estimated at near 600–300, 1700–1100, 2900–2500, 3500–3300, 5500–5100 and 7700–7100 cal y BP, corresponding to worldwide Holocene cooling climatic periods. A comparison with other storminess reviews of worldwide main stormy coasts shows that Holocene storms can increase during global cooling periods in the northern hemisphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) typically track the material and energy cycles in ecosystems with finite plant functional types (PFTs). Increasingly, the community ecology and modelling studies recognize that current PFT scheme is not sufficient for simulating ecological processes. Recent advances in the study of plant functional traits (FTs) in community ecology provide a novel and feasible approach for the improvement of PFT-based DGVMs. This paper reviews the development of current DGVMs over recent decades. After characterizing the advantages and disadvantages of the PFT-based scheme, it summarizes trait-based theories and discusses the possibility of incorporating FTs into DGVMs. More importantly, this paper summarizes three strategies for constructing next-generation DGVMs with FTs. Finally, the method’s limitations, current challenges and future research directions for FT theory are discussed for FT theory. We strongly recommend the inclusion of several FTs, namely specific leaf area (SLA), leaf nitrogen content (LNC), carbon isotope composition of leaves (Leaf δ13C), the ratio between leaf-internal and ambient mole fractions of CO2 (Leaf Ci/Ca), seed mass and plant height. These are identified as the most important in constructing DGVMs based on FTs, which are also recognized as important ecological strategies for plants. The integration of FTs into dynamic vegetation models is a critical step towards improving the results of DGVM simulations; communication and cooperation among ecologists and modellers is equally important for the development of the next generation of DGVMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the papers collected in Man's Impact on the Hydrological Cycle in the United Kingdom Hollis gives us a fascinating view of the concerns and approaches of practising hydrologists in the late 1970s. Hollis, a physical geographer from University College London, spent most of his research career considering the way that humans acted to change their surroundings, looking first at the impact of urbanisation on flooding and later at the management of wetlands. The papers in this book cover a wide range of subjects, from the impact of forestry to the effects of house building on channel morphology and function. Many provide valuable reviews and insights into contemporary thinking on the effect of humans on the UK environment, and the modern reader will discover much of value in the ideas and approaches described in this book. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the implications of climate change for the water environment and its management in England. There is a large literature, but most studies have looked at flow volumes or nutrients and none have considered explicitly the implications of climate change for the delivery of water management objectives. Studies have been undertaken in a small number of locations. Studies have used observations from the past to infer future changes, and have used numerical simulation models with climate change scenarios. The literature indicates that climate change poses risks to the delivery of water management objectives, but that these risks depend on local catchment and water body conditions. Climate change affects the status of water bodies, and it affects the effectiveness of measures to manage the water environment and meet policy objectives. The future impact of climate change on the water environment and its management is uncertain. Impacts are dependent on changes in the duration of dry spells and frequency of ‘flushing’ events, which are highly uncertain and not included in current climate scenarios. There is a good qualitative understanding of ways in which systems may change, but interactions between components of the water environment are poorly understood. Predictive models are only available for some components, and model parametric and structural uncertainty has not been evaluated. The impacts of climate change depend on other pressures on the water environment in a catchment, and also on the management interventions that are undertaken to achieve water management objectives. The paper has also developed a series of consistent conceptual models describing the implications of climate change for pressures on the water environment, based around the source-pathway-receptor concept. They provide a framework for a systematic assessment across catchments and pressures of the implications of climate change for the water environment and its management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The assessment of the potential impact of climate change on transport is an area of research very much in its infancy, and one that requires input from a multitude of disciplines including geography, engineering and technology, meteorology, climatology and futures studies. This paper investigates the current state of the art for assessments on urban surface transport, where rising populations and increasing dependence on efficient and reliable mobility have increased the importance placed on resilience to weather. The standard structure of climate change impact assessment (CIA) requires understanding in three important areas: how weather currently affects infrastructure and operations; how climate change may alter the frequency and magnitude of these impacts; and how concurrent technological and socio-economic development may shape the transport network of the future, either ameliorating or exacerbating the effects of climate change. The extent to which the requisite knowledge exists for a successful CIA is observed to decrease from the former to the latter. This paper traces a number of developments in the extrapolation of physical and behavioural relationships on to future climates, including a broad move away from previous deterministic methods and towards probabilistic projections which make use of a much broader range of climate change model output, giving a better representation of the uncertainty involved. Studies increasingly demand spatially and temporally downscaled climate projections that can represent realistic sub-daily fluctuations in weather that transport systems are sensitive to. It is recommended that future climate change impact assessments should focus on several key areas, including better representation of sub-daily extremes in climate tools, and recreation of realistic spatially coherent weather. Greater use of the increasing amounts of data created and captured by ‘intelligent infrastructure’ and ‘smart cities’ is also needed to develop behavioural and physical models of the response of transport to weather and to develop a better understanding of how stakeholders respond to probabilistic climate change impact projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

James C. Knox’s 1977 paper “Human Impacts on Wisconsin Stream Channels,” published in the Annals of the Association of American Geographers, was a key component of a suite of three papers by him defining the response of rivers to the introduction and management of agriculture and to climate change. In this paper he used the Driftless Area of southwest Wisconsin as a laboratory where he could define fluvial responses by their sedimentary signatures in floodplain deposits. Land-use records dating back to the early 19th century along with shorter climate records provided his understanding of the drivers of change. He found that floods increased as an outcome of land-cover change. Upstream tributaries became wider and shallower as coarse deposits limited their adjustments, while main stem channels became narrower and deeper. His paper reflected the influence of his graduate advisor and especially of prominent faculty colleagues at the University of Wisconsin from fields ranging from soils and climatology to geomorphology and history. The paper was the subject of considerable debate in the professional community, but it remains a much-cited example of Knox’s work in unraveling the Quaternary and Holocene history of rivers of the Driftless Area and by extension the upper Mississippi River system. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper provides a review of research and techniques that focus on the seasonally thawed portion of the Earth above permafrost terrain known as the active layer. The paper examines various different conceptual active layer systems, identifying five active layer types: bedrock (Type I), rock glacier or debris covered (Type II), mineral soil (Type III), organic mat or soil (Type IV) and submerged (Type V) active layer systems. These systems can be independent or mixed (frequently) in a permafrost environment, but all respond differently to climatic change or disturbance based on the thermal properties of the material and ice/water content. The review also highlights various active layer monitoring techniques including: probing, the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring Program (CALM) and frost tubes. Active layer modelling techniques are also reviewed, including the Stefan and the Kudryavtsev equations. In addition, the study highlights the active layer in a changing climate, examining the sensitivities of this layer to changes in temperature, precipitation and surface changes. Although the active layer has been well studied, knowledge gaps still exist including conflicting definitions between the thermal definition (0°C) and the physical definition (frozen water), which can become significant in areas with pore water that contains high levels of dissolved solids. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

A changing climate is anticipated to alter hydroclimatological and hydroecological processes across the UK and around the world. This paper builds on a series of reports commissioned in 2012 (Water Climate Change Impacts Report Card [WCCRC], 2012) and published in a special issue of Progress in Physical Geography in 2015 that interpreted and synthesised the relevant, peer-reviewed scientific literature of climate change impacts on the UK's water environment. It aims to provide reliable, clear information about the potential impacts of climate change on hydrology and the water environment. We review new evidence since 2012 for historical and potential future changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration, river flows and groundwater levels, river and groundwater temperature/quality and, finally, aquatic ecosystems. Some new evidence exists for change in most of these hydrological components, typically in support of the spatial and temporal trends reported in WCCRC 2012. However, it remains the case that more research has been conducted on rainfall and river flows than evapotranspiration, groundwater levels, river and groundwater temperature, water quality or freshwater ecosystems. Consequently, there remains a clear disparity of robust evidence for historical and potential future change between the top and bottom of the hydroclimatological-hydroecological process chain. As was the case in WCCRC 2012, this remains a significant barrier to informed climate change adaptation in these components of the water environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paleotempestology, the study of past tropical cyclones (TCs) using geological proxy techniques, is a growing discipline that utilizes data from a broad range of sources. Most paleotempestological studies have been conducted using ''established proxies,'' such as grain-size analysis, loss-on-ignition, and micropaleontological indicators. More recently, however, researchers have been applying more advanced geochemical analyses, such as X-ray fluorescence core scanning and stable isotopic geochemistry, to generate new paleotempestological records. In this paper we begin by providing a list of paleotempestological studies for the western North Atlantic Basin and illustrate the spatial coverage of these studies. We then review the premises behind both established and new proxies and discuss their strengths and limitations at resolving past hurricane activity. Lastly, we suggest future directions for paleotempestological research based on our review of the literature that we argue will ultimately lead to a better understanding of TC dynamics under future climate change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This progress report is the first of three overviews of important fields of study within contemporary glaciology, illustrated with reference to exemplar research contributions and highlighting key developments in each field since 2005, the date of the last review of ‘Glaciology’ in this journal. The topics covered in this paper are: (1) the mass balance of glaciers and ice sheets and their contributions to global sea level change; and (2) atmospheric melt-induced influences on the dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The paper aims to provide an overview of key developments over the last six years from each topic, with discussion of the continuing debates and unresolved issues which constitute the foci for ongoing and future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The protection and the sustainable management of soil resources in Africa are of paramount importance, particularly in the context of the uncertain impact of climate change and the increasing pressures of human activities. From the perspective of a policy-maker interested in topics such as food security and land degradation in Africa, this situation requires up-to-date and relevant soil information at regional and continental scales. To provide timely and reliable information on soils at synoptic scales, moderate and coarse spatial resolution satellite data offer many possibilities. The paper reviews how a range of multispectral, thermal infrared, passive microwave and active microwave spaceborne sensors can be used in the delineation of soil units, as well as in the assessment of some of their key properties and threats to soil functions from pressures such as water and wind erosion, landslides and salinization. The paper shows that remotely sensed data can be used for mapping soils in Africa but often need to be combined with ancillary data and field observations in order to be effective. Remote sensing is shown to be a key component of the emerging discipline of digital soil mapping. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Various methods have been developed over the past five decades for dependence modeling of multivariate variables in hydrology and water resources, but there has been no overall review of techniques commonly used in the field. This paper, therefore, introduces several methods focusing on dependence structure modeling, including parametric distribution, entropy, copula, and nonparametric. Recent advances in modeling dependences mainly reside in nonlinear dependence modeling (including extreme dependence) with flexible marginal distributions, and in high-dimension dependence modeling via the vine copula construction with flexible dependence structures. Strengths and limitations of different methods and avenues for future research, such as dependence modeling in a changing climate, are discussed to aid water resource planners and managers in the selection and application of suitable techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Substantial climate change and intensive anthropogenic activities hamper efforts to explain and predict the variability of the terrestrial water balance. The Budyko framework has recently seen a renaissance in hydrological research due to the framework’s comprehensiveness and effectiveness for studying the effects of global change on water resources. In this paper, the development of the Budyko framework is analysed first. The temporal and spatial variability for the Budyko hypothesis are subsequently elaborated. On finer temporal scales, more processes need to be considered, and the degree of control exerted by individual factors on the water balance varies with the spatial scale considered. Finally, perspectives regarding better understanding and application of the Budyko framework at the catchment scale are provided. A representative and diverse catchment data set is required to estimate the parameter in the model. The co-evolution of landscape characteristics and climate properties would be beneficial to improve the Budyko framework with respect to model parsimony and the physical background. It is necessary to illuminate how the empirical Budyko curve would change under climate change. The general laws for selecting variables and statistical methods for improving Budyko models still need to be explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews Ethiopia’s experience and research progress in past soil and water conservation (SWC) efforts and suggests possible solutions for improvement. Although indigenous SWC techniques date back to 400 BC, institutionalized SWC activity in Ethiopia became significant only after the 1970s. At least six national SWC-related programs have been initiated since the 1970s and their focus over time has shifted from food relief to land conservation and then to livelihoods. The overall current soil erosion rates are highly variable and large by international standards, and sheet, rill, and gully erosion are the dominant processes. The influence of human activities on the landscape has traditionally been deleterious, but this trend seems to have recently reversed in some parts of the country following the engagement of the communities in land management. The efficiency of SWC measures show mixed results that are influenced by the type of measures and the agro-ecology under which they were implemented; in general, the relative performance of the interventions is better in the drylands as compared with humid areas. Methodological limitations also occur when addressing the economic aspects related to benefits of ecosystem services and other externalities. Although farmers have shown an increased understanding of the soil erosion problem, SWC efforts face a host of barriers related to limited access to capital, limited benefits, land tenure insecurity, limited technology choices and technical support, and poor community participation. In general SWC research in Ethiopia is fragmented and not comprehensive, mainly because of a lack of participatory research, field observations, and adoptable methods to evaluate impacts. A potentially feasible approach to expand and sustain SWC programs is to attract benefits from global carbon markets. Moreover, a dedicated institution responsible for overseeing the research–extension linkage of SWC interventions of the country should be established. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperature and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper reviews the impact of anthropogenic climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate makes change hard to detect; only historical increases in air temperature can be attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing, but over the last 50 years more winter rainfall has been falling in intense events. Future changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration could lead to changed flow regimes and impacts on water quality, aquatic ecosystems and water availability. Summer flows may decrease on average, but floods may become larger and more frequent. River and lake water quality may decline as a result of higher water temperatures, lower river flows and increased algal blooms in summer, and because of higher flows in the winter. In communicating this important work, researchers should pay particular attention to explaining confidence and uncertainty clearly. Much of the relevant research is either global or highly localized: decision-makers would benefit from more studies that address water and climate change at a spatial and temporal scale appropriate for the decisions they make. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a burgeoning international literature on hydro-climatic trend detection, motivated by the need to detect and interpret any emerging changes in river flows associated with anthropogenic climate change. The UK has a particularly strong evidence base in this area thanks to a well-developed monitoring programme and a wealth of studies published over the last 20 years. This paper reviews this research, with a view to assessing the evidence for climate change influences on UK river flow, including floods and droughts. This assessment is of international relevance given the scale of the research effort in the UK, a densely monitored and data-rich environment, but one with significant human disturbances to river flow regimes, as in many parts of the world. The review finds that changes can be detected in river flow regimes, some of which agree with future change projections, while others are in apparent contradiction. Observed changes generally cannot be attributed to climate change, largely due to the fact that river flow records are limited in length and the identification of short-term trends is confounded by natural variability. A UK ‘Benchmark’ network of near-natural catchments is an internationally significant example of an initiative to enable climate variability to be discerned from direct human disturbances (e.g. abstractions, dam construction). Generally, however, the problem of attribution has been tackled rather indirectly in the UK, as elsewhere, and more efforts are required to attribute change in a more rigorous manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models to simulate the current and future climate change has flourished as a research topic during recent decades. This paper assesses the performance of multi-model ensembles in simulating global land temperature from 1960 to 1999, using Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency and Taylor diagrams. The future trends of temperature for different scales and emission scenarios are projected based on the posterior model probabilities estimated by Bayesian methods. The results show that ensemble prediction can improve the accuracy of simulations of the spatiotemporal distribution of global temperature. The performance of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) at simulating the annual temperature dynamic is significantly better than single climate models and their simple model averaging (SMA). However, BMA simulation can demonstrate the temperature trend on the decadal scale, but its annual assessment of accuracy is relatively weak. The ensemble prediction presents dissimilarly accurate descriptions in different regions, and the best performance appears in Australia. The results also indicate that future temperatures in northern Asia rise with the greatest speed in some scenarios, and Australia is the most sensitive region for the effects of greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to the uncertainty of ensemble prediction, the impacts of climate change on agriculture production and water resources are discussed as an extension of this research. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Until relatively recently, it was assumed that Arctic ice masses would respond to climatic/oceanic forcing over millennia, but observations made during the past two decades have radically altered this viewpoint and have demonstrated that marine-terminating outlet glaciers can undergo dramatic dynamic change at annual timescales. This paper reviews the substantial progress made in our understanding of the links between marine-terminating Arctic outlet glacier behaviour and the ocean-climate system during the past 20 years, when many ice masses have rapidly lost mass. Specifically, we assess three primary climatic/oceanic controls on outlet glacier dynamics, namely air temperature, ocean temperature and sea ice concentrations, and discuss key linkages between them. Despite recent progress, significant uncertainty remains over the response of marine-terminating outlet glaciers to these forcings, most notably: (1) the spatial variation in the relative importance of each factor; (2), the contribution of glacier-specific factors to glacier dynamics; and (3) the limitations in our ability to accurately model marine-terminating outlet glacier behaviour. Our present understanding precludes us from identifying patterns of outlet glacier response to forcing that are applicable across the Arctic and we underscore the potential danger of extrapolating rates of mass loss from a small sample of study glaciers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper adopts a technique common in the dynamical climate modelling literature, that of pattern scaling, and applies it to previously available statistically downscaled station level data for Ireland for two climatically relevant variables, that of temperature and precipitation. This technique allows for the rapid development of climate scenarios for additional emissions scenarios not previously available from the GCM modelling centres. Having derived the end of century (2080s) change in both these variables for four marker emissions scenarios (A1FI, A2, B2, B1), regional response rates, or the regional rate of warming per °C global warming at each station, were calculated. The estimated ranges in regional responses at each station were then compared to regional response rates for the Irish ‘grid box’ derived from a larger sample of 14 GCMs, in order to determine if the calculated response rates were illustrative of a wider suite of GCMs. A Monte Carlo (MC) resampling approach was then employed to sample regional response rates for selected stations and for different estimates of future warming. On the basis of the MC approach, probability distribution functions (pdfs) of simulated changes in temperature and precipitation were constructed and compared to the original statistically downscaled data. The methodology and results presented represent a significant contribution to the traditional approach of statistical downscaling through the development of associated likelihoods, rather than just a change in the mean value. While the methodology presented should enable the rapid development of probabilistic based climate projections, based on a limited availability of downscaled climate scenarios, caution needs to be exercised in the interpretation of the results. While they provide a basis for risk or policy assessment, estimates of the level of risk are not independent of the method employed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rock coasts are widespread in the tropics and exhibit particular morphologies that may be specific to their tropical, micro-tidal location. Notches are particularly well developed, often linked to onshore cliffs and fronted by subhorizontal platforms. Through a review of previously published data across the tropics, average cliff face erosion rates are calculated as 2.15 ± 2.62 mm a−1, intertidal erosion rates 3.03 ± 7.50 mm a−1 and subtidal erosion rates 0.96 ± 0.44 mm a−1. Intertidal erosion rates are variable within and across latitudinal ranges: within 10°N and S of the equator average rates are 1.42 ± 1.22 mm a−1; between latitudes of 10°and 20°, 0.88 ± 1.16 mm a−1 and between latitudes of 20°and 30°, 2.04 ± 2.57 mm a−1. A consideration of temporal variations in intertidal erosion rates provides insights into the potential impacts of climate change on the erosion dynamics of rock coasts in the tropics. This paper highlights some of the interactions over time and space between process and measurement that continue to limit our understanding of, and ability to model, the erosion dynamics of tropical rock coasts. It concludes by identifying potentially fruitful areas for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over recent decades, analyses of the structure and impact of atmospheric teleconnections have substantially increased our understanding of the climate system and the role of climate variability. Moving beyond simple correlations between teleconnection indices and temperature and precipitation anomalies, synoptic climatology has been able to provide insight on the spatiotemporal manifestation of teleconnection anomalies, as well as further understanding in terms of teleconnection-related anomalies in circulation pattern frequencies that can lead to extreme events over individual areas. In this progress report, we focus on a number of recent papers that, broadly defined, assess two realms of teleconnections: the North Atlantic circulation, largely focusing on the North Atlantic Oscillation; and the north and tropical Pacific circulation, as manifest in El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Pacific North American pattern, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In each of these two regions, we highlight the major goals and results of recent synoptic research. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The semi-arid US Intermountain West is characterized by complex hydroclimatic variability, influenced both by topography and by atmosphere and ocean processes operating over a large range of time and space scales. Understanding climate–hydrology interactions has become increasingly important as demands on water resources grow from both within and beyond the region, particularly in light of projected climate changes. This paper reviews key atmospheric and oceanic controls that impact the Intermountain West’s water supply, how those controls vary over multiple timescales, the tree-ring record of hydroclimatic variability in the region, projected climate change impacts, and research needs for the future. Water availability in the Intermountain West is largely influenced by interrelated atmospheric features that include the strength and position of the Pacific subtropical high, the intensity and geographic location of the Aleutian low, the latitude of the westerly storm track, and teleconnections such as the Pacific North American pattern and the El Niño−Southern Oscillation system. The tree-ring record of pre-instrumental conditions in the Intermountain West indicates that there have been droughts in the past that were more severe than those experienced in the historical record. Climate model projections of future moisture-related changes, including decreased snowpack and changing seasonality of precipitation, may exacerbate strain on the region’s water supply. Advances in climate modeling and in our understanding of climate variability over multiple time and space scales would improve capacity for water resource management in the Intermountain West. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Flooding is the most common natural hazard and third most damaging globally after storms and earthquakes. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase flood risk through more frequent heavy precipitation, increased catchment wetness and sea level rise. This paper reviews steps being taken by actors at international, national, regional and community levels to adapt to flood risk from tidal, fluvial, surface and groundwater sources. We refer to existing inventories, national and sectoral adaptation plans, flood inquiries, building and planning codes, city plans, research literature and international policy reviews. We distinguish between the enabling environment for adaptation and specific implementing measures to manage flood risk. Enabling includes routine monitoring, flood forecasting, data exchange, institutional reform, bridging organizations, contingency planning for disasters, insurance and legal incentives to reduce vulnerability. All such activities are ‘low regret’ in that they yield benefits regardless of the climate scenario but are not cost-free. Implementing includes climate safety factors for new build, upgrading resistance and resilience of existing infrastructure, modifying operating rules, development control, flood forecasting, temporary and permanent retreat from hazardous areas, periodic review and adaptive management. We identify evidence of both types of adaptation following the catastrophic 2010/11 flooding in Victoria, Australia. However, significant challenges remain for managing transboundary flood risk (at all scales), protecting existing property at risk from flooding, and ensuring equitable outcomes in terms of risk reduction for all. Adaptive management also raises questions about the wider preparedness of society to systematically monitor and respond to evolving flood risks and vulnerabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Holocene coastal evolution has been extensively studied by workers from various earth science disciplines, particularly sedimentologists and geomorphologists. Some of these studies have focused on the history of regional sea-level changes in various ocean basins and the mechanisms – such as eustasy, glacio-isostasy, sediment compaction, neotectonics and climatic forces – involved in such changes. Although beach ridges have been used to identify steps in coastal evolution, only in a few cases have beach ridge systems been investigated with respect to event histories (for example, cyclones and tsunamis). Beach ridge systems, however, belong to the most promising geo-archives for the study of climate change and sea-level variations over the Holocene, as well as for deciphering event histories. This paper presents examples of some studies in this field, in relation to a global overview of beach ridge systems and their morphological characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reflects on the extensive literature on environmental sustainability that has been produced over the last two decades, and proposes a new approach for environmental policy that goes beyond the cost-benefit analysis that has proved so difficult to implement for non-marginal environmental issues. This approach combines the Safe Minimum Standard approach, which was proposed many years ago, with the concepts of environmental functions and ecosystem goods and services, which have been developed much more recently. It is shown that this approach provides the basis for a robust calculation of sustainability across different environmental themes, following which a ‘sustainability gap’, showing the extent to which this standard is not being met, may be computed. This gap may be expressed in both physical and monetary terms, which permits the formulation of sustainability performance in a scientifically robust, easily communicable indicator that may be compared with GDP. While there appear to be no insurmountable scientific or practical obstacles to the full operationalization of this approach, it remains to be seen whether human societies are sufficiently concerned about the implications of continuing environmental unsustainability to make the resources available for such operationalization, and to enact the policies to allow the sustainability standards to be met. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The recent rapid mass loss of mountain glaciers in response to climate warming has been reported for high and low latitudes all over the Earth. The paper analyses and discusses the recent evolution of a representative glacierized group within the Italian Alps, the Piazzi—Dosdè, where small glaciers are experiencing considerable retreat and shrinking. We analysed aerial photos to calculate area and geometry changes in the time window 1954—2003, and glaciological and geomorphological surveys were also performed. The estimated area change during 1954—2003 was —3.97 km2 (—51% of the area coverage in 1954). Area reduction increased more recently: area change during 1991—2003 (12 years) was —1.74 km2, against —0.67 km2 during 1981—1991 (10 years), and —1.57 km 2 during 1954—1981 (27 years). Moreover, analysis of the most recent orthophotos acquired during the summer of 2003 under exceptional conditions (i.e. total absence of snow cover) allowed observation and mapping of changes affecting glacier shape and morphology, including growing rock outcrops, tongue separations, formation of proglacial lakes, increasing supraglacial debris and collapse structures. Such processes cause positive feedbacks that accelerate further glacier disintegration once they appear. From a geodynamical perspective, the Dosdè Piazzi is now experiencing transition from a glacial system to a paraglacial one; areas where in the past the shaping and driving factors were glaciers are now subject to the action of melting water, slope evolution and periglacial processes. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Discharge from the largest karst spring in north China, the Niangziguan Springs, has been declining since the 1950s. This paper examines the response of these springs to climatic change and anthropogenic influence by attempting a model-based discrimination between phases in the stream discharge record. In Niangziguan Springs Basin, the exploitation of karst groundwater began in 1979. Accordingly, the spring discharge data were divided into two phases: pre-1979 and post-1979. In the first phase (1957-78) the spring discharge was believed to be affected solely by climate change, and in the second phase (1979-2007) the spring discharge was influenced by both climate change and human activities. Using grey system theory, a discharge model was estimated for the first phase. Extrapolating the model, we obtained a projection of the spring discharge during the second phase. Using a water balance calculation, we discerned the respective effects of climate change and human activities on depletion of spring discharge for the second phase. The results show that the contribution of climate change to depletion of Niangziguan Springs is 2.30m3/s and the contribution of anthropogenic activities ranges from 1.89 to 2.90 m3/s, although this assumes a constant for the climate change effect. Accordingly, the anthropogenic effects have been approaching and surpassing the effects of climate change during the second phase. With respect to the impact of human activities on spring discharge, groundwater abstraction accounts for only about 34-52% of the declines; 48-66% of the declines are related to other human activities, such as dewatering from coal mining, dam building and deforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water erosion is the most destructive erosion type worldwide, causing serious land degradation and environmental deterioration. Against a background of climate change and accelerated human activities, changes in natural rainfall regimes have taken place and will be expected to become more pronounced in future decades. Long-term shifts may challenge the existing cultivation systems worldwide and eventually alter the spatiotemporal patterns of land use and topography. Meanwhile, specific features of soil crusting/sealing, plant litter and its decomposition, and antecedent soil moisture content (ASMC) will accompany rainfall variability. All these changes will increase pressures on soil erosion and hydrological processes, making accurate erosion prediction and control more difficult. An improved knowledge and understanding of this issue, therefore, is essential for dealing with the forthcoming challenges regarding soil and water conservation practices. In this paper, the characteristics of changes in natural rainfall, its role on terrestrial ecosystems, the challenges, and its effect on surface water erosion dynamics are elaborated and discussed. The major priorities for future research are also highlighted, and it is hoped that this will promote a better understanding of water erosion processes and related hydrological issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large, infrequent fires (LIFs) can have substantial impacts on both ecosystems and the economy. To better understand LIFs and to better predict the effects of human management and climate change on their occurrence, we must first determine the factors that produce them. Here, we review local and regional literature investigating the drivers of LIFs. The emerging conceptual model proposes that ecosystems can be typified based on climatic conditions that determine both fuel moisture and fuel amount. The concept distinguishes three ecosystem types: (1) biomass-rich, rarely dry ecosystems where fuel moisture rather than fuel amount limits LIFs; (2) biomass-poor, at least seasonally dry ecosystems where fuel amount rather than fuel moisture limits LIFs; and (3) biomass-poor, rarely dry ecosystems where both fuel amount and fuel moisture limit the occurrence of LIFs. Our main goal in this paper is to discuss the drivers of LIFs and the three mentioned ecosystem types in a global context. Further, we will discuss the drivers that are not included within the ‘fuels’ versus ‘climate’ discussion. Finally, we will address the question: what kinds of additional information are needed if models predicting LIFs are to be coupled with global climate models? As with all generalizations, there are local deviations and modifications due to processes such as disturbance interaction or human impact. These processes tend to obscure the general patterns of the occurrence of LIFs and are likely to cause much of the observed controversy and confusion in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Retention and sequestration of soil organic matter is extremely important for the maintenance of soil structure, agricultural productivity and carbon sequestration. Research in soil organic matter has advanced on many fronts in the last half century. During this time understanding of the factors governing plant litter decomposition has increased considerably resulting in the formulation of process and organism-based models. Remote sensing has been shown to be useful for quickly monitoring stocks of soil organic carbon in the topsoil although much remains to be done to establish its efficacy. Fluxes of soil organic matter in the changing climatic scenarios have been studied though outcomes remain debatable. In this paper an attempt is made to present these various aspects of soil organic matter cohesively. The focus is mainly on litter decomposition, models and monitoring methods, role of soil aggregates and erosion, impact of climate change on long-term dynamics of soil organic matter and impending research themes needing further attention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the sediment delivery process at the drainage basin scale remains a challenge in erosion and sedimentation research. In the absence of reliable spatially distributed processbased models for the prediction of sediment transport at the drainage basin scale, area-specific sediment yield (SSY; t km-2 y-1) is often assumed to decrease with increasing drainage basin area (A). As the measurement of A is relatively simple, this assumption is frequently used for prediction of SSY in ungauged basins. However, over the last two decades several studies reported a positive or nonlinear relation between A and SSY. Various authors have suggested diverse explanations for these opposing trends. This paper provides an overview of the different observed trends and summarizes the explanations for each trend. Furthermore, three typical trends are identified to conceptualize the main driving forces of the relation between A and SSY. First of all, it is emphasized that erosion and sediment deposition processes are scale dependent, and going from small (~104km2) a decrease in SSY is observed when drainage density decreases or channel banks are stabilized. Finally, spatial patterns in lithology, land cover, climate or topography can cause SSY to increase or decrease at any basin area and can therefore result in non-linear relations with A. Altogether, with increasing A often first a rise and then a decrease in SSY is observed. The decrease can be absent or can be postponed within a region due to local factors of which lithology, land cover, climate and topography are the most important ones. The large regional, local and even temporal variability in the trend between A and SSY implies that prediction of SSY based on A alone is troublesome and preferably spatially distributed information on land use, climate, lithology, topography and dominant erosion processes is required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prediction of the impact of anthropogenic land use change on the climate system hinges on the ability to properly model the interaction between the heterogeneous land surface and the atmosphere in global climate models. This paper contains a review of techniques in general use for modeling this interaction in general circulation models (GCMs) that have been used to assess the impact of land use change on climate. The review includes a summary of GCM simulations of land cover change using these techniques, along with a description of the simulated physical mechanisms by which land cover change affects the climate. The vertical extent to which surface heterogeneities retain their individual character is an important consideration for the land-atmosphere coupling, and the description of a recently developed technique that improves this aspect of the coupling is presented. The differences in the simulated climate between this new technique and a technique in general use include the presence of a boundary layer feedback mechanism that is not present in simulations with the standard technique. We postulate that the new technique when implemented in a GCM has the potential to guide an improved understanding of the mechanisms by which anthropogenic land use change affects climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

River basins in Great Britain and Ireland have been characterized by periods of hillslope and valley floor instability during the Holocene, reflecting sensitivity to both climate change and anthropogenic disturbance. In contrast to climatic controls, which have been relatively well documented, human impacts on and interactions with river basins remain unclear. There is now, however, a growing impetus to elucidate more fully the impact of anthropogenic activity on sediment supply and runoff, given that land-use change is thought to have exacerbated recent flooding in the UK (eg, the 'Millennium' floods of 2000). The aim of this paper is to critically review the significance of Holocene land use on hillslope and valley floor stability in Great Britain and Ireland. The most widely reported impacts of land-use change on geomorphic activity include hillslope erosion and gully development, valley floor alluviation, river channel incision and elevated water tables. In the majority of cases, however, causal relationships are difficult to establish, due primarily to inadequate dating control. Even where geomorphic instability can be linked to land-use change, it is apparent that eroded material is often stored as colluvium, which together with evidence of diachronus hillslope and valley floor instability, raises important questions and identifies uncertainties regarding the dynamics and extent of sediment transfer within river basins. Such uncertainty has important implications for understanding how river basins will behave in response to future environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water, wind and tillage erosion are well-studied soil erosion processes. However, there is another process of soil erosion that is rarely considered in the field of earth sciences but one that should not be neglected when calculating soil denudation rates and sediment budgets, i. e., soil loss due to crop harvesting (SLCH). Loose soil and soil adhering to the crop and rock fragments are harvested and exported from the field along with crops such as sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.), potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) and chicory (Cichorium intybus L.). In this paper several assessments of SLCH found in the literature are listed, revealing that soil loss due to crop harvesting may range from a few Mg up to a few tens of Mg per hectare per harvest. As most literature discussing this soil loss does not originate from the field of earth sciences, and terms used to describe this phenomenon are not standardized, a terminology is proposed to describe soil losses due to crop harvesting compatible with terms used in the field of soil erosion. Furthermore, the parameters determining SLCH are reviewed based on a detailed literature study that focuses mainly on sugar beet. These parameters may be grouped into four factors, i.e.soil, crop, agronomic practices and harvest technique. Variations in soil moisture and soil texture cause the largest variations in SLCH, although other factors, such as harvest technique, also play an important role. Given the importance of SLCH in terms of on-site and off-site effects, more research is needed to quantify SLCH under different environmental conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dew has broad relevance to physical geography and many human activities. This paper reviews the observation and simulation of rural and urban dew, and the implications of dew as a climatic phenomenon. There is no universal protocol for measuring dew (i.e., condensation on cooled surfaces), its component fluxes (dewfall and distillation) or guttation, which is 'dewdrops' exuded from leaves. The many methods that exist to measure dew and surface moisture range from simple visual assessment, to electronic wetness sensors, lysimetry and remote sensing. Most studies of dew are rural; urban dew data are rare and studies seldom address dew in patchy landscapes, e.g., a forest clearing. Hardware dew models are rare. Numerous numerical models exist to simulate or forecast dew on rural crops but few address dew for surfaces other than leaves, e.g., a cocoa pod or road. There is a general consensus in the literature that dew is reduced or absent in cities because of the urban heat island effect and reduced vapour supply.However,little data exist to test this. Given the broad relevance of dew to many topics, future studies of dew in complex landscapes, including urban areas, would prove valuable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper reviews measurements of glacier mass balance in the period 1946-95. There are data for 246 glaciers but most records are quite short. The available mass-balance data are biased to Western Europe, North America and the former USSR with too few measurements from other parts of the world. The data are also biased towards wetter conditions with too few data from the dry-cold glaciers that are typical of many regions. There is no sign of any recent global trend towards increased glacier melting, and the data mainly reflect variations within and between regions. The 'direct method' of measuring glacier mass balance is with stakes and snowpits but it is a very laborious way of measuring long-term glacier changes. Stake/snowpit measurements should be more integrated in future with geodetic and remote sensing methods, especially laser profiling, and with modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]