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Large-magnitude earthquakes in northern Chile and southern Peru occur every 108 years on average. It should be noted that over 143 years since the catastrophic earthquake of May 9, 1877, any similar events were completely absent. In 2007, a 7.7 Mw earthquake occurred near Tocopilla, and in 2014 a catastrophic M = 8.1 earthquake hit Pisagua. It is believed that only part of the energy accumulated over 143 years has been released during those events, while most of it is yet to be released. Thus, we can conclude that a serious tsunami hazard exists for all coastal cities of southern Peru and northern Chile. In this paper, on the basis of the available historical data and geodynamic studies, numerical simulation of the historical catastrophic earthquake and tsunami of May 9, 1877 is carried out assuming the blockwise earthquake source configurations. We implemented 23 simulation scenarios for different kinematic behavior patterns of such a source, sequentially updating the source fragmentation to reduce the misfit between the simulated and observed wave height data. Using the proposed methodology, for each scenario, the generation of a tsunami source is simulated and the computation of wave fields up to the 5-m isobath is carried out. The results obtained are compared with historical data. Analysis of the entire set of simulated earthquake scenarios makes it possible to choose a tsunamigenic earthquake scenario with the most adequate characteristics of tsunami waves in the coastal zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chilean subduction zone is one of the most active of the world with M = 8 or larger interplate thrust earthquakes occurring every 10 years or so on the average. The identification and characterization of pulses propagated from dominant asperities that control the rupture of these earthquakes is an important problem for seismology and especially for seismic hazard assessment since it can reduce the earthquake destructiveness potential. A number of studies of large Chilean earthquakes have revealed that the source time functions of these events are composed of a number of distinct energy arrivals. In this paper, we identify and characterize the high frequency pulses of dominant asperities using near source strong motion records. Two very well recorded interplate earthquakes, the 1985 Central Chile (Ms = 7.8) and the 2007 Tocopilla (Mw = 7.7), are considered. In particular, the 2007 Tocopilla earthquake was recorded by a network with absolute time and continuos recording. From the study of these strong motion data it is possible to identify the arrival of large pulses coming from different dominant asperities. The recognition of the key role of dominant asperities in seismic hazard assessment can reduce overestimations due to scattering of attenuation formulas that consider epicentral distance or shortest distance to the fault rather than the asperity distance. The location and number of dominant asperities, their shape, the amplitude and arrival time of pulses can be one of the principal factors influencing Chilean seismic hazard assessment and seismic design. The high frequency pulses identified in this paper have permitted us to extend the range of frequency in which the 1985 Central Chile and 2007 Tocopilla earthquakes were studied. This should allow in the future the introduction of this seismological result in the seismic design of earthquake engineering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 16 September 2015 Illapel, Chile, earthquake and associated tsunami have been studied by many researchers from various aspects. This paper reviews studies on the source model of the earthquake and examines tsunami data. The Illapel earthquake occurred in the source region of previous earthquakes in 1943 and 1880. The earthquake source was studied using various geophysical data, such as near-field seismograms, teleseismic waveform and backprojection, GPS and InSAR data, and tsunami waveforms. Most seismological analyses show a duration of ~100 s with a peak at ~50 s. The spatial distribution has some variety, but they all have the largest slip varying from 5 to 16 m located at 31°S, 72°W, which is ~70 km NW of the epicenter. The shallow slip seems to be extended to the trench axis. A deeper slip patch was proposed from high-frequency seismic data. A tsunami earthquake model with a total duration of 250 s and a third asperity south of the epicenter is also proposed, but we show that the tsunami data do not support this model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 16 September 2015 MW8.3 Illapel Earthquake generated a tsunami that caused severe building and infrastructure damage in Coquimbo, Chile. Initial reports indicated numerous buildings, transport, energy, water and coastal protection structures sustained varying levels of damage in response to tsunami exposure. A digital 'census style' survey was carried out in Coquimbo to measure and record tsunami hazard characteristics and associated buildings and infrastructure network component damage. Flow depths measured from 655 watermarks ranged from 0.1 to 4.7 m, with a 1.47 m mean and 1.02 m standard deviation. Over 3000 damage samples were recorded for tsunami exposed buildings and infrastructure components. Damage levels for 545 buildings showed most sustained partial but repairable damage at tsunami flow depths up to 2 m. A further 2544 damage samples were collected for transport, energy, water infrastructure network components and coastal protection structures. We observed undamaged infrastructure components in high proportions and observed that complete component damage was often caused by secondary hazards (e.g. debris) or cascading impacts where seawall and stormwater culvert failures damaged co-located roads, pathways and utility poles. Future investigations of the hydrodynamic tsunami characteristics influencing infrastructure component fragility will support the analysis of physical damage to single components and cascading impacts across multiple infrastructure networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We calculated apparent stresses for 70 earthquakes (MW ≥ 5.0) occurring in the aftershock region of the 2010 MW8.8 Bio-Bío earthquake from January 1990 to September 2019. We identified that the average apparent stress was approximately 0.487 MPa between January 1990 and December 2005 and approximately 1.063 MPa within the period from January 2006 to January 2010. The latter one is 2.2-fold greater than the former, representing a significant difference as determined by a z test, with a 99% confidence level. Moreover, we analyzed the temporal evolution of the apparent stress and found that apparent stress rapidly increased from 0.43 to 1.2 MPa during the pre-event period from March 2006 to the occurrence of the Bio-Bío MW8.8 mainshock, and this increased apparent stress was found to be significant at the 98% confidence level. Furthermore, we calculated the spatial distribution of the apparent stress in the study region and observed two higher-apparent-stress regions, within one of which the epicenter of the MW8.8 event was located. On the basis of the inverse correlation between b value and stress, the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of b values were calculated and compared with those of the apparent stress. The comparison showed that the b values decreased approximately 4 years before the occurrence of the mainshock, while the apparent stress increased substantially; for the region of lower b, the apparent stress is higher, and vice versa. Therefore, the inverse correlation between b value and stress is supported by the results obtained in the present study and can be probably considered as one of the precursors to great earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis of geodetic data obtained by the global positioning system (GPS) leads to better understanding of earthquake origins and helps to interpret their sequences. For this, we cross-compare the pre- and postseismic displacements associated with great earthquakes and derived from GPS observations and seismic catalogs. In a pilot study of the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman Mw9.2 earthquake in the Indian Ocean, the 2011 Tohoku Mw9.1 earthquake in Japan, the 2010 offshore Maule Mw8.8 and the 2015 Illapel Mw8.3 earthquakes in Chile, the 2018 Kodiak Mw7.9 earthquake in the Gulf of Alaska, and the 2016 Kaikoura Mw7.8 earthquake in New Zealand, we consider GPS data from stations of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) along with integral characteristics of the regional seismic regime, including the accumulated displacement derived from the catalogs of earthquake hypocenter parameters. We did not find any prominent transient pattern in the daily geodetic measurements registered before the six great earthquakes at the nearest GNSS stations. We found that (a) the six cases exhibit different GPS versus seismic displacement correlation patterns before and after the great earthquakes, (b) the observed high variability of the correlation between geodetic ρ(t) and seismic ∑(t) integrals appears indicative of a partial contribution of earthquakes to naturally haphazard sporadic movement of lithospheric blocks of different size, and (c) GPS data confirm the existence of intermittent long periods of regionally stable levels of seismic regime reflected in the control parameter of the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes that may change as a result of mid- or even short-term bursts of activity associated with catastrophic events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismological observations provide essential input parameters for numerical tsunami simulations. Here, we present source mechanism parameters, finite-fault source rupture models and numerical tsunami simulation results for the destructive October 28, 2012 Haida Gwaii-Canada (Mw 7.7) and September 16, 2015 Illapel-Chile (Mw 8.3) earthquakes and resulting tsunamis. These two earthquakes were controlled by active tectonic features along the subduction zones that had developed in response to the convergent movements of lithospheric plates. The faulting geometry (strike, dip, and rake angles), focal depth, fault dimensions, average and maximum slip values on the fault planes and seismic moments of the earthquakes are estimated by analyzing teleseismic long-period P- and SH-waves and broadband P-waveforms and using waveform inversion and hybrid back-projection methods. The obtained slip models of the earthquakes reveal heterogeneous slip distributions on fault planes with long source durations (~ 80 s and 150 s) and low stress drop values (10–15 bars). Numerical simulations of tsunami wave propagation are further performed using the uniform and non-uniform slip models and nonlinear long-wave equations in spherical coordinates. The shape and arrival times of leading tsunami waves are adequately constrained particularly with the heterogeneous slip distribution models. The general characteristics of synthetic tsunami waveforms (e.g., amplitude, shape, arrival time) calculated using the non-uniform slip model, are more consistent with the observed tsunami records than those of a uniform slip model. It is further seen that simulation results using preliminary and fast slip models for both earthquakes give only approximate early tsunami estimates; tsunami wave heights and arrival times to the coasts are mostly not well simulated. The results indicate that tsunami simulations based on finite-fault source slip models likely contribute to the determination of tsunamigenic coastal regions by revealing locations, arrival times, amplitudes, and directions of tsunami waves within a close approximation to observed records off-shore and far from the source region. They provide sufficient information to facilitate tsunami warning and mitigation challenges after the destructive earthquakes. We further suggest that joint inversions of GPS, tsunami, teleseismic and strong ground motion records and higher resolution bathymetry data are needed in order to obtain better correlations between observed and synthetic tsunami data, especially for the later arriving waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past decade, the number of open-ocean gauges capable of parsing information about a passing tsunami has steadily increased, particularly through national cable networks and international buoyed efforts such as the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART). This information is analyzed to disseminate tsunami warnings to affected regions. However, most current warnings that incorporate tsunami are directed at mid- and far-field localities. In this study, we analyze the region surrounding four seismically active subduction zones, Cascadia, Japan, Chile, and Java, for their potential to facilitate local tsunami early warning using such systems. We assess which locations currently have instrumentation in the right locations for direct tsunami observations with enough time to provide useful warning to the nearest affected coastline—and which are poorly suited for such systems. Our primary findings are that while some regions are ill-suited for this type of early warning, such as the coastlines of Chile, other localities, like Java, Indonesia, could incorporate direct tsunami observations into their hazard forecasts with enough lead time to be effective for coastal community emergency response. We take into account the effect of tsunami propagation with regard to shallow bathymetry on the fore-arc as well as the effect of earthquake source placement. While it is impossible to account for every type of off-shore tsunamigenic event in these locales, this study aims to characterize a typical large tsunamigenic event occurring in the shallow part of the megathrust as a guide in what is feasible with early tsunami warning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the effect that along-dip slip distribution has on the near-shore tsunami amplitudes and on coastal land-level changes in the region of central Chile (29°-37°S). Here and all along the Chilean megathrust, the seismogenic zone extends beneath dry land, and thus, tsunami generation and propagation is limited to its seaward portion, where the sensitivity of the initial tsunami waveform to dislocation model inputs, such as slip distribution, is greater. We considered four distributions of earthquake slip in the dip direction, including a spatially uniform slip source and three others with typical bell-shaped slip patterns that differ in the depth range of slip concentration. We found that a uniform slip scenario predicts much lower tsunami amplitudes and generally less coastal subsidence than scenarios that assume bell-shaped distributions of slip. Although the finding that uniform slip scenarios underestimate tsunami amplitudes is not new, it has been largely ignored for tsunami hazard assessment in Chile. Our simulations results also suggest that uniform slip scenarios tend to predict later arrival times of the leading wave than bell-shaped sources. The time occurrence of the largest wave at a specific site is also dependent on how the slip is distributed in the dip direction; however, other factors, such as local bathymetric configurations and standing edge waves, are also expected to play a role. Arrival time differences are especially critical in Chile, where tsunamis arrive earlier than elsewhere. We believe that the results of this study will be useful to both public and private organizations for mapping tsunami hazard in coastal areas along the Chilean coast, and, therefore, help reduce the risk of loss and damage caused by future tsunamis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent expansion of dense GPS networks over plate boundaries allows for remarkably precise mapping of interseismic coupling along active faults. The interseismic coupling coefficient is related to the ratio between slipping velocity on the fault during the interseismic period and the long-term plates velocity, but the interpretation of coupling in terms of mechanical behavior of the fault is still unclear. Here, we investigate the link between coupling and seismicity over the Chilean subduction zone that ruptured three times in the last 5 years with major earthquakes (Maule Mw 8.8 in 2010, Iquique Mw 8.1 in 2014 and Illapel Mw 8.4 in 2015). We combine recent GPS data acquired over the margin (38°-18°S) with older data to get the first nearly continuous picture of the interseismic coupling variations on the subduction interface. Here, we show that at least six low coupling zones (LCZ), areas where coupling is low relatively to the neighboring highly coupled segments can be identified. We also find that for the three most recent Mw > 8 events, co-seismic asperities correlate well with highly coupled segments, while LCZs behaved as barriers and stopped the ruptures. The relation between coupling and background seismicity in the interseismic period before the events is less clear. However, we note that swarm sequences are prone to occur in intermediate coupling areas at the transition between LCZ and neighboring segments, and that the background seismicity tends to concentrate on the downdip part of the seismogenic locked zone. Thus, highly coupled segments usually exhibit low background seismicity. In this overall context, the Metropolitan segment that partly ruptured during the 2015 Illapel earthquake appears as an outlier since both coupling and background seismicity were high before the rupture, raising the issue of the remaining seismic hazard in this very densely populated area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major interplate earthquake occurred on September 16th, 2015, near Illapel, central Chile. This event generated a tsunami of moderate height, however, one which caused significant near field damage. In this study, we model the tsunami produced by some rapid and preliminary fault models with the potential to be calculated within tens of minutes of the event origin time. We simulate tsunami signals from two different heterogeneous slip models, a homogeneous source based on parameters from the global CMT Project, and furthermore we used plate coupling data from GPS observations to construct a heterogeneous fault based on a priori knowledge of the subduction zone. We compare the simulated signals with the observed tsunami at tide gauges located along the Chilean coast and at offshore DART buoys. For this event, concerning rapid response, the homogeneous source and coupling model represent the tsunami at least as well as the heterogeneous sources. We suggest that the initial heterogeneous fault models could be better constrained with continuous GPS measurements in the rupture area, and additionally DART records directly in front of the rupture area, to improve the tsunami simulation based on quickly calculated models for near coastal areas. Additionally, in terms of tsunami modeling, the source estimated from prior plate coupling information in this case is representative of the event that later occurs; placing further importance on the need to monitor subduction zones with GPS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]