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Twenty papers on the study of tsunamis and respective tsunamigenic earthquakes are included in Volume II of the PAGEOPH topical issue 'Tsunami Science: Ten Years after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami'. The papers presented in this second of two special volumes of Pure and Applied Geophysics reflect the state of tsunami science during this time, including five papers devoted to new findings specifically in the Indian Ocean. Two papers compile results from global observations and eight papers cover Pacific Ocean studies, focusing mainly on the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. Remaining papers in this volume describe studies in the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea and tsunami source studies. Overall, the volume not only addresses the pivotal 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku tsunamis, but also examines the tsunami hazard posed to other critical coasts in the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two large earthquakes occurred in the western part of China in 2008, one of them being the Yutian (35.6°N, 81.6°E) M7.3 earthquake that occurred on March 21 (BJT) and the other the Wenchuan (31.0°N, 103.4°E) M8.0 earthquake that occurred on May 12 (BJT). In this paper, the West Continental China (included in 20.0°-50.0°N, 70.0°-110.0°E region) was the study region for verifyong the predictability of the pattern informatics (PI) method using the receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) test and R score test. Different forecasting maps with different calculating parameters were obtained. The calculating parameters were the grid size Δ x, base time t, reference interval t to t, change interval t to t, and forecasting interval t to t. In this paper, the base time t fixed to June 1, 1971, the ending forecast time t fixed to June 1, 2008, and the forecasting interval t to t changed from 1 to 10 years, and the grid sizes were chosen as 1° × 1° and 2° × 2°, respectively. The results show that the PI method could forecast the Yutian M7.3 and Wenchuan M8.0 earthquakes only using suitable parameters. Comparing the forecast results of grid sizes 1° × 1° and 2° × 2°, the models with 2° × 2° grids were better. Comparing the forecast results with different forecasting windows from 1 to 10 years, the models with forecasting windows of 4-8 years were better using the ROC test, and the models with forecasting windows of 7-10 years were better using the R score test. The forecast efficiency of the model with a grid size of 2° × 2° and forecast window of 8 years was the best one using either the ROC test or the R score test. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution laws of LURR (Loading-Unloading Response Ratio) before strong earthquakes, especially the peak point of LURR, are described in this paper. The results of four methods (experimental, numerical simulation, seismic data analysis and with damage mechanics analysis) lead to a consistent conclusion-the evolution laws of LURR before strong earthquakes are that, at the early stage of the seismic cycle, LURR will fluctuate around 1 and in the late stage, it rises swiftly and to its peak point. At some time after this peak point, a catastrophic event or events occur. These do not occur at the peak point, but lag behind. The lag time which is denoted by T depends on the magnitude M of the upcoming earthquake among other factors. In order to consider the influence of geophysical parameters in a specific region such as $$ \dot{\gamma }, $$ E and J, where $$ \dot{\gamma } $$ is the shear strain rate of tectonic loading in situ, E is the sum of radiated energy of all earthquake occurring in a specific region measured during a long time duration (110 years in this paper) divided by the area of the region and the time duration, and J is a parameter denoting the LURR anomaly area weighted with Y (the value of LURR) and represents the expanse and degree of the seismogenic zone. The dimensional analysis method has been used to reveal the relation between M, T and other parameters in situ for more reliable earthquake prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heavy tailed random variables (rvs) have proven to be an essential element in modeling a wide variety of natural and human-induced processes, and the sums of heavy tailed rvs represent a particularly important construction in such models. Oriented toward both geophysical and statistical audiences, this paper discusses the appearance of the Pareto law in seismology and addresses the problem of the statistical approximation for the sums of independent rvs with common Pareto distributionF(x)=1 -x-a for 1/2

- An algorithm recently developed by RUNDLEet al. (2002) to find regions of anomalous seismic activity associated with large earthquakes identified the location of anM w = 5.6 earthquake near Calexico, Mexico. In this paper we analyze the regional seismicity before this event, and a nearbyM w = 5.7 event, using time-to-failure algorithms developed by BOWMANet al. (1998) and BOWMAN and KING (2001a,b). The former finds the radius of a circular region surrounding the epicenter that optimizes the time-to-failure acceleration of seismic release. The latter optimizes acceleration based on the expected stress accumulation pattern for a dislocation source. Both methods found a period of accelerating seismicity in an optimal region, the size of which agrees with previously proposed scaling relations. This positive result suggests that the Rundle algorithm may provide a useful technique to identify regions of accelerating seismicity, which can then be analyzed using signal optimization time-to-failure techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— The Indo-Burma (Myanmar) subduction boundary is highly oblique to the direction of relative velocity of the Indian tectonic plate with respect to the Eurasian plate. The area includes features of active subduction zones such as a Wadati-Benioff zone of earthquakes, a magmatic arc, thrust and fold belts. It also has features of oblique subduction such as: an arc-parallel strike-slip fault (Sagaing Fault) that takes up a large fraction of the northward component of motion and a buttress (the Mishmi block) that resists the motion of the fore-arc sliver. In this paper, I have examined the seismicity, slip vectors and principal axes of the focal mechanisms of the earthquakes to look for features of active subduction zones and for evidence of slip partitioning as observed in other subduction zones. The data set consists of Harvard CMT solutions of 89 earthquakes (1977–1999 with 4.8≦̸Mw≦̸7.2 and depths between 3–140 km). Most of these events are shallow and intermediate depth events occurring within the Indian plate subducting eastward beneath the Indo-Burman ranges. Some shallow events within the fore-arc region have arc-parallel Paxes, reflecting buttressing of the fore-arc sliver at its leading edge. Some of the shallowest events have nearly E-W oriented P axes which might account for recent folding and thrusting. Examination of earthquake slip vectors in this region shows that the slip vector azimuths of earthquakes in the region between 20°–26°N are rotated towards the trench normal, which is an indication of partial partitioning of the oblique convergence. It is seen that all aspects of seismicity, including the paucity of shallow underthrusting earthquakes and the orientation of P axes, are consistent with oblique convergence. The conclusions of this paper are consistent with recent geological studies and interpretations such as the coexistence of eastward subduction, volcanic activity and transcurrent movement through mid-Miocene to Quaternary period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— The problem of the coseismic deformation induced by an earthquake on its own fault plane is investigated here. The analysis concentrates on the on-fault displacement field accompanying the occurrence of an earthquake in response to a prescribed uniform shear slip and it is carried out on the basis of the classical analytical model by Okada (1992) for a rectangular fault buried in an elastic homogeneous half-space delimited by a planar free surface. The analysis is subdivided into two separate papers: the first dealing with normal and the second with tangential on-fault displacements. In this first paper, concerning the study of the normal displacement component, the contributions of the source and of the correction introduced by the free surface are investigated separately and their dependence on the fault characteristics is thoroughly discussed. Particular attention is also devoted to the effects of the normal displacement on the fault surface geometry. It will be shown that the main effect is that of deforming the fault itself, with deformation consisting chiefly in a rotation of the plane and in a bending of the fault edges. The rotation angle is negligibly small (on the order of 1–10 μrad) for a single earthquake, although repeated seismic events occurring on the same fault might result in rotations of several degrees over geological time scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— This paper regards the on-fault displacement field generated by an earthquake on its own fault plane, with special attention to the tangential displacement vector. It is the continuation and the completion of a previous paper (Armigliato et al., 2003) concerning the analysis of the normal on-fault displacement component. It is here recognised that in addition to the discontinuous shear displacement, which is the main contribution to the seismic dislocation on the fault, there is a tangential displacement contribution that is continuous across the fault. The continuous tangential displacement is exclusively produced by the presence of the free earth's surface. The tangential displacement vector has non-vanishing components in both directions, parallel as well as perpendicular to the imposed uniform shear slip, the first being predominant on the second. We perform a set of computations aimed at evaluating the dependence of the tangential displacement magn itude on the relevant fault parameters for basic cases of rectangular faults embedded in a homogeneous half-space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crustal gravitational potential energy (GPE) change induced by earthquakes is an important subject in geophysics and seismology. For the past forty years the research on this subject stayed in the stage of qualitative estimate. In recent few years the 3D dynamic faulting theory provided a quantitative solution of this subject. The theory deduced a quantitative calculating formula for the crustal GPE change using the mathematic method of tensor analysis under the principal stresses system. This formula contains only the vertical principal stress, rupture area, slip, dip, and rake; it does not include the horizontal principal stresses. It is just involved in simple mathematical operations and does not hold complicated surface or volume integrals. Moreover, the hanging wall vertical moving (up or down) height has a very simple expression containing only slip, dip, and rake. The above results are significant to investigate crustal GPE change. Commonly, the vertical principal stress is related to the gravitational field, substituting the relationship between the vertical principal stress and gravitational force into the above formula yields an alternative formula of crustal GPE change. The alternative formula indicates that even with lack of in situ borehole measured stress data, scientists can still quantitatively calculate crustal GPE change. The 3D dynamic faulting theory can be used for research on continental fault earthquakes; it also can be applied to investigate subduction earthquakes between oceanic and continental plates. Subduction earthquakes hold three types: (a) crust only on the vertical up side of the rupture area; (b) crust and seawater both on the vertical up side of the rupture area; (c) crust only on the vertical up side of the partial rupture area, and crust and seawater both on the vertical up side of the remaining rupture area. For each type we provide its quantitative formula of the crustal GPE change. We also establish a simplified model (called CRW Model) as follows: for Type B and Type C subduction earthquakes, if the seawater average depth on the vertical up side of the rupture area is less than a tenth of the hypocenter depth, then take the approximation that the seawater above the continental plate is replaced by the upper crustal material of the continental plate. The formula of quantitative calculating the crustal GPE change is also provided for this model. Finally, for 16 September 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel Chile earthquake, we apply CRW Model and obtain the following results: the crustal GPE change is equal to 1.8 × 10 J, and the hanging wall vertical moving-up height is 1.9 m with respect to the footwall. We believe this paper might be the first report on the quantitative solution of the crustal GPE change for this subduction earthquake; our results and related method will be helpful in research into the earthquakes in Peru-Chile subduction zone and the Andean orogeny. In short, this study expounds a new method for quantitative determining the crustal GPE change caused by subduction earthquakes, which is different from other existing methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 16 September 2015 Illapel, Chile, earthquake and associated tsunami have been studied by many researchers from various aspects. This paper reviews studies on the source model of the earthquake and examines tsunami data. The Illapel earthquake occurred in the source region of previous earthquakes in 1943 and 1880. The earthquake source was studied using various geophysical data, such as near-field seismograms, teleseismic waveform and backprojection, GPS and InSAR data, and tsunami waveforms. Most seismological analyses show a duration of ~100 s with a peak at ~50 s. The spatial distribution has some variety, but they all have the largest slip varying from 5 to 16 m located at 31°S, 72°W, which is ~70 km NW of the epicenter. The shallow slip seems to be extended to the trench axis. A deeper slip patch was proposed from high-frequency seismic data. A tsunami earthquake model with a total duration of 250 s and a third asperity south of the epicenter is also proposed, but we show that the tsunami data do not support this model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Izmir, the third largest city and one of the major economic centers in Turkey, has more than three million residents and one-half million buildings. The city, located in a seismically active region in western Anatolia, was a subject of the 1997 RADIUS (Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas against Seismic Disaster) project. In this paper, the seismic hazard of Izmir is investigated through probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. First, the seismic setting of Izmir is presented. Considering the statistics of earthquakes that took place in the region during the period 1900-2005, a simple seismic hazard model is used to facilitate the assessment. To account for modeling uncertainties associated with the values of seismicity parameters, a logic tree procedure is employed in carrying out the seismic hazard computations. The resulting weighted average seismic hazard, presented in terms of peak ground acceleration and associated probability of exceedence, could be considered the 'best estimate' of seismic hazard for Izmir. Accordingly, for a return period of 475 years, for rock sites, a PGA value of 0.34 g is calculated. This PGA hazard estimate is close to the current code-recommended design acceleration level for Izmir. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, ground motion during the Independence Day earthquake of August 15, 1950 (Mw 8.6, B en-M enahem et al., 1974) in the northeastern part of India is estimated by seismological approaches. A hybrid simulation technique which combines the low frequency ground motion simulated from an analytical source mechanism model with the stochastically simulated high-frequency components is used for obtaining the acceleration time histories. A series of ground motion simulations are carried out to estimate the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations at important cities and towns in the epicentral region. One sample PGA distribution in the epicentral region encompassing the epicenter is also obtained. It is found that PGA in the epicentral region has exceeded 1 g during this earthquake. The estimated PGA’s are validated to the extent possible using the MMI values. The simulated acceleration time histories can be used for the assessment of important engineering structures in northeastern India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a list of published papers authored or co-authored by geophysicist Keiiti Aki. Periodical articles the list include "Quantitative prediction of earthquake occurrence as stochastic phenomena," "Thermal processes near the earth's crust," "Relay computer for correlogram analysis," and "Correlogram analysis of seismograms."

— The study of surface deformation due to seismic activity is often made using dislocations with uniform slip and simple geometries. A better modeling of coseismic and postseismic surface displacements can be obtained by using dislocations with variable slip and nonregular shapes. This is consistent with the asperity model of fault surfaces, assuming a friction distribution on faults made of locked zones with much higher friction than surrounding zones. In this paper we consider the 1997–1998 Colfiorito seismic sequence. The coseismic surface displacements in the Colfiorito zone are used in order to infer the slip distribution on the fault surface at different stages of the sequence. The displacement field has been modeled varying the slip distribution on the fault, and comparing the deformation observed by SAR and GPS techniques with model results. The slip distribution is calculated by Monte Carlo simulations on a normal fault with the dip angle equal to 40°. A good approximation is obtained by using square asperity units of 1.5×1.5 km2. In the first stage, we employed a simplified model with uniform slip, in which each asperity unit is allowed to slip a constant amount or not to slip at all, and in the second stage, we evaluate the slip distribution in the dislocation area determined by the Monte Carlo inversion: in this case we allow unit cells to undergo different values of slip in order to refine the initial dislocation model. The results show that the 1997 seismic events of the sequence can be modeled by irregular dislocations, obtaining a good fit to the DInSAR and GPS observations. The model also confirms the results of previous studies by a different methodology, defining the distribution of asperities on the fault plane using the fault geometry, the geodetic data and the seismic moment of the 1997–1998 Colfiorito seismic sequence. Furthermore, the analysis of 1997 aftershocks in the seismogenic region shows a strong correlation between most events and the asperity distribution, which can be considered as an independent test of the validity of the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— An overview of the most important developments in Engineering (or Strong Motion) Seismology is presented alongside Professor Keiiti Aki's contributions, who is one of the founders of this field. The mechanics of earthquake rupture are discussed with due emphasis on the various physical phenomena. The presentation is made in a tutorial manner, borrowing freely from Keiiti Aki's papers, and endeavoring to emulate his unique style of clarity, simplicity and synthetic ability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 29 May 2017 Mw 6.6 Poso earthquake occurred in the eastern part of Central Sulawesi with a normal faulting mechanism, which is the largest normal earthquake to have occurred in the region since instrumental records have been available. Approximately 400 aftershocks were well-recorded by the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics' (BMKG) broadband seismic network for 1 month after the mainshock. Here, we obtain the source parameters of the Mw 6.6 mainshock by using moment tensor inversion on seismic data that came from 14 stations within a radius of 7° from the mainshock epicenter. It results in the best point-source solution of 103°, 56°, and −100° for the strike, dip, and rake, respectively, and a centroid depth of 6.4 km. The kinematic solution shows a unilateral rupture process with an average slip of ~ 0.5 m on a 20-km rupture length. The source mechanism indicates the extension behavior in the eastern part of Central Sulawesi and the northward mass extrusion process that occurred in the area during the Quaternary. Based on the seismic source parameters and geomorphologic analysis, we propose the Tokorondo Fault as being responsible for the earthquake. A total of 361 aftershock hypocenters are successfully relocated using the double-difference method and indicate three clusters of the off-fault aftershocks. We calculate the Coulomb failure stress (CFS) changes to investigate the occurrence of these aftershocks. The result indicates that the off-fault aftershocks have mostly occurred within the increased CFS change area with a value > 0.1 bar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Asperity models for ground motion prediction is widely used in Japan. Here we expand the application of these asperity models to predict fault displacement caused by surface rupture. The proposed approach is rather simple and practical for the use in fault displacement hazard analysis in nuclear installations and other critical infrastructures, as it is the emphasis of the current topical issue. The proposed method mainly consists of two steps. The first step consists in the characterization of asperities at the seismogenic zone based on the kinematic asperity source model following Irikura's recipe (Irikura and Miyake in Pure Applied Geophysics, 168:85–104, 2011) for strong ground motion prediction. Since the kinematic model does not take into account surface rupture mechanism, this first step assumes that the fault is buried, and then by trial and error procedure the stress drop on the asperities are estimated, so that the average slip at each asperity be consistent with the ones from the kinematic model. At this stage, the dynamic model predicts strong ground motion consistent with those from the kinematic model. In the second step, the surface rupture is included by calibrating the shallow layer (SL) with stress drop, strength excess and critical slip distance, so that the final fault displacement along the fault be consistent with observations. The 2010 Mw 7.0 Darfield (New Zealand) earthquake is used to test the proposed method. Surface-rupturing was observed in several sites along the main fault reaching values of fault displacement larger than 5 m. The main fault of this earthquake is strike-slip, almost vertical. Therefore, a simplified planar fault asperity model to capture the main features of the fault displacement is assumed. The fault dimensions are assumed to have a length of 60 km and a width of 24 km with three asperities. The preferred model of the first step predicts average slip for each asperity of 2.7, 2.7, and 2 m corresponding, respectively, to stress drops of 6.0 MPa, 8.5 MPa, and 7.0 MPa. In the second step, the surface rupture is calibrated assuming a SL zone of 3 km depth. We found that negative stress drop is not necessary in the SL, because this strongly inhibits surface rupturing. Our preferred model produces fault displacement distribution closer to the observed ones, but average slip at each asperity increases to 3.4 m, 3.2 and 2.8 m. This increase in average slip is due to the contribution of surface rupturing. Ground motion differences between fault-surface rupturing and buried models are negligible, except at the very near-source. These differences are attributed to the SL rupture that mainly affect the ground motion at the very near-source. Overall, our simple asperity model captures the main features of the observed fault displacement and near-source ground motion, proving that the proposed simple and practical two step-procedure provides meaningful estimate of fault displacement and near-source ground motion consistent with observations, as such, this method has the potential to be used in practical fault displacement hazard analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The historical and the present seismicity catalogues of the Garhwal Himalaya have been studied for their spatio-temporal variations and their implications on the seismotectonics of the region. The Micro-Seismicity, Fractal dimensions (Dc) and Frequency Magnitude Distribution (b-value) coupled with the available literature on geology, geomorphology and geophysics have been used to derive the seismotectonics and stress level changes in the region. The seismic cross sections for the relocated micro-seismicity, focal mechanisms and the swath profiles (for the presence of Physiographic Transition 2 (PT2) at the foothill of the Higher Himalaya) indicate the constant presence of the Mid-Crustal Ramp (MCR) in the detachment plane and its active seismogenic nature. The comparison of this scenario suggests the constant presence of seismogenically active MCR structure throughout the Central Seismic Gap. The seismic cross sections further reveal that the sensu stricto Main Central Thrust (Munsiari Thrust) is also a site of generation of the micro-seismicity in few segments due to its reactivation by thrusting along the MCR. The high fractal dimension value (Dc = 1.47) suggests the heterogeneous nature of the region, owing to the presence of local faults and transverse tectonics. The high stress accumulation in the Garhwal Himalaya with low b value (b = 0.70) suggests the high probability of occurrence of a larger or greater earthquake in the near-future. Further, the study also reveals that the 2011 Chamoli earthquake of M 5.0, preceded by a quiescence period of nearly a year shows different stress levels before and after its occurrence, which is well constrained with the increased moderate earthquake activity around the Chamoli region. This increased seismic activity and stress conditions in the Chamoli region suggest the high possibility of the occurrence of major earthquakes, hence the study recommend for a detailed seismic hazard evaluation of the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A preface to the January 1, 2013 issue of the journal "Pure & Applied Geophysics," is presented.

We present a systematic and updated overview of a seismotectonic model for the Po Plain (northern Italy). This flat and apparently quiet tectonic domain is, in fact, rather active as it comprises the shortened foreland and foredeep of both the Southern Alps and the Northern Apennines. Assessing its seismic hazard is crucial due to the concentration of population, industrial activities, and critical infrastructures, but it is also complicated because (a) the region is geologically very diverse, and (b) nearly all potential seismogenic faults are buried beneath a thick blanket of Pliocene-Pleistocene sediments, and thus can be investigated only indirectly. Identifying and parameterizing the potential seismogenic faults of the Po Plain requires proper consideration of their depth, geometry, kinematics, earthquake potential and location with respect to the two confronting orogens. To this end, we subdivided them into four main, homogeneous groups. Over the past 15 years we developed new strategies for coping with this diversity, resorting to different data and modeling approaches as required by each individual fault group. The most significant faults occur beneath the thrust fronts of the Ferrara-Romagna and Emilia arcs, which correspond to the most advanced and buried portions of the Northern Apennines and were the locus of the destructive May 2012 earthquake sequence. The largest known Po Plain earthquake, however, occurred on an elusive reactivated fault cutting the Alpine foreland south of Verona. Significant earthquakes are expected to be generated also by a set of transverse structures segmenting the thrust system, and by the deeper ramps of the Apennines thrusts. The new dataset is intended to be included in the next version of the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS; , version 3.2.0, developed and maintained by INGV) to improve completeness of potential sources for seismic hazard assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The negative binomial distribution is presented as the waiting time distribution of a cyclic Markov model. This cycle simulates the seismic cycle in a fault. As an example, this model, which can describe recurrences with aperiodicities between 0 and 0.5, is used to fit the Parkfield, California earthquake series in the San Andreas Fault. The performance of the model in the forecasting is expressed in terms of error diagrams and compared with other recurrence models from literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of location errors in the performance of seismicity-based forecasting methods was studied here using one particular binary forecast technique, the Pattern Informatics (PI) technique (R undle et al., Proc Nat Acad Sci USA 99, 2514-2521, ; T iampo et al., Pure Appl Geophys 159, 2429-2467, ). The Southern Californian dataset was used to generate a series of perturbed catalogs by adding different levels of noise to epicenter locations. The PI technique was applied to these perturbed datasets to perform retrospective forecasts that were evaluated by means of skill scores, commonly used in atmospheric sciences. These results were then compared to the effectiveness obtained from the original dataset. Isolated instances of decline of the PI performance were observed due to the nature of the skill scores themselves, but no clear trend of degradation was identified. Dependence on the total number of events in a catalog also was studied, with no systematic degradation in the performance of the PI for catalogs with events in the cases studied. These results suggest that the stability of the PI method is due to the invariance of the clustering patterns identified by the TM metric (T hirumalai and M ountain, Phys Rev A 39, 3563-3573, 1989) when applied to seismicity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observed high-frequency (HF) radiation from earthquake faults exhibits specific properties that cannot be deduced or extrapolated from low-frequency fault behavior. In particular: (1) HF time functions look like random signals, with smooth mean spectrum and moderately heavy-tailed probability distribution function for amplitudes; (2) well-known directivity of low-frequency radiation related to rupture propagation is strongly reduced at HF, suggesting incoherent (delta-correlated) behavior of the HF radiator, and contradicting the usual picture of a rupture front as a regular, non-fractal moving line; (3) in the spectral domain, HF radiation occupies a certain specific band seen as a plateau on acceleration source spectra $$ K(f) = f^{2} \dot{M}_{0} (f) $$. The lower cutoff frequency f of K(f) spectra is often located significantly higher than the common spectral corner frequency f, or f. In many cases, empirical f( M) trends are significantly slower as compared to the simple f ∝ M, testifying the lack of similarity in spectral shapes; (4) evidence is accumulating in support of the reality of the upper cutoff frequency of K(f): fault-controlled f, or f. However, its identification is often hampered by such problems as: (a) strong interference between f and site-controlled f; (b) possible location of f above the observable spectral range; and (c) substantial deviations of individual source spectra from the ideal spectral shape; (5) intrinsic structure of random-like HF radiation has been shown to bear significant self-similar (fractal) features. A HF signal can be represented as a product of a random HF 'carrier signal' with constant mean square amplitude, and a positive modulation function, again random, that represents a signal envelope. It is this modulation function that shows approximately fractal behavior. This kind of behavior was revealed over a broad range of time scales, from 1 to 300 s from teleseismic data and from 0.04 to 30 s from near-fault accelerogram data. To explain in a qualitative way many of these features, it is proposed that rupture propagation can be visualized as occurring, simultaneously, at two different space-time scales. At a macro-scale (i.e. at a low resolution view), one can safely believe in the reality of a singly connected rupture with a front as a smooth line, like a crack tip, that propagates in a locally unilateral way. At a micro-scale, the rupture front is tortuous and disjoint, and can be visualized as a multiply connected fractal 'line' or polyline. It propagates, locally, in random directions, and is governed by stochastic regularities, including fractal time structure. The two scales and styles are separated by a certain characteristic time, of the order of (0.07-0.15) × rupture duration. The domain of fractal behavior spans a certain HF frequency range; its boundaries, related to the lower and upper fractal limits, are believed to be manifested as f and f. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The numerical block-model of the lithosphere dynamics is used to simulate seismicity in Italy and its surroundings, based on the available structural and geodynamics information. The purpose of the study is to understand which are the tectonic processes that control the main features of the observed seismicity and the kinematics of the region. The influence of the rheology of the fault systems is studied as well. The model we use differs from other modeling approaches in that it simulates earthquakes and hence it possibly relates to seismicity and geodynamics. The model provides an effective capability to include the set of documented constraints supplied by widely available earthquake catalogs. This is done by means of the comparison of the GR relation, of the focal mechanisms and of the space distribution for observed and computed seismicity. The region is modeled as a system of perfectly rigid blocks, separated by infinitely thin fault planes, in viscoelastic interaction between themselves and with the underlying medium. The movement of the boundary blocks and of the underlying medium determines the motion of the blocks. The synthetic seismicity obtained with the defined block-model is similar to the observed one for the most seismically active areas. A linear frequency-magnitude (FM) relation (Gutenberg-Richter law) is obtained for synthetic earthquakes; the slope ( b-value) of the FM plot appears larger for the synthetic seismicity than for the observed one. Nevertheless, the b-value is essentially larger in northern and central Italy than that in southern Italy, both in the model and in the observations. The analysis of the source mechanisms of the synthetic earthquakes shows a good agreement with the observations. In the model normal faulting is typical for the Apennines, the eastern edge of Sicily and the Calabrian arc, while reverse faulting takes place at the northwestern boundary of the Adriatic Sea, in the southern Alps and along the eastern edge of the Adria, along the Dinarides. The model correctly reproduces the extension zone along the Apennines and the contraction zone along the northwestern boundary of the Adriatic Sea; the counter-clockwise rotation of the Adria is mimed. The resulting movements of the blocks are in overall agreement with GPS (Global Positioning System) observations. The results of the modeling experiments suggest that the main features of dynamics and seismicity in the central Mediterranean region cannot be satisfactorily explained as a consequence of Africa and Eurasia convergence only; the passive subduction in the Calabrian arc and the different rheology of faults are essential as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop one-dimensional (1-D) path-specific velocity models in western China using new Rayleigh and Love wave group and phase velocity dispersion measurements for 20 events in the region. The earthquakes were grouped into three geographic clusters from which we compute the average phase and group velocity dispersion. We invert the average dispersion curves simultaneously for 1-D shear-velocity models appropriate for the three central Asian paths, using three previous shear-velocity models as initial models. The models are validated by forward modeling waveforms of recent events. The crustal thickness beneath western China in the vicinity of the Lop Nor test site is 50–60 km and our velocity models are consistent with major geologic features (e.g., basins and mountain ranges) and previous structural models for this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gas variations of many mud volcanoes and hot springs distributed along the tectonic sutures in southwestern Taiwan are considered to be sensitive to the earthquake activity. Therefore, a multi-parameter automatic gas station was built on the bank of one of the largest mud-pools at an active fault zone of southwestern Taiwan, for continuous monitoring of CO2, CH4, N2 and H2O, the major constituents of its bubbling gases. During the year round monitoring from October 2001 to October 2002, the gas composition, especially, CH4 and CO2, of the mud pool showed significant variations. Taking the CO2/CH4 ratio as the main indicator, anomalous variations can be recognized from a few days to a few weeks before earthquakes and correlated well with those with a local magnitude >4.0 and local intensities >2. It is concluded that the gas composition in the area is sensitive to the local crustal stress/strain and is worthy to conduct real-time monitoring for the seismo-geochemical precursors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anomalous water level changes were observed at two wells associated with seismic swarm activity off Izu Peninsula on March, 1997. These are coseismic water level drops followed by gradual postseismic water level rise at the time of large earthquakes during the swarm activity. The post-seismic water level rises, which can be fitted by an exponential function with a time constant of about six hours, are explained in terms of the horizontal pressure diffusion due to the pressure gradient in the aquifer induced by the coseismic static strain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water was sampled from eight springs and a lake in volcanic Miyakejima Island of Japan after the 2000 eruption. Major chemical and isotopic compositions of the water were analyzed. Significant increases of sulfate ion are observed in several springs where the thickness of ejecta exceeds 32 mm. A good relationship of Cl/S mole ratios between spring water and leachate of the ejecta is observed. Sulfur isotopic compositions of the spring water become close to that of leachate of the ejecta as time elapses after the eruption. Consequently the sources of the added sulfate ion in the spring water after the eruption are interpreted to be anhydrite and adhered sulfur of the ejecta. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water samples from both hot and artesian springs in Kuantzeling in west-central Taiwan have been collected on a regular basis from July 15, 1999 to the end of August 2001 to measure cation and anion concentrations as a tool to detect major earthquake precursors. The data identify chloride and sulfate ion anomalies few days prior to major quakes and lasting a few days afterward. These anomalies are characterized by increases in Cl- concentrations from 34.9% to 41.2% and 71.5% to 138.1% as well as increases in SO4 2- concentrations from 232.7% to 276.8% and 100.0% to 155.1% above the means in both hot and artesian springs. The occurrence of these anomalies is probably explained first as stress/strain-induced pressure changes in the subsurface water systems which then generate precursory limited geochemical discharges at the levels of subsurface reservoirs. Therefore, finally leading to the mixing of previously separated subsurface water bodies occurs. This suggests that the hot and artesian springs in the Kuantzeling area are possible ideal sites for recording strain changes serving well as earthquake precursors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Active faults are commonly associated with spatially anomalously high concentrations of soil gases such as carbon dioxide and Rn, suggesting that they are crustal discontinuities with a relatively high vertical permeability through which crustal and subcrustal gases may preferably escape towards the earth's surface. Many earthquake-related hydrologic and geochemical temporal changes have been recorded, mostly along active faults especially at fault intersections, since the 1960s. The reality of such changes is gradually ascertained and their features well delineated and fairly understood. Some coseismic changes recorded in ``near field'' are rather consistent with poroelastic dislocation models of earthquake sources, whereas others are attributable to near-surface permeability enhancement. In addition, coseismic (and postseismic) changes were recorded for many moderate to large earthquakes at certain relatively few ``sensitive sites'' at epicentral distances too large (larger for larger earthquakes, up to 1000 km or more for magnitude 8) to be explained by the poroelastic models. They are probably triggered by seismic shaking. The sensitivity of different sites can be greatly different, even when separated only by meters. The sensitive sites are usually located on or near active faults, especially their intersections and bends, and characterized by some near-critical hydrologic or geochemical condition (e.g., permeability that can be greatly increased by a relatively small seismic shaking or stress increase). Coseismic changes recorded for different earthquakes at a sensitive site are usually similar, regardless of the earthquakes' location and focal mechanism. The sensitivity of a sensitive site may change with time. Also pre-earthquake changes were observed hours to years before some destructive earthquakes at certain sensitive sites, some at large epicentral distances, although these changes are relatively few and less certain. Both long-distance coseismic and preseismic changes call for more realistic models than simple elastic dislocation for explanation. Such models should take into consideration the heterogeneity of the crust where stress is concentrated at certain weak points (sensitive sites) along active faults such that the stress condition is near a critical level prior to the occurrence of the corresponding earthquakes. To explain the preseismic changes, the models should also assume a broad-scaled episodically increasing strain field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

- The geothermal structure beneath a seismoactive region of central India has been determined by using two independent geophysical parameters, i.e.,P n velocity and Curie point depth, which are temperature dependent.P n velocity has been determined by reanalyzing deep seismic sounding (DSS) records obtained for this region. Surface heat flow has been computed using theP n velocity data from this region and found to be 55 ± 5 mW m-2. Curie point depths have been derived from the magnetic satellite data in this region, and reveal an identical value of heat flow of around 56 ± 4 mW m-2. We estimated temperatures of 600-700°C at a Moho depth of 39 km by using surface heat flow ranging from 50 to 60 mW m-2 and a simple 1-D geothermal model. The present study suggests the presence of a brittle-ductile transition (high strength) zone ranging in depth from 20 to 35 km, where the temperatures range from 350 to 550°C. We also suggest that the nucleation of earthquakes in this region took place in a relatively high strength zone. This is supported by the fact that the focal depths of all the recent earthquakes (from 1978 to 2000 of magnitude = 3.5) lie in this zone of high strength. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present results from a comparative analysis of empirical and synthetic shapes for isoseismals of low intensity (I = IV–VI on the MCS scale) for six Italian earthquakes of ML = 4.5–6. Our modeling of isoseismals is based on a plane-stratified earth model and on the double–couple point source approximation to calculate seismograms in the frequency range f ≤ 1 Hz. With a minimum of parameter variation we demonstrate that the low intensity isoseismals provide information on source geometry. We strive to avoid subjectivity in isoseismal constructions by using the new Diffuse Boundary method, which visualizes isoseismals with their uncertainty. Similar results in this direction are known for large earthquakes (ML ≈ 6 or greater) with extended sources and for the higher isoseismals (I ≥ VI on the MM scale). The latter studies disregard the earth structure, use a greater number of parameters, and therefore have greater possibilities for fitting the data than our approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— We present a quantitative statistical test for the presence of a crossover c0 in the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake seismic moments, separating the usual power-law regime for seismic moments less than c0 from another faster decaying regime beyond c0. Our method is based on the transformation of the ordered sample of seismic moments into a series with uniform distribution under condition of no crossover. A simulation method allows us to estimate the statistical significance of the null hypothesis H0 of an absence of crossover (c0=infinity). When H0 is rejected, we estimate the crossover c0 using two different competing models for the second regime beyond c0 and the simulation method. For the catalog obtained by aggregating 14 subduction zones of the Circum-Pacific Seismic Belt, our estimate of the crossover point is log(c0)=28.14 ± 0.40 (c0 in dyne-cm), corresponding to a crossover magnitude mW=8.1 ± 0.3. For separate subduction zones, the corresponding estimates are substantially more uncertain, so that the null hypothesis of an identical crossover for all subduction zones cannot be rejected. Such a large value of the crossover magnitude makes it difficult to associate it directly with a seismogenic thickness as proposed by many different authors. Our measure of c0 may substantiate the concept that the localization of strong shear deformation could propagate significantly in the lower crust and upper mantle, thus increasing the effective size beyond which one should expect a change of regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic tomography is a viable tool in building depth-velocity models in the presence of strong lateral velocity variations. In this study 3-D P- and S-velocity models for the crust of southern California are constrained using more than 1,000,000 P-wave first arrivals and 130,000 S-wave arrivals from local earthquakes. To cope with the uneven distribution of raypaths, a multi-scale tomography is applied with overlapping model cells of different sizes. Within the 300 × 480 × 39 km3 model volume, the smallest cell size is 10 × 10 × 3 km3. During the iterations of velocity updating, earthquake hypocenters are determined using both P and S arrivals, and full 3-D ray tracing is implemented. Except near the edges and in the lower crust, the resultant models are robust according to various tests on the effects of reference models, resolution and signal-to-noise ratio. The tomographic velocities at shallow depths correlate very well with the regional geology of southern California. In the upper crust the P-wave and S-wave models exhibit slow velocities in major sedimentary basins and fast velocities in areas of crystalline rocks. Mid-crustal low velocity zones are present under the Coso Range, San Gabriel Mountains, and a large portion of the Mojave Desert. P- and S-velocity patterns maintain their similarity in the lower crust though the models are less reliable there. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scaling relations previously derived from examples of the precursory scale increase before major earthquakes show that the precursor is a long-term predictor of the time, magnitude, and location of the major earthquake. These relations are here taken as the basis of a stochastic forecasting model in which every earthquake is regarded as a precursor. The problem of identifying those earthquakes that are actually precursory is thus set aside, at the cost of limiting the strength of the resulting forecast. The contribution of an individual earthquake to the future distribution of hazard in time, magnitude and location is on a scale determined, through the scaling relations, by its magnitude. Provision is made for a contribution to be affected by other earthquakes close in time and location, e.g., an aftershock may be given low weight. Using the New Zealand catalogue, the model has been fitted to the forecasting of shallow earthquakes exceeding magnitude 5.75 over the period 1965–2000. It fits the data much better than a baseline Poisson model with a location distribution based on proximity to the epicenters of past earthquakes. Further, the model has been applied, with unchanged parameters, to the California region over the period 1975–2001. There also, it performs much better than the baseline model fitted to the same region over the period 1951–1974; the likelihood ratio is 1015 in favor of the present model. These results lend credence to the precursory scale increase phenomenon, and show that the scaling relations are pervasive in earthquake catalogues. The forecasting model provides a new baseline model against which future refinements, and other proposed models, can be tested. It may also prove to be useful in practice. Its applicability to other regions has still to be established. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A space-time envelope of minor seismicity related to major shallow earthquakes is identified from observations of the long-term Precursory Scale Increase (Ψ) phenomenon, which quantifies the three-stage faulting model of seismogenesis. The envelope, which includes the source area of the major earthquake, is here demarcated for 47 earthquakes from four regions, with tectonic regimes ranging from subduction to continental collision and continental transform. The earthquakes range in magnitude from 5.8 to 8.2, and include the 24 most recent mainshocks of magnitude 6.4 and larger in the San Andreas system of California, the Hellenic Arc region of Greece, and the New Zealand region, together with the six most recent mainshocks of magnitude 7.4 and larger in the Pacific Arc region of Japan. Also included are the destructive earthquakes that occurred at Kobe, Japan (1995, magnitude 7.2), Izmit, Turkey (1999, magnitude 7.4), and W.Tottori, Japan (2000, magnitude 7.3). The space (AP) in the space-time envelope is optimised with respect to the scale increase, while the time (TP) is the interval between the onset of the scale increase and the occurrence of the earthquake. A strong correlation is found between the envelope APTP and the magnitude of the earthquake; hence the conclusion that the set of precursory earthquakes contained in the envelope is intrinsic to the seismogenic process. Yet AP and TP are correlated only weakly with each other, suggesting that AP is affected by differences in statical conditions, such as geological structure and lithology, and TP by differences in dynamical conditions, such as plate velocity. Among other scaling relations, predictive regressions are found between, on the one hand, the magnitude level of the precursory seismicity, and on the other hand, both TP and the major earthquake magnitude. Hence the method, as here applied to retrospective analysis, is potentially adaptable to long-range forecasting of the place, time and magnitude of major earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— Average envelope shapes (mean square amplitude time histories) of small earthquakes represent a convenient basis for the construction of semi-empirical stochastic “Green's functions,” needed for prediction of future strong ground motion. At the same time, they provide crucial evidence for verification of the theories of scattering of high-frequency seismic waves in the lithosphere. To determine such shapes in the Kamchatka region we use the records of near (R = 50–200 km) shallow earthquakes located around the broadband station PET. On these records, we select the S-wave group and determine its root-mean-square duration Trms, separately for each of the five octave frequency bands. We determine the empirical Trms vs. distance dependence and find it to be very close to a linear one. At the reference distance R = 100 km, average Trms decreases from 5.4 se c for the 0.75 Hz band to 3.9 sec for the 12 Hz band. To analyze average envelopes, we assume that the functional form of the envelope shape function is independent of distance, and stretch each of the observed envelopes along the time axis so as to reduce it to a fixed distance. Through averaging of these envelopes we obtain characteristic envelope shape functions. We qualitatively analyze these shapes and find that around the peak they are close to the shapes expected for a medium with power-law inhomogeneity spectrum, with the spectral exponent 3.5–4. From onset-to-peak delay times we derive the values of transport mean free path and of scattering Q for a set of distances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— The time variation of two parameters related to accelerating seismic deformation before strong earthquakes in the Aegean area is examined. The first is the b parameter of the Gutenberg-Richter relation and the second is the curvature parameter C, which is a measure of deviation of the accelerating preshock deformation from a linear time variation of this deformation. Following two different procedures, it was found that the b value exhibits a decreasing trend prior to the oncoming earthquake, in agreement with the results of laboratory experiments and other independent observations. C values also show a decreasing trend before main shocks. These results indicate that such time variations of these parameters can be considered as precursory phenomena of ensuing strong earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— Daily averaged tilt component data from four sites of the Central Apennines (Italy) revealed intermediate-term tilts of a few months as possible precursors of the seismic sequence occurred in the Umbria-Marche region during 1997. A change was also observed in the secular tectonic trend recorded at one site and referred to the same seismic sequence. The observed intermediate-term preseismic tilts are considered as the manifestation of aseismic creep episodes in the fault materials close to the tilt sites. The mechanism refers to a strain field slowly propagating from the dilatancy (focal) area to the tiltmeters, through rigid crustal blocks separated by weak transition zones with viscoelastic rheology. This propagation is thought to be the cause of the local aseismic fault slip recorded by tiltmeters. In one case such creep strains revealed to have larger amplitude and higher frequency content than those accepted for fault materials, and this was attributed to an amplified response of the heterogeneous ground surface at the site. The existence of a propagating strain field is confirmed by the different onset time delays in the preseismic tilt signals recorded at different distances from the same earthquake. In particular, the onset time delays observed at each tilt site appear to increase with increasing distance of such site from the epicentral area. At greatest distances, where the preseismic strain becomes negligible, the characteristic intermediate-term ground tilts vanish completely. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]