1. Retrospective Study on the Predictability of Pattern Informatics to the Wenchuan M8.0 and Yutian M7.3 Earthquakes.
- Author
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Zhang, Yongxian, Zhang, Xiaotao, Wu, Yongjia, and Yin, Xiangchu
- Subjects
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EARTHQUAKES , *EARTH movements , *SEISMOLOGY , *GEOPHYSICS - Abstract
Two large earthquakes occurred in the western part of China in 2008, one of them being the Yutian (35.6°N, 81.6°E) M7.3 earthquake that occurred on March 21 (BJT) and the other the Wenchuan (31.0°N, 103.4°E) M8.0 earthquake that occurred on May 12 (BJT). In this paper, the West Continental China (included in 20.0°-50.0°N, 70.0°-110.0°E region) was the study region for verifyong the predictability of the pattern informatics (PI) method using the receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) test and R score test. Different forecasting maps with different calculating parameters were obtained. The calculating parameters were the grid size Δ x, base time t, reference interval t to t, change interval t to t, and forecasting interval t to t. In this paper, the base time t fixed to June 1, 1971, the ending forecast time t fixed to June 1, 2008, and the forecasting interval t to t changed from 1 to 10 years, and the grid sizes were chosen as 1° × 1° and 2° × 2°, respectively. The results show that the PI method could forecast the Yutian M7.3 and Wenchuan M8.0 earthquakes only using suitable parameters. Comparing the forecast results of grid sizes 1° × 1° and 2° × 2°, the models with 2° × 2° grids were better. Comparing the forecast results with different forecasting windows from 1 to 10 years, the models with forecasting windows of 4-8 years were better using the ROC test, and the models with forecasting windows of 7-10 years were better using the R score test. The forecast efficiency of the model with a grid size of 2° × 2° and forecast window of 8 years was the best one using either the ROC test or the R score test. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2013
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