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This paper begins with a critical assessment of the concept of macroseismic intensity, on which traditional scales, such as MSK and EMS, are based. The main shortcoming identified is the model's failure to consider the spectral features of ground motion. This omission may lead to erroneous seismic zonation, as shown in the paper. As a result, the model is of little interest to engineers who must design and build safe structures while adopting economical solutions. The paper presents a way to radically improve this situation. The starting point for this approach was the experience of the destructive Vrancea earthquake of 1977.03.04, which made it clear that intensity appears to be different for structures having natural periods pertaining to different spectral domains. The solution proposed to the shortcomings of the traditional intensity concept is postulated on a system of analytical expressions, covering definitions of global intensities, of intensities related to oscillation frequency and of intensities related to a definite spectral band. The latter definition lies at the basis of a definition of discrete intensity spectra. Illustrative applications are presented, in relation to global intensities and to discrete intensity spectra. We then analyze an illustrative case in which the use of traditional macroseismic survey techniques led to erroneous seismic zonation. Finally, some conclusions and recommendations are presented. Based on the authors' long-term experience, we strongly recommend close interaction between seismologists and engineers in working groups and joint projects targeted on radical improvement of the basic concepts of seismic intensity and of specific analysis procedures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The first part of the paper defines the terms and classifications common in earthquake prediction research and applications. This is followed by short reviews of major earthquake prediction programs initiated since World War II in several countries, for example the former USSR, China, Japan, the United States, and several European countries. It outlines the underlying expectations, concepts, and hypotheses, introduces the technologies and methodologies applied and some of the results obtained, which include both partial successes and failures. Emphasis is laid on discussing the scientific reasons why earthquake prediction research is so difficult and demanding and why the prospects are still so vague, at least as far as short-term and imminent predictions are concerned. However, classical probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, widely applied during the last few decades, have also clearly revealed their limitations. In their simple form, they are time-independent earthquake rupture forecasts based on the assumption of stable long-term recurrence of earthquakes in the seismotectonic areas under consideration. Therefore, during the last decade, earthquake prediction research and pilot applications have focused mainly on the development and rigorous testing of long and medium-term rupture forecast models in which event probabilities are conditioned by the occurrence of previous earthquakes, and on their integration into neo-deterministic approaches for improved time-variable seismic hazard assessment. The latter uses stress-renewal models that are calibrated for variations in the earthquake cycle as assessed on the basis of historical, paleoseismic, and other data, often complemented by multi-scale seismicity models, the use of pattern-recognition algorithms, and site-dependent strong-motion scenario modeling. International partnerships and a global infrastructure for comparative testing have recently been developed, for example the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) with test regions in California, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, and the Western Pacific. Algorithms and data bases are operated in a permanently learning and upgrading mode. Future perspectives and research requirements and the feasibility and possible problems encountered with the implementation of earthquake predictions in practice are briefly summarized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is an acquired result that, in order to enable realistic earthquake hazard assessment and reliable estimation of the ground motion response to an earthquake, three-dimensional velocity models have to be considered. In this paper we present a new analytical procedure for determining the seismic wavefield in a 3D anelastic model based on the combination of the ray theory with the modal summation method. The proposed procedure has been validated by considering the three-dimensional model of the Kanto basin (Japan) available in the literature. Three-dimensional simulations were performed for the 1990 Odawara earthquake. The results obtained were compared both with recorded signals and with simulations available in the literature for several stations located within the Kanto basin. Besides the advantage of being a useful tool for assessment of seismic hazard and seismic risk reduction, it is characterized by high efficiency, in fact, once the study region is identified and the 3D model is constructed, the computation, at each station, of the three components of the synthetic signal (displacement, velocity, and acceleration) takes less than 3 h on a 2 GHz CPU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the basis for a method for estimating the return period of large and medium earthquakes that is independent of current deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The two standard techniques of seismic hazard assessment-probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and deterministic seismic hazard assessment (DSHA)-suffer from limited knowledge of seismic prehistory. A further weakness of PSHA is its requirement of homogeneous seismic activity within a seismic zone. Moreover, PSHA and DSHA were developed for seismically active areas and, thus, cannot reliably be used in areas of medium and low activity. In this paper we propose the combined use of geodetic strain rate data and the seismic moment data set determined for past seismic events. This combination represents a new and independent approach to estimation of future seismic activity. Using a modified version of Kostrov's (Phys Solid Earth 1:23-40, ) equation and the catalogue of seismic moments, the minimum return period of the strongest earthquakes of a source area is estimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic hazard in terms of spectral acceleration ( SA) has been estimated for the first time in northern Algeria. For this purpose, we have used the spatially-smoothed seismicity approach. The present paper is intended to be a continuation of previous work in which we have evaluated the seismic hazard in terms of peak ground acceleration ( PGA) using the same methodology. To perform these evaluations, four complete and Poissonian seismic models have been used. One of them considers earthquakes with magnitudes above M S 6.5 in the last 300 years, that is, the most energetic seismicity in the region. Firstly, seismic hazard maps in terms of SA, at periods of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 sec, with 39.3% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, have been obtained. Therefore, uniform hazard spectra ( UHS) are computed and examined in detail for twelve of the most industrial and populated cities in northern Algeria. All the reported results in this study are for rock soil and 5% of damping. It is noteworthy that, in the seismic hazard maps as well as in the UHS plots, we observe maximum SA values in the central area of the Tell. The higher values are reached in the Chleff region (previously El Asnam), specifically around the location of the destructive earthquakes of September 9, 1954 ( M S 6.8), and October 10, 1980 ( M S 7.3). These maximum values, 0.4 g and 1.0 g, are associated with periods of about 0.2 and 0.3 sec for return periods of 100 and 475 years, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Bayesian method is used to evaluate earthquake hazard parameters of maximum regional magnitude ( M), β value, and seismic activity rate or intensity ( λ) and their uncertainties for the 15 different source regions in Western Anatolia. A compiled earthquake catalog that is homogenous for M ≥ 4 was completed during the period from 1900 to 2013. The computed M values are between 6.00 and 8.06. Low values are found in the northern part of Western Anatolia, whereas high values are observed in the southern part of Western Anatolia, related to the Aegean subduction zone. The largest value is computed in region 10, comprising the Aegean Islands. The quantiles of functions of distributions of true and apparent magnitude on a given time interval [0 ,T] are evaluated. The quantiles of functions of distributions of apparent and true magnitudes for future time intervals of 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 years are calculated in all seismogenic source regions for confidence limits of probability levels of 50, 70, and 90 %. According to the computed earthquake hazard parameters, the requirement leads to the earthquake estimation of the parameters referred to as the most seismically active regions of Western Anatolia. The Aegean Islands, which have the highest earthquake magnitude (7.65) in the next 100 years with a 90 % probability level, is the most dangerous region compared to other regions. The results found in this study can be used in probabilistic seismic hazard studies of Western Anatolia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We characterize the heterogeneous source slip model of intraslab earthquakes to compare source scaling properties with those of inland crustal and subduction-zone plate-boundary earthquakes. We extracted rupture area ( S), total area of asperity ( S), average slip ( D) and average slip on asperity ( D) of eleven intraslab earthquakes following the procedure proposed by S omerville et al. (Seism Res Lett 70:59-80, ) and proposed the empirical scaling relationship formula of S, S, and D for intraslab earthquakes. Under the same seismic moment, an intraslab earthquake has a smaller rupture area and total area of asperity, and smaller average slip than an inland crustal earthquake. The area ratio of asperity area and total rupture area of intraslab earthquakes are similar to those of inland crustal earthquakes. The strong motion generation area (SMGA) scaling of intraslab earthquakes appears self-similar, and those results support the idea the characterized source model of intraslab earthquakes can be modeled in a manner similar to that of inland crustal earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To carry out a realistic simulation of earthquake strong ground motion for applied studies, one needs an earthquake fault/source simulator that can integrate most relevant features of observed earthquake ruptures. A procedure of this kind is proposed that creates a broadband kinematic source model. At lower frequencies, the source is described as propagating slip pulse with locally variable velocity. The final slip is assumed to be a two-dimensional (2D) random function. At higher frequencies, radiation from the same running strip is assumed to be random and incoherent in space. The model is discretized in space as a grid of point subsources with certain time histories. At lower frequencies, a realistic shape of source spectrum is generated implicitly by simulated kinematics of slip pulse propagation. At higher frequencies, the original approach is used to generate signals with spectra that plausibly approximate the prescribed smooth far-field source spectrum. This spectrum is set on the basis of the assumedly known regional empirical spectral scaling law, and subsource moment rate time histories are conditioned so as to fit this expected spectrum. For the random function that describes final slip over the fault area, lognormal probability distribution of amplitudes is assumed, on the basis of exploratory analysis of inverted slip distributions. Similarly, random functions that describe local slip rate time histories are assumed to have lognormal distribution of envelope amplitudes. In this way one can effectively emulate expressed 'asperities' of final slip and occasional occurrence of large spikes on near-source accelerograms. A special procedure is proposed to simulate the spatial coherence of high-frequency fault motion. This approach permits the simulation of fault motion plausibly at high spatial resolution, fulfilling the prerequisite for simulation of strong motion in the vicinity of a fault. A particular realization (sample) of a source created in a simulation run depends on several random seeds, and also on a considerable number of parameters. Their values can be selected so as to take into account expected source features; they can also be perturbed to examine the source-related component of uncertainty of strong motion. The proposed approach to earthquake source specification is well adapted to the study of deterministic seismic hazard: it may be used for simulation of individual scenario events, or suites of such events, as well as for analysis of uncertainty for expected ground motion parameters from a particular class of events. Examples are given of application of the proposed approach to strong motion simulations and related uncertainty estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment was performed for the Japanese islands and surrounding areas. Seismic hazard parameters characteristic of the seismic history of the regions were obtained. The probability of occurrence of a large M ≥ 7 earthquake within a 10- and 50-year period was also calculated. Regions of very high levels of hazard occur where the Pacific, Phillipine and Eurasian Plates meet. High probabilities of occurrence of a large M ≥ 7 earthquake within a 10- and 50-year period occur within the region where the Pacific Plate subducts with the Eurasian Plate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The site response at 15 stations in the Adana-Ceyhan region (Southern Turkey) is calculated from the recordings of aftershocks of June 27, 1998 Adana-Ceyhan earthquake (M S=6.2) by using the Standard Spectral Ratio (SSR) and the Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) methods. While the two methods are in good harmony at a few stations in determining the site effects, they show differences on the estimated amplifications or on the site resonance frequencies at most stations. It was not clear which one of the two methods underestimates or overestimates the amplification values. We observe that at some stations, where the local site conditions are rather complex, the vertical component records are strongly influenced from the local soil conditions. Thus, the HVSR method fails at these stations. The SSR method underestimates the amplifications at some stations since the rock site, selected as reference site, has its own site response and/or the path correction we applied, considering the geometrical spreading factor only, is insufficient. At the sites where high intensity values were observed, we found high amplifications. The fundamental soil frequencies characterize the damage properties observed in the Adana-Ceyhan earthquake. The fundamental soil frequency is nearly at 1.1 Hz at the Ceyhan site, where severe damage was observed in the 5-6 story buildings, while the fundamental soil frequency is between 3-6 Hz at the Adana site, where damage was in the low-story buildings. Therefore, in addition to inefficient construction practices, it is clear that the resonance effects have also contributed to the observed damage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]