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The establishment of a unified earthquake catalog is a basic requirement for attaining a detailed seismological analysis and an improved seismic hazard assessment. Accordingly, the current research paper aims to present a reliable instrumental unified earthquake catalog for the northern part of Algeria. This unified catalog is compiled using regional empirical relationships derived from converting different magnitude scales to an advanced physical-based moment magnitude scale suggested in the recent literature and denoted by Mwg. The regression methodology used in this study is called the New General Orthogonal Regression approach (N.GOR), which was selected since it is the most trustworthy procedure for scaling the magnitudes to Mwg. To highlight the significance of using the N.GOR, the obtained outcomes of the scaling relations were compared with those issued from the conventional general orthogonal regression (GOR) method, which is deemed to be the most dependable methodology used worldwide for magnitude conversion problems. The unified earthquake catalog was assembled from 1954 to 2022. Reliably converting the original magnitudes into homogenized moment magnitude leads to a complete and consistent unified earthquake catalog. Indeed, the unified moment magnitude catalog presented in this paper could provide reliable data for studying earthquakes distribution and the assessment of seismic hazards in the north of Algeria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because of the scarcity of recorded seismic ground motions from Vrancea intermediate-depth source that can be used in designing a structure, engineers are bound to use scaled, artificial, or simulated accelerograms. Out of these options, the first two might incompletely account for the phenomena that may appear. Although complicated, simulated accelerograms provide one of the best options for defining the seismic demand in engineering design, but further research is needed to adapt the simulation methods to the source, path, and site-specific characteristics. As some parameters used in simulations were not addressed yet specifically for the Vrancea-intermediate seismic source, the specific path duration is investigated in this paper. Using a database with the recorded ground motions from March 4, 1977, August 30, 1986, May 30 and May 31, 1990, October 27, 2004 Vrancea earthquakes (the only five recorded earthquakes with moment magnitudes at least equal to 6), the path and magnitude dependent duration specific to Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source to be used in the stochastic simulation is developed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to theory, earthquakes may produce disturbances in surrounding areas and affect the major earthquake occurrence rate of surrounding faults. The MS 6.6 Jinghe Earthquake on 9th August, 2017 occurred in the Tienshan Seismic Belt where there is much tectonic activity and many strong earthquakes occur. The impact of this earthquake on major earthquake activity of surrounding areas is worth studying. This paper attempts to combine two models: the Brownian passage-time (BPT) model, which describes the quasi-periodic recurrence of major earthquakes, and the Coulomb Failure Stress model, which describes rock failure on faults. The amount of change in the rate of major earthquake occurrence caused by a nearby earthquake was calculated, and changes in major earthquake activity in the surrounding areas after the Jinghe Earthquake were re-estimated. There are few differences in major earthquake occurrence rate change by stress disturbances calculated with the BPT model or the Coulomb Failure Stress model. Calculation results are consistent with actual earthquake cases. The 2017 Jinghe Earthquake increased major earthquake activity on the Boluokenu Fault and Yili Basin North Fault, and the expected major earthquake recurrence times of the two faults were advanced by 11 years and 59 years, respectively. Conclusions of this paper provide a reference for time-dependent seismic hazard assessments in related areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Statistical quantification of observed seismicity is important for understanding earthquake dynamics and future risk in any seismic-prone region. In this paper, we implement the idea of nowcasting (Rundle et al. in Earth and Space Science 3:480–486, 2016) to examine the current uncertain state of earthquake hazard assessment in the seismically active Bay of Bengal (BoB) and adjacent regions. First, we utilize the concept of "natural time" (Varostos et al. in Physical Review E 71:032102, 2005), rather than clock time, to develop a statistical distribution of inter-event counts of "small" earthquakes occurring between "large" earthquakes. Using relevant statistics of natural time, we then calculate the earthquake potential score (EPS) as the cumulative number of small earthquakes since the last large event in the selected region. The EPS, which provides the nowcast value for a region, reveals the current state of earthquake hazard in that region. Therefore, by indirect means, the EPS provides us with a simple yet transparent estimation of the current level of seismic progress through the regional earthquake cycle of recurring events in a geographical area. To illustrate the nowcasting approach in the study region, we computed EPS values for the two most seismically exposed megacities, Dhaka and Kolkata, considering events of M ≥ 4 within a radius of 250 km around their respective city centers. We found that the current EPS values corresponding to M ≥ 6 events in Dhaka and Kolkata were approximately 0.72 and 0.40, respectively. The practical applicability of these values is discussed in conjunction with sensitivity analysis of the threshold magnitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper considers Poisson temporal occurrence of earthquakes and presents a way to integrate uncertainties of the estimates of mean activity rate and magnitude cumulative distribution function in the interval estimation of the most widely used seismic hazard functions, such as the exceedance probability and the mean return period. The proposed algorithm can be used either when the Gutenberg-Richter model of magnitude distribution is accepted or when the nonparametric estimation is in use. When the Gutenberg-Richter model of magnitude distribution is used the interval estimation of its parameters is based on the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator. When the nonparametric kernel estimation of magnitude distribution is used, we propose the iterated bias corrected and accelerated method for interval estimation based on the smoothed bootstrap and second-order bootstrap samples. The changes resulted from the integrated approach in the interval estimation of the seismic hazard functions with respect to the approach, which neglects the uncertainty of the mean activity rate estimates have been studied using Monte Carlo simulations and two real dataset examples. The results indicate that the uncertainty of mean activity rate affects significantly the interval estimates of hazard functions only when the product of activity rate and the time period, for which the hazard is estimated, is no more than 5.0. When this product becomes greater than 5.0, the impact of the uncertainty of cumulative distribution function of magnitude dominates the impact of the uncertainty of mean activity rate in the aggregated uncertainty of the hazard functions. Following, the interval estimates with and without inclusion of the uncertainty of mean activity rate converge. The presented algorithm is generic and can be applied also to capture the propagation of uncertainty of estimates, which are parameters of a multiparameter function, onto this function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper begins with a critical assessment of the concept of macroseismic intensity, on which traditional scales, such as MSK and EMS, are based. The main shortcoming identified is the model's failure to consider the spectral features of ground motion. This omission may lead to erroneous seismic zonation, as shown in the paper. As a result, the model is of little interest to engineers who must design and build safe structures while adopting economical solutions. The paper presents a way to radically improve this situation. The starting point for this approach was the experience of the destructive Vrancea earthquake of 1977.03.04, which made it clear that intensity appears to be different for structures having natural periods pertaining to different spectral domains. The solution proposed to the shortcomings of the traditional intensity concept is postulated on a system of analytical expressions, covering definitions of global intensities, of intensities related to oscillation frequency and of intensities related to a definite spectral band. The latter definition lies at the basis of a definition of discrete intensity spectra. Illustrative applications are presented, in relation to global intensities and to discrete intensity spectra. We then analyze an illustrative case in which the use of traditional macroseismic survey techniques led to erroneous seismic zonation. Finally, some conclusions and recommendations are presented. Based on the authors' long-term experience, we strongly recommend close interaction between seismologists and engineers in working groups and joint projects targeted on radical improvement of the basic concepts of seismic intensity and of specific analysis procedures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chilean subduction zone is one of the most active of the world with M = 8 or larger interplate thrust earthquakes occurring every 10 years or so on the average. The identification and characterization of pulses propagated from dominant asperities that control the rupture of these earthquakes is an important problem for seismology and especially for seismic hazard assessment since it can reduce the earthquake destructiveness potential. A number of studies of large Chilean earthquakes have revealed that the source time functions of these events are composed of a number of distinct energy arrivals. In this paper, we identify and characterize the high frequency pulses of dominant asperities using near source strong motion records. Two very well recorded interplate earthquakes, the 1985 Central Chile (Ms = 7.8) and the 2007 Tocopilla (Mw = 7.7), are considered. In particular, the 2007 Tocopilla earthquake was recorded by a network with absolute time and continuos recording. From the study of these strong motion data it is possible to identify the arrival of large pulses coming from different dominant asperities. The recognition of the key role of dominant asperities in seismic hazard assessment can reduce overestimations due to scattering of attenuation formulas that consider epicentral distance or shortest distance to the fault rather than the asperity distance. The location and number of dominant asperities, their shape, the amplitude and arrival time of pulses can be one of the principal factors influencing Chilean seismic hazard assessment and seismic design. The high frequency pulses identified in this paper have permitted us to extend the range of frequency in which the 1985 Central Chile and 2007 Tocopilla earthquakes were studied. This should allow in the future the introduction of this seismological result in the seismic design of earthquake engineering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Real-time integration of multi-parametric observations is expected to accelerate the process toward improved, and operationally more effective, systems for time-Dependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard (t-DASH) and earthquake short-term (from days to weeks) forecast. However, a very preliminary step in this direction is the identification of those parameters (chemical, physical, biological, etc.) whose anomalous variations can be, to some extent, associated with the complex process of preparation for major earthquakes. In this paper one of these parameters (the Earth's emitted radiation in the Thermal InfraRed spectral region) is considered for its possible correlation with M ≥ 4 earthquakes occurred in Greece in between 2004 and 2013. The Robust Satellite Technique (RST) data analysis approach and Robust Estimator of TIR Anomalies (RETIRA) index were used to preliminarily define, and then to identify, significant sequences of TIR anomalies (SSTAs) in 10 years (2004-2013) of daily TIR images acquired by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager on board the Meteosat Second Generation satellite. Taking into account the physical models proposed for justifying the existence of a correlation among TIR anomalies and earthquake occurrences, specific validation rules (in line with the ones used by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability-CSEP-Project) have been defined to drive a retrospective correlation analysis process. The analysis shows that more than 93 % of all identified SSTAs occur in the prefixed space-time window around ( M ≥ 4) earthquake's time and location of occurrence with a false positive rate smaller than 7 %. Molchan error diagram analysis shows that such a correlation is far to be achievable by chance notwithstanding the huge amount of missed events due to frequent space/time data gaps produced by the presence of clouds over the scene. Achieved results, and particularly the very low rate of false positives registered on a so long testing period, seems already sufficient (at least) to qualify TIR anomalies (identified by RST approach and RETIRA index) among the parameters to be considered in the framework of a multi-parametric approach to t-DASH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three-dimensional frequency dependent S-wave quality factor (Q β(f)) value for the central Honshu region of Japan has been determined in this paper using an algorithm based on inversion of strong motion data. The method of inversion for determination of three-dimensional attenuation coefficients is proposed by H ashida and S himazaki (J Phys Earth. 32, 299–316, 1984 ) and has been used and modified by J oshi (Curr Sci. 90, 581–585, 2006 ; Nat Hazards. 43, 129–146, 2007 ) and J oshiet al. (J. Seismol. 14, 247–272, 2010 ). Twenty-one earthquakes digitally recorded on strong motion stations of Kik-net network have been used in this work. The magnitude of these earthquake ranges from 3.1 to 4.2 and depth ranging from 5 to 20 km, respectively. The borehole data having high signal to noise ratio and minimum site effect is used in the present work. The attenuation structure is determined by dividing the entire area into twenty-five three-dimensional blocks of uniform thickness having different frequency-dependent shear wave quality factor. Shear wave quality factor values have been determined at frequencies of 2.5, 7.0 and 10 Hz from record in a rectangular grid defined by 35.4°N to 36.4°N and 137.2°E to 138.2°E. The obtained attenuation structure is compared with the available geological features in the region and comparison shows that the obtained structure is capable of resolving important tectonic features present in the area. The proposed attenuation structure is compared with the probabilistic seismic hazard map of the region and shows that it bears some remarkable similarity in the patterns seen in seismic hazard map. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a new hazard-consistent ground motion characterization of the Itoiz dam site, located in Northern Spain. Firstly, we propose a methodology with different approximation levels to the expected ground motion at the dam site. Secondly, we apply this methodology taking into account the particular characteristics of the site and of the dam. Hazard calculations were performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment method using a logic tree, which accounts for different seismic source zonings and different ground-motion attenuation relationships. The study was done in terms of peak ground acceleration and several spectral accelerations of periods coinciding with the fundamental vibration periods of the dam. In order to estimate these ground motions we consider two different dam conditions: when the dam is empty ( T = 0.1 s) and when it is filled with water to its maximum capacity ( T = 0.22 s). Additionally, seismic hazard analysis is done for two return periods: 975 years, related to the project earthquake, and 4,975 years, identified with an extreme event. Soil conditions were also taken into account at the site of the dam. Through the proposed methodology we deal with different forms of characterizing ground motion at the study site. In a first step, we obtain the uniform hazard response spectra for the two return periods. In a second step, a disaggregation analysis is done in order to obtain the controlling earthquakes that can affect the dam. Subsequently, we characterize the ground motion at the dam site in terms of specific response spectra for target motions defined by the expected values SA ( T) of T = 0.1 and 0.22 s for the return periods of 975 and 4,975 years, respectively. Finally, synthetic acceleration time histories for earthquake events matching the controlling parameters are generated using the discrete wave-number method and subsequently analyzed. Because of the short relative distances between the controlling earthquakes and the dam site we considered finite sources in these computations. We conclude that directivity effects should be taken into account as an important variable in this kind of studies for ground motion characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The first part of the paper defines the terms and classifications common in earthquake prediction research and applications. This is followed by short reviews of major earthquake prediction programs initiated since World War II in several countries, for example the former USSR, China, Japan, the United States, and several European countries. It outlines the underlying expectations, concepts, and hypotheses, introduces the technologies and methodologies applied and some of the results obtained, which include both partial successes and failures. Emphasis is laid on discussing the scientific reasons why earthquake prediction research is so difficult and demanding and why the prospects are still so vague, at least as far as short-term and imminent predictions are concerned. However, classical probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, widely applied during the last few decades, have also clearly revealed their limitations. In their simple form, they are time-independent earthquake rupture forecasts based on the assumption of stable long-term recurrence of earthquakes in the seismotectonic areas under consideration. Therefore, during the last decade, earthquake prediction research and pilot applications have focused mainly on the development and rigorous testing of long and medium-term rupture forecast models in which event probabilities are conditioned by the occurrence of previous earthquakes, and on their integration into neo-deterministic approaches for improved time-variable seismic hazard assessment. The latter uses stress-renewal models that are calibrated for variations in the earthquake cycle as assessed on the basis of historical, paleoseismic, and other data, often complemented by multi-scale seismicity models, the use of pattern-recognition algorithms, and site-dependent strong-motion scenario modeling. International partnerships and a global infrastructure for comparative testing have recently been developed, for example the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) with test regions in California, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, and the Western Pacific. Algorithms and data bases are operated in a permanently learning and upgrading mode. Future perspectives and research requirements and the feasibility and possible problems encountered with the implementation of earthquake predictions in practice are briefly summarized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is an acquired result that, in order to enable realistic earthquake hazard assessment and reliable estimation of the ground motion response to an earthquake, three-dimensional velocity models have to be considered. In this paper we present a new analytical procedure for determining the seismic wavefield in a 3D anelastic model based on the combination of the ray theory with the modal summation method. The proposed procedure has been validated by considering the three-dimensional model of the Kanto basin (Japan) available in the literature. Three-dimensional simulations were performed for the 1990 Odawara earthquake. The results obtained were compared both with recorded signals and with simulations available in the literature for several stations located within the Kanto basin. Besides the advantage of being a useful tool for assessment of seismic hazard and seismic risk reduction, it is characterized by high efficiency, in fact, once the study region is identified and the 3D model is constructed, the computation, at each station, of the three components of the synthetic signal (displacement, velocity, and acceleration) takes less than 3 h on a 2 GHz CPU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the basis for a method for estimating the return period of large and medium earthquakes that is independent of current deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The two standard techniques of seismic hazard assessment-probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and deterministic seismic hazard assessment (DSHA)-suffer from limited knowledge of seismic prehistory. A further weakness of PSHA is its requirement of homogeneous seismic activity within a seismic zone. Moreover, PSHA and DSHA were developed for seismically active areas and, thus, cannot reliably be used in areas of medium and low activity. In this paper we propose the combined use of geodetic strain rate data and the seismic moment data set determined for past seismic events. This combination represents a new and independent approach to estimation of future seismic activity. Using a modified version of Kostrov's (Phys Solid Earth 1:23-40, ) equation and the catalogue of seismic moments, the minimum return period of the strongest earthquakes of a source area is estimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dense strong motion observation networks provided us with valuable data for studying strong motion generation from large earthquakes. From kinematic waveform inversion of seismic data, the slip distribution on the fault surface of large earthquakes is known to be spatially heterogeneous. Because heterogeneities in the slip and stress drop distributions control the generation of near-source ground motion, it is important to characterize these heterogeneities for past earthquakes in constructing a source model for reliable prediction of strong ground motion. The stress changes during large earthquakes on the faults recently occurring in Japan are estimated from the detailed slip models obtained by the kinematic waveform inversion. The stress drops on and off asperities are summarized on the basis of the stress change distributions obtained here. In this paper, we define the asperity to be a rectangular area whose slip is 1.5 or more times larger than the average slip over the fault according to the previous study for inland crustal earthquakes. The average static stress drops on the asperities of the earthquakes studied here are in the range 6-23 MPa, whereas those off the asperities are below 3 MPa. We compiled the stress drop on the asperities together with a data set from previous studies of other inland earthquakes in Japan and elsewhere. The static stress drop on the asperity depends on its depth, and we obtained an empirical relationship between the static stress drop and the asperity's depth. Moreover, surface-breaking asperities seemed to have smaller stress drops than buried asperities. Simple ground motion simulations using the characterized asperity source models reveal that deep asperities generate larger ground motion than shallow asperities, because of the different stress drops of the asperities. These characteristics can be used for advanced source modeling in strong ground motion prediction for inland crustal earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Izmir, the third largest city and one of the major economic centers in Turkey, has more than three million residents and one-half million buildings. The city, located in a seismically active region in western Anatolia, was a subject of the 1997 RADIUS (Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas against Seismic Disaster) project. In this paper, the seismic hazard of Izmir is investigated through probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. First, the seismic setting of Izmir is presented. Considering the statistics of earthquakes that took place in the region during the period 1900-2005, a simple seismic hazard model is used to facilitate the assessment. To account for modeling uncertainties associated with the values of seismicity parameters, a logic tree procedure is employed in carrying out the seismic hazard computations. The resulting weighted average seismic hazard, presented in terms of peak ground acceleration and associated probability of exceedence, could be considered the 'best estimate' of seismic hazard for Izmir. Accordingly, for a return period of 475 years, for rock sites, a PGA value of 0.34 g is calculated. This PGA hazard estimate is close to the current code-recommended design acceleration level for Izmir. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic hazard in terms of spectral acceleration ( SA) has been estimated for the first time in northern Algeria. For this purpose, we have used the spatially-smoothed seismicity approach. The present paper is intended to be a continuation of previous work in which we have evaluated the seismic hazard in terms of peak ground acceleration ( PGA) using the same methodology. To perform these evaluations, four complete and Poissonian seismic models have been used. One of them considers earthquakes with magnitudes above M S 6.5 in the last 300 years, that is, the most energetic seismicity in the region. Firstly, seismic hazard maps in terms of SA, at periods of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 sec, with 39.3% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, have been obtained. Therefore, uniform hazard spectra ( UHS) are computed and examined in detail for twelve of the most industrial and populated cities in northern Algeria. All the reported results in this study are for rock soil and 5% of damping. It is noteworthy that, in the seismic hazard maps as well as in the UHS plots, we observe maximum SA values in the central area of the Tell. The higher values are reached in the Chleff region (previously El Asnam), specifically around the location of the destructive earthquakes of September 9, 1954 ( M S 6.8), and October 10, 1980 ( M S 7.3). These maximum values, 0.4 g and 1.0 g, are associated with periods of about 0.2 and 0.3 sec for return periods of 100 and 475 years, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The occurrence of the Algiers earthquake ( M 6.8) of May 21, 2003, has motivated the necessity to reassess the probabilistic seismic hazard of northern Algeria. The fact that this destructive earthquake took place in an area where there was no evidence of previous significant earthquakes, neither instrumental nor historical, strongly encourages us to review the seismic hazard map of this region. Recently, the probabilistic seismic hazard of northern Algeria was computed using the spatially smoothed seismicity methodology. The catalog used in the previous computation was updated for this review, and not only includes information until June 2003, but also considers a recent re-evaluation of several historical earthquakes. In this paper, the same methodology and seismicity models are utilized in an effort to compare this methodology against an improved and updated seismic catalog. The largest mean peak ground acceleration (PGA) values are obtained in northernmost Algeria, specifically in the central area of the Tell Atlas. These values are of the order of 0.48 g for a return period of 475 years. In the City of Algiers, the capital of Algeria, and approximately 50 km from the reported epicenter of this latest destructive earthquake, a new mean PGA value of 0.23 g is obtained for the same return period. This value is 0.07 g greater than that obtained in the previous computation. In general, we receive greater seismic hazard results in the surrounding area of Algiers, especially to the southwest. The main reason is not this recent earthquake by itself, but the significant increase in the mmax magnitude in the seismic source where the city and the epicenter are included. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent earthquakes in California and Japan have shown the fundamental role that the road infrastructure plays in emergencies. In fact, only the maintenance of a sufficient level of efficiency can help to quickly reach the affected areas and thus avoid further serious consequences. The necessity of guaranteeing the functionality of the transport network during seismic events therefore requires seismic risk planning extended also to the road infrastructures in order to support the management of post-earthquake emergencies. Analogously it is fundamentally important to have analysis instruments of the road system able to preventatively evaluate the effects of earthquakes in order to identify possible emergencies, therefore preparing a program of intervention to reduce seismic risk on road networks. This paper proposes a methodology for the evaluation of seismic risk of road infrastructures according to the following points:•Study of seismic hazard of the site for the definition of a seismic scenario using attenuation models in relation to historical seismology and the geological and tectonic characteristics of the territory;•Analysis of the direct exposure connected to the probability of the presence of road users on the different parts of the network directly exposed to the seismic event;•Analysis of the indirect exposure relative to the distribution of the population and the infrastructures for which post-earthquake accessibility must be guaranteed;•Evaluation of the functional vulnerability in relation to the potential replaceability of damaged stretches considering network configuration and geometrical characteristics;•Evaluation of structural vulnerability of the stretch correlated to the characteristics (structural, mechanical, technological, etc.) of the different components (bridges, embankments, trenches, tunnels) that make up the stretches obtained by the use of correctly elaborated tables for each component.The determination of global risk indexes of the single stretches and of the network, evaluated by means of a relationship between the ascertained parameters derived from the investigation of the previous points, provides the necessary information for the definition of mitigation measures to reduce the risk and for management planning before and after disaster. The proposed methodology, which has already been applied to a restricted area, is currently being applied to the province of Catania (Sicily, Italy), which is one of the geographical regions of highest seismic risk in Europe, and its future extension to all of eastern Sicily is foreseeable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]