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The Region–Time–Length (RTL) algorithm has been applied to different instrumental catalogues to detect seismic quiescence before medium-to-large earthquakes in Italy in the last two decades. RTL performances are sensitive to the choice of spatial and temporal parameters. The method for automatic parameters selection developed by Chen and Wu has been applied to twelve Italian earthquakes with magnitude greater than 5. The limits of the method in constructing maps of seismic quiescence before the earthquake are demonstrated, and a simple improvement is proposed. Then a new technique, namely RTL, is proposed for routine surveys of the Italian seismicity. RTL has been applied to all the earthquakes with magnitude greater than 4 in the Italian area in the time interval 1994–2004; four different sub-areas have been identified, with different characteristics in the level of recorded seismicity. One subarea—Tyrrhenian Sea—was characterized by a too low level of recorded seismicity for the application of the method. In the other three subareas a seismic quiescence was detected before at least the 66% of the earthquakes with magnitude greater or equal to 4 and all the earthquakes with magnitude greater than 5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a simple method for long- and short-term earthquake forecasting (estimating earthquake rate per unit area, time, and magnitude). For illustration we apply the method to the Pacific plate boundary region and the Mediterranean area surrounding Italy and Greece. Our ultimate goal is to develop forecasting and testing methods to validate or falsify common assumptions regarding earthquake potential. Our immediate purpose is to extend the forecasts we made starting in 1999 for the northwest and southwest Pacific to include somewhat smaller earthquakes and then adapt the methods to apply in other areas. The previous forecasts used the CMT earthquake catalog to forecast magnitude 5.8 and larger earthquakes. Like our previous forecasts, the new ones here are based on smoothed maps of past seismicity and assume spatial clustering. Our short-term forecasts also assume temporal clustering. An important adaptation in the new forecasts is to abandon the use of tensor focal mechanisms. This permits use of earthquake catalogs that reliably report many smaller quakes with no such mechanism estimates. The result is that we can forecast earthquakes at higher spatial resolution and down to a magnitude threshold of 4.7. The new forecasts can be tested far more quickly because smaller events are considerably more frequent. Also, our previous method used the focal mechanisms of past earthquakes to estimate the preferred directions of earthquake clustering, however the method made assumptions that generally hold in subduction zones only. The new approach escapes those assumptions. In the northwest Pacific the new method gives estimated earthquake rate density very similar to that of the previous forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present results from a comparative analysis of empirical and synthetic shapes for isoseismals of low intensity (I = IV–VI on the MCS scale) for six Italian earthquakes of ML = 4.5–6. Our modeling of isoseismals is based on a plane-stratified earth model and on the double–couple point source approximation to calculate seismograms in the frequency range f ≤ 1 Hz. With a minimum of parameter variation we demonstrate that the low intensity isoseismals provide information on source geometry. We strive to avoid subjectivity in isoseismal constructions by using the new Diffuse Boundary method, which visualizes isoseismals with their uncertainty. Similar results in this direction are known for large earthquakes (ML ≈ 6 or greater) with extended sources and for the higher isoseismals (I ≥ VI on the MM scale). The latter studies disregard the earth structure, use a greater number of parameters, and therefore have greater possibilities for fitting the data than our approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse the seismic catalogue of the local earthquakes which occurred at Somma-Vesuvius volcano in the past three decades (1972–2000). The seismicity in this period can be described as composed of a background level, characterised by a low and rather uniform rate of energy release and by sporadic periods of increased seismic activity. Such relatively intense seismicity periods are characterised by energy rates and magnitudes progressively increasing in the critical periods. The analysis of the b value in the whole period evidences a well-defined pattern, with values of b progressively decreasing, from about 1.8 at the beginning of the considered period, to about 1.0 at present. This steady variation indicates an increasing dynamics in the volcanic system. Within this general trend it is possible to identify a substructure in the time sequence of the seismic events, formed by the alternating episodes of quiescence and activity. The analysis of the source moment tensor of the largest earthquakes shows that the processes at the seismic source are generally not consistent with simple double-couples, but that they are compatible with isotropic components, mostly indicating volumetric expansion. These components are shown to be statistically significant for most of the analysed events. Such focal mechanisms can be interpreted as the effect of explosion phenomena, possibly related to volatile exsolution from the crystallising magma. The availability of a reduced amount of high quality data necessary for the inversion of the source moment tensor, the still limited period of systematic observation of Vesuvius micro-earthquakes and, above all, the absence of eruptive events during such interval of time, cannot obviously permit the outlining of any formal premonitory signal. Nevertheless, the analysis reported in this paper indicates a progressively evolving dynamics, characterised by a generally increasing trend in the seismic activity in the volcanic system and by a significant volumetric component of recent major events, thus posing serious concern for a future evolution towards eruptive activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]