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- In order to verify some precursors such as LURR (Load/Unload Response Ratio) and AER (Accelerating Energy Release) before large earthquakes or macro-fracture in heterogeneous brittle media, four acoustic emission experiments involving large rock specimens under tri-axial stress, have been conducted. The specimens were loaded in two ways: monotonous or cycling. The experimental results confirm that LURR and AER are precursors of macro-fracture in brittle media. A new measure called the state vector has been proposed to describe the damage evolution of loaded rock specimens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

- Based on the theory of LURR and its recent development, spatial and temporal variation ofY/Y c (value of LURR/critical value of LURR) in the Southern California region during the period from 1980 through March, 2001 was studied. According to the previous study on the fault system and stress field in Southern California, we zoned the Southern California region into 11 parts in each of which the stress field is almost uniform. With the time window of one year, time moving step of three months, space window of a circle region with a radius of 100 km and space moving step of 0.25 degree in latitude and longitude direction, the evolution ofY/Y c were snapshot. The scanning results show that obviousY/Y c anomalies occurred before 5/6 of strong earthquakes considered with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater. The critical regions ofY/Y c are near the epicenters of the strong earthquakes and theY/Y c anomalies occur months to years prior to the earthquakes. The tendency of earthquake occurrence in the California region is briefly discussed on the basis of the examination ofY/Y c. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Western Sichuan is among the most seismically active regions in southwestern China and is characterized by frequent strong (M ≥ 6.5) earthquakes, mainly along the Xianshuihe fault zone. Historical and instrumental seismicity show a temporal pattern of active periods separated by inactive ones, while in space a remarkable epicenter migration has been observed. During the last active period starting in 1893, the sinistral strike–slip Xianshuihe fault of 350 km total length, was entirely broken with the epicenters of successive strong earthquakes migrating along its strike. This pattern is investigated by resolving changes of Coulomb failure function (ΔCFF) since 1893 and hence the evolution of the stress field in the area during the last 110 years. Coulomb stress changes were calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic halfspace, and taking into account both the coseismic slip in strong (M ≥ 6.5) earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup associated with major fault segments. The stress change calculations were performed for faults of strike, dip, and rake appropriate to the strong events. We evaluate whether these stress changes brought a given strong earthquake closer to, or sent it farther from, failure. It was found that all strong earthquakes, and moreover, the majority of smaller events for which reliable fault plane solutions are available, have occurred on stress–enhanced fault segments providing a convincing case in which Coulomb stress modeling gives insight into the temporal and spatial manifestation of seismic activity. We extend the stress calculations to the year 2025 and provide an assessment for future seismic hazard by identifying the fault segments that are possible sites of future strong earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 26 January, 2001 (03:46:55,UT) a devastating intraplate earthquake of Mw 7.7 occurred in a region about 5 km NW of Bhachau, Gujarat (23.42°N, 70.23°E). The epicentral distribution of aftershocks defines a marked concentration along an E-W trending and southerly dipping (≈45°) zone covering an area of (60 × 40) km2. The presence of high seismicity including two earthquakes of magnitudes exceeding 7.7 in the 200 years is presumed to have caused a higher level of shallow crustal heterogeneity in the Kutch area; a site lying in the seismic zone V (zone of the highest seismicity for potentially M8 earthquakes) on the seismic zoning map of India. Attenuation property of the medium around the epicentral area of the Bhuj earthquake covering a circular area of 61,500 km2 with a radius of 140 km is studied by estimating the coda-Qc from 200 local earthquakes of magnitudes varying from 3.0–4.6. The estimated Q0 values at locations in the aftershock zone (high seismicity) are found to be low in comparison to areas at a distance from it. This can be attributed to the fact that seismic waves are highly scattered for paths through the seismically active and fractured zone but they are well behaved outside the aftershock zone. Distribution of Q0 values suggests that the local variation in Q0 values is probably controlled by local geology. The estimated Q0 values at different stations suggest a low value of Q=(102 ± 0.80)*f(0.98 ± 0.02) indicating an attenuative crust beneath the entire region. The frequency-dependent relation indicates a relatively low Qc at lower frequencies (1–3 Hz) that can be attributed to the loss of energy due to scattering attenuation associated with heterogeneities and/or intrinsic attenuation due to fluid movement in the fault zone and fluid-filled cracks. The large Qc at higher frequencies may be related to the propagation of backscattered body waves through deeper parts of the lithosphere where less heterogeneity is expected. Based on the attenuation curve estimated for Q0=102, the ground acceleration at 240 km distance is 13% of 1 g i.e., 0.13 g agreeing well with the ground acceleration recorded by an accelerograph at Ahmedabad (0.11 g). Hence, it is inferred that the Q0 value obtained from this study seems to be apt for prediction of ground motion for the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a generic equation for the evaluation of the maximum earthquake magnitude mmax for a given seismogenic zone or entire region. The equation is capable of generating solutions in different forms, depending on the assumptions of the statistical distribution model and/or the available information regarding past seismicity. It includes the cases (i) when earthquake magnitudes are distributed according to the doubly-truncated Gutenberg-Richter relation, (ii) when the empirical magnitude distribution deviates moderately from the Gutenberg-Richter relation, and (iii) when no specific type of magnitude distribution is assumed. Both synthetic, Monte-Carlo simulated seismic event catalogues, and actual data from Southern California, are used to demonstrate the procedures given for the evaluation of mmax. The three estimates of mmax for Southern California, obtained by the three procedures mentioned above, are respectively: 8.32 ± 0.43, 8.31 ± 0.42 and 8.34 ± 0.45. All three estimates are nearly identical, although higher than the value 7.99 obtained by Field et al. (1999). In general, since the third procedure is non-parametric and does not require specification of the functional form of the magnitude distribution, its estimate of the maximum earthquake magnitude mmax is considered more reliable than the other two which are based on the Gutenberg-Richter relation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important approach for computation of the earth’s polarizability is achieved by developing a novel method with new parameters called Natural Percent Frequency Effect (NPFE) and Natural Metal Factor (NMF) resulting from telluric logging data taken at different frequencies. The essential advantage of the developed approach relies on using natural electrical currents instead of an artificial electrical source usually needed in the standard frequency domain applied in the induced polarization method. Furthermore, a good qualitative correlation has been found between the new parameters and those of the traditional induced polarization method obtained in time and frequency domains. The new method has been tested in well 32 in the Rouez mine in France, where sulphide mineralization is well known to occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A simplified technique for simulation of wide-band strong motion based on simple regression relations and Empirical Green’s Function (EGF) technique by Irikura (1986) is presented in this paper. The method uses the acceleration envelope as a shaping window for a filtered white Gaussian noise, to get the synthetic accelerogram from each subfault. Correction factors for slip of large and small events and transmission factors at each boundary of different layers are included in this synthetic accelerogram. The synthetic accelerogram obtained from each subfault is used as the Green’s function to get resultant records. Simulations are made for the confirmed models of the Uttarkashi and the Chamoli earthquakes at a number of stations to get wide-band strong ground motion. The comparison of synthetic with the observed records over a wide range of frequencies for two different Himalayan earthquakes establishes the efficacy of the present technique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present results from a comparative analysis of empirical and synthetic shapes for isoseismals of low intensity (I = IV–VI on the MCS scale) for six Italian earthquakes of ML = 4.5–6. Our modeling of isoseismals is based on a plane-stratified earth model and on the double–couple point source approximation to calculate seismograms in the frequency range f ≤ 1 Hz. With a minimum of parameter variation we demonstrate that the low intensity isoseismals provide information on source geometry. We strive to avoid subjectivity in isoseismal constructions by using the new Diffuse Boundary method, which visualizes isoseismals with their uncertainty. Similar results in this direction are known for large earthquakes (ML ≈ 6 or greater) with extended sources and for the higher isoseismals (I ≥ VI on the MM scale). The latter studies disregard the earth structure, use a greater number of parameters, and therefore have greater possibilities for fitting the data than our approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse the seismic catalogue of the local earthquakes which occurred at Somma-Vesuvius volcano in the past three decades (1972–2000). The seismicity in this period can be described as composed of a background level, characterised by a low and rather uniform rate of energy release and by sporadic periods of increased seismic activity. Such relatively intense seismicity periods are characterised by energy rates and magnitudes progressively increasing in the critical periods. The analysis of the b value in the whole period evidences a well-defined pattern, with values of b progressively decreasing, from about 1.8 at the beginning of the considered period, to about 1.0 at present. This steady variation indicates an increasing dynamics in the volcanic system. Within this general trend it is possible to identify a substructure in the time sequence of the seismic events, formed by the alternating episodes of quiescence and activity. The analysis of the source moment tensor of the largest earthquakes shows that the processes at the seismic source are generally not consistent with simple double-couples, but that they are compatible with isotropic components, mostly indicating volumetric expansion. These components are shown to be statistically significant for most of the analysed events. Such focal mechanisms can be interpreted as the effect of explosion phenomena, possibly related to volatile exsolution from the crystallising magma. The availability of a reduced amount of high quality data necessary for the inversion of the source moment tensor, the still limited period of systematic observation of Vesuvius micro-earthquakes and, above all, the absence of eruptive events during such interval of time, cannot obviously permit the outlining of any formal premonitory signal. Nevertheless, the analysis reported in this paper indicates a progressively evolving dynamics, characterised by a generally increasing trend in the seismic activity in the volcanic system and by a significant volumetric component of recent major events, thus posing serious concern for a future evolution towards eruptive activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Aftershock sequence of Chamoli earthquake (Mw 6.4) of 29 March 1999 is analyzed to study the fractal structure in space, time and magnitude distribution. The b value is found to be 0.63 less than which is usually observed worldwide and in the Himalayas. This indicates that the numbers of smaller earthquakes are relatively less than the larger ones. The spatial correlation is 1.64, indicating that events are approaching a two-dimensional region meaning that the aftershocks are uniformly distributed along the trend of the aftershock zone. Temporal correlation is 0.86 for aftershocks of M ≥ 1, indicating a nearly continuous aftershock activity. However, it is 0.5 for aftershocks of M ≥ 1.75, indicating a non continuous aftershock activity. From the assessment of slip on different faults it is inferred that 70% displacement is accommodated on the primary fault and the remainder on secondary faults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— Submarine and shoreline slope failures that accompany large earthquakes and large tsunamis are triggered by several mechanisms. Triggering mechanisms range from direct effects, such as inertial forces from earthquake shaking, to indirect effects, such as rapid drawdown that occurs when an earthquake-generated tsunami first approaches a shoreline. Soil shear strength also plays an important role in earthquake-related slope failures. Earthquakes change the shear strength of the soil by inducing excess pore water pressures. These excess pore water pressures change with time after the earthquake, resulting in changes in shear strength and slope stability with time. This paper reviews earthquake-related triggering mechanisms for submarine and shoreline slope failures. The variation in shear strength with time following an earthquake is examined and it is shown that delayed slope failures after an earthquake can occur as a result of changes in earthquake-induced excess pore water pressures and shear strength with time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— Underwater landslides can trigger local tsunamis with high runup, endangering human life and devastating coastal cities, offshore structures, communication cables, and port facilities. Unfortunately, hazards from underwater landslides are not well understood and the extents of their potential damage remain difficult to ascertain at present. There is immediate need for multidisciplinary research to improve our understanding and plan countermeasures for mitigating their hazards. Conceived in the wake of the Papua New Guinea earthquake landslide and tsunami of 1998, this volume summarizes the state-of-the-art knowledge on underwater landslides and their potential to generate tsunamis from the multidisciplinary perspectives of observational and engineering seismology, geotechnical engineering, marine geology, and hydrodynamics. These various fields of engineering and science offer new synergetic opportunities to examine landslide tsunamis. This paper makes recommendations on future research directions, and will hopefully advance scientists' and engineers' understanding of these natural hazards and assist planners in mitigating their risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— Some underwater landslides are triggered by strong ground motions caused by earthquakes. This paper reviews current concepts and trends in the characterization of strong ground motion. Improved empirical ground motion models have been derived from a strong motion data set that has grown markedly over the past decade. However, these empirical models have a large degree of uncertainty because the magnitude-distance-soil category parameterization of these models often oversimplifies reality. This reflects the fact that other conditions that are known to have an important influence on strong ground motions, such as near-fault rupture directivity effects, crustal waveguide effects, and basin response effects, are not treated as parameters of these simple models. Numerical ground motion models based on seismological theory that include these additional effects have been developed and extensively validated against recorded ground motions, and used to estimate the ground motions of past earthquakes and predict the ground motions of future scenario earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— The unusual tsunami generated by the July 17, 1998 Papua New Guinea earthquake was investigated on the basis of various geophysical observations, including seismological data, tsunami waveform records, and on-land and submarine surveys. The tsunami source models were constructed for seismological high-angle and low-angle faults, splay fault, and submarine slumps. Far-field and near-field tsunamis computed from these models were compared with the recorded waveforms in and around Japan and the measured heights along the coast around Sissano Lagoon, respectively. In order to reproduce the far-field tsunami waveforms, small sources such as splay fault or submarine slump alone were not enough, and a seismological fault model was required. Relocated aftershock distribution and observed coastal subsidence were preferable for the low-angle fault, but the low-angle fault alone could not reproduce the large near-field tsunamis. The low-angle fault with additional source, possibly a submarine slump, is the most likely source of the 1998 tsunami, although other possibilities cannot be excluded. Computations from different source models showed that the far-field tsunami amplitudes are proportional to the displaced water volume at the source, and the comparison with the observed tsunami amplitudes indicated that the displaced water volume at the 1998 tsunami source was ∼0.6 km3. The near-filed tsunami heights, on the other hand, are determined by the potential energy of displaced water, and the comparison with the observed heights showed that the potential energy was ∼2 × 1012 J. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— The main active faults of the Granada Basin are located in its central-eastern sector, where the most important tectonic activity is concentrated, uplifting its eastern part and sinking the western border. Several parameters related to the seismic potentiality of these active, or in some cases probably active, faults in this basin are used for the first time. Many of these faults can generate earthquakes with magnitudes larger than 6.0 MW, although this is not the general case. The fault situated to the N of Sierra Tejeda, probably the one responsible for the big earthquake of 25/12/1884, stands out, because it could generate an earthquake with magnitude 6.9 MW. Although at present all the data needed are not fully known, we consider that the final results show, as a whole, the average expected return periods of the faults in the Granada Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— The time variation of two parameters related to accelerating seismic deformation before strong earthquakes in the Aegean area is examined. The first is the b parameter of the Gutenberg-Richter relation and the second is the curvature parameter C, which is a measure of deviation of the accelerating preshock deformation from a linear time variation of this deformation. Following two different procedures, it was found that the b value exhibits a decreasing trend prior to the oncoming earthquake, in agreement with the results of laboratory experiments and other independent observations. C values also show a decreasing trend before main shocks. These results indicate that such time variations of these parameters can be considered as precursory phenomena of ensuing strong earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]