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In earthquake seismology, an independent earthquake can produce a set of clusters having fore- and/or aftershocks. The main purpose of seismicity declustering is to refine a given earthquake catalog in order to retain independent events. The goal of retention of independent events by only declustering is a crucial benchmark for most of the mainshock-based analysis in seismology. In the present article, we used a re-updated unified earthquake catalog of Turkey and obtained several declustered catalogs applying different declustering methods. To compare the performance of applied declustering methods, each declustered catalog was then examined by simulation envelopes and Monte Carlo tests using some summary statistics for temporal and spatial point patterns. We found that the declustering method of Zhuang et al. (2002) based on the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, original version, and particularly Grünthal's variant of the Gardner and Knopoff (1974) method seemed to be most successful in finding and removing clusters in space and time for the earthquake catalog of Turkey examined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The collision between the Arabian and Eurasian plates in eastern Turkey causes the Anatolian block to move westward. The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is a major strike-slip fault that forms the northern boundary of the Anatolian block, and the Erzincan Basin is the largest sedimentary basin on the NAF. In the last century, two large earthquakes have ruptured the NAF within the Erzincan Basin and caused major damage ( M = 8.0 in 1939 and M = 6.8 in 1992). The seismic hazard in Erzincan from future earthquakes on the NAF is significant because the unconsolidated sedimentary basin can amplify the ground motion during an earthquake. The amount of amplification depends on the thickness and geometry of the basin. Geophysical constraints can be used to image basin depth and predict the amount of seismic amplification. In this study, the basin geometry and fault zone structure were investigated using broadband magnetotelluric (MT) data collected on two profiles crossing the Erzincan Basin. A total of 24 broadband MT stations were acquired with 1-2 km spacing in 2005. Inversion of the MT data with 1D, 2D and 3D algorithms showed that the maximum thickness of the unconsolidated sediments is ~3 km in the Erzincan Basin. The MT resistivity models show that the northern flanks of the basin have a steeper dip than the southern flanks, and the basin deepens towards the east where it has a depth of 3.5 km. The MT models also show that the structure of the NAF may vary from east to west along the Erzincan Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A temporary earthquake station network of 11 seismological recorders was operated in the Bursa region, south of the Marmara Sea in the northwest of Turkey, which is located at the southern strand of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). We located 384 earthquakes out of a total of 582 recorded events that span the study area between 28.50-30.00°E longitudes and 39.75-40.75°N latitudes. The depth of most events was found to be less than 29 km, and the magnitude interval ranges were between 0.3 ≤ M ≤ 5.4, with RMS less than or equal to 0.2. Seismic activities were concentrated southeast of Uludag Mountain (UM), in the Kestel-Igdir area and along the Gemlik Fault (GF). In the study, we computed 10 focal mechanisms from temporary and permanents networks. The predominant feature of the computed focal mechanisms is the relatively widespread near horizontal northwest-southeast (NW-SE) T-axis orientation. These fault planes have been used to obtain the orientation and shape factor (R, magnitude stress ratio) of the principal stress tensors (σ, σ, σ). The resulting stress tensors reveal σ closer to the vertical (oriented NE-SW) and σ, σ horizontal with R = 0.5. These results confirm that Bursa and its vicinity could be defined by an extensional regime showing a primarily normal to oblique-slip motion character. It differs from what might be expected from the stress tensor inversion for the NAFZ. Different fault patterns related to structural heterogeneity from the north to the south in the study area caused a change in the stress regime from strike-slip to normal faulting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Izmir, the third largest city and one of the major economic centers in Turkey, has more than three million residents and one-half million buildings. The city, located in a seismically active region in western Anatolia, was a subject of the 1997 RADIUS (Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas against Seismic Disaster) project. In this paper, the seismic hazard of Izmir is investigated through probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. First, the seismic setting of Izmir is presented. Considering the statistics of earthquakes that took place in the region during the period 1900-2005, a simple seismic hazard model is used to facilitate the assessment. To account for modeling uncertainties associated with the values of seismicity parameters, a logic tree procedure is employed in carrying out the seismic hazard computations. The resulting weighted average seismic hazard, presented in terms of peak ground acceleration and associated probability of exceedence, could be considered the 'best estimate' of seismic hazard for Izmir. Accordingly, for a return period of 475 years, for rock sites, a PGA value of 0.34 g is calculated. This PGA hazard estimate is close to the current code-recommended design acceleration level for Izmir. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Western Turkey has a long history of destructive earthquakes that are responsible for the death of thousands of people and which caused devastating damage to the existing infrastructures, and cultural and historical monuments. The recent earthquakes of Izmit (Kocaeli) on 17 August, 1999 ( M = 7.4) and Düzce ( M = 7.2) on 12 November, 1999, which occurred in the neighboring fault segments along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), were catastrophic ones for the Marmara region and surroundings in NW Turkey. Stress transfer between the two adjacent fault segments successfully explained the temporal proximity of these events. Similar evidence is also provided from recent studies dealing with successive strong events occurrence along the NAF and parts of the Aegean Sea; in that changes in the stress field due to the coseismic displacement of the stronger events influence the occurrence of the next events of comparable size by advancing their occurrence time and delimiting their occurrence place. In the present study the evolution of the stress field since the beginning of the twentieth century in the territory of the eastern Aegean Sea and western Turkey is examined, in an attempt to test whether the history of cumulative changes in stress can explain the spatial and temporal occurrence patterns of large earthquakes in this area. Coulomb stress changes are calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in elastic half space, taking into account both the coseismic slip in large ( M ≥ 6.5) earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup along the major fault segments. The stress change calculations were performed for strike-slip and normal faults. In each stage of the evolutionary model the stress field is calculated according to the strike, dip, and rake angles of the next large event, whose triggering is inspected, and the possible sites for future strong earthquakes can be assessed. A new insight on the evaluation of future seismic hazards is given by translating the calculated stress changes into earthquake probability using an earthquake nucleation constitutive relation, which includes permanent and transient effects of the sudden stress changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The eastern Anatolia is a continental collisional zone between the Arabia-Eurasia plates and is currently being accompanied by the westward escape of the Anatolian crustal block to the west-southwest along two major strike-slip fault zones, the NATF and the EATF. Although these major fault zones have experienced historical earthquakes with moderate to high magnitude, notably there is a low seismicity zone on the active EATF between the Bitlis and Pötürge massifs. The low seismicity zone is characterized by thinner crustal structure relative to its environs, the shallow Curie Point Depth (SCPD, ca 12–14 km in between 39–40°E and 38.5–39°N in the easternmost part of the Anatolian plate) and moderate to high b values (more than 0.7). We consider that the shallow CPD and moderate to high b values in the low seismicity zone characterized by thinner crustal area are closely related with the higher thermal structure of the crust, which most probably resulted from crust-hot asthenospheric mantle interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Western Anatolia is presented using the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) frequency-magnitude relation. Since the modeling is sensitive to the location of seismotectonics boundaries, to use the information content of the observed earthquake data, as a general rule the borders of the affected area are extended. In this study, the effect of the region’s definition on the G-R model is debated on the Western Anatolian region, which is one of the most seismically active and rapidly deforming regions of the world throughout the ages. Calculations are carried out for two subregions and one combined region as a whole using the seismic catalog from 1900 to 2005. The data sets are determined by the region’s borders with the parameters computed according to these data sets by the least-squares and maximum likelihood methods, and then future predictions are estimated via these parameters. Comparing the results with historical earthquake records, most appropriate regional borders for Western Anatolia are defined, and for this new region G-R model parameters are obtained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aftershock sequences of the magnitude M W =6.4 Bingöl earthquake of 1 May, 2003 (Turkey) are studied to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of seismicity parameters of the b value of the frequency-magnitude distribution and the p value describing the temporal decay rate of aftershocks. The catalog taken from the KOERI contains 516 events and one month’s time interval. The b value is found as 1.49 ± 0.07 with Mc =3.2. Considering the error limits, b value is very close to the maximum b value stated in the literature. This larger value may be caused by the paucity of the larger aftershocks with magnitude M D ≥ 5.0. Also, the aftershock area is divided into four parts in order to detect the differences in b value and the changes illustrate the heterogeneity of the aftershock region. The p value is calculated as 0.86 ± 0.11, relatively small. This small p value may be a result of the slow decay rate of the aftershock activity and the small number of aftershocks. For the fitting of a suitable model and estimation of correct values of decay parameters, the sequence is also modeled as a background seismicty rate model. Constant background activity does not appear to be important during the first month of the Bingöl aftershock sequences and this result is coherent with an average estimation of pre-existing seismicity. The results show that usage of simple modified Omori law is reasonable for the analysis. The spatial variability in b value is between 1.2 and 1.8 and p value varies from 0.6 to 1.2. Although the physical interpretation of the spatial variability of these seismicity parameters is not straightforward, the variation of b and p values can be related to the stress and slip distribution after the mainshock, respectively. The lower b values are observed in the high stress regions and to a certain extent, the largest b values are related to Holocene alluvium. The larger p values are found in some part of the aftershock area although no slip occurred after the main shock and it is interpreted that this situation may be caused by the alluvium structure of the region. These results indicate that the spatial distribution in b and p values are generally related to the rupture mechanism and material properties of an aftershock area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intrinsic dissipation and scattering attenuation in southwestern (SW) Anatolia, which is a tectonically active region, is studied using the coda waves. First the coda quality factor ( Q c ) assuming single scattering is estimated from the slope of the coda-wave amplitude decay. Then the Multiple Lapse Time Window (MLTW) analysis is performed with a uniform earth model. Three non-overlapping temporal data windows are used to calculate the scattered seismic energy densities against the source-receiver distances, which, in turn, are used to calculate separate estimates of the intrinsic and scattering factors. In order to explore the frequency dependency, the observed seismograms are band pass-filtered at the center frequencies of 0.75, 1.5, 3.0, 6.0 and 12.0. The scattering attenuation ( Q s −1) is found lower than the intrinsic attenuation ( Q i −1) at all frequencies except at 0.75 Hz where the opposite is observed. Overall the intrinsic attenuation dominates over the scattering attenuation in the SW Anatolia region. The integrated energy curves obtained for the first energy window (i.e., 0–15 s) are somewhat irregular with distance while the second (i.e., 15–30 s) and third (i.e., 30–45 s) data windows exhibit more regular change with distance at most frequencies. The seismic albedo B 0 is determined as 0.61 at 0.75 Hz and 0.34 at 12.0 Hz while the total attenuation factor denoted by L e −1 changes in the range 0.034–0.017. For the source-station range 20–180 km considered the scattering attenuation is found strongly frequency dependent given by the power law Q s −1 = 0.010* f −1.508. The same relations for Q i −1, Q t −1 (total), Q c −1 and $${\tilde{Q}}^{{- 1}}_{c}$$ (expected) hold as Q i −1 = 0.0090* f −1.17, Q t −1 = 0.019* f −1.31, Q c −1 = 0.008* f −0.84 and $${\tilde{Q}}_{c}^{{- 1}} = 0.014*f^{{- 0.87}},$$ respectively. Compared to the other attenuation factors Q c −1 and $${\tilde{Q}}^{{- 1}}_{c}$$ are less dependent on the frequency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze temporal variations of seismic velocity along the Karadere-Düzce branch of the north Anatolian fault using seismograms generated by repeating earthquake clusters in the aftershock zones of the 1999 Mw7.4 İzmit and Mw7.1 Düzce earthquakes. The analysis employs 36 sets of highly repeating earthquakes, each containing 4–18 events. The events in each cluster are relocated by detailed multi-step analysis and are likely to rupture approximately the same fault patch at different times. The decay rates of the repeating events in individual clusters are compatible with the Omori's law for the decay rate of regional aftershocks. A sliding window waveform cross-correlation technique is used to measure travel time differences and evolving decorrelation in waveforms generated by each set of the repeating events. We find clear step-like delays in the direct S and early S-coda waves (sharp seismic velocity reduction) immediately after the Düzce main shock, followed by gradual logarithmic-type recoveries. A gradual increase of seismic velocities is also observed before the Düzce main shock, probably reflecting post-seismic recovery from the earlier İzmit main shock. The temporal behavior is similar at each station for clusters at various source locations, indicating that the temporal changes of material properties occur in the top most portion of the crust. The effects are most prominent at stations situated in the immediate vicinity of the recently ruptured fault zones, and generally decrease with normal distance from the fault. A strong correlation between the co-seismic delays and intensities of the strong ground motion generated by the Düzce main shock implies that the radiated seismic waves produced the velocity reductions in the shallow material. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]