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Start Over Author "Rundle, John B." Journal pure and applied geophysics: pageoph
26 results on '"Rundle, John B."'

3. Space- and Time-Dependent Probabilities for Earthquake Fault Systems from Numerical Simulations: Feasibility Study and First Results

Author

Aalsburg, Jordan, Rundle, John B., Grant, Lisa B., Rundle, Paul B., Yakovlev, Gleb, Turcotte, Donald L., Donnellan, Andrea, Tiampo, Kristy F., and Fernandez, Jose

Subjects
Earth Sciences, Geophysics/Geodesy, Earthquakes, forecasting, California seismicity, earthquake hazard
Abstract

In weather forecasting, current and past observational data are routinely assimilated into numerical simulations to produce ensemble forecasts of future events in a process termed “model steering”. Here we describe a similar approach that is motivated by analyses of previous forecasts of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP). Our approach is adapted to the problem of earthquake forecasting using topologically realistic numerical simulations for the strike-slip fault system in California. By systematically comparing simulation data to observed paleoseismic data, a series of spatial probability density functions (PDFs) can be computed that describe the probable locations of future large earthquakes. We develop this approach and show examples of PDFs associated with magnitude M > 6.5 and M > 7.0 earthquakes in California.

Published
2010

4. Forecasting the Locations of Future Large Earthquakes: An Analysis and Verification

Author

Shcherbakov, Robert, Turcotte, Donald L., Rundle, John B., Tiampo, Kristy F., and Holliday, James R.

Subjects
Earth Sciences, Geophysics/Geodesy, Earthquake forecasting, ROC diagram, error diagram, forecast verification
Abstract

The objective of this paper is to quantify the use of past seismicity to forecast the locations of future large earthquakes and introduce optimization methods for the model parameters. To achieve this the binary forecast approach is used where the surface of the Earth is divided into l° × l° cells. The cumulative Benioff strain of m ≥ m c earthquakes that occurred during the training period, ΔT tr, is used to retrospectively forecast the locations of large target earthquakes with magnitudes ≥m T during the forecast period, ΔT for. The success of a forecast is measured in terms of hit rates (fraction of earthquakes forecast) and false alarm rates (fraction of alarms that do not forecast earthquakes). This binary forecast approach is quantified using a receiver operating characteristic diagram and an error diagram. An optimal forecast can be obtained by taking the maximum value of Pierce’s skill score.

Published
2010

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