1. THE LIMITS OF STATISTICS IN PLANNING ANALYSIS.
- Author
-
Neuberg, Leland Gerson
- Subjects
STATISTICS ,EMPIRICAL research ,PHILOSOPHICAL analysis ,PROBABILITY theory ,SOCIAL sciences ,CAUSAL models - Abstract
The article discusses that three classical philosophical problems and four problems in social-level analysis play a role in imposing limits on the use of statistics in social-level empirical research and in planning. Although statistical method is very popular in social-level analysis, empirical evidence of (relatively) unequivocal success on this level occurs less frequently than in either physics or biological-level analysis. The limits for statistics in social-level analysis can be overcome while remaining within the statistical way-of-knowing, but only partially. Subjective or personal probability overcomes the difficulties of objective probability but subjective probability is in turn limited, if arbitrariness is to be avoided, to a code of consistency for the person applying it. Statistically sophisticated causal-modeling approaches can partially (but only incompletely) test for causality experimentally. Assumptions about the underlying distribution can sometimes be weakened but often not without creating nearly insurmountable calculative difficulties.
- Published
- 1977
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