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Lack of constraint on spatial and long-term temporal variability of the El Niño southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its sensitivity to external forcing limit our ability to evaluate climate models and ENSO future projections. Current knowledge of Holocene ENSO variability derived from paleoclimate reconstructions does not separate the role of insolation forcing from internal climate variability. Using an updated synthesis of coral and bivalve monthly resolved records, we build composite records of seasonality and interannual variability in four regions of the tropical Pacific: Eastern Pacific (EP), Central Pacific (CP), Western Pacific (WP) and South West Pacific (SWP). An analysis of the uncertainties due to the sampling of chaotic multidecadal to centennial variability by short records allows for an objective comparison with transient simulations (mid-Holocene to present) performed using four different Earth System models. Sea surface temperature and pseudo-δ18O are used in model-data comparisons to assess the potential influence of hydroclimate change on records. We confirm the significance of the Holocene ENSO minimum (HEM) 3-6ka compared to low frequency unforced modulation of ENSO, with a reduction of ENSO variance of ∼50 % in EP and ∼80 % in CP. The approach suggests that the increasing trend of ENSO since 6ka can be attributed to insolation, while models underestimate ENSO sensitivity to orbital forcing by a factor of 4.7 compared to data, even when accounting for the large multidecadal variability. Precession-induced change in seasonal temperature range is positively linked to ENSO variance in EP and to a lesser extent in other regions, in both models and observations. Our regional approach yields insights into the past spatial expression of ENSO across the tropical Pacific. In the SWP, today under the influence of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), interannual variability was increased by ∼200 % during the HEM, indicating that SPCZ variability is independent from ENSO on millennial time scales. • Composite paleo-ENSO records compared to transient simulations in 4 Pacific regions. • Holocene ENSO minimum (HEM) 3-6ka is significant compared to centennial variability. • Trend in ENSO since 6ka is robustly attributed to insolation forcing. • Seasonal range and ENSO are positively linked in both models and observations. • The interannual variability in the SPCZ was strongly increased during the HEM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New pollen data from Omani mangroves (Kwar-al-Jaramah [22.49° N - 59.76° E] and Filim [20.61° N - 58.17° E]), in addition to previously published paleohydrological records from Southern Arabia improve our understanding of the timing and amplitude of the southward retreat of the Indian monsoon influence in Southern Arabia along a north-south transect. Comparison with simulations performed with the IPSL climate model, considering both snapshot experiments and transient simulations from 6000 cal yr BP to the present, confirm the latitudinally time-transgressive nature of the humid-arid transition at the end of the Holocene Humid Period. This occurred in two steps, respectively dated at around 5000 and 2700 cal yr BP. At around 5000 cal yr BP, the southward ITCZ shift was orbitally-driven and led to the abrupt aridification at Kwar-al-Jaramah and the progressive increase of dryness at Filim as the mean position of the ITCZ was centered ca 22.30°N. At 2700 cal yr BP, aridity was fully in place over all of southern Arabia due to increased climate variability. More intense rainy events during the last millennium, however, may have contributed to the discrete hydrological improvement without any impact on the regional vegetation which has remained desert to the present day. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The comparison between different climate model simulations of water hosing experiments under glacial conditions points toward diverging responses in Sea Surface Temperature changes (SST) especially in the Southeast Pacific (SEP). This suggests that reconstituting the latitudinal SST gradient in the SEP is a critical parameter for a better understanding of the mechanisms behind the abrupt climatic events since the last glacial period. Here we present, high-resolution records of SST, using planktonic foraminiferal assemblages and alkenone temperature reconstructions and stable oxygen and carbon isotopes from three deep-sea sediment cores along a latitudinal transect off the southern Chilean coast. This allowed us to reconstruct the variations of the latitudinal SST gradient and the Subtropical Front movements in the SEP. The SST results suggest a clear Antarctic timing consistent with the bipolar seesaw control, especially during the late glacial and the deglaciation. Our records do not suggest a complete oceanic heat transfer signal, highlighting the implication of an atmospheric component in the heat transfers between the two hemispheres, controlled by the latitudinal movements of the intertropical convergence zone in the Atlantic and the associated weaker South Pacific westerly split jet. Furthermore, our records indicate variable conditions during the Holocene, and also emphasize the influence of local fresh water inputs from the Patagonian ice sheet and/or precipitation on the SST fresh water input estimates along the Chilean margin (North and South of 49° S) from the onset of the deglaciation until 8 kyr cal. BP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variability on centennial to multi-centennial timescales is mentioned as a feature in reconstructions of the Holocene climate. As more long transient model simulations with complex climate models become available and efforts have been made to compile large proxy databases, there is now a unique opportunity to study multi-centennial variability with greater detail and a large amount of data than earlier. This paper presents a spectral analysis of transient Holocene simulations from 9 models and 120 proxy records to find the common signals related to oscillation periods and geographic dependencies and discuss the implications for the potential driving mechanisms. Multi-centennial variability is significant in most proxy records, with the dominant oscillation periods around 120–130 years and an average of 240 years. Spectra of model-based global mean temperature (GMT) agree well with proxy evidence with significant multi-centennial variability in all simulations with the dominant oscillation periods around 120–150 years. It indicates a comparatively good agreement between model and proxy data. A lack of latitudinal dependencies in terms of oscillation period is found in both the model and proxy data. However, all model simulations have the highest spectral density distributed over the Northern hemisphere high latitudes, which could indicate a particular variability sensitivity or potential driving mechanisms in this region. Five models also have differentiated forcings simulations with various combinations of forcing agents. Significant multi-centennial variability with oscillation periods between 100 and 200 years is found in all forcing scenarios, including those with only orbital forcing. The different forcings induce some variability in the system. Yet, none appear to be the predominant driver based on the spectral analysis. Solar irradiance has long been hypothesized to be a primary driver of multi-centennial variability. However, all the simulations without this forcing have shown significant multi-centennial variability. The results then indicate that internal mechanisms operate on multi-centennial timescales, and the North Atlantic-Arctic is a region of interest for this aspect. • Multi-centennial oscillation with 100–200 years periods is evident in proxy data and model simulations during the Holocene. • Multi-centennial oscillation is a global signal and is more significant in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. • None of the external forcings is found to be the sole driver of the multi-centennial variability. • It indicates the multi-centennial oscillation may be due to potential internal drivers and essential feedbacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial pattern of Antarctic surface air temperature variability on multi–decadal to multi–centennial time scales is poorly known because of the short instrumental records, the relatively small number of high–resolution paleoclimate observations, and biases in climate models. Here, changes in surface air temperature over Antarctica are reconstructed over the past two millennia using data assimilation constrained by different ice core water isotope records in order to identify robust signals. The comparison between previous statistically based temperature reconstructions and simulations covering the full Common Era driven by natural and anthropogenic forcings shows major discrepancies occurring in the period 1–1000 CE over East Antarctica, with the reconstructions displaying a warming over 1–500 CE that is not reproduced by the simulations. This suggests that the trends in the first millennium deduced from the statistically based reconstructions are unlikely to be entirely forced by external forcings. Our reconstructions show the high sensitivity of the 500-year temperature trend in Antarctica and its spatial distribution to selection of the records for the reconstructions, especially during 1–500 CE. A robust cooling over Antarctica during 501–1000 CE has been obtained in three data assimilation–based reconstructions with a larger magnitude in the WAIS than elsewhere over Antarctica, in agreement with previous estimates with the larger changes than simulated in climate models. The reconstructions for atmospheric circulation indicate that the pattern of temperature changes over 501–1000 CE is related to the positive trend of Southern Annular Mode and a deepening of Amundsen Sea Low. This confirms the role of internal variability in the temperature trends on multi–centennial scales. • The Antarctic multi-centennial temperature trends over the first millennium are unlikely to be entirely forced by external forcings. • The spatial distribution of the temperature change is sensitive to selection of the records for the reconstructions, especially during 1–500 CE. • A cooling over Antarctica during 501–1000 CE is robust, and it is related to the positive trend of SAMand the deepening of ASL. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The examination of more than 1500 paleohydrological dated records collected between 10 and 28°N during the last 50 years have been used to improve our knowledge and understanding of the Sahara and Sahel vulnerability to the Atlantic monsoon changes in the long-term. We have analyzed the distribution of water bodies (mainly lakes and wetlands) over time and space: the central Saharan massifs played a major role in favoring water supply to the lowlands throughout the whole African Humid Period. In addition, distinct East–West dynamics is recorded with humidity starting – and stopping – several millennia earlier to the east than to the west of the Sahara. A series of time lags are discussed: (1) between the maximum of deep (fresh water) lake formation during the early Holocene and the maximum of water body extensions during the mid-Holocene which highlight the primary role of aquifer water level in lake response to climate change (2) between the hydrological history of the Sahara and the Sahel and the forcings – mainly insolation changes – during the early and mid-Holocene which involves complex interactions between remnant ice sheet in the Northern Hemisphere, open water bodies in the Sahara and Sahel and the Atlantic monsoon system. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The Asian monsoon is comprised of the Indian and East Asian subsystems. These two components are linked to one another in varying degrees by regions of strong sensible heating (Indo-Asian landmass) and strong latent heat export (the Western Pacific Warm Pool and the southern subtropical Indian Ocean). Variability within the Indian and East Asian subsystems, interactions among them, and the extent to which they interact with other climate phenomena (e.g., ENSO) are current topics of modern and paleoclimate research. This work provides an overview of past and current paleomonsoon research on tectonic to interannual time scales with a primary focus on marine sediment records. While past and current work has contributed greatly to our understanding of paleomonsoon variability at all time scales, additional efforts are required to make further progress in two critical areas. (1) Additional efforts are needed in terms of proxy development and evaluation, requiring concerted efforts at long-term sediment trap deployments in key monsoon-influenced regions as well as development of adequate and widely available core-top databases. These are necessary to assess the impact of modern oceanographic and seafloor processes on potential monsoon proxies. (2) Additional effort is also needed in acquiring a sufficient geographic distribution of downcore records to assess linkages among the subsystems and their role in the context of extratropical climate change. These records should have high sedimentation rates (including varved sections). This requires substantial survey support to identify the most appropriate coring and drilling targets. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]