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Analyzing the future changes in runoff is crucial for efficient water resources management and planning in arid regions with large river systems. This paper investigates the future runoffs of the headwaters of the Tarim River Basin under different emission scenarios by forcing the hydrological model SWAT-Glacier using six regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Results indicate that compared to the period of 1976~2005, temperatures are projected to increase by 1.22 ± 0.72 °C during 2036~2065 under RCP8.5 scenarios, with a larger increment in the south Tianshan mountains and a lower increment in the north Kunlun Mountains. Precipitation is expected to increase by 3.81 ± 14.72 mm and 20.53 ± 27.65 mm during 2036–2065 and 2066–2095, respectively, under the RCP8.5 scenario. The mountainous runoffs of the four headwaters that directly recharge the mainstream of the Tarim River demonstrate an overall increasing trend in the 21st century. Under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the runoff is projected to increase by 3.2% and 3.9% (amounting to 7.84 × 108 m3 and 9.56 × 108 m3) in 2006–2035. Among them, the runoff of the Kaidu River, which is dominated by rainfall and snowmelt, is projected to present slightly decreasing trends of 3~8% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. For catchments located in the north Kunlun Mountains (e.g., the Yarkant and Hotan Rivers which are mix-recharged by glacier melt, snowmelt, and rainfall), the runoff will increase significantly, especially in summer due to increased glacier melt and precipitation. Seasonally, the Kaidu River shows a forward shift in peak flow. The summer streamflow in the Yarkant and Hotan rivers is expected to increase significantly, which poses challenges in flood risk management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacier retreat is a common phenomenon in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) with global warming during the past several decades, except for several mountains, such as the glaciers in the Karakoram and the western Kunlun Mountains. The dynamic nature of glaciers significantly influences the hydrologic, geologic, and ecological systems in the mountain regions. The sensitivity and dynamic response to climate change make glaciers excellent indicators of regional and global climate change, such as glacier melting and retreat with the rise of local air temperature. Long-term monitoring of glacier change is important to understand and assess past, current, and possible future climate environments. Some glacier surfaces are safe and accessible by foot, and are monitored using mass balance stakes and snow pits. Meanwhile, some glaciers with inaccessible termini may be surveyed using satellite remote images and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). Those inaccessible glaciers are generally covered by debris in the southeast QTP, which is hardly accessible due to the wide distribution of crevasses and cliffs. In this paper, we used the UAV to monitor the dynamic features of mass balance and velocity of the debris-covered region of Baishui River Glacier No. 1 (BRG1) on the Yulong Snow Mountain (YSM), Southeast QTP. We obtained the Orthomosaic and DEM with a high resolution of 0.10 m on 20 May and 22 September 2018, respectively. The comparison showed that the elevation of the debris-covered region of the BRG1 decreased by 6.58 m ± 3.70 m on average, and the mean mass balance was −5.92 m w.e. ± 3.33 m w.e. during the summer, correspondingly. The mean displacement of debris-covered glacier surface was 18.30 m ± 6.27 m, that is, the mean daily velocity was 0.14 m/d ± 0.05 m/d during the summer. In addition, the UAV images not only revealed the different patterns of glacier melting and displacement but also captured the phenomena of mass loss due to ice avalanches at the glacier front and the development of large crevasses. This study provides a feasible method for understanding the dynamic features of global debris-covered glaciers which are inaccessible and unobservable by other means. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]