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The Tibetan Plateau (TP) vegetation plays an important role in the local ecosystem, which responds significantly to climate change and can affect local and large-scale weather and climate anomalies. However, little attention has been paid to its year-to-year variation. In this paper, using two NDVI datasets (GIMMS and MODIS) originated from satellite remote sensing, the variability characteristics of NDVI over the TP on the interannual time scale and associated local climatic factors were investigated. The results show that two primary patterns of NDVI governed TP during the main growing season (June–September, JJAS) for the period 1982–2020. The first one is a uniform pattern, with a consistent spatial variation over the entire TP, and the second is a dipole pattern, with an out-of-phase spatial variation of NDVI between the northern and southern TP. Interannual variations of the different climatic factors regulate the NDVI variability over the different regions of the TP. The interannual variability of the uniform NDVI pattern is mainly affected by the two local climatic factors, the preceding May–August precipitation and simultaneous JJAS sunshine duration. Specifically, NDVIs over the southern and eastern TP have a more significant response to the preceding precipitation and simultaneous sunshine duration, respectively. The variability of the dipole NDVI pattern is primarily modulated by the preceding May–August precipitation and simultaneous surface air temperature, ground surface temperature, and sunshine duration. However, NDVIs over the northern and southern TP have different degrees of response to the four climatic factors, with the most significant response being to preceding precipitation. The combined effect of these factors contributes to the formation of the interannual variability in the uniform and dipole patterns. This paper may shed light on deeply understanding the reasons for the inconsistency in variations of vegetation over the different regions of the TP under climate change. In addition to the effect of local climatic factors that this study focuses on, the influence of external climatic factors on the variability of the TP NDVI deserves further research in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) plays a crucial role in the climate change of China as well as global climate change. It is therefore of great practical significance to study vegetation and its dynamic changes for regional ecological protection. The combination of a dry climate and notable temperature disparities can lead to intricate effects on the region's vegetation. However, there are few studies exploring the complex effects of diurnal temperature variations on vegetation growth that differ from the effects of mean temperature on the TP, especially under different frozen ground types. Based on the long-time series maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of the TP, we conducted a comparative study of the warming effects on plant growth under different frozen types. The results exhibit that it warms up faster at night (0.223 °C de−1; p < 0.01) than during the day (0.06 °C de−1; p < 0.01), resulting in a significant decrease in the temperature difference between day and night (−0.078 °C de−1; p < 0.01) in the past few decades. The principal finding of this paper is that Tmin is the dominant temperature indicator for vegetation growth on the TP, which dominates 63.3% of the area for NDVI and 61.4% of the area for GPP, respectively. The results further identify a stronger correlation between air temperature and vegetation growth in seasonal frozen grounds (R = 0.68, p < 0.01) and permafrost regions (R = 0.7, p < 0.01) compared to unfrozen grounds (R = 0.58, p < 0.01). Moreover, the physiological mechanism underlying the asymmetric influence of Tmin and Tmax on vegetation growth is further elucidated in this study. Given that future climate changes are expected to exacerbate these changes, it is imperative to explore additional avenues in pursuit of potential mechanisms that can offer adaptive strategies for safeguarding the ecology of the TP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an important part of the Earth's environmental system, sandy soils are particularly sensitive to changes in the climatic environment. As one of the four major desert regions in China, the MuUs desert has transformed from a desert to an oasis after more than half a century of ecological management. In this paper, we analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and fraction vegetation cover in the MuUs desert based on the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) product with high spatial and temporal resolution and assessed the relationships between their variability and snow cover, air temperature, and precipitation. It is of great significance to understand the effect of desertification control and climate change after the conversion of land surface types in the MuUs region. The results show that the desertification control in the MuUs area has achieved remarkable results since 1982. The fraction vegetation coverage of the MuUs desert showed a significant increasing trend, with an interannual change rate of 1.32% each decade−1. The surface albedo of MuUs desert decreased significantly. Affected by vegetation and snow cover, it was lower in summer and higher in winter. The evapotranspiration showed a significant upward trend, higher in summer and lower in winter, which is significantly correlated with the changes in surface albedo, air temperature, and vegetation. In addition, the local-scale biophysical effects caused by vegetation change have influenced the climate of the MuUs region, manifested as the increase in precipitation and air temperature. In general, with the support of relevant policies and human construction projects, the overall ecological environment in the MuUs desert is developing in a good way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study demonstrates the successful use of the high sensitivity of L-band brightness temperatures to snow liquid water in the retrieval of snow liquid water from multi-angular L-band brightness temperatures. The emission model employed was developed from parts of the "microwave emission model of layered snowpacks" (MEMLS), coupled with components adopted from the "L-band microwave emission of the biosphere" (L-MEB) model. Two types of snow liquid water retrievals were performed based on L-band brightness temperatures measured over (i) areas with a metal reflector placed on the ground ("reflector area"-TB,R), and (ii) natural snow-covered ground ("natural area"-TB,N). The reliable representation of temporal variations of snow liquid water is demonstrated for both types of the aforementioned quasi-simultaneous retrievals. This is verified by the fact that both types of snow liquid water retrievals indicate a dry snowpack throughout the "cold winter period" with frozen ground and air temperatures well below freezing, and synchronously respond to snowpack moisture variations during the "early spring period". The robust and reliable performance of snow liquid water retrieved from TB,R, together with their level of detail, suggest the use of these retrievals as "references" to assess the meaningfulness of the snow liquid water retrievals based on TB,N. It is noteworthy that the latter retrievals are achieved in a two-step retrieval procedure using exclusively L-band brightness temperatures, without the need for in-situ measurements, such as ground permittivity εG and snow mass-density rS. The latter two are estimated in the first retrieval-step employing the well-established two-parameter (ρS, εG) retrieval scheme designed for dry snow conditions and explored in the companion paper that is included in this special issue in terms of its sensitivity with respect to disturbative melting effects. The two-step retrieval approach proposed and investigated here, opens up the possibility of using airborne or spaceborne L-band radiometry to estimate (ρS, εG) and additionally snow liquid water as a new passive L-band data product. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of the response of vegetation phenology in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau to various climatic variables is paramount to unveiling the reaction of alpine ecosystems to worldwide climate alterations. Nonetheless, the lagged and cumulative effects of various climatic variables on vegetation phenology in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau remain unclear. Therefore, based on MODIS NDVI data, we extracted vegetation phenological parameters from 2001 to 2020, including the start of the vegetation growing season (SOS) and the end of the vegetation growing season (EOS), and then analyzed the response mechanisms of vegetation phenology to pre-seasonal air temperature (T), precipitation (P), and daytime and nighttime land surface temperatures (DLST, NLST) in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau on the basis of an investigation of the lag and cumulative effects. The results showed that: (1) the multiyear mean values of the SOS mainly occurred from 120 to 160 days, accounting for 86.17% of the study area, while the multiyear mean values of the EOS were mainly concentrated between 260 and 280 days, accounting for 77.05% of the study area; (2) air temperature (T), precipitation (P), and daytime and nighttime land surface temperatures (DLST, NLST) had different degrees of lagging effects on the SOS and the EOS. Among them, the time lag effect of precipitation on vegetation phenology was more pronounced; (3) different climatic variables had distinct cumulative effects on vegetation phenology. In contrast to the insignificant cumulative effects of temperature and nighttime surface temperature on the SOS and the EOS, the cumulative effects of precipitation and daytime land surface temperature on the SOS were more pronounced than those on the EOS; (4) the SOS and air temperature, precipitation, and NLST were mainly negatively correlated, in which the proportion of the negative correlation between SOS and NLST was up to 68.80%, and SOS and DLST were mainly positively correlated with a positive correlation proportion of 73.27%, EOS and air temperature, precipitation, and NLST were positively correlated with a positive correlation proportion of EOS and precipitation of up to 71.52%, and EOS and DLST were mainly negatively correlated with a negative correlation ratio of 55.87%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate, seamless, and long-term land surface temperature (LST) data sets are crucial for investigating climate change and agriculture production. However, factors like cloud contamination have led to invalid values in the LST product, which has restricted the application of the LST dataset. Therefore, the reconstruction of LST products is challenging, and it is attracting widespread attention. This study compared the performance of different algorithms (XGBoost, GBDT, RF, POLY, MLR) and different training sets (using only good-quality pixels or using both good-quality and other-quality pixels) in the estimation of missing pixels in the LST data, obtaining a seamless daily 1 km LST dataset of MODIS Terra-day, Aqua-day, Terra-night, and Aqua-night data for Zhejiang Province and its surrounding areas from 2000 to 2022. The results demonstrated that the performance of machine-learning models is significantly better than that of linear models, and among the five models, XGBoost performed the best, with an RMSE of less than 1 °C. The Wilcoxon test between the reconstructed LST and the true LST values revealed that including both good-quality and other-quality pixels for reconstruction resulted in a 33% increase in the number of days with non-significant differences compared with using only good-quality pixels. Moreover, the reconstructed nighttime LST has a lower RMSE compared with the reconstructed daytime LST, and the RMSE of the reconstructed LST on the Terra satellite is lower than the RMSE of the reconstructed LST on the Aqua satellite. The RMSEs for the reconstructed LSTs are 0.50 °C, 0.61 °C, 0.36 °C, and 0.39 °C, corresponding to Terra-day, Aqua-day, Terra-night, and Aqua-night for images with coverage reaching 70%, 0.65 °C, 0.83 °C, 0.49 °C, respectively, and 0.52 °C for images with coverage less than 70%. The accuracy of the reconstructed LSTs using our proposed framework outperforms the existing reconstruction methods. The 1 km daily seamless LST products can be applied in various fields, such as air temperature estimation, climate change, urban heat island, and crop temperature stress monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil moisture over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) can affect hydrological cycles on local and remote scales through land–atmosphere interactions. However, TP long-term surface soil moisture characteristics and their response to climate change are still unclear. In this study, we firstly evaluate two satellite-based products—SSM/I (the Special Sensor Microwave Imagers) and ECV COMBINED (the Essential Climate Variable combined)—and three reanalysis products—ERA5-Land (the fifth generation of the land component of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis), MERRA2 (the second version of Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications), and GLDAS Noah (the Noah land surface model driven by Global Land Data Assimilation System)—against two in situ observation networks. SSM/I and GLDAS Noah outperform the other soil moisture products, followed by MERRA2 and ECV COMBINED, and ERA5-Land has a certain degree of uncertainty in evaluating TP surface soil moisture. Analysis of long-term soil moisture characteristics during 1988–2008 shows that annual and seasonal mean soil moisture have similar spatial distributions of soil moisture decreasing from southeast to northwest. Additionally, a significant increasing trend of soil moisture is found in most of the TP region. With a non-linear machine learning method, we quantify the contribution of each climatic variable to warm-season soil moisture. It indicates that precipitation dominates soil moisture changes rather than air temperature. Pixel-wise partial correlation coefficients further show that there are significant positive correlations between precipitation and soil moisture over most of the TP region. The results of this study will help to understand the role of TP soil moisture in land–atmosphere coupling and hydrological cycles under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of previous studies have contributed to a better understanding of the thermal impacts of dam-related reservoirs on stream temperature, but very few studies have focused on air temperature, especially at the catchment scale. In addition, due to the lack of quantitative analysis, the identification of the effects of water impoundment on regional air temperature is still lacking. We investigated the impacts of reservoirs on the regional air temperature changes before and after two large dam constructions in the lower Jinsha River located in southwest China, by using a 40 year record of reanalysis data at 90 m resolutions. Furthermore, the long short-term memory (LSTM) model was also employed to construct an impoundment effect on the temperature (IET) index. Research results indicate that compared to the pre-impoundment period (1980–2012), the variations in the air temperature at the catchment scale were reduced during the post-impoundment period (2013–2019). The annual maximum air temperature decreased by 0.4 °C relative to the natural regimes. In contrast, the cumulative effects of dam-related reservoirs increased the annual mean and minimum air temperature by 0.1 °C and 1.0 °C, respectively. Warming effects prevailed during the dry season and in the regions with high elevations, while cooling effects dominated within a 4 km buffer of the reservoirs. Therefore, this study offers important insights about the impacts of anthropogenic impoundments on air temperature changes, which could be useful for policymakers to have a more informed and profound understanding of local climate changes in dammed areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional climate change affects the state of inland water bodies and their water balance, which is determined by a number of hydrometeorological and hydrogeological factors. An integral characteristic of changes in the water balance is the behavior of the level of lakes and reservoirs, which not only largely determines the physical and ecological state of water bodies, but also significantly affects the coastal infrastructure and socio-economic development of the region. This paper investigates the interannual variability of the level of the Ladoga and Onega lakes, the largest lakes in Europe located in the northwest of Russia, according to satellite altimetry data for 1993–2020. For this purpose, we used three specialized altimetry databases: DAHITI, G-REALM, and HYDROWEB. Water level data from these altimetry databases were compared with in-situ records at water level gauge stations. Information on air temperature (1945–2019) and precipitation (1966–2019) acquired at three meteostations located at Ladoga and Onega lakes was used to investigate interannual trends in the regional climate change. Finally, we discuss the potential impact of the lake level rise and regional climate warming on the infrastructure and operability of railways in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite-derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) dynamics have been increasingly used to study various geophysical processes. This review provides an extensive overview of the applications of LST in the context of global change. By filtering a selection of relevant keywords, a total of 164 articles from 14 international journals published during the last two decades were analyzed based on study location, research topic, applied sensor, spatio-temporal resolution and scale and employed analysis methods. It was revealed that China and the USA were the most studied countries and those that had the most first author affiliations. The most prominent research topic was the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI), while the research topics related to climate change were underrepresented. MODIS was by far the most used sensor system, followed by Landsat. A relatively small number of studies analyzed LST dynamics on a global or continental scale. The extensive use of MODIS highly determined the study periods: A majority of the studies started around the year 2000 and thus had a study period shorter than 25 years. The following suggestions were made to increase the utilization of LST time series in climate research: The prolongation of the time series by, e.g., using AVHRR LST, the better representation of LST under clouds, the comparison of LST to traditional climate change measures, such as air temperature and reanalysis variables, and the extension of the validation to heterogenous sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil freeze–thaw processes are remarkable features of the land surface across the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Soil moisture and temperature fluctuate during the freeze–thaw cycle, affecting the soil water and energy exchange between the land and atmosphere. This study investigates variations in the soil temperature, humidity, and freeze–thaw state and their responses to air temperature and precipitation on the TP from 1981 to 2016. Regional simulations of the TP using Community Land Model version 4.5 demonstrate that the climate of the TP has become warmer and wetter over the past 37 years, with increases in both regional average temperature and precipitation. Using empirical orthogonal function analysis and the Mann–Kendall trend test of air temperature, we show that 1980–1998 was relatively cold, and 1999–2016 was relatively warm. Soil temperature and moisture in most areas of the TP were affected by air temperature and precipitation, and both showed an upward trend during the past 37 years. Overall, from 1981 to 2016, the freezing date of the TP has become delayed, the thawing date has been hastened, and the duration of the freeze–thaw state has shortened. The surface soil freezes and thaws first, and these processes pervade deeper soil with the passage of time; freeze–thaw processes have an obvious hysteresis. Precipitation and air temperature had marked effects on the freeze–thaw processes. Higher air temperatures delay the freezing date, hasten the thawing date, and shorten the freeze–thaw period. Areas with the highest precipitation saw late soil freeze, early thaw, and the shortest freeze–thaw duration. Areas with less vegetation froze earlier and thawed later. The freeze–thaw duration increased in the northwest of the plateau and decreased on the rest of the plateau. This article informs research on frozen soil change in the context of global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation phenology is a sensitive indicator of climate change, and can help understand the response of vegetation cycles to climate, which is important for understanding the impact of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, based on the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) time-series data, derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, the climate parameters were extracted using the Savitzky–Golay (S–G) filtering method to explore the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the vegetation phenology in an agro-pasture ecotone in China, from 2000 to 2020. In addition, the response characteristics of the vegetation phenology to the climate elements (temperature and precipitation) were also analyzed. The results showed the following: (1) The start of the growing season (SOS) was widely advanced, and that was caused by climate change. The end of the growing season (EOS) was delayed, and the length of the growing season (LOS) was gradually extended with a large interannual fluctuation in the SOS and the LOS in the region; (2) the SOS showed significant negative correlations with the air temperature and precipitation. Precipitation was mainly positively correlated with the EOS, but there was no significant difference in the correlation between temperature and the EOS. In general, pre-season precipitation is the main driver of the vegetation phenology, while the influence of temperature on the phenology is less obvious; (3) in the semi-arid area and arid area, the phenology was mainly influenced by precipitation. The response of the vegetation phenology to the temperatures in different temperature zones was found to be regular, showing high spatial differences. In general, the higher the cumulus temperature, the lower the negative effect of the temperature on both the SOS and EOS. These results may provide new reference to study the non-systematic changes of the vegetation phenology in response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-resolution gridded 2 m air temperature datasets are important input data for global and regional climate change studies, agrohydrologic model simulations and numerical weather predictions, etc. In this study, the digital elevation model (DEM) is used to correct temperature forecasts produced by ECMWF. The multi-grid variation formulation method is then used to fuse the data from corrected temperature forecasts and ground automatic station observations. The fused dataset covers the area over (0–60°N, 70–140°S), where different underlying surfaces exist, such as plains, basins, plateaus, and mountains. The spatial and temporal resolutions are 1 km and 1 h, respectively. The comparison of the fusion data with the verification observations, including 2400 weather stations, indicates that the accuracy of the gridded temperature is superior to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data. This is because a more significant number of stations and high-resolution terrain data are used to generate the fusion data than are utilized in the ECMWF. The obtained dataset can describe the temperature feature of peaks and valleys more precisely. Due to its continuous temporal coverage and consistent quality, the fusion dataset is one of China's most widely used temperature datasets. However, data uncertainty will increase for areas with sparse observations and high mountains, and we must be cautious when using data from these areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objectives were (i) to evaluate the relationship between recent climate change and extreme hydrological events and (ii) to characterize the behavior of hydrological events along the Alazeya River. The warming rate of air temperature observed at the meteorological station in Chersky was 0.0472 °C.year-1, and an extraordinary increase in air temperatures was observed in 2007. However, data from meteorological stations are somewhat limited in sparsely populated regions. Therefore, this study employed historical remote sensing data for supplementary information. The time-series analysis of the area-averaged Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation showed a positive trend because warming leads to an increase in the water vapor content in the atmosphere. In particular, heavy precipitation of 459 ± 113 mm was observed in 2006. On the other hand, the second-highest summer National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution radiometer (AVHRR) brightness temperature (BT) was observed in 2007 when the highest air temperature was observed in Chersky, and the anomaly from normal revealed that the summer AVHRR BTs showed mostly positive values. Conversely, riverbank, lakeshore and seashore areas were much cooler due to the formation, expansion and drainage of lakes and/or the increase in water level by heavy precipitation and melting of frozen ground. The large lake drainage resulted in a flood. Although the flooding was triggered by the thermal erosion along the riverbanks and lakeshores--itself induced by the heat wave in 2007--the increase in soil water content due to the heavy precipitation in 2006 appeared to contribute the magnitude of flood. The flood was characterized by the low streamflow velocity because the Kolyma Lowlands had a very gentle gradient. Therefore, the flood continued for a long time over large areas. Information based on remote sensing data gave basic insights for understanding the mechanism and behavior of climate-induced extreme hydrologic events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigating the attributions of evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP) changes is of great importance for regional, sustainable water resources and ecological management in semi-arid regions. Based on the simulation conducted during 2000–2019 by improving water-carbon coupling Distributed Time Variant Gain Model, the trends of ET and GPP were estimated and the driving factors were identified via 10 experimental scenarios in the water source area of the Xiong'an New Area in North China. The results show significant increases both in ET and GPP by 2.4 mm/a and 6.0 gC/m2/a in the region, respectively. At the annual scale, increasing precipitation dominates the ET uptrend. Air temperature, humidity and the interactive effects also contribute to the ET uptrend, and the contributions are 12.8%, 2.0% and 2.3%, respectively, while elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2) and solar dimming lead to ET changes of about −7.2% and −12.4%, respectively. For the GPP changes, the increase in GPP is mainly caused by eCO2, increasing precipitation and rising temperature with the contributions of 56.7%, 34.8% and 27.8%, respectively. Solar dimming, humidity and windspeed contribute −6.8%, −4.8% and −3.5% of the GPP changes. Compared to climate change, land use and cover change has smaller effects on both ET and GPP for the few changes in land coverage. At the seasonal scale, ET and GPP increase to a greater extent during the growing season in spring and summer than in autumn and winter. Precipitation, temperature and eCO2 are generally the main causes for ET and GPP changes. Meanwhile, the decreasing humidity and rising temperature are dominant factors for ET and GPP increases, respectively, in winter. Furthermore, solar dimming has strong effects on ET reduction in autumn. The contribution of the interactive effects is much higher on a seasonal scale than annual scale, contributing to considerable decreases in ET and GPP in spring, increases in ET in autumn and winter, and an increase in GPP in winter. This study highlights the importance of considering water-carbon coupling on the attributions of ET and GPP changes and the differentiation of the effects by the abovementioned influential factors at annual and seasonal scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dome A is the summit of the Antarctic plateau, where the Chinese Kunlun inland station is located. Due to its unique location and high altitude, Dome A provides an important observatory site in analyzing global climate change. However, before the arrival of the Chinese Antarctic expedition in 2005, near-surface air temperatures had not been recorded in the region. In this study, we used meteorological parameters, such as ice surface temperature, radiation, wind speed, and cloud type, to build a reliable model for air temperature estimation. Three models (linear regression, random forest, and deep neural network) were developed based on various input datasets: seasonal factors, skin temperature, shortwave radiation, cloud type, longwave radiation from AVHRR-X products, and wind speed from MERRA-2 reanalysis data. In situ air temperatures from 2010 to 2015 were used for training, while 2005–2009 and 2016–2020 measurements were used for model validation. The results showed that random forest and deep neural network outperformed the linear regression model. In both methods, the 2005–2009 estimates (average bias = 0.86 °C and 1 °C) were more accurate than the 2016–2020 values (average bias = 1.04 °C and 1.26 °C). We conclude that the air temperature at Dome A can be accurately estimated (with an average bias less than 1.3 °C and RMSE around 3 °C) from meteorological parameters using random forest or a deep neural network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seasonal and regional variability of Arctic sea ice area (SIA) and thickness (SIT) were investigated between 1979 and 2020 for the Atlantic sector (AS), Pacific sector (PS) and Barents–Kara Seas (BKSs). We applied the SIA data from remote sensing observations and SIT data from numerical model calculations. We found the large summer variability of SIA and SIT in AS and PS compared with those in winter. The opposite feature was seen in the BKSs. The annual declining rates of SIA and SIT were the largest in PS (−1.73 × 104 km2 yr−1) and AS (−3.36 × 10−2 m yr−1), respectively. The SIA variability was modest for winter PS and the northern Canadian Arctic Archipelago of AS. The annual and winter SIA flux from PS to AS gradually increased in 1979–2020; the summer SIA flux accounted for 11% of the PS summer SIA decline. The annual and seasonal SIA outflow through the Fram Strait during 1979–2020 steadily increased while for annual and winter SIA export, the increase mainly occurred in 1979–2000; the summer SIA outflow was only 1.45% equivalent to the decrease in the entire Arctic summer SIA. We concluded that sea ice export was not a major impact factor on the seasonal and regional decline of SIA and SIT except for the individual years. The near surface air temperature (SAT) and sea surface temperature (SST) were responsible for the retreat and thinning of the sea ice. The dramatic increase in SAT in winter resulted in a strong decrease in winter sea ice in BKS. The outgoing longwave radiation had significant negative correlations with SIA and SIT and positive correlations with SAT and SST. The Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation, related to the North Atlantic Ocean's SST anomalies, had significant negative correlations with SIA and SIT. The SIT had higher correlations with the atmospheric and oceanic factors compared with SIA, which indicates that SIT is important for predictions of Arctic sea ice and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) is sensitive to climate change. Previous studies have found that LSWT warming is occurring on a global scale and is expected to continue in the future. Recently, new global LSWT data products have been generated using satellite remote sensing, which provides an inimitable opportunity to study the LSWT response to global warming. Based on the satellite observations, we found that the warming rate of global lakes is uneven, with apparent regional differences. Indeed, comparing the LSWT warming in different climate zones (from arid to humid), the lakes in drylands experienced more significant warming (0.28 °C decade−1) than those in semi-humid and humid regions (0.19 °C decade−1) during previous decades (1995–2016). By further quantifying the impact factors, it showed that the LSWT warming is attributed to air temperature (74.4%), evaporation (4.1%), wind (9.9%), cloudiness (4.3%), net shortwave (3.1%), and net longwave (4.0%) over the lake surface. Air temperature is the main driving force for the warming of most global lakes, so the first estimate quantification of future LSWT trends can be determined from air temperature projections. By the end of the 21st century, the summer air temperature would warm up to 1.0 °C (SSP1-2.6) and 6.3 °C (SSP5-8.5) over lakes, with a more significant warming trend over the dryland lakes. Combined with their higher warming sensitivity, the excess summer LSWT warming in drylands is expected to continue, which is of great significance because of their high relevance in these water-limited regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Alps, understanding how climate change is affecting evapotranspiration (ET) is relevant due to possible implications on water availability for large lowland areas of Europe. Here, changes in ET were studied based on 20 years of MODIS data. MOD16 and operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) products were compared with eddy-covariance data and analyzed for trend detection. The two products showed a similar relationship with ground observations, with RMSE between 0.69 and 2 mm day−1, and a correlation coefficient between 0.6 and 0.83. A regression with the potential drivers of ET showed that, for climate variables, ground data were coherent with MOD16 at grassland sites, where r2 was 0.12 for potential ET, 0.17 for precipitation, and 0.57 for air temperature, whereas ground data agreed with SSEBop at forest sites, with an r2 of 0.46 for precipitation, no correlation with temperature, and negative correlation with potential ET. Interestingly, ground-based correlation corresponded to SSEBop for leaf area index (LAI), while it matched with MOD16 for land surface temperature (LST). Through the trend analysis, both MOD16 and SSEBop revealed positive trends in the south-west, and negative trends in the south and north-east. Moreover, in summer, positive trends prevailed at high elevations for grasslands and forests, while negative trends dominated at low elevations for croplands and grasslands. However, the Alpine area share with positive ET trends was 16.6% for MOD16 and 3.9% for SSEBop, while the share with negative trends was 1.2% for MOD16 and 15.3% for SSEBop. A regression between trends in ET and in climate variables, LST, and LAI indicated consistency, especially between ET, temperature, and LAI increase, but low correlation. Overall, the discrepancies in the trends, and the fact that none of the two products outperformed the other when compared to ground data, suggest that, in the Alps, SSEBop and MOD16 might not be accurate enough to be a robust basis to study ET changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant phenology depends largely on temperature, but temperature alone cannot explain the Northern Hemisphere shifts in the start of the growing season (SOS). The spatio–temporal distribution of SOS sensitivity to climate variability has also changed in recent years. We applied the partial least squares regression (PLSR) method to construct a standardized SOS sensitivity evaluation index and analyzed the combined effects of air temperature (Tem), water balance (Wbi), radiation (Srad), and previous year's phenology on SOS. The spatial and temporal distributions of SOS sensitivity to Northern Hemisphere climate change from 1982 to 2014 were analyzed using time windows of 33 and 15 years; the dominant biological and environmental drivers were also assessed. The results showed that the combined sensitivity of SOS to climate change (SCom) is most influenced by preseason temperature sensitivity. However, because of the asymmetric response of SOS to daytime/night temperature (Tmax/Tmin) and non-negligible moderating of Wbi and Srad on SOS, SCom was more effective in expressing the effect of climate change on SOS than any single climatic factor. Vegetation cover (or type) was the dominant factor influencing the spatial pattern of SOS sensitivity, followed by spring temperature (Tmin > Tmax), and the weakest was water balance. Forests had the highest SCom absolute values. A significant decrease in the sensitivity of some vegetation (22.2%) led to a decreasing trend in sensitivity in the Northern Hemisphere. Although temperature remains the main climatic factor driving temporal changes in SCom, the temperature effects were asymmetric between spring and winter (Tems/Temw). More moisture might mitigate the asymmetric response of SCom to spring/winter warming. Vegetation adaptation has a greater influence on the temporal variability of SOS sensitivity relative to each climatic factor (Tems, Temw, Wbi, Srad). More moisture might mitigate the asymmetric response of SCom to spring/winter warming. This study provides a basis for vegetation phenology sensitivity assessment and prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire is one of the most widespread and destructive disasters, which causes property losses, casualties, and disruption of the balance of ecosystems. Therefore, it is highly necessary for firefighting to study the variations in fire and its climatic attributions. This study analyzed the characteristics of fire-burned area (BA) and its response to climatic factors in seven subregions of China from 2001 to 2018 using satellite remote sensing BA products. The results show that the BA in China and most of its subregions shows a decreasing trend. In general, it is negatively correlated with precipitation and positively correlated with air temperature and wind speed based on the regression and correlation analyses. Based on Pearson correlation and random forest methods, it is also found that the temperature is commonly an important factor contributing to BA in China, except for R2 (Inner Mongolia region), where wind speed is more important, and R5 (South China), where precipitation is more important, which coexists at annual and seasonal scales. Besides temperature, precipitation in spring and summer is the main driving factor, such as in R1 (Northeast China), R5, R6 (Northwest China) and R7 (Qinghai–Tibet Plateau) in spring and R4 (Central China), R5 and R7 in summer; and wind speed in autumn and winter is the main driving factor, such as in R2 and R4 in autumn and R2, R3, R5, R6 and R7 in winter. Finally, the distributions of BA with respect to each climatic factor were also analyzed to quantify the range of climatic factors with maximum BA occurrence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mapping of near-surface air temperature (Ta) at high spatio-temporal resolution is essential for unbiased assessment of human health exposure to temperature extremes, not least given the observed trend of urbanization and global climate change. Data constraints have led previous studies to focus merely on daily Ta metrics, rather than hourly ones, making them insufficient for intra-day assessment of health exposure. In this study, we present a three-stage machine learning-based ensemble model to estimate hourly Ta at a high spatial resolution of 1 × 1 km2, incorporating remotely sensed surface skin temperature (Ts) from geostationary satellites, reanalysis synoptic variables, and observations from weather stations, as well as auxiliary geospatial variables, which account for spatio-temporal variability of Ta. The Stage 1 model gap-fills hourly Ts at 4 × 4 km2 from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI), which are subsequently fed into the Stage 2 model to estimate hourly Ta at the same spatio-temporal resolution. The Stage 3 model downscales the residuals between estimated and measured Ta to a grid of 1 × 1 km2, taking into account additionally the monthly diurnal pattern of Ts derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. In each stage, the ensemble model synergizes estimates from the constituent base learners—random forest (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)—by applying a geographically weighted generalized additive model (GAM), which allows the weights of results from individual models to vary over space and time. Demonstrated for Israel for the period 2004–2017, the proposed ensemble model outperformed each of the two base learners. It also attained excellent five-fold cross-validated performance, with overall root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.8 and 0.9 °C, mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.6 and 0.7 °C, and R2 of 0.95 and 0.98 in Stage 1 and Stage 2, respectively. The Stage 3 model for downscaling Ta residuals to 1 km MODIS grids achieved overall RMSE of 0.3 °C, MAE of 0.5 °C, and R2 of 0.63. The generated hourly 1 × 1 km2 Ta thus serves as a foundation for monitoring and assessing human health exposure to temperature extremes at a larger geographical scale, helping to further minimize exposure misclassification in epidemiological studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change regular scientific assessments of global warming is based on measurements of air temperature from weather stations, buoys or ships. More specifically, air temperature annual means are estimated from their integration into climate models, with some areas (Africa, Antarctica, seas) being clearly underrepresented. Present satellites allow estimation of surface temperature for a full coverage of our planet with a sub-daily revisit frequency and kilometric resolution. In this work, a simple methodology is developed that allows estimating the surface temperature of Planet Earth with MODIS Terra and Aqua land and sea surface temperature products, as if the whole planet was reduced to a single pixel. The results, through a completely independent methodology, corroborate the temperature anomalies retrieved from climate models and show a linear warming trend of 0.018 ± 0.007 °C/yr. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR) is a major source of rivers, catchment areas, and ecological barriers in the northeast of China, related to the nation’s ecological security and improvement of the ecological environment. Therefore, studying the response of vegetation to climate change has become an important part of current global change research. Since existing studies lack detailed descriptions of the response of vegetation to different climatic factors using the method of grey correlation analysis based on pixel, the temporal and spatial patterns and trends of enhanced vegetation index (EVI) are analyzed in the growing season in IMAR from 2000 to 2015 based on moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) EVI data. Combined with the data of air temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation in the study area, the grey relational analysis (GRA) method is used to study the time lag of EVI to climate change, and the study area is finally zoned into different parts according to the driving climatic factors for EVI on the basis of lag analysis. The driving zones quantitatively show the characteristics of temporal and spatial differences in response to different climatic factors for EVI. The results show that: (1) The value of EVI generally features in spatial distribution, increasing from the west to the east and the south to the north. The rate of change is 0.22/10°E from the west to the east, 0.28/10°N from the south to the north; (2) During 2000–2015, the EVI in IMAR showed a slightly upward trend with a growth rate of 0.021/10a. Among them, the areas with slight and significant improvement accounted for 21.1% and 7.5% of the total area respectively, ones with slight and significant degradation being 24.6% and 4.3%; (3) The time lag analysis of climatic factors for EVI indicates that vegetation growth in the study area lags behind air temperature by 1–2 months, relative humidity by 1–2 months, and precipitation by one month respectively; (4) During the growing season, the EVI of precipitation driving zone (21.8%) in IMAR is much larger than that in the air temperature driving zone (8%) and the relative humidity driving zone (11.6%). The growth of vegetation in IMAR generally has the closest relationship with precipitation. The growth of vegetation does not depend on the change of a single climatic factor. Instead, it is the result of the combined action of multiple climatic factors and human activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]