Search

Underground coal-mining-induced ground subsidence deformation is a common geological disaster impacting buildings, transportation and water supplies. Models predicting ground subsidence dynamically with high precision are important for the prevention of damage derived from ground subsidence. In this paper, the Hook function is utilized to develop a model describing the velocity of ground subsidence due to underground coal mining. Based on the subsidence velocity model, a dynamic subsidence model is established by taking an integral of the velocity model. Coefficients of the model, which depend on maximum subsidence, maximum subsidence velocity and the time corresponding to the maximum subsidence velocity, are related to the geological and mining conditions of the coal seam being investigated. A Levenberg–Marquardt-algorithm-based method is also proposed to calculate the optimal model coefficients based on subsidence velocity observations. Four continuously operating Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations were constructed above a typical longwall coal mining working face in the Jining mining area, China. These GNSS stations collected subsidence observations over two years, which were used to validate the developed prediction model. The results show that the root-mean-square (RMS) of the model-predicted ground subsidence error is 56.1 mm, and the maximum relative error is 2.5% for all four GNSS stations, when the ground subsidence is less than 6000 mm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a major grain-producing region in China, the North China Plain (NCP) faces serious challenges such as water shortage and land subsidence. In late 2014, the Central Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWD-C) began to provide NCP with water resources. However, the effectiveness of this supply in mitigating land subsidence remains a pivotal and yet unassessed aspect. In this paper, we utilized various geodetic datasets, including the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow On (GRACE-FO), Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and leveling data, to conduct a spatial-temporal analysis of the equivalent water height (EWH) and vertical ground movement in the NCP. The results reveal a noteworthy decline in EWH from 2011 to 2015, followed by a slight increase with minor fluctuations from 2015 to 2020, demonstrating a strong correlation with the water resources supplied by the SNWD-C. The GRACE-derived surface deformation rate induced by hydrological loading is estimated to be <1 mm/yr. In comparison, GNSS-derived vertical ground movements exhibit considerable regional differences during the 2011–2020 period. Substantial surface subsidence is evident in the central and eastern NCP, contrasting with a gradual uplift in the front plain of the Taihang Mountains. Three-stage leveling results indicate that the rate of subsidence in the central and eastern plains is gradually increasing with the depression area expanding from 1960 to 2010. Based on these geodetic results, it can be inferred that the SNWD-C's operation since 2014 has effectively mitigated the reduction in terrestrial water storage in the NCP. However, land subsidence in the NCP persists, as the subsidence rate does not turn around in sync with the change in EWH following the operation of SNWD-C. Consequently, it's necessary to maintain and enforce existing policies, including controlling groundwater exploitation and water resources supply (e.g., SNWD-C) to curtail the exacerbation of land subsidence in the NCP. Additionally, continuous monitoring of land subsidence by GRACE, GNSS, leveling and other geodetic techniques is crucial to enable timely policy adjustments based on monitoring results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]