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Landslides along the Three Gorges Reservoir in China pose a threat to coastal residents and waterway safety. To reduce false positive misjudgments caused by a sudden local change in the landslide deformation curve, in this paper, we propose an effective method for predicting the deformation trend of reservoir bank landslides. We take reservoir bank landslides in the Wanzhou District of the Three Gorges Reservoir area as the research object. The Time-Series Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) method and 62 Sentinel-1A images from 2018 to 2022 were selected for landslide deformation monitoring, and the Hurst index was calculated to characterize the deformation trend. Furthermore, we propose a method for predicting the deformation trend based on the statistical distribution of deformation rates and the physical significance of the Hurst index. After the field survey and Global Positioning System (GPS) verification, the Time-Series InSAR results are shown to be reliable. We take the Sifangbei landslide as a representative case to analyze the validation results. It is found that the determined Sifangbei landslide deformation trend is consistent with the conclusions for the region. In addition, the deformation trend of a reservoir bank slope has obvious spatial and temporal differences. Changes in the reservoir water level and concentrated rainfall play roles similar to those of catalysts. The proposed method, involving the combination of Time-Series InSAR and the Hurst index, can effectively monitor deformation and predict the stability trend of reservoir bank landslides. The presented research results provide new ideas and solutions for landslide prevention and risk mitigation in reservoir areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapid development of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) measurement technology, its measurement accuracy requirements are increasing. Atmospheric delay errors must be corrected, especially in the case of crustal deformation monitoring, the 20% variation of tropospheric water vapor among InSAR pairs generally produces range from 10 cm to 14 cm deformation errors. Such errors can be of the same magnitude as the annual changes in crustal deformation, or even greater, masking crustal deformation information and seriously affecting the results of crustal deformation monitoring. Therefore, in order to obtain a more accurate InSAR atmospheric delay correction model, this paper calculated and integrated atmospheric delays that were estimated by different sources, including the 37 pressure levels of the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)) numerical weather prediction model, ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurement data from the crustal movement observation network of China, based on the variance component estimation (VCE) weighting method. The results showed that the integrated model, based on the VCE method, is better than the generic atmospheric correction online service (GACOS) model for InSAR measuring of crustal deformation. The precision in monitoring crustal deformations was improved by approximately 5 mm, the correlation coefficient of atmospheric delay errors and crustal deformations improved from 0.287 to 0.347, and accuracy improved by approximately 25%. However, the improvement in accuracy was limited because of system error decoherence that was induced by atmospheric noise caused by abundant vegetation or snow cover. Therefore, in order to achieve more accurate results, we recommend the adoption of the multi-source integrated atmospheric delay correction model, based on the VCE method, for InSAR high-precision measuring of crustal deformation and seismic activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]