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The cultivation of Chinese cabbage is a crucial source of daily vegetable supply for both human consumption and livestock feed, particularly in East Asian countries. However, changes in global climate and land usage have resulted in significant shifts in the ecological conditions suitable for Chinese cabbage production, thereby threatening its productivity. To address this issue, this study was conducted to map the bio-geophysical suitability of Chinese cabbage in East Asia (Japan, Northeast China, South Korea, and North Korea) from 2001 to 2020. This study integrated six key factors—temperature, rainfall, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), soil nitrogen, soil pH, and soil texture—into a seasonal and monthly bio-geophysical suitability assessment using a GIS-based Analytic Hierarchy Process–Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making Analysis (AHP-MCDA). The levels of bio-geophysical suitability were categorized into four levels: optimal, suitable, marginal, and unsuitable. The findings of the study firstly indicate that summer is the optimal season for Chinese cabbage cultivation, as it was found to have the highest level of optimal suitability among the four seasons in East Asia. South Korea has the largest percentage of optimal and suitable areas compared to the other three countries. Secondly, this study also conducted a comparison analysis between bio-geophysical suitability and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) over 20 years, and the results show good consistency between the two indicators, with the highest R2 value being 0.61. Thirdly, the comparison between bio-geophysical suitability and production data in two villages in Japan demonstrates that an increase in suitability from 0.28 to 0.32 indicates a significant increase in production. Production would stay stable even with further increases in suitability. Finally, two case studies with monthly comparisons of bio-geophysical suitability across Japan and East Asia in 2020 provide an effective benchmark for determining optimal sowing and harvest times. This study's results can provide important insights into the trade of Chinese cabbage and support the development of agricultural insurance programs both for farmers and insurance companies. Furthermore, this approach may also be applicable for the assessment of the suitability of other crops. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lodging is one of the typical abiotic adversities during paddy rice growth. In addition to affecting photosynthesis, it can seriously damage crop growth and development, such as reducing rice quality and hindering automated harvesting. It is, therefore, imperative to accurately and in good time acquire crop-lodging areas for yield prediction, agricultural insurance claims, and disaster-management decisions. However, the accuracy requirements for crop-lodging monitoring remain challenging due to complicated impact factors. Aiming at identifying paddy rice lodging on Shazai Island, Guangdong, China, caused by heavy rainfall and strong wind, a decision-tree model was constructed using multiple-parameter information from Sentinel-1 SAR images and the in situ lodging samples. The model innovatively combined the five backscattering coefficients with five polarization decomposition parameters and quantified the importance of each parameter feature. It was found that the decision-tree method coupled with polarization decomposition can be used to obtain an accurate distribution of paddy rice-lodging areas. The results showed that: (1) Radar parameters can capture the changes in lodged paddy rice. The radar parameters that best distinguish paddy rice lodging are VV, VV+VH, VH/VV, and Span. (2) Span is the parameter with the strongest feature importance, which shows the necessity of adding polarization parameters to the classification model. (3) The dual-polarized Sentinel-1 database classification model can effectively extract the area of lodging paddy rice with an overall accuracy of 84.38%, and a total area precision of 93.18%. These observations can guide the future use of SAR-based information for crop-lodging assessment and post-disaster management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The timely and accurate detection of wheat lodging at a large scale is necessary for loss assessments in agricultural insurance claims. Most existing deep-learning-based methods of wheat lodging detection use data from unmanned aerial vehicles, rendering monitoring wheat lodging at a large scale difficult. Meanwhile, the edge feature is not accurately extracted. In this study, a semantic segmentation network model called the pyramid transposed convolution network (PTCNet) was proposed for large-scale wheat lodging extraction and detection using GaoFen-2 satellite images with high spatial resolutions. Multi-scale high-level features were combined with low-level features to improve the segmentation's accuracy and to enhance the extraction sensitivity of wheat lodging areas in the proposed model. In addition, four types of vegetation indices and three types of edge features were added into the network and compared to the increment in the segmentation's accuracy. The F1 score and the intersection over union of wheat lodging extraction reached 85.31% and 74.38% by PTCNet, respectively, outperforming other compared benchmarks, i.e., SegNet, PSPNet, FPN, and DeepLabv3+ networks. PTCNet can achieve accurate and large-scale extraction of wheat lodging, which is significant in the fields of loss assessment and agricultural insurance claims. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction of winter wheat yields is crucial for farmers and decision-makers to reduce yield losses and ensure food security. Recently, numerous researchers have utilized machine learning (ML) methods to predict crop yield, using observational climate variables and satellite data. Meanwhile, some studies also illustrated the potential of state-of-the-art dynamical atmospheric prediction in crop yield forecasting. However, the potential of coupling both methods has not been fully explored. Herein, we aimed to establish a skilled ML–dynamical hybrid model for crop yield forecasting (MHCF v1.0), which hybridizes ML and a global dynamical atmospheric prediction system, and applied it to northern China at the S2S time scale. In this study, we adopted three mainstream machining learning algorithms (XGBoost, RF, and SVR) and the multiple linear regression (MLR) model, and three major datasets, including satellite data from MOD13C1, observational climate data from CRU, and S2S atmospheric prediction data from IAP CAS, used to predict winter wheat yield from 2005 to 2014, at the grid level. We found that, among the four models examined in this work, XGBoost reached the highest skill with the S2S prediction as inputs, scoring R2 of 0.85 and RMSE of 0.78 t/ha 3–4 months, leading the winter wheat harvest. Moreover, the results demonstrated that crop yield forecasting with S2S dynamical predictions generally outperforms that with observational climate data. Our findings highlighted that the coupling of ML and S2S dynamical atmospheric prediction provided a useful tool for yield forecasting, which could guide agricultural practices, policy-making and agricultural insurance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]