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Reliable and timely crop-yield prediction and crop mapping are crucial for food security and decision making in the food industry and in agro-environmental management. The global coverage, rich spectral and spatial information and repetitive nature of remote sensing (RS) data have made them effective tools for mapping crop extent and predicting yield before harvesting. Advanced machine-learning methods, particularly deep learning (DL), can accurately represent the complex features essential for crop mapping and yield predictions by accounting for the nonlinear relationships between variables. The DL algorithm has attained remarkable success in different fields of RS and its use in crop monitoring is also increasing. Although a few reviews cover the use of DL techniques in broader RS and agricultural applications, only a small number of references are made to RS-based crop-mapping and yield-prediction studies. A few recently conducted reviews attempted to provide overviews of the applications of DL in crop-yield prediction. However, they did not cover crop mapping and did not consider some of the critical attributes that reveal the essential issues in the field. This study is one of the first in the literature to provide a thorough systematic review of the important scientific works related to state-of-the-art DL techniques and RS in crop mapping and yield estimation. This review systematically identified 90 papers from databases of peer-reviewed scientific publications and comprehensively reviewed the aspects related to the employed platforms, sensors, input features, architectures, frameworks, training data, spatial distributions of study sites, output scales, evaluation metrics and performances. The review suggests that multiple DL-based solutions using different RS data and DL architectures have been developed in recent years, thereby providing reliable solutions for crop mapping and yield prediction. However, challenges related to scarce training data, the development of effective, efficient and generalisable models and the transparency of predictions should be addressed to implement these solutions at scale for diverse locations and crops. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent advancements in hyperspectral remote sensing bring exciting opportunities for various domains. Precision agriculture is one of the most widely-researched examples here, as it can benefit from the non-invasiveness and enormous scalability of the Earth observation solutions. In this paper, we focus on estimating the chlorophyll level in leaves using hyperspectral images—capturing this information may help farmers optimize their agricultural practices and is pivotal in planning the plants' treatment procedures. Although there are machine learning algorithms for this task, they are often validated over private datasets; therefore, their performance and generalization capabilities are virtually impossible to compare. We tackle this issue and introduce an open dataset including the hyperspectral and in situ ground-truth data, together with a validation procedure which is suggested to follow while investigating the emerging approaches for chlorophyll analysis with the use of our dataset. The experiments not only provided the solid baseline results obtained using 15 machine learning models over the introduced training-test dataset splits but also showed that it is possible to substantially improve the capabilities of the basic data-driven models. We believe that our work can become an important step toward standardizing the way the community validates algorithms for estimating chlorophyll-related parameters, and may be pivotal in consolidating the state of the art in the field by providing a clear and fair way of comparing new techniques over real data. Data Set: DOI:10.1016/j.dib.2022.108087. Data Set License: The license under which the data set is made available is (CC-BY). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crop yield forecasting during an ongoing season is crucial to ensure food security and commodity markets. For this reason, here, a scalable approach to forecast corn yields at the field-level using machine learning and satellite imagery from Sentinel-2 and Landsat missions is proposed. The model, evaluated on 1319 corn fields in the U.S. Corn Belt from 2017 to 2022, integrates biophysical parameters from Sentinel-2, Land Surface Temperature (LST) from Landsat, and agroclimatic data from ERA5 reanalysis dataset. Resampling the time series over thermal time significantly enhances predictive performance. The addition of LST to our model further improves in-season yield forecasting, through its capacity to detect early drought, which is not immediately visible to optical sensors such as the Sentinel-2. Finally, we propose a new two-stage machine learning strategy to mitigate early season partially available data. It consists in extending the current time series on the basis of complete historical data and adapting the model inference according to the crop progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This systematic review explores the role of remote sensing technology in addressing the requirements of sustainable olive growing, set against the backdrop of growing global food demands and contemporary environmental constraints in agriculture. The critical analysis presented in this document assesses different remote sensing platforms (satellites, manned aircraft vehicles, unmanned aerial vehicles and terrestrial equipment) and sensors (RGB, multispectral, thermal, hyperspectral and LiDAR), emphasizing their strategic selection based on specific study aims and geographical scales. Focusing on olive growing, particularly prominent in the Mediterranean region, this article analyzes the diverse applications of remote sensing, including the management of inventory and irrigation; detection/monitoring of diseases and phenology; and estimation of crucial parameters regarding biophysical parameters, water stress indicators, crop evapotranspiration and yield. Through a global perspective and insights from studies conducted in diverse olive-growing regions, this review underscores the potential benefits of remote sensing in shaping and improving sustainable agricultural practices, mitigating environmental impacts and ensuring the economic viability of olive trees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unmanned Aerial Systems (UASs) are increasingly vital in precision agriculture, offering detailed, real-time insights into plant health across multiple spectral domains. However, this technology's precision in estimating plant traits associated with Nitrogen Use Efficiency (NUE), and the factors affecting this precision, are not well-documented. This review examines the capabilities of UASs in assessing NUE in crops. Our analysis specifically highlights how different growth stages critically influence NUE and biomass assessments in crops and reveals a significant impact of specific signal processing techniques and sensor types on the accuracy of remote sensing data. Optimized flight parameters and precise sensor calibration are underscored as key for ensuring the reliability and validity of collected data. Additionally, the review delves into how different canopy structures, like planophile and erect leaf orientations, uniquely influence spectral data interpretation. The study also recognizes the untapped potential of image texture features in UAV-based remote sensing for detailed analysis of canopy micro-architecture. Overall, this research not only underscores the transformative impact of UAS technology on agricultural productivity and sustainability but also demonstrates its potential in providing more accurate and comprehensive insights for effective crop health and nutrient management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explored the suitability of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) obtained for six sugar management zones, over nine years (2002-2010), to forecast sugarcane yield on an annual and zonal base. To take into account the characteristics of the sugarcane crop management (15-month cycle for a ratoon, accompanied with continuous harvest in Western Kenya), the temporal series of NDVI was normalized through an original weighting method that considered the growth period of the sugarcane crop (wNDVI), and correlated it with historical yield datasets. Results when using wNDVI were consistent with historical yield and significant at P-value = 0.001, while results when using traditional annual NDVI integrated over the calendar year were not significant. This correlation between yield and wNDVI is mainly drawn by the spatial dimension of the data set (R2 = 0.53, when all years are aggregated together), rather than by the temporal dimension of the data set (R2 = 0.1, when all zones are aggregated). A test on 2012 yield estimation with this model realized a RMSE less than 5 t.ha-1. Despite progress in the methodology through the weighted NDVI, and an extensive spatio-temporal analysis, this paper shows the difficulty in forecasting sugarcane yield on an annual base using current satellite low-resolution data. This is particularly true in the context of small scale farmers with fields measuring less than the size of MODIS 250 m pixel, and in the context of a 15-month crop cycle with no seasonal cropping calendar. Future satellite missions should permit monitoring of sugarcane yields using image resolutions that facilitate extraction of crop phenology from a group of individual plots [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to both fit and predict crop biophysical variables with a SAR image series by performing a factorial experiment and estimating time series models using a combination of forecasts. Two plots of barley grown under rainfed conditions in Spain were monitored during the growing cycle of 2015 (February to June). The dataset included nine field estimations of agronomic parameters, 20 RADARSAT-2 images, and daily weather records. Ten polarimetric observables were retrieved and integrated to derive the six agronomic and monitoring variables, including the height, biomass, fraction of vegetation cover, leaf area index, water content, and soil moisture. The statistical methods applied, namely double smoothing, ARIMAX, and robust regression, allowed the adjustment and modelling of these field variables. The model equations showed a positive contribution of meteorological variables and a strong temporal component in the crop's development, as occurs in natural conditions. After combining different models, the results showed the best efficiency in terms of forecasting and the influence of several weather variables. The existence of a cointegration relationship between the data series of the same crop in different fields allows for adjusting and predicting the results in other fields with similar crops without re-modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crop production is a major source of food and livelihood for many people in arid and semi-arid (ASA) regions across the world. However, due to irregular climatic events, ASA regions are affected commonly by frequent droughts that can impact food production. In addition, ASA regions in the Middle East and Africa are often characterised by political instability, which can increase population vulnerability to hunger and ill health. Remote sensing (RS) provides a platform to improve the spatial prediction of crop production and food availability, with the potential to positively impact populations. This paper, firstly, describes some of the important characteristics of agriculture in ASA regions that require monitoring to improve their management. Secondly, it demonstrates how freely available RS data can support decision-making through a cost-effective monitoring system that complements traditional approaches for collecting agricultural data. Thirdly, it illustrates the challenges of employing freely available RS data for mapping and monitoring crop area, crop status and forecasting crop yield in these regions. Finally, existing approaches used in these applications are evaluated, and the challenges associated with their use and possible future improvements are discussed. We demonstrate that agricultural activities can be monitored effectively and both crop area and crop yield can be predicted in advance using RS data. We also discuss the future challenges associated with maintaining food security in ASA regions and explore some recent advances in RS that can be used to monitor cropland and forecast crop production and yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images have been extensively used in earthquake monitoring, resource survey, agricultural forecasting, etc. However, it is a challenge to interpret SAR images with severe speckle noise and geometric deformation due to the nature of radar imaging. The translation of SAR-to-optical images provides new support for the interpretation of SAR images. Most of the existing translation networks, which are based on generative adversarial networks (GANs), are vulnerable to part information loss during the feature reasoning stage, making the outline of the translated images blurred and semantic information missing. Aiming to solve these problems, cross-fusion reasoning and wavelet decomposition GAN (CFRWD-GAN) is proposed to preserve structural details and enhance high-frequency band information. Specifically, the cross-fusion reasoning (CFR) structure is proposed to preserve high-resolution, detailed features and low-resolution semantic features in the whole process of feature reasoning. Moreover, the discrete wavelet decomposition (WD) method is adopted to handle the speckle noise in SAR images and achieve the translation of high-frequency components. Finally, the WD branch is integrated with the CFR branch through an adaptive parameter learning method to translate SAR images to optical ones. Extensive experiments conducted on two publicly available datasets, QXS-SAROPT and SEN1-2, demonstrate a better translation performance of the proposed CFRWD-GAN compared to five other state-of-the-art models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable forecasts on the impacts of global change on the land surface are vital to inform the actions of policy and decision makers to mitigate consequences and secure livelihoods. Geospatial Earth Observation (EO) data from remote sensing satellites has been collected continuously for 40 years and has the potential to facilitate the spatio-temporal forecasting of land surface dynamics. In this review we compiled 143 papers on EO-based forecasting of all aspects of the land surface published in 16 high-ranking remote sensing journals within the past decade. We analyzed the literature regarding research focus, the spatial scope of the study, the forecasting method applied, as well as the temporal and technical properties of the input data. We categorized the identified forecasting methods according to their temporal forecasting mechanism and the type of input data. Time-lagged regressions which are predominantly used for crop yield forecasting and approaches based on Markov Chains for future land use and land cover simulation are the most established methods. The use of external climate projections allows the forecasting of numerical land surface parameters up to one hundred years into the future, while auto-regressive time series modeling can account for intra-annual variances. Machine learning methods have been increasingly used in all categories and multivariate modeling that integrates multiple data sources appears to be more popular than univariate auto-regressive modeling despite the availability of continuously expanding time series data. Regardless of the method, reliable EO-based forecasting requires high-level remote sensing data products and the resulting computational demand appears to be the main reason that most forecasts are conducted only on a local scale. In the upcoming years, however, we expect this to change with further advances in the field of machine learning, the publication of new global datasets, and the further establishment of cloud computing for data processing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate and continuous monitoring of leaf area index (LAI), a widely-used vegetation structural parameter, is crucial to characterize crop growth conditions and forecast crop yield. Meanwhile, advancements in collecting field LAI measurements have provided strong support for validating remote-sensing-derived LAI. This paper evaluates the performance of LAI retrieval from multi-source, remotely sensed data through comparisons with continuous field LAI measurements. Firstly, field LAI was measured continuously over periods of time in 2018 and 2019 using LAINet, a continuous LAI measurement system deployed using wireless sensor network (WSN) technology, over an agricultural region located at the Heihe watershed at northwestern China. Then, cloud-free images from optical satellite sensors, including Landsat 7 the Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 the Operational Land Imager (OLI), and Sentinel-2A/B Multispectral Instrument (MSI), were collected to derive LAI through inversion of the PROSAIL radiation transfer model using a look-up-table (LUT) approach. Finally, field LAI data were used to validate the multi-temporal LAI retrieved from remote-sensing data acquired by different satellite sensors. The results indicate that good accuracy was obtained using different inversion strategies for each sensor, while Green Chlorophyll Index (CIgreen) and a combination of three red-edge bands perform better for Landsat 7/8 and Sentinel-2 LAI inversion, respectively. Furthermore, the estimated LAI has good consistency with in situ measurements at vegetative stage (coefficient of determination R2 = 0.74, and root mean square error RMSE = 0.53 m2 m−2). At the reproductive stage, a significant underestimation was found (R2 = 0.41, and 0.89 m2 m−2 in terms of RMSE). This study suggests that time-series LAI can be retrieved from multi-source satellite data through model inversion, and the LAINet instrument could be used as a low-cost tool to provide continuous field LAI measurements to support LAI retrieval. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The early and accurate acquisition of crop yields is of great significance for maintaining food market stability and ensuring global food security. Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) remote sensing offers the possibility of predicting crop yields with its advantages of flexibility and high resolution. However, most of the existing remote sensing yield estimation studies focused solely on crops but did not fully consider the influence of soil on yield formation. As an integrated system, the status of crop and soil together determines the final yield. Compared to crop-only yield prediction, the approach that additionally considers soil background information will effectively improve the accuracy and reduce bias in the results. In this study, a novel method for segmenting crop and soil spectral images based on different vegetation coverage is first proposed, in which pixels of crop and soil can be accurately identified by determining the discriminant value Q. On the basis of extracting crop and soil waveband's information by individual pixel, an innovative approach, projected non-negative matrix factorization based on good point set and matrix cross fusion (PNMF-MCF), was developed to effectively extract and fuse the yield-related features of crop and soil. The experimental results on winter wheat show that the proposed segmentation method can accurately distinguish crop and soil pixels under complex soil background of four different growth periods. Compared with the single reflectance of crop or soil and the simple combination of crop and soil reflectance, the fused yield features spectral matrix FP obtained with PNMF−MCF achieved the best performance in yield prediction at the flowering, flag leaf and pustulation stages, with R2 higher than 0.7 in these three stages. Especially at the flowering stage, the yield prediction model based on PNMF-MCF had the highest R2 with 0.8516 and the lowest RMSE with 0.0744 kg/m2. Correlation analysis with key biochemical parameters (nitrogen and carbon, pigments and biomass) of yield formation showed that the flowering stage was the most vigorous season for photosynthesis and the most critical stage for yield prediction. This study provides a new perspective and complete framework for high-precision crop yield forecasting using UAV remote sensing technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leaf area index(LAI) is an important indicator of crop growth and water status. With the continuous development of precision agriculture, estimating LAI using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) remote sensing has received extensive attention due to its low cost, high throughput and accuracy. In this study, multispectral and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) sensors carried by a UAV were used to obtain multisource data of a cotton field. The method to accurately relate ground measured data with UAV data was built using empirical statistical regression models and machine learning algorithm models (RFR, SVR and ANN). In addition to the traditional spectral parameters, it is also feasible to estimate LAI using UAVs with LiDAR to obtain structural parameters. Machine learning models, especially the RFR model (R2 = 0.950, RMSE = 0.332), can estimate cotton LAI more accurately than empirical statistical regression models. Different plots and years of cotton datasets were used to test the model robustness and generality; although the accuracy of the machine learning model decreased overall, the estimation accuracy based on structural and multisources was still acceptable. However, selecting appropriate input parameters for different canopy opening and closing statuses can alleviate the degradation of accuracy, where input parameters select multisource parameters before canopy closure while structural parameters are selected after canopy closure. Finally, we propose a gap fraction model based on a LAImax threshold at various periods of cotton growth that can estimate cotton LAI with high accuracy, particularly when the calculation grid is 20 cm (R2 = 0.952, NRMSE = 12.6%). This method does not require much data modeling and has strong universality. It can be widely used in cotton LAI prediction in a variety of environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction of winter wheat yields is crucial for farmers and decision-makers to reduce yield losses and ensure food security. Recently, numerous researchers have utilized machine learning (ML) methods to predict crop yield, using observational climate variables and satellite data. Meanwhile, some studies also illustrated the potential of state-of-the-art dynamical atmospheric prediction in crop yield forecasting. However, the potential of coupling both methods has not been fully explored. Herein, we aimed to establish a skilled ML–dynamical hybrid model for crop yield forecasting (MHCF v1.0), which hybridizes ML and a global dynamical atmospheric prediction system, and applied it to northern China at the S2S time scale. In this study, we adopted three mainstream machining learning algorithms (XGBoost, RF, and SVR) and the multiple linear regression (MLR) model, and three major datasets, including satellite data from MOD13C1, observational climate data from CRU, and S2S atmospheric prediction data from IAP CAS, used to predict winter wheat yield from 2005 to 2014, at the grid level. We found that, among the four models examined in this work, XGBoost reached the highest skill with the S2S prediction as inputs, scoring R2 of 0.85 and RMSE of 0.78 t/ha 3–4 months, leading the winter wheat harvest. Moreover, the results demonstrated that crop yield forecasting with S2S dynamical predictions generally outperforms that with observational climate data. Our findings highlighted that the coupling of ML and S2S dynamical atmospheric prediction provided a useful tool for yield forecasting, which could guide agricultural practices, policy-making and agricultural insurance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within-season crop yield forecasting at national and regional levels is crucial to ensure food security. Yet, forecasting is a challenge because of incomplete knowledge about the heterogeneity of factors determining crop growth, above all management and cultivars. This motivates us to propose a method for early forecasting of winter wheat yields in low-information systems regarding crop management and cultivars, and uncertain weather condition. The study was performed in two contrasting regions in southwest Germany, Kraichgau and Swabian Jura. We used in-season green leaf area index (LAI) as a proxy for end-of-season grain yield. We applied PILOTE, a simple and computationally inexpensive semi-empirical radiative transfer model to produce yield forecasts and assimilated LAI data measured in-situ and sensed by satellites (Landsat and Sentinel-2). To assimilate the LAI data into the PILOTE model, we used the particle filtering method. Both weather and sowing data were treated as random variables, acknowledging principal sources of uncertainties to yield forecasting. As such, we used the stochastic weather generator MarkSim® GCM to produce an ensemble of uncertain meteorological boundary conditions until the end of the season. Sowing dates were assumed normally distributed. To evaluate the performance of the data assimilation scheme, we set up the PILOTE model without data assimilation, treating weather data and sowing dates as random variables (baseline Monte Carlo simulation). Data assimilation increased the accuracy and precision of LAI simulation. Increasing the number of assimilation times decreased the mean absolute error (MAE) of LAI prediction from satellite data by ~1 to 0.2 m2/m2. Yield prediction was improved by data assimilation as compared to the baseline Monte Carlo simulation in both regions. Yield prediction by assimilating satellite-derived LAI showed similar statistics as assimilating the LAI data measured in-situ. The error in yield prediction by assimilating satellite-derived LAI was 7% in Kraichgau and 4% in Swabian Jura, whereas the yield prediction error by Monte Carlo simulation was 10 percent in both regions. Overall, we conclude that assimilating even noisy LAI data before anthesis substantially improves forecasting of winter wheat grain yield by reducing prediction errors caused by uncertainties in weather data, incomplete knowledge about management, and model calibration uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Low resolution satellite imagery has been extensively used for crop monitoring and yield forecasting for over 30 years and plays an important role in a growing number of operational systems. The combination of their high temporal frequency with their extended geographical coverage generally associated with low costs per area unit makes these images a convenient choice at both national and regional scales. Several qualitative and quantitative approaches can be clearly distinguished, going from the use of low resolution satellite imagery as the main predictor of final crop yield to complex crop growth models where remote sensing-derived indicators play different roles, depending on the nature of the model and on the availability of data measured on the ground. Vegetation performance anomaly detection with low resolution images continues to be a fundamental component of early warning and drought monitoring systems at the regional scale. For applications at more detailed scales, the limitations created by the mixed nature of low resolution pixels are being progressively reduced by the higher resolution offered by new sensors, while the continuity of existing systems remains crucial for ensuring the availability of long time series as needed by the majority of the yield prediction methods used today. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crop yield forecasting is critical for enhancing food security and ensuring an appropriate food supply. It is critical to complete this activity with high precision at the regional and national levels to facilitate speedy decision-making. Tea is a big cash crop that contributes significantly to economic development, with a market of USD 200 billion in 2020 that is expected to reach over USD 318 billion by 2025. As a developing country, Bangladesh can be a greater part of this industry and increase its exports through its tea yield and production with favorable climatic features and land quality. Regrettably, the tea yield in Bangladesh has not increased significantly since 2008 like many other countries, despite having suitable climatic and land conditions, which is why quantifying the yield is imperative. This study developed a novel spatiotemporal hybrid DRS–RF model with a dragonfly optimization (DR) algorithm and support vector regression (S) as a feature selection approach. This study used satellite-derived hydro-meteorological variables between 1981 and 2020 from twenty stations across Bangladesh to address the spatiotemporal dependency of the predictor variables for the tea yield (Y). The results illustrated that the proposed DRS–RF hybrid model improved tea yield forecasting over other standalone machine learning approaches, with the least relative error value (11%). This study indicates that integrating the random forest model with the dragonfly algorithm and SVR-based feature selection improves prediction performance. This hybrid approach can help combat food risk and management for other countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For farmers, policymakers, and government agencies, it is critical to accurately define agricultural crop phenology and its spatial-temporal variability. At the moment, two approaches are utilized to report crop phenology. On one hand, land surface phenology provides information about the overall trend, whereas weekly reports from USDA-NASS provide information about the development of particular crops at the regional level. High-cadence earth observations might help to improve the accuracy of these estimations and bring more precise crop phenology classifications closer to what farmers demand. The second component of the proposed solution requires the use of robust classifiers (e.g., random forest, RF) capable of successfully managing large data sets. To evaluate this solution, this study compared the output of a RF classifier model using weather, two different satellite sources (Planet Fusion; PF and Sentinel-2; S-2), and ground truth data to improve maize (Zea mays L.) crop phenology classification using two regions of Kansas (Southwest and Central) as a testbed during the 2017 growing season. Our findings suggests that high temporal resolution (PF) data can significantly improve crop classification metrics (f1-score = 0.94) relative to S-2 (f1-score = 0.86). Additionally, a decline in the f1-score between 0.74 and 0.60 was obtained when we assessed the ability of S-2 to extend the temporal forecast for crop phenology. This research highlights the critical nature of very high temporal resolution (daily) earth observation data for crop monitoring and decision making in agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid population growth is the main driver of the accelerating urban sprawl into agricultural lands in Egypt. This is particularly obvious in governorates where there is no desert backyard (e.g., Gharbia) for urban expansion. This work presents an overview of machine learning-based and state-of-the-art remote sensing products and methodologies to address the issue of random urban expansion, which negatively impacts environmental sustainability. The study aims (1) to investigate the land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes over the past 27 years, and to simulate the future LULC dynamics over Gharbia; and (2) to produce an Urbanization Risk Map in order for the decision-makers to be informed of the districts with priority for sustainable planning. Time-series Landsat images were utilized to analyze the historical LULC change between 1991 and 2018, and to predict the LULC change by 2033 and 2048 based on a logistic regression–Markov chain model. The results show that there is a rapid urbanization trend corresponding to a diminution of the agricultural land. The agricultural sector represented 91.2% of the total land area in 1991, which was reduced to 83.7% in 2018. The built-up area exhibited a similar (but reversed) pattern. The results further reveal that the observed LULC dynamics will continue in a like manner in the future, confirming a remarkable urban sprawl over the agricultural land from 2018 to 2048. The cultivated land changes have a strong negative correlation with the built-up cover changes (the R2 were 0.73 in 1991–2003, and 0.99 in 2003–2018, respectively). Based on the Fuzzy TOPSIS technique, Mahalla Kubra and Tanta are the districts which were most susceptible to the undesirable environmental and socioeconomic impacts of the persistent urbanization. Such an unplanned loss of the fertile agricultural lands of the Nile Delta could negatively influence the production of premium agricultural crops for the local market and export. This study is substantial for the understanding of future trends of LULC changes, and for the proposal of alternative policies to reduce urban sprawl on fertile agricultural lands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale crop mapping is essential for agricultural management. Phenological variation often exists in the same crop due to different climatic regions or practice management, resulting in current classification models requiring sufficient training samples from different regions. However, the cost of sample collection is more time-consuming, costly, and labor-intensive, so it is necessary to develop automatic crop mapping models that require only a few samples and can be extended to a large area. In this study, a new white bolls index (WBI) based on the unique canopy of cotton at the bolls opening stage was proposed, which can characterize the intensity of bolls opening. The value of WBI will increase as the opening of the bolls increases. As a result, the white bolls index can be used to detect cotton automatically from other crops. Four study areas in different regions were used to evaluate the WBI performance. The overall accuracy (OA) for the four study sites was more than 82%. Additionally, the dates when the opening stage of bolls begins can be determined based on the time series of WBI. The results of this research demonstrated the potential of the proposed approach for cotton mapping using sentinel-2 time series of remotely sensed data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid changing climate has increased the risk of natural hazards and threatened global and regional food security. Near real-time monitoring of crop response to agrometeorological hazards is fundamental to ensuring national and global food security. However, quantifying crop responses to a specific hazard in the natural environment is still quite challenging, especially over large areas, due to the lack of tools to separate the independent impact of the hazard on crops from other confounding factors. In this study, we present a general difference-in-differences (DID) framework to monitor crop response to agrometeorological hazards at near real-time using widely accessible remotely sensed vegetation indices (VIs). To demonstrate the effectiveness of the DID framework, we applied it in quantifying the dry-hot wind impact on winter wheat in northern China as a case study using the VIs calculated from the MODIS data. The monitoring results for three years with varying severity levels of dry-hot events (i.e., 2007, 2013, and 2014) demonstrated that the framework can effectively detect winter wheat growing areas affected by dry-hot wind hazards. The estimated damage shows a notable relationship (R2 = 0.903, p < 0.001) with the dry-hot wind intensity calculated from meteorological data, suggesting the effectiveness of the method when field data on a large scale is not available for direct validation. The main advantage of this method is that it can effectively isolate the impact of a specific hazard (i.e., dry-hot wind in the case study) from the mixed signals caused by other confounding factors. This general DID framework is very flexible and can be easily extended to other natural hazards and crop types with proper adjustment. Not only can this framework improve the crop yield forecast but also it can provide near real-time assessment for farmers to adapt their farming practice to mitigate impacts of agricultural hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The size and location of agricultural fields that are in active use and the type of use during the growing season are among the vital information that is needed for the careful planning and forecasting of agricultural production at national and regional scales. In areas where such data are not readily available, an independent seasonal monitoring method is needed. Remote sensing is a widely used tool to map land use types, although there are some limitations that can partly be circumvented by using, among others, multiple observations, careful feature selection and appropriate analysis methods. Here, we used Sentinel-2 satellite image time series (SITS) over the land area of Norway to map three agricultural land use classes: cereal crops, fodder crops (grass) and unused areas. The Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and two variants of the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), are implemented on SITS data of four different temporal resolutions. These enabled us to compare twelve model-dataset combinations to identify the model-dataset combination that results in the most accurate predictions. The CNN is implemented in the spectral and temporal dimensions instead of the conventional spatial dimension. Rather than using existing deep learning architectures, an autotuning procedure is implemented so that the model hyperparameters are empirically optimized during the training. The results obtained on held-out test data show that up to 94 % overall accuracy and 90% Cohen's Kappa can be obtained when the 2D CNN is applied on the SITS data with a temporal resolution of 7 days. This is closely followed by the 1D CNN on the same dataset. However, the latter performs better than the former in predicting data outside the training set. It is further observed that cereal is predicted with the highest accuracy, followed by grass. Predicting the unused areas has been found to be difficult as there is no distinct surface condition that is common for all unused areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heading and flowering are two key phenological stages in the growth process of winter wheat. It is of great significance for agricultural management and scientific research to accurately monitor and forecast the heading and flowering dates of winter wheat. However, the monitoring accuracy of existing methods based on remote sensing needs to be improved, and these methods cannot realize forecasting in advance. This study proposed an accumulated temperature method (ATM) for monitoring and forecasting the heading and flowering dates of winter wheat from the perspective of thermal requirements for crop growth. The ATM method consists of three key procedures: (1) extracting the green-up date of winter wheat as the starting point of temperature accumulation with the dynamic threshold method from remotely sensed vegetation index (VI) time-series data, (2) calculating the accumulated temperature and determining the thermal requirements from the green-up date to the heading date or the flowering date based on phenology observation samples, and (3) combining the satellite-derived green-up date, daily temperature data, and thermal requirements to monitor and forecast the heading date and flowering date of winter wheat. When applying the ATM method to winter wheat in the North China Plain during 2017–2019, the root mean square error (RMSE) for the estimated heading date was between 4.76 and 6.13 d and the RMSE for the estimated flowering date was between 5.30 and 6.41 d. By contrast, the RMSE for the heading and flowering dates estimated by the widely used maximum vegetation index method was approximately 10 d. Furthermore, the forecasting accuracy of the ATM method was also high, and the RMSE was approximately 6 d. In summary, the proposed ATM method can be used to accurately monitor and forecast the heading and flowering dates of winter wheat in large spatial scales and it performs better than the existing maximum vegetation index method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The remote sensing of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has attracted considerable attention as a new monitor of vegetation photosynthesis. Previous studies have revealed the close correlation between SIF and terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP), and have used SIF to estimate vegetation GPP. This study investigated the relationship between the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) SIF products at two retrieval bands (SIF757, SIF771) and the autumn crop production in China during the summer of 2015 on different timescales. Subsequently, we evaluated the performance to estimate the autumn crop production of 2016 by using the optimal model developed in 2015. In addition, the OCO-2 SIF was compared with the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indices (VIs) (normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI; enhanced vegetation index, EVI) for predicting the crop production. All the remotely sensed products exhibited the strongest correlation with autumn crop production in July. The OCO-2 SIF757 estimated autumn crop production best (R2 = 0.678, p < 0.01; RMSE = 748.901 ten kilotons; MAE = 567.629 ten kilotons). SIF monitored the crop dynamics better than VIs, although the performances of VIs were similar to SIF. The estimation accuracy was limited by the spatial resolution and discreteness of the OCO-2 SIF products. Our findings demonstrate that SIF is a feasible approach for the crop production estimation and is not inferior to VIs, and suggest that accurate autumn crop production forecasts while using the SIF-based model can be obtained one to two months before the harvest. Furthermore, the proposed method can be widely applied with the development of satellite-based SIF observation technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aquaculture makes a crucial contribution to global food security and protein intake and is a basis for many livelihoods. Every second fish consumed today is produced in aquaculture systems, mainly in land-based water ponds situated along the coastal areas. Satellite remote sensing enables high-resolution mapping of pond aquaculture, facilitating inventory analyses to support sustainable development of the planet's valuable coastal ecosystems. Free, full and open data from the Copernicus earth observation missions opens up new potential for the detection and monitoring of aquaculture from space. High-resolution time series data acquired by active microwave instruments aboard the Sentinel-1 satellites and fully automated, object-based image analysis allow the identification of aquaculture ponds. In view of the diversity and complexity in the production of aquaculture products, yield and production varies greatly among species. Although national statistics on aquaculture production exist, there is a large gap of pond-specific aquaculture production quantities. In this regard, earth observation-based mapping and monitoring of pond aquaculture can be used to estimate production and has great potential for global production projections. For the deltas of the Mekong River, Red River, Pearl River, and Yellow River, as one of the world's most significant aquaculture production regions, we detected aquaculture ponds from high spatial resolution Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. We collected aquaculture production and yield statistics at national, regional and local levels to link earth observation-based findings to the size, number and distribution of aquaculture ponds with production estimation. With the SAR derived mapping product, it is possible for the first time to assess aquaculture on single pond level at a regional scale and use that information for spatial analyses and production estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]