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Grassland aboveground biomass is crucial for evaluating grassland desertification, degradation, and grassland and livestock balance. Given the lack of understanding of mechanical processes and limited simulation accuracy for grassland aboveground biomass estimation, especially at the regional scale, this study investigates a new method combining remote sensing data assimilation technology and a grassland process-based model to estimate regional grassland biomass, focusing on improving the simulation accuracy by modeling and revealing the mechanism interpretability of grassland growth processes. Xilinhot City of Inner Mongolia was used as the study area. The ModVege model was selected as the grass dynamic simulation model. A likelihood function was constructed composed of the LAI, grassland aboveground biomass, and daily measurements wherein the accumulated temperature reached ST2 (the temperature sum defining the end of reproductive growth). Then, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology was adapted to calibrate the ModVege model by maximizing the likelihood function. The time-series LAI from MOD15A3H was assimilated into the ModVege model, and the model parameters ST2 and BMGV0 (initial biomass and green vegetative tissues, respectively) were optimized at a 500 m pixel scale based on the four-dimensional variational method (4DVar) method. Compared with August 15th, the RMSE and MAPE of aboveground biomass were 242 kg/ha and 10%, respectively, after calibration. Data assimilation improved this accuracy, with the RMSE decreasing to 214 kg/ha. Overall, the aboveground grassland biomass of Xilinhot City shows spatial distribution patterns of high value in the northeast and low value in the central and southeast areas. Generally, the method implemented in this study provides an important reference for the aboveground biomass estimation of regional grassland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting crop maturity dates is important for improving crop harvest planning and grain quality. The prediction of crop maturity dates by assimilating remote sensing information into crop growth model has not been fully explored. In this study, a data assimilation framework incorporating the leaf area index (LAI) product from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) into a World Food Studies (WOFOST) model was proposed to predict the maturity dates of winter wheat in Henan province, China. Minimization of normalized cost function was used to obtain the input parameters of the WOFOST model. The WOFOST model was run with the re-initialized parameter to forecast the maturity dates of winter wheat grid by grid, and THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) was used as forecasting period weather input in the future 15 days (d) for the WOFOST model. The results demonstrated a promising regional maturity date prediction with determination coefficient (R2) of 0.94 and the root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.86 d. The outcomes also showed that the optimal forecasting starting time for Henan was 30 April, corresponding to a stage from anthesis to grain filling. Our study indicated great potential of using data assimilation approaches in winter wheat maturity date prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crop yield estimation at a regional scale over a long period of time is of great significance to food security. In past decades, the integration of remote sensing observations and crop growth models has been recognized as a promising approach for crop growth monitoring and yield estimation. Optical remote sensing data are susceptible to cloud and rain, while synthetic aperture radar (SAR) can penetrate through clouds and has all-weather capabilities. This allows for more reliable and consistent crop monitoring and yield estimation in terms of radar sensor data. The aim of this study is to improve the accuracy for winter wheat yield estimation by assimilating time series soil moisture images, which are retrieved by a water cloud model using SAR and optical data as input, into the crop model. In this study, SAR images were acquired by C-band SAR sensors boarded on Sentinel-1 satellites and optical images were obtained from a Sentinel-2 multi-spectral instrument (MSI) for Hengshui city of Hebei province in China. Remote sensing data and ground data were all collected during the main growing season of winter wheat. Both the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), derived from Sentinel-2, and backscattering coefficients and polarimetric indicators, computed from Sentinel-1, were used in the water cloud model to derive time series soil moisture (SM) images. To improve the prediction of crop yields at the field scale, we incorporated remotely sensed soil moisture into the World Food Studies (WOFOST) model using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) algorithm. In general, the trend of soil moisture inversion was consistent with the ground measurements, with the coefficient of determination (R2) equal to 0.45, 0.53, and 0.49, respectively, and RMSE was 9.16%, 7.43%, and 8.53%, respectively, for three observation dates. The winter wheat yield estimation results showed that the assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture improved the correlation of observed and simulated yields (R2 = 0.35; RMSE =934 kg/ha) compared to the situation without data assimilation (R2 = 0.21; RMSE = 1330 kg/ha). Consequently, the results of this study demonstrated the potential and usefulness of assimilating SM retrieved from both Sentinel-1 C-band SAR and Sentinel-2 MSI optical remote sensing data into WOFOST model for winter wheat yield estimation and could also provide a reference for crop yield estimation with data assimilation for other crop types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The crop model data assimilation approach has been acknowledged as an effective tool for monitoring crop growth and estimating yield. However, the choice of assimilated variables and the mismatch in scale between remotely sensed observations and crop model-simulated state variables have various effects on the performance of yield estimation. This study aims to examine the accuracy of crop yield estimation through the joint assimilation of leaf area index (LAI) and soil moisture (SM) and to examine the scale effect between remotely sensed data and crop model simulations. To address these issues, we proposed an improved crop data-model assimilation (CDMA) framework, which integrates LAI and SM, as retrieved from remotely sensed data, into the World Food Studies (WOFOST) model using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approach for winter wheat yield estimation. The results showed that the yield estimation at a 10 m grid size outperformed that at a 500 m grid size, using the same assimilation strategy. Additionally, the winter wheat yield estimation accuracy was higher when using the bivariate data assimilation method (R2 = 0.46, RMSE = 756 kg/ha) compared to the univariate method. In conclusion, our study highlights the advantages of joint assimilating LAI and SM for crop yield estimation and emphasizes the importance of finer spatial resolution in remotely sensed observations for crop yield estimation using the CDMA framework. The proposed approach would help to develop a high-accuracy crop yield monitoring system using optical and SAR retrieved parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate and timely regional crop yield information, particularly field-level yield estimation, is essential for commodity traders and producers in planning production, growing, harvesting, and other interconnected marketing activities. In this study, we propose a novel data assimilation framework. Firstly, we construct the likelihood constraints for a process-based crop growth model based on the previous year's statistical yield and the current year's field observations. Then, we infer the posterior sets of model-simulated time-series LAI and the final yield of winter wheat with a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for each meteorological data grid of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis (v5ERA5). Finally, we estimate the winter wheat yield at the spatial resolution of 10 m by combining Sentinel-2 LAI and the WOFOST model in Hengshui, the prefecture-level city of Hebei province of China. The results show that the proposed framework can estimate the winter wheat yield with a coefficient of determination R2 equal to 0.29 and mean absolute percentage error MAPE equal to 7.20% compared to within-field measurements. However, the agricultural stress that crop growth models cannot quantitatively simulate, such as lodging, can greatly reduce the accuracy of yield estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]