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As one of the four major bay areas in the world, the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is a highly integrated mega urban agglomeration and its unparalleled urbanization has induced prominent land contradictions between humans and nature, which hinders its sustainability and has become the primary concern in this region. In this paper, we probed the historical characteristics of land use and land cover change (LUCC) in the GBA from 2005 to 2015, and forecasted its future land use pattern for 2030, 2050, and 2070, using a cellular automata–Markov (CA–Markov) model, under three typical tailored scenarios, i.e., urban development (UD), cropland protection (CP), and ecology security (ES), for land use optimization. The major findings are as follows: (1) The encroachments of build-up land on the other land uses under rapid urbanization accounted for the leading forces of LUCCs in the past decade. Accordingly, the urban sprawl was up to 1441.73 km2 (23.47%), with cropland, forest land, and water areas reduced by 570.77 km2 (4.38%), 526.05 km2 (1.76%), and 429.89 km2 (10.88%), respectively. (2) Based on the validated CA–Markov model, significant differences are found in future land use patterns under multiple scenarios, with the discrepancy magnified over time and driven by different orientations. (3) Through comprehensive comparisons and tradeoffs, the ES scenario mode seems optimal for the GBA in the next decades, which optimizes the balance between socio-economic development and ecological protection. These results serve as an early warning for future land problems and can be applied to land use management and policy formulation to promote the sustainable development of the GBA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatiotemporal distribution of ecosystem service values (ESVs) and ecological risk are critical indicators to represent the regional ecological protection level and potential of sustainable development, which largely depend on land-use patterns. Aiming to contribute to global climate mitigation, China has proposed dual-carbon goals that would remarkably influence the land-use/cover change (LUCC) distribution. Based on the Landsat land cover data of 2000, 2010 and 2020 and multisource satellite products, several driving factors are integrated into the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model to simulate future LUCC patterns for the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) under rapid urbanization, cropland protection and carbon neutral (CN) scenarios from 2020 to 2050. Spatial–temporal ecosystem service and ESVs are allocated using INVEST and the equivalent factor method and thus ecological risks are evaluated using the entropy method. Results indicate that forest growth is the largest under the CN scenario, especially in the northwestern and northeastern GBA, exceeding 25,800 km2 in 2050, which results in both the highest habitat quality and carbon storage. The largest ESVs, reaching higher than 5210 yuan/pixel, are found in the CN scenario, particularly expanding toward the suburban area, leading to the lowest ecological risks. From 2020 to 2050, habitat quality, carbon storage and ESVs improve, while ecological risks decline in the CN scenario. This research provides implications for economic and ecological balanced development and gives references to the carbon-neutral pathway for the GBA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The change of spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation has an important impact on urban water security. The effect of land cover land use change (LCLUC) on the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation needs to be further studied. In this study, transfer matrix, standard deviation ellipse and spatial autocorrelation analysis techniques were used. Based on the data of land cover land use and precipitation, this paper analyzed the land cover land use change and its influence on the spatial and temporal distribution pattern of precipitation in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). The results showed that from 2001 to 2019, the area of cropland, water, barren, forest/grassland in the GBA decreased by 44.03%, 8.05%, 50.22%, 0.43%, respectively, and the area of construction land increased by 20.05%. The precipitation in the GBA was mainly concentrated in spring and summer, and the precipitation in spring tended to increase gradually, while the precipitation in summer tended to decrease gradually, while the precipitation in autumn and winter has no obvious change. It was found that with the change of land cover land use, the spatial distribution of precipitation also changed. Especially in the areas where the change of construction land was concentrated, the spatial distribution of precipitation changed most obviously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal areas are usually densely populated, economically developed, ecologically dense, and subject to a phenomenon that is becoming increasingly serious, land subsidence. Land subsidence can accelerate the increase in relative sea level, lead to a series of potential hazards, and threaten the stability of the ecological environment and human lives. In this paper, we adopted two commonly used multi-temporal interferometric synthetic aperture radar (MTInSAR) techniques, Small baseline subset (SBAS) and Temporarily coherent point (TCP) InSAR, to monitor the land subsidence along the entire coastline of Guangdong Province. The long-wavelength L-band ALOS/PALSAR-1 dataset collected from 2007 to 2011 is used to generate the average deformation velocity and deformation time series. Linear subsidence rates over 150 mm/yr are observed in the Chaoshan Plain. The spatiotemporal characteristics are analyzed and then compared with land use and geology to infer potential causes of the land subsidence. The results show that (1) subsidence with notable rates (>20 mm/yr) mainly occurs in areas of aquaculture, followed by urban, agricultural, and forest areas, with percentages of 40.8%, 37.1%, 21.5%, and 0.6%, respectively; (2) subsidence is mainly concentrated in the compressible Holocene deposits, and clearly associated with the thickness of the deposits; and (3) groundwater exploitation for aquaculture and agricultural use outside city areas is probably the main cause of subsidence along these coastal areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 21st century, China has experienced rapid development, and the spatial and temporal changes in vegetation cover have become increasingly significant. Southern China is a representative region for human activities, climate change, and vegetation change, but the current human understanding of the interactions between vegetation and its influencing factors is still very limited. In our study, we use NDVI as the vegetation greenness data, land cover data, temperature, precipitation, downgradient shortwave radiation, and CO 2 data to investigate the interrelationship among vegetation, climate change, and human activities in southern China. The changes and their consistency were studied by trend analysis and Hurst exponent analysis. Then, the contribution of each influencing factor from 2001 to 2020 was quantified by random forest. The results showed that the vegetation in southern China showed an overall rising trend, and areas with a continuous changing trend were concentrated in the Pearl River Delta, western Guangdong, and eastern Guangdong, with a growth rate of 0.02∼0.04%. The vegetation in northern Guangdong did not change significantly. The main factor of NDVI spatial variation in southern China is the land-use factor, accounting for 79.4% of the variation, while climate factors produce further differences. The contributions and lagged effects of NDVI factors on different land-use types and the lagged effects of different climate factors are different and are related to the climate and vegetation background in Sourthern China. Our study is useful in estimating the contribution of NDVI change by each considered factor and formulating environmentally friendly regional development strategies and promoting human–land harmony. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Detailed and accurate information on the spatial variation of land cover and land use is a critical component of local ecology and environmental research. For these tasks, high spatial resolution images are required. Considering the trade-off between high spatial and high temporal resolution in remote sensing images, many learning-based models (e.g., Convolutional neural network, sparse coding, Bayesian network) have been established to improve the spatial resolution of coarse images in both the computer vision and remote sensing fields. However, data for training and testing in these learning-based methods are usually limited to a certain location and specific sensor, resulting in the limited ability to generalize the model across locations and sensors. Recently, generative adversarial nets (GANs), a new learning model from the deep learning field, show many advantages for capturing high-dimensional nonlinear features over large samples. In this study, we test whether the GAN method can improve the generalization ability across locations and sensors with some modification to accomplish the idea "training once, apply to everywhere and different sensors" for remote sensing images. This work is based on super-resolution generative adversarial nets (SRGANs), where we modify the loss function and the structure of the network of SRGANs and propose the improved SRGAN (ISRGAN), which makes model training more stable and enhances the generalization ability across locations and sensors. In the experiment, the training and testing data were collected from two sensors (Landsat 8 OLI and Chinese GF 1) from different locations (Guangdong and Xinjiang in China). For the cross-location test, the model was trained in Guangdong with the Chinese GF 1 (8 m) data to be tested with the GF 1 data in Xinjiang. For the cross-sensor test, the same model training in Guangdong with GF 1 was tested in Landsat 8 OLI images in Xinjiang. The proposed method was compared with the neighbor-embedding (NE) method, the sparse representation method (SCSR), and the SRGAN. The peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR) and structural similarity (SSIM) were chosen for the quantitive assessment. The results showed that the ISRGAN is superior to the NE (PSNR: 30.999, SSIM: 0.944) and SCSR (PSNR: 29.423, SSIM: 0.876) methods, and the SRGAN (PSNR: 31.378, SSIM: 0.952), with the PSNR = 35.816 and SSIM = 0.988 in the cross-location test. A similar result was seen in the cross-sensor test. The ISRGAN had the best result (PSNR: 38.092, SSIM: 0.988) compared to the NE (PSNR: 35.000, SSIM: 0.982) and SCSR (PSNR: 33.639, SSIM: 0.965) methods, and the SRGAN (PSNR: 32.820, SSIM: 0.949). Meanwhile, we also tested the accuracy improvement for land cover classification before and after super-resolution by the ISRGAN. The results show that the accuracy of land cover classification after super-resolution was significantly improved, in particular, the impervious surface class (the road and buildings with high-resolution texture) improved by 15%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) are prime variables that reflect changes in ecological systems. The Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macau (GHKM) region located in South China has undergone rapid economic development and urbanization over the past three decades (1986–2017). Therefore, this study investigates the changes in LULC of GHKM based on multi-year Landsat and nighttime light (NTL) data. First, a supervised classification technique, i.e., support vector machine (SVM), is used to classify the Landsat images into seven thematic classes: forest, grassland, water, fishponds, built-up, bareland, and farmland. Second, the demographic activities are studied by calculating the light index, using nighttime light data. Third, several socioeconomic factors, derived from statistical yearbooks, are used to determine the impact on the LULCC in the study area. The post-classification change detection shows that the increase in the urban area, from 0.76% (1488.35 km2) in 1986 to 10.31% (20,643.28 km2) in 2017, caused GHKM to become the largest economic segment in South China. This unprecedented urbanization and industrialization resulted in a substantial reduction in both farmland (from 53.54% (105,123.93 km2) to 33.07% (64,932.19 km2)) and fishponds (from 1.25% (2463.35 km2) to 0.85% (1674.61 km2)) during 1986–2017. The most dominant conversion, however, was of farmland to built-up area. The subsequent urban growth is also reflected in the increasing light index trends revealed by NTL data. Of further interest is that the overall forest cover increased from 33.24% (65,257.55 km2) to 45.02% (88,384.19 km2) during the study period, with a significant proportion of farmland transformed into forest as a result of different afforestation programs. An analysis of the socioeconomic indicators shows that the increase in gross domestic product, total investment in real estate, and total sales of consumer goods, combined with the overall industrialization, have led to (1) urbanization on a large scale, (2) an increased light index, and (3) the reduction of farmland. The speed of development suggests that opportunistic development has taken place, which requires a pressing need to improve land policies and regulations for more sustainable urban development and protection of farmland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]