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Accurate and timely crop yield prediction over large spatial regions is critical to national food security and sustainable agricultural development. However, designing a robust model for crop yield prediction over a large spatial region remains challenging due to inadequate surveyed samples and an under-development of deep-learning frameworks. To tackle this issue, we integrated multi-source (remote sensing, weather, and soil properties) data into a dual-stream deep-learning neural network model for winter wheat in China's major planting regions. The model consists of two branches for robust feature learning: one for sequential data (remote sensing and weather series data) and the other for statical data (soil properties). The extracted features by both branches were aggregated through an adaptive fusion model to forecast the final wheat yield. We trained and tested the model by using official county-level statistics of historical winter wheat yields. The model achieved an average R2 of 0.79 and a root-mean-square error of 650.21 kg/ha, superior to the compared methods and outperforming traditional machine-learning methods. The dual-stream deep-learning neural network model provided decent in-season yield prediction, with an error of about 13% compared to official statistics about two months before harvest. By effectively extracting and aggregating features from multi-source datasets, the new approach provides a practical approach to predicting winter wheat yields at the county scale over large spatial regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite-based models have tremendous potential for monitoring crop production because satellite data can provide temporally and spatially continuous crop growth information at large scale. This study used a satellite-based vegetation production model (i.e., eddy covariance light use efficiency, EC-LUE) to estimate national winter wheat gross primary production, and then combined this model with the harvest index (ratio of aboveground biomass to yield) to convert the estimated winter wheat production to yield. Specifically, considering the spatial differences of the harvest index, we used a cross-validation method to invert the harvest index of winter wheat among counties, municipalities and provinces. Using the field-surveyed and statistical yield data, we evaluated the model performance, and found the model could explain more than 50% of the spatial variations of the yield both in field-surveyed regions and most administrative units. Overall, the mean absolute percentage errors of the yield are less than 20% in most counties, municipalities and provinces, and the mean absolute percentage errors for the production of winter wheat at the national scale is 4.06%. This study demonstrates that a satellite-based model is an alternative method for crop yield estimation on a larger scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Timely and accurate regional crop-yield estimates are crucial for guiding agronomic practices and policies to improve food security. In this study, a crop-growth model was integrated with time series of remotely sensed data through deep learning (DL) methods to improve the accuracy of regional wheat-yield estimations in Henan Province, China. Firstly, the time series of moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were input into the long short-term memory network (LSTM) model to identify the wheat-growing region, which was further used to estimate wheat areas at the municipal and county levels. Then, the leaf area index (LAI) and grain-yield time series simulated by the Crop Environment REsource Synthesis for Wheat (CERES-Wheat) model were used to train and evaluate the LSTM, one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1-D CNN) and random forest (RF) models, respectively. Finally, an exponential model of the relationship between the field-measured LAI and MODIS NDVI was applied to obtain the regional LAI, which was input into the trained LSTM, 1-D CNN and RF models to estimate wheat yields within the wheat-growing region. The results showed that the linear correlations between the estimated wheat areas and the statistical areas were significant at both the municipal and county levels. The LSTM model provided more accurate estimates of wheat yields, with higher R2 values and lower root mean square error (RMSE) and mean relative error (MRE) values than the 1-D CNN and RF models. The LSTM model has an inherent advantage in capturing phenological information contained in the time series of the MODIS-derived LAI, which is important for satellite-based crop-yield estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting crop maturity dates is important for improving crop harvest planning and grain quality. The prediction of crop maturity dates by assimilating remote sensing information into crop growth model has not been fully explored. In this study, a data assimilation framework incorporating the leaf area index (LAI) product from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) into a World Food Studies (WOFOST) model was proposed to predict the maturity dates of winter wheat in Henan province, China. Minimization of normalized cost function was used to obtain the input parameters of the WOFOST model. The WOFOST model was run with the re-initialized parameter to forecast the maturity dates of winter wheat grid by grid, and THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) was used as forecasting period weather input in the future 15 days (d) for the WOFOST model. The results demonstrated a promising regional maturity date prediction with determination coefficient (R2) of 0.94 and the root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.86 d. The outcomes also showed that the optimal forecasting starting time for Henan was 30 April, corresponding to a stage from anthesis to grain filling. Our study indicated great potential of using data assimilation approaches in winter wheat maturity date prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Timely and accurate forecasting of crop yields is crucial to food security and sustainable development in the agricultural sector. However, winter wheat yield estimation and forecasting on a regional scale still remains challenging. In this study, we established a two-branch deep learning model to predict winter wheat yield in the main producing regions of China at the county level. The first branch of the model was constructed based on the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with inputs from meteorological and remote sensing data. Another branch was constructed using Convolution Neural Networks (CNN) to model static soil features. The model was then trained using the detrended statistical yield data during 1982 to 2015 and evaluated by leave-one-year-out-validation. The evaluation results showed a promising performance of the model with the overall R 2 and RMSE of 0.77 and 721 kg/ha, respectively. We further conducted yield prediction and uncertainty analysis based on the two-branch model and obtained the forecast accuracy in one month prior to harvest of 0.75 and 732 kg/ha. Results also showed that while yield detrending could potentially introduce higher uncertainty, it had the advantage of improving the model performance in yield prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crop yield estimation at a regional scale over a long period of time is of great significance to food security. In past decades, the integration of remote sensing observations and crop growth models has been recognized as a promising approach for crop growth monitoring and yield estimation. Optical remote sensing data are susceptible to cloud and rain, while synthetic aperture radar (SAR) can penetrate through clouds and has all-weather capabilities. This allows for more reliable and consistent crop monitoring and yield estimation in terms of radar sensor data. The aim of this study is to improve the accuracy for winter wheat yield estimation by assimilating time series soil moisture images, which are retrieved by a water cloud model using SAR and optical data as input, into the crop model. In this study, SAR images were acquired by C-band SAR sensors boarded on Sentinel-1 satellites and optical images were obtained from a Sentinel-2 multi-spectral instrument (MSI) for Hengshui city of Hebei province in China. Remote sensing data and ground data were all collected during the main growing season of winter wheat. Both the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), derived from Sentinel-2, and backscattering coefficients and polarimetric indicators, computed from Sentinel-1, were used in the water cloud model to derive time series soil moisture (SM) images. To improve the prediction of crop yields at the field scale, we incorporated remotely sensed soil moisture into the World Food Studies (WOFOST) model using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) algorithm. In general, the trend of soil moisture inversion was consistent with the ground measurements, with the coefficient of determination (R2) equal to 0.45, 0.53, and 0.49, respectively, and RMSE was 9.16%, 7.43%, and 8.53%, respectively, for three observation dates. The winter wheat yield estimation results showed that the assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture improved the correlation of observed and simulated yields (R2 = 0.35; RMSE =934 kg/ha) compared to the situation without data assimilation (R2 = 0.21; RMSE = 1330 kg/ha). Consequently, the results of this study demonstrated the potential and usefulness of assimilating SM retrieved from both Sentinel-1 C-band SAR and Sentinel-2 MSI optical remote sensing data into WOFOST model for winter wheat yield estimation and could also provide a reference for crop yield estimation with data assimilation for other crop types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The crop model data assimilation approach has been acknowledged as an effective tool for monitoring crop growth and estimating yield. However, the choice of assimilated variables and the mismatch in scale between remotely sensed observations and crop model-simulated state variables have various effects on the performance of yield estimation. This study aims to examine the accuracy of crop yield estimation through the joint assimilation of leaf area index (LAI) and soil moisture (SM) and to examine the scale effect between remotely sensed data and crop model simulations. To address these issues, we proposed an improved crop data-model assimilation (CDMA) framework, which integrates LAI and SM, as retrieved from remotely sensed data, into the World Food Studies (WOFOST) model using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approach for winter wheat yield estimation. The results showed that the yield estimation at a 10 m grid size outperformed that at a 500 m grid size, using the same assimilation strategy. Additionally, the winter wheat yield estimation accuracy was higher when using the bivariate data assimilation method (R2 = 0.46, RMSE = 756 kg/ha) compared to the univariate method. In conclusion, our study highlights the advantages of joint assimilating LAI and SM for crop yield estimation and emphasizes the importance of finer spatial resolution in remotely sensed observations for crop yield estimation using the CDMA framework. The proposed approach would help to develop a high-accuracy crop yield monitoring system using optical and SAR retrieved parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has shown potential in quantifying plant responses to environmental changes by which abiotic drivers are dominated. However, SIF is a mixed signal influenced by factors such as leaf physiology, canopy structure, and sun-sensor geometry. Whether the physiological information contained in SIF can better quantify crop disease stresses dominated by biological drivers, and clearly explain the physiological variability of stressed crops, has not yet been sufficiently explored. On this basis, we took winter wheat naturally infected with stripe rust as the research object and conducted a study on the responses of physiological signals and reflectivity spectrum signals to crop disease stress dominated by biological drivers, based on in situ canopy-scale and leaf-scale data. Physiological signals include SIF, SIFyield (normalized by absorbed photosynthetically active radiation), fluorescence yield (ΦF) retrieved by NIRvP (non-physiological components of canopy SIF) and relative fluorescence yield (ΦF-r) retrieved by near-infrared radiance of vegetation (NIRvR). Reflectance spectrum signals include normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRv). At the canopy scale, six signals reached extremely significant correlations (P < 0.001) with disease severity levels (SL) under comprehensive experimental conditions (SL without dividing the experimental samples) and light disease conditions (SL < 20%). The strongest correlation between NDVI and SL (R = 0.69) was observed under the comprehensive experimental conditions, followed by NIRv (R = 0.56), ΦF-r (R = 0.53) and SIF (R = 0.51), and the response of ΦF (R = 0.45) and SIFyield (R = 0.34) to SL was weak. Under lightly diseased conditions, ΦF-r (R = 0.62) showed the strongest response to disease, followed by SIFyield (R = 0.60), SIF (R = 0.56) and NIRv (R = 0.54). The weakest correlation was observed between ΦF and SL (R = 0.51), which also showed a result approximating NDVI (R = 0.52). In the case of a high level of crop disease severity, NDVI showed advantages in disease monitoring. In the early stage of crop diseases, which we pay more attention to, compared with SIF and reflectivity spectrum signals, ΦF-r estimated by the newly proposed 'NIRvR approach' (which uses SIF together with NIRvR (i.e., SIF/ NIRvR) as a substitute for ΦF) showed superior ability to monitor crop physiological stress, and was more sensitive to plant physiological variation. At the leaf scale, the response of SIF to SL was stronger than that of NDVI. These results validate the potential of ΦF-r estimated by the NIRvR approach to monitoring disease stress dominated by biological drivers, thus providing a new research avenue for quantifying crop responses to disease stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate and timely regional crop yield information, particularly field-level yield estimation, is essential for commodity traders and producers in planning production, growing, harvesting, and other interconnected marketing activities. In this study, we propose a novel data assimilation framework. Firstly, we construct the likelihood constraints for a process-based crop growth model based on the previous year's statistical yield and the current year's field observations. Then, we infer the posterior sets of model-simulated time-series LAI and the final yield of winter wheat with a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for each meteorological data grid of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis (v5ERA5). Finally, we estimate the winter wheat yield at the spatial resolution of 10 m by combining Sentinel-2 LAI and the WOFOST model in Hengshui, the prefecture-level city of Hebei province of China. The results show that the proposed framework can estimate the winter wheat yield with a coefficient of determination R2 equal to 0.29 and mean absolute percentage error MAPE equal to 7.20% compared to within-field measurements. However, the agricultural stress that crop growth models cannot quantitatively simulate, such as lodging, can greatly reduce the accuracy of yield estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Garlic and winter wheat are major economic and grain crops in China, and their boundaries have increased substantially in recent decades. Updated and accurate garlic and winter wheat maps are critical for assessing their impacts on society and the environment. Remote sensing imagery can be used to monitor spatial and temporal changes in croplands such as winter wheat and maize. However, to our knowledge, few studies are focusing on garlic area mapping. Here, we proposed a method for coupling active and passive satellite imagery for the identification of both garlic and winter wheat in Northern China. First, we used passive satellite imagery (Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 images) to extract winter crops (garlic and winter wheat) with high accuracy. Second, we applied active satellite imagery (Sentinel-1 images) to distinguish garlic from winter wheat. Third, we generated a map of the garlic and winter wheat by coupling the above two classification results. For the evaluation of classification, the overall accuracy was 95.97%, with a kappa coefficient of 0.94 by eighteen validation quadrats (3 km by 3 km). The user's and producer's accuracies of garlic are 95.83% and 95.85%, respectively; and for the winter wheat, these two accuracies are 97.20% and 97.45%, respectively. This study provides a practical exploration of targeted crop identification in mixed planting areas using multisource remote sensing data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding spatio-temporal changes in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L) phenology and its response to temperature will be vital for adapting to climate change in the coming years. For this purpose, the heading date (HD), maturity date (MD), and length of the reproductive growth period (LRGP) were detected from the remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI) data by a threshold-based method during the harvest year 2003 to 2018 across the North China Plain. The results show that there was high spatial heterogeneity of winter wheat phenology in pixel scale across the whole area, which could not be detected in previous site-based studies. The results also verified that climate warming could explain part of the change in the HD. However, for the LRGP, the potential impact of non-climate effects should be further investigated. This study presents the spatio-temporal changes both in winter wheat phenology and corresponding mean temperature and then analyzes their relationships in pixel scale. Additionally, this study further discusses the potential impact of non-climate effects on the LRGP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]