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In view of the current geopolitical situation, the EU and its Member States are accelerating efforts to reduce their dependency on fossil fuel imports, while simultaneously tackling the climate crisis. With heating in buildings accounting for a large share of the energy consumption in the EU, policies to phase-out fossil fuels for heating and to switch to renewables are key elements. In the context of the proposed actions to phase-out fossil fuels at EU level, this article provides a systematic analysis of current and planned phase-out regulations for fossil fuel boilers in the EU Member States. The paper quantifies the share of energy consumption for heating that is addressed by such regulations and finds that the current regulations only address about 10% of the total fossil energy consumption for heating in the EU. The share increases to almost 30% when considering the planned regulations, reflecting the fact that large energy consumers such as Germany and the Netherlands have announced such regulations. The analysis shows that several Member States with high energy consumption for heating have neither implemented nor announced plans to introduce phase-out regulations for fossil fuel heating. The study concludes that immediate policy action is needed both at EU and at Member State levels. At EU level, the proposed introduction of an end-date for stand-alone fossil fuel boilers needs to be substantiated and implemented into the legislative framework. At the national level, phase-out regulations for fossil fuel boilers need to be expanded both in quantity and scope. [Display omitted] • Systematic analysis of phase-out regulations for fossil fuel boilers in the EU. • Only 10% of the EU fossil energy used for heating is covered by phase-out regulations. • Including planned regulations, the share of heating energy covered by phase-out regulations increases to almost 30%. • Comparison of different approaches for implementing regulations for phasing out fossil fuel boilers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Governments have failed to act at the scale and pace necessary to avert the climate crisis. This paper explores one key constraint on global action to combat climate change: resistance mounted by the fossil fuel industry. The economic losses that the fossil fuel industry is likely to incur as a result of climate stabilization include stranded assets and reduced profits. Using a methodology that emulates the expectations and valuation procedures used by fossil fuel firms, I estimate the magnitude and distribution of wealth losses from stranded assets for the upstream fossil fuel industry (i.e., firms and governments involved in fossil fuel extraction) under 1.8 °C and 1.5 °C climate stabilization scenarios. I also explore the timing of expected future profit losses and compare historical profit margins between fossil fuel and renewable energy firms. Results show that fossil fuel reserves will suffer a devaluation of 37%–50%, amounting to $13-$17 trillion. This implies a strong incentive for fossil fuel producers to continue resisting climate stabilization. Over half (51%–63%) of the reserve devaluation stems not from fuels left in the ground but from price decreases for fuels that will still be extracted and sold during climate stabilization, indicating that even low-cost producers stand to bear large losses. Three-quarters of stranded assets belong to governments, implying formidable political obstacles in nations with nationalized fossil fuel ownership. The profitability analysis reinforces these findings. My results point to strategic demand reduction of fossil fuels as a key strategy for overcoming industry resistance. • Estimates stranded fossil fuel assets in 1.5 °C and 1.8 °C scenarios. • Fossil fuel reserves suffer a devaluation of $13-$17 trillion (37%–50%). • Most stranded assets stem from fuels still produced during climate stabilization. • Three-quarters of stranded assets belong to governments. • Fossil fuels remain significantly more profitable than renewable energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Governments have failed to act at the scale and pace necessary to avert the climate crisis. This paper explores one key constraint on global action to combat climate change: resistance mounted by the fossil fuel industry. The economic losses that the fossil fuel industry is likely to incur as a result of climate stabilization include stranded assets and reduced profits. Using a methodology that emulates the expectations and valuation procedures used by fossil fuel firms, I estimate the magnitude and distribution of wealth losses from stranded assets for the upstream fossil fuel industry (i.e., firms and governments involved in fossil fuel extraction) under 1.8 °C and 1.5 °C climate stabilization scenarios. I also explore the timing of expected future profit losses and compare historical profit margins between fossil fuel and renewable energy firms. Results show that fossil fuel reserves will suffer a devaluation of 37%–50%, amounting to $13-$17 trillion. This implies a strong incentive for fossil fuel producers to continue resisting climate stabilization. Over half (51%–63%) of the reserve devaluation stems not from fuels left in the ground but from price decreases for fuels that will still be extracted and sold during climate stabilization, indicating that even low-cost producers stand to bear large losses. Three-quarters of stranded assets belong to governments, implying formidable political obstacles in nations with nationalized fossil fuel ownership. The profitability analysis reinforces these findings. My results point to strategic demand reduction of fossil fuels as a key strategy for overcoming industry resistance. • Estimates stranded fossil fuel assets in 1.5 °C and 1.8 °C scenarios. • Fossil fuel reserves suffer a devaluation of $13-$17 trillion (37%–50%). • Most stranded assets stem from fuels still produced during climate stabilization. • Three-quarters of stranded assets belong to governments. • Fossil fuels remain significantly more profitable than renewable energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]