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The goal of carbon neutrality provides a new opportunity for the development of renewable energy, especially for wind power. In this paper, 11 regional climate models (RCMs) including CORDEX-EA and PRECIS at two different resolutions are used to evaluate the performance in simulating the spatio-temporal characteristics for wind speed and energy potential from 1981 to 2005. The results show that most models can reproduce the spatio-temporal patterns, and the simulation of the eastern region is better than that of the western region. Besides, most of the higher-resolution models had better simulation performance for spatial-temporal patterns and inter-annual variation. Then, the weighted multi-model ensemble is used to project the changes of the wind speed and the wind power density over China's mainland during the mid-21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario. In future, a decrease in wind speed is projected by most RCMs over China, although some regions, such as the southern parts of China, are projected to have more wind energy potential. The percentage variation of annual mean wind speed will remain in the range of ±4%. The wind power density will decrease in the north and the largest decrease will be found in the northwest. However, the annual mean wind power density in the southeast China will have an increase of 2.21% in the middle of this century. The inter-annual variation of the wind power density in most regions will increase by more than 20%. However, intra-annual variation in the wind power density is likely to decrease in most regions of China, ranging from about −20% to −50%. • A weighted multi-model ensemble was used to project the changes of wind power density over China. • The changes of annual mean wind power density vary in different sub-regions of China, ranging from −3.21% to 2.21%. • The inter-annual variation of the WPD in most regions will increase by more than 20%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to mitigate global climate change and air pollution, the Chinese government has assigned high priority to expanding low-carbon power generation in China. Recent studies have shown that wind power is one of the most promising renewable energy option in China. Although many studies have estimated the generation potential of onshore wind power, their results vary widely from 1783 TWh to 39,000 TWh. Therefore, we examine the different assumptions in these papers and identify three main factors influencing the results. The three influencing factors are: weather data set, land utilisation factor, and wind turbine configuration. For our model-based analysis, we define a reference scenario which is used to compare the results. Our analysis shows using a different weather data set increases the generation potential to roughly 35,000 TWh. This is 54% higher than the generation potential of the reference scenario. The land utilisation factor also has a large influence, ranging between −10% and −51%. The studies' assumptions and data should be subjected to careful scrutiny, as the calculated wind power potentials are widely used to develop decarbonisation strategies for the energy system. • Study results on wind power potentials in China vary from 1783 TWh to 39,000 TWh • Influencing factors: weather data set, land utilisation, and wind turbine configuration. • Model-based sensitivity analysis with nine scenario settings. • Chosen weather data set has the highest impact on the calculated results with a variation of 54%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]