Search

Today the global energy industry is undergoing major changes shifting towards the green growth and circular economy solutions. The paper offers the outcomes of the foresight study of the Russian renewable energy sector and focuses on three areas: converting solar energy into electricity; converting wind energy into electricity; and converting biomass into thermal energy and electricity. The goal of the study was to foresee and agree on the visionary future for the nascent renewable energy sector in the country, as well as to provide the scientifically justified grounds for government and corporate decision-makers. The research is based on a mixture of methods: bibliometric analysis and text mining, literature review, expert surveys and interviews, workshops, STEEPV analysis of trends, scenario analysis, and applied policy analysis. As a result of the study, major trends and uncertainties that may affect the Russian and global renewable energy sector in the next 15–20 years were identified. Other results include the scenarios for Russia's renewable energy sector that are proposed together with recommendations for the Russian companies and public authorities. The study's policy and market implications go beyond Russia: the outcomes may be useful for similar studies, early stage renewable energy policy planning and investment decision. • The foresight study of the Russian renewable energy sector is presented. • The focus is on solar, wind and biomass energy production until 2035. • Four scenarios of the Russian renewable energy sector are discussed. • Recommendations may be used in research, policy planning and investment decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ambitious policy targets together with current and projected high growth rates indicate that future power systems will likely show substantially increased generation from renewable energy sources. A large share will come from the variable renewable energy (VRE) sources wind and solar photovoltaics (PV); however, integrating wind and solar causes challenges for existing power systems. In this paper we analyze three major integration challenges related to the structural matching of demand with the supply of wind and solar power: low capacity credit, reduced utilization of dispatchable plants, and over-produced generation. Based on residual load duration curves we define corresponding challenge variables and estimate their dependence on region (US Indiana and Germany), penetration and mix of wind and solar generation. Results show that the impacts of increasing wind and solar shares can become substantial, and increase with penetration, independently of mix and region. Solar PV at low penetrations is much easier to integrate in many areas of the US than in Germany; however, some impacts (e.g. over-production) increase significantly with higher shares. For wind power, the impacts increase rather moderately and are fairly similar in US Indiana and Germany. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Successful technological innovation frameworks are based on synergistic packages of technology-push and demand-pull measures. As the massive deployment of premature renewable energy technologies risks becoming very expensive, the debate on the optimal trajectory of renewable technologies should explicitly consider the balance between deployment incentives and R&D efforts. This paper explores this balance regarding wind and PV technology support in Europe. Based on rather conservative estimates, we calculate future deployment costs and compare these figures to the current public investments in PV and wind R&D. We find that, today, for each Euro spent on R&D to develop future technologies, 35 to 41 Euros are spent on the deployment of existing technologies. Furthermore, private PV and wind technology companies tend to underinvest in R&D for various reasons. In an alternative scenario, we assess the optimal R&D efforts for the PV and wind sectors based on a 7% R&D-to-sales benchmark that is typical for engineering sectors. If public R&D efforts would increase according to this benchmark, and hence compensate for the private underinvestments in R&D, pull/push ratios between 6 and 8 could be achieved. This leads us to conclude that the current balance between deployment and R&D is far from optimal. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The intensity of market penetration and hence the relevance of clean energy technologies in mitigating climate change will greatly depend on their cost-effectiveness. This paper discusses the economic and policy aspects of speeding up the market of these technologies to reach cost parity. A combination of historical energy market dynamics, technology diffusion and endogenous learning models were employed in the analyses. Starting from giving a preferential position to emerging renewable energy technologies in the energy and climate policy, which also means securing adequate financial resources for their deployment, could lead in the base scenario to a full-cost breakthrough of wind power around 2027 and of photovoltaics in 2032. The combined global market share of renewable electricity in 2050 could reach 62% of all electricity (now 19%) of which wind and solar power alone could account for almost two-thirds corresponding to a carbon saving in the range of 8–16 GtCO2. However, if the new technologies were downgraded in the energy and climate policy context, the combined impact of solar and wind could remain at no less than 11% which would marginalize these technologies in the fight against climate change. The estimates for financial support to achieve cost parity were very sensitive to the assumptions of the input parameters: in the base case the extra costs or learning investments for solar power were €1432 billion and for wind power €327 billion, but with more conservative input data these values could grow manifold. On the other hand, considering the potentially cheaper electricity from new technologies above the cost parity point and putting a price on carbon could result in a positive yield from public support instead of it being regarded merely as unnecessary spending. The findings stress the necessity of long-term policies and strong commercialization strategies to bring the new energy technologies to breakeven point, but also highlight the complexity of assessing the true costs of making new energy technologies fully competitive. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]