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Background and objective Elevated driving pressure (ΔP) may be associated with increased risk of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in patients admitted via the emergency department and with post-operative pulmonary complications in surgical patients. This study investigated the association of higher ΔP with the onset of ARDS in a high-risk, intensive care unit (ICU) population. Methods This is a secondary analysis of a prospective multicentre observational study. Data for this ancillary study were obtained from intubated adult patients with at least one ARDS risk factor upon ICU admission enrolled in a previous multicentre observational study. Patients were followed up for the development of ARDS within 7 days (primary outcome). Univariate and multivariate analyses tested the association between ΔP (measured at ICU admission (baseline) or 24 h later (day 1)) and the development of ARDS. Results A total of 221 patients were included in this study, among whom 34 (15%) developed ARDS within 7 days. These patients had higher baseline ΔP than those who did not (mean ± SD: 12.5 ± 3.1 vs 9.8 ± 3.4 cm H2 O, respectively, P = 0.0001). The association between baseline ΔP and the risk of developing ARDS was robust to adjustment for baseline tidal volume, positive-end expiratory pressure, illness severity, serum lactate and sepsis, pneumonia, severe trauma and shock as primary ARDS risk factors (odds ratio: 1.20; 95% CI: 1.03-1.41; P = 0.02). The same results were found with day 1 ΔP. Conclusion Among at-risk ICU patients, higher ΔP may identify those who are more likely to develop ARDS.