1. Predicting the probability of survival with mild or moderate neurological dysfunction after in-hospital cardiopulmonary arrest: The GO-FAR 2 score
- Author
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Paul Chan, Thuy Nhu Thai, Mark H. Ebell, and Naomi George
- Subjects
Male ,Resuscitation ,medicine.medical_specialty ,medicine.medical_treatment ,030204 cardiovascular system & hematology ,Emergency Nursing ,Severity of Illness Index ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Predictive Value of Tests ,Risk Factors ,Internal medicine ,Outcome Assessment, Health Care ,Humans ,Medicine ,Hospital Mortality ,Cardiopulmonary resuscitation ,Good outcome ,Aged ,Patient factors ,Neurologic Examination ,Univariate analysis ,business.industry ,Reproducibility of Results ,030208 emergency & critical care medicine ,Prognosis ,Survival Analysis ,Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation ,United States ,Heart Arrest ,Hospitalization ,Multivariate logistic regression model ,Emergency Medicine ,Neurological dysfunction ,Female ,Nervous System Diseases ,Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine ,business ,Probability of survival - Abstract
The Good Outcome Following Attempted Resuscitation (GO-FAR) Score uses pre-arrest factors to predict survival after In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest (IHCA) with minimal neurological dysfunction, (cerebral performance category (CPC) ≤1). Moderate neurological dysfunction (CPC ≤2) may be a more acceptable outcome.To predict survival after IHCA with mild or moderate neurological dysfunction based on pre-arrest factors.52,468 patients with IHCA from 2012-2017. Data was divided into training (44%), testing (22%), and validation (34%) sets. Univariate analysis was used to identify variables with3% difference in survival with CPC ≤2. These variables carried forward to the multivariate logistic regression model. The most parsimonious model that best classified patients as having a very poor (≤5%), below average (≤10%), average (11%-30%), or above average (30%) likelihood of survival with CPC ≤2 was chosen.Age85, admission CPC2, and non-surgical admission were strongly association with poor survival (-12.1%, -14.4%, and -18%, respectively). Nine variables were included in the logistic regression analysis. The final updated model, GO FAR 2, categorized 6.2% of patients with a very poor predicted survival, 24.8% of patients with a below average predicted survival, and 11.3% with above average predicted survival. The observed survival among those with very poor predicted survival was 4.5%.The GO FAR 2 score provides clinicians with a prognostic estimate of the likelihood of a good outcome after IHCA based on pre-arrest patient factors. Future research is required to validate the GO-FAR 2 score.
- Published
- 2020
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