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Objectives To assess the ability of baseline serum biomarkers to predict disease activity and remission status in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) at 18-year follow-up (FU) in a population-based setting.Methods Clinical data and serum levels of inflammatory biomarkers were assessed in the longitudinal population-based Nordic JIA cohort study at baseline and at 18-year FU. A panel of 16 inflammatory biomarkers was determined by multiplexed bead array assay. We estimated both univariate and multivariate logistic regression models on binary outcomes of disease activity and remission with baseline variables as explanatory variables.Results Out of 349 patients eligible for the Nordic JIA cohort study, 236 (68%) had available serum samples at baseline. We measured significantly higher serum levels of interleukin 1β (IL-1β), IL-6, IL-12p70, IL-13, MMP-3, S100A9 and S100A12 at baseline in patients with active disease at 18-year FU than in patients with inactive disease. Computing receiver operating characteristics illustrating the area under the curve (AUC), we compared a conventional prediction model (gender, age, joint counts, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, C reactive protein) with an extended model that also incorporated the 16 baseline biomarkers. Biomarker addition significantly improved the ability of the model to predict activity/inactivity at the 18-year FU, as evidenced by an increase in the AUC from 0.59 to 0.80 (p=0.02). Multiple regression analysis revealed that S100A9 was the strongest predictor of inactive disease 18 years after disease onset.Conclusion Biomarkers indicating inflammation at baseline have the potential to improve evaluation of disease activity and prediction of long-term outcomes.

Objectives To identify long-term disease activity trajectories from childhood to adulthood by using the clinical Juvenile Arthritis Disease Activity Score (cJADAS10) in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Second, to evaluate the contribution of the cJADAS10 components and explore characteristics associated with active disease at the 18-year follow-up.Methods Patients with onset of JIA in 1997–2000 were followed for 18 years in the population-based Nordic JIA cohort. We used a discrete mixture model for longitudinal clustering of the cJADAS10 and its components. We assessed factors potentially associated with higher scores on the patient’s global assessment of well-being (PaGA) by hierarchical clustering and correlation analysis.Results Four disease activity trajectories were identified based on the cJADAS10 components among 427 patients. In trajectory-group 2, the PaGA and the physician’s global assessment of disease activity (PhGA) increased significantly during the course, but not the active joint count. The increase in the PaGA was significantly higher than the increases in the PhGA and the active joint count (p

Background Despite the worldwide increasing request of education on paediatric musculoskeletal ultrasound (PedMSUS), content, conduct and format of PedMSUS courses have never been internationally agreed.Objectives To produce educational procedures for the conduct, content and format of EULAR/PReS PedMSUS courses.Methods After a systemic literature review and expert opinion collection, a panel of items for the development of procedures on PedMSUS courses was identified. Agreement on the items was assessed through Delphi surveys among a taskforce of 24 members, which included 18 experts in PedMSUS (8 rheumatologists, 1 radiologist, 9 paediatric rheumatologists), 1 methodologist and rheumatologist expert in MSUS, 2 patient research partners, 1 health professional in rheumatology and 2 EMEUNET/EMERGE members, from 8 different European countries. Each item was assessed through a 5-point Likert scale (0, full disagreement; 5, full agreement); agreement was reached for >75% of answers rating 4–5. All items with agreement were included in the preliminary core set of educational procedures, which underwent external assessment by a broader Consensus group (Faculty and Tutors of previous EULAR PedMSUS courses and PReS Imaging Working Party members), through Delphi survey.Results Two Delphi surveys produced the preliminary core set of procedures for basic, intermediate, advanced and teach-the-teachers (TTT) PedMSUS courses. A Delphi survey within the Consensus group produced agreement on the proposed procedures.Conclusions Shared EULAR/PReS procedures for the conduct, content and format of basic, intermediate, advanced and TTT PedMSUS courses were identified on international basis.