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Climatic and geographic factors characterizing local conditions, as well as the ecological state of the external environment, have a direct effect on human health, morbidity, and life expectancy. The paper considers the basic concepts of medical ecology, a pathogenetic role of environmental atmospheric pollution in the development of environmentally induced and environmentally dependent diseases associated with exposure to meteorological factors. In addition to the major hygienic risk factors affecting the public health (a level of air, water, and soil pollution), the levels of acoustic and electromagnetic background, the type of human nutrition, architectural and planning conditions of human life are of significant importance. Global climate warming causes numerous environmental changes, primarily an increase in surface air temperature, which in turn entails global changes in weather conditions that lead to various weather anomalies. Human health is directly dependent on environmental conditions and a degree of adaptation to them. The paper highlights the issues of diagnosing environmentally induced diseases and measures to counteract their spread. Based on the system diagnosis using physiological indicators of human health and the integration of the adaptation and nosological approaches, a hardware-software complex has been developed and introduced into medical practice. Corrective technologies of regenerative medicine that are used for ecologically dependent pathologies are described. Their application in the process of the complex sanatorium and resort treatment is most effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial and temporal variability of the main climatic indicators on the territory of the Volga Federal District in the 20th–21st centuries is considered. A general increasing trend in air temperature is revealed, and a heterogeneous pattern of precipitation changes is shown. The temperature variations until the end of the 21st century are analyzed on the example of Kazan using 40 CMIP6 climate models for four anthropogenic scenarios. In the paper, there is an assessment of the dynamics of agroclimatic resources on the territory of the Volga Federal District: the duration of the growing season, the sum of positive temperatures, total precipitation, and photosynthetic radiation. A correlation has been found between the temperature fluctuations in the region and the atmospheric circulation indices (NAO, AO, SCAND, and EAWR). For the territory of Tatarstan, a degree of aridity and waterlogging is evaluated using the agroclimatic indices: the Budyko's dryness index, the Selyaninov's hydrothermal coefficient, the Sapozhnikova's moisture index. It is shown that there is a tendency toward an increase in the duration of the growing season, its heat supply and aridity in the region in summer. A statistical estimation of the dependence of spring wheat yield on the agroclimatic indices on the territory of the Republic of Tatarstan is given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper reveals the causes and consequences of unfavorable conditions for overwintering of winter grain crops on the example of the Moscow region. Unstable winter periods in the recent decades resulting from climate change have often led to the damage or loss of winter grain crops (winter wheat, winter rye, and triticale). Using the difference integral curve of average annual temperatures for the entire year, the growing season (May–September), and the period from September to April, including the winter season, it is shown that warm years and warm seasons have been generally observed since 1987. The sum of negative temperatures, snow depth, frost depth, the number of days with snow cover, the duration of cold periods with air temperatures below 0, –5, –10°C, etc. are analyzed for assessment of the changes in overwintering conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the paper, the frequency and spatial distribution of atmospheric and hydrological droughts over the territory of Belarus in 1945–2020 is assessed. Aridity is evaluated using the standardized precipitation and streamflow indices (SPI and SSFI). Trends in monthly total precipitation are determined, the features of the streamflow formation during the open-channel period are revealed. The frequency of anticyclones that determines hydrometeorological conditions on the territory of Belarus is calculated. The statistically significant increase in the number of the days with anticyclonic weather over the country during the warm season is found. The increasing frequency of dry conditions in summer months against the background of a rise in the precipitation intensity is highlighted. A simultaneous increase in the frequency of very-low-flow periods on rivers and an increase in the height of warm rainfall floods in some river basins are revealed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The overview of papers dealing with the analysis of current and future climate change on the territory of Russia and their impact on the crop productivity is presented. Using the reanalysis data for 1950–2020, trends in air temperature and precipitation are estimated for different regions of Russia. A correlation was found between changes in temperature and atmospheric circulation indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transition to a new reference period of 1991–2020 requires updating the estimates of agroclimatic resources in agricultural regions. The paper summarizes the results of the annual monitoring of agroclimatic conditions over 1961–1990 and 1991–2020 obtained by both the statistical analysis and the Climate–Soil–Yield simulation system and provides their comparative evaluation. It has been noted that along with growing aridity of the most fertile areas of the steppe and forest-steppe zones, there is an almost universal growth of spring precipitation, which compensates to some extent the negative impact of high summer temperatures on the yield. A significant decrease in the climate-driven productivity of spring wheat from the period of 1961–1990 to the new reference period of 1991–2020 has been revealed for the main grain-producing regions. Estimates of productivity trends for major grain crops, spring and winter wheat, are given in connection with climate change and the development of agricultural technologies. Estimates of changes in the wintering indices and sown areas for winter wheat are also given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean fruit fly is a significant agroclimatic threat to the fruit production. It can damage up to 80–100% of fruits on 45–78% of agricultural land in some countries. The modern climatic range of the pest is analyzed in the present paper using computational data generated by the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory regional climate model and the global climate model of Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics. The species requirements for climate conditions are: the sum of active temperatures (a threshold is 10°C) above 2700°C; monthly mean temperatures for December–February are positive; monthly precipitation totals in December–February exceed 13 mm. In Russia, such conditions are observed on the Black Sea coast and in a small part of the southern Caspian lowland. The assessment of changes in the climatic range of the pest in 2050–2059 versus 1990–1999 under the RCP8.5 scenario showed the expansion of the climatically suitable territory. The territory will almost completely include such traditional fruit growing regions as the Krasnodar krai, the Republic of Crimea, and the Republic of Adygea. Strict quarantine measures and early resource allocation that quickly suppresses infestations of the Mediterranean fruit fly may be proposed as adaptation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors explore the trends in the human health risks caused by air pollution and changing levels of weather and climate comfort on the territory of Russia in 2020–2050 under two climate change scenarios. Generally, the dynamics of risks is expected to be moderate. It will presumably be characterized by inter-scenario variability and dispersion by the country's climate zones. In certain areas, primarily in Siberia, very noticeable trends have been revealed. The paper shows a need for additional attention when planning the measures of adaptation to climate change in southern and central regions of European Russia, most of Western Siberia, the Magadan oblast and Kamchatka. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents a physically based mathematical model of the key hydrophysical processes of runoff formation at a catchment point over a long-term period. The model describes the freezing and thawing of soil, the formation and melting of the snow cover, the migration of moisture to the freezing front and the infiltration of rain and melt moisture, evaporation from snow, soil cover, vegetation, and water surface. Average daily values of meteorological parameters are used as initial information for mathematical modeling. The relevance of the study is caused by a need to reveal the main links between the processes of vertical heat and moisture exchange in soil and the environmental factors that determine their climate-driven nature. Using observational data from water balance stations, numerical experiments and an analysis of the influence of long-term variability of the key meteorological factors on evaporation from the land and water surface and on vertical moisture flows in soil were carried out. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, much attention has been paid to climate change issues. Regional climate change can be manifested in the changes in the main climate-forming factors, including wind. Studying the climatic characteristics of wind over the Caspian Sea is considered the most important task, since wind affects the variability of currents, the formation of hydrological and hydrochemical processes, and the information about the wind regime is necessary for the operation of marine organizations, the specifics of which is the dependence of all stationary and mobile objects in the sea on hydrometeorological conditions. The paper presents the analysis of the frequency of wind directions and wind speeds for individual months, seasons, years, and different gradations of wind speed. For the climatic characteristics of wind speed for consecutive 30-year periods, the comparative analysis of changes in climatological normals is carried out, and wind characteristic deviations relative to the standard reference period are revealed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents the dynamics of the hydrothermal coefficients characterizing agroclimatic resources on the territory of Siberia within the coordinates of 50°–65° N, 60°–120° E during modern climate change. The intensity, frequency, and duration of adverse weather phenomena for agriculture (the atmospheric droughts and moisture excess conditions) are analyzed. The Ped' drought index () and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) calculated from the data of 134 weather stations and the ERA5 reanalysis are used as an indicator. In Eastern Siberia and in the west of the analyzed territory, there is an increase in aridity (a trend is 0.2–0.5 per decade). Northern regions of Kazakhstan, the Sayan Mountains, and the West Siberian Plain were characterized by a relative stability of hydrothermal conditions in 1950–2020 (statistically significant changes are not revealed). A direct linear dependence of hydrothermal conditions on large-scale circulation processes have been not detected for most cases. The greatest number of statistically significant correlation coefficients has been obtained for the drought index and the SCAND (Scandinavia teleconnection pattern) index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents the results of studying the influence of modern agrometeorological conditions on the yield of different groups of grain crops in the municipal districts of the Saratov oblast. The climatic trends of the recent two decades are analyzed for five weather stations (Khvalynsk, Balashov, Saratov, Ershov, and Aleksandrov Gai). For the Saratov weather station, a longer period (1941–2022) is analyzed. There is an increase in the heat availability and aridity of the territory. The analysis of the dynamics of the crop yield distribution and variability has shown that the most favorable conditions of crop cultivation are formed in the Balashov municipal district. Operational forecast models of the maximum and minimum productivity of winter wheat are developed, which makes it possible to predict a yield with a monthly lead time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper considers the method for determining the point of change (the disturbance of stationarity) in the time series of hydrometeorological parameters characterized by a sequential change in stationary states of a random process. The method is based on the Bayesian approach to obtaining the distribution of the change point, which is generalized for a case of correlated sequences with non-Gaussian marginal distribution laws. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents the results of an analysis of the spatial distribution of forest fires and their causes in the forest areas of Central Siberia in 1987–2020. An increase in the share of fires from lightning discharges has been recorded ( , ). A spatiotemporal extrapolation of long-term meteorological data series has been performed. An increase in thunderstorm activity by at least 30% relative to the average annual norm for the end of the 20th century has been revealed for the entire territory of Central Siberia. It is shown that if current trends are maintained until 2100, the number of lightning discharges during the fire season (March–September) will determine up to 10–40% increase in the number of fires caused by lightning. Thunderstorm activity can be one of the significant factors in the toughening of fire regimes in Central Siberia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper is dedicated to the 90th birthday of the academician G.I. Marchuk, the eminent scientist who made an outstanding contribution to the development of the numerical methods of weather forecasting and climate theory. Made is an attempt to reflect on his contribution to this branch of science in the context of the continious chain of fundamental researches, i.e., to consider the problem in the historical retrospective. Though the fundamental character of one or another research is always subjective to a certain extent, in the author's opinion, the majority of considered studies is generally highly appreciated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the long-term variability of frequency of atmospheric blockings over Western Siberia in 1948-2015 based on the data of three reanalysis projects. We revealed a decreasing blocking frequency for eight of twelve months. However, since the estimated trends of blocking frequency are small comparing to the significant amplitude of interannual variations, we proposed to divide the entire studied period into several quasi-decadal intervals that differ both in the amplitude of interannual fluctuations of blocking frequency and in trends. The effect of Western Siberian blockings imposed on synoptic and climatic variability of meteorological parameters in Asia was studied. The study demonstrated that in summer teleconnection patterns in temperature and precipitation fields are of the close sign-alternating structure; this indirectly indicates that in Western Siberia the blocking is a part of a large-scale wave mechanism. Like the Ural blockings, the blockings occurring over Western Siberia affect meteorological characteristics within the East Asian monsoon area. In winter time they contribute to lower surface temperature and decreased precipitation in Southeast Asia. In summer during blocking events over Western Siberia, precipitation increases in the East Asian monsoon area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents the results of the analysis of current changes in the annual, seasonal, and monthly inflow of river water to Lake Baikal. A statistically significant increase in the inflow from November to March due to climate change is revealed. The dependence of the annual water level rise in the lake on the inflow is investigated. The pollution of the lake is assessed using the hydrochemical and hydrobiological parameters for the areas being under the influence of the most intensive anthropogenic impact. The background pollution in the reserves on the northeastern coast of the lake is also considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The results of wind wave hindcast for the Caspian Sea for the period of 1979-2017 are presented. The WAVEWATCHIII wave model and wind forcing from the NCEP/CFSR reanalysis are used. The modeling is performed on the unstructured grid with the spacing to 1 km in the coastal zone. Mean and extreme values of wave height, length, and period are provided. It is shown that the maximum height of waves of 3% probability of exceedance is 11.7 m. The interannual variability of wave parameters is analyzed. No unambiguous trend towards increase or decrease in the storm activity was revealed over the hindcasting period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper analyzes the results ofthe numerical experiment aiming at the reconstruction of climate ofthe penultimate (Eemian) interglacial (last interglacial, LIG) obtained using the Earth system model developed in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of RAS. Orbital parameters were set with the periodicity of one thousand years and were further interpolated with the time step of 100 years. Assuming that during the LIG the concentrations of greenhouse gases were not very much different from the preindustrial values, this potential forcing was neglected. The climatic block of the ESM was called every 100 model years to foltow changes in orbital forcmg. The sub-models of ice sheets were asynchronously coupled to the sub-models of the atmosphere and the ocean with the ratio of model years as 100 to 1. Obtained anomaly (Eemian versus preindustrial) fields of surface air temperature generally correspond to the results of the earlier studies. Changes in the structure of the global atmospheric circulation resulted in the transformation ofthe precipitation field in some world regions. In particular, precipitation growth in North Africa was the reason for the radical change of landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the impact of altered land use on urban flooding in Northwest Indiana over a 10-year time span between 1992 and 2001. The studied watershed, the Great Calumet basin, is located on the south shore of Lake Michigan, which is well known as a highly industrialized area. The flood peaks and the time-to-peak values are used to analyze the flooding problems of the study area. The study uses a Hydrologic Engineering Center for Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model to explore the change in land use represented by Curve Number (CN). The model parameters are calibrated using archived raintall data available in National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and United States Geological Survey (USGS) Instantaneous Data Archive (IDA). All four simulations show that the peak flow of simulated hydrographs in the terrain conditions of 2001 is by 22% higher than that in the terrain of 1992. The paper concludes with the results of simulation analyses that can be used to remedy flooding problems in the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study analyzes the recently summarized data on surface air temperature in the east of North America, in Western and Eastern Europe, and in India before and after the Tambora volcano eruption occurred in Indonesia in 1815. The well-known fact is proved that no cooling occurred after the Tambora eruption in the east of Europe and in India. It is found that the insignificant (at the decadal timescale) cooling was observed in all analyzed regions: it started earlier than the Tambora eruption and than the stronger eruption of another volcano in 1809. The paper demonstrates that it is impossible to reveal cause-effect relations between the general cooling and the eruption of the above volcanoes based on the available data on surface air temperature. Cold snaps that follow the later volcanic eruptions were identified by meteorologists using the data of the whole network of meteorological observations established in the second half of the 19th century. However, these cold snaps cannot be detected using data on surface air temperature only. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents the simulation outputs of changes of hydrological characteristics of reservoirs of different kind (changes in residence time and in water column stratification) in case of forecast warming according to the most adverse scenario for Moscow water supply, when annual flow and springflood flow depth decrease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presented is a description of the river flow and content of hardly (humic substances) and easily (the final product is methane) oxidizable organic matter in it in the water of lower reaches of the Don, Severskii Donets, and Mius rivers in 1995-2009. Considered are the climate change effects in the river catchment on the content of dissolved organic matter in the river flow of estuaries and the change in species composition and volumes of primary production in the coastal waters of seas in arid zones. The present paper is a part of the theoretical basis considering the 'climate-land-water' relationships for the further development of practical techniques in the field of ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is revealed that there was a significant increase in the Bowen ratio in the Volga, Southern, and North Caucasian federal districts in the second half of the 20th century–beginning of the 21st century. This indicates a strengthening of sensible heat flux and a reduction of latent heat flux in the heat and moisture balance. These changes are caused by a significant temperature rise, especially in the south of European Russia, with a regional decrease in precipitation. The Bowen ratio is inversely proportional to precipitation and NDVI and directly proportional to temperature. In the steppe zone represented by the Volga, Southern, and North Caucasian federal districts the long periods of predominance of the Bowen ratio anomalies of a certain sign can be distinguished for June and July: the positive ones in the 1950s and until the mid-1960s, the negative ones after that until the early 2000s, and the positive ones since the middle of the first decade of the 21st century. Since the second decade of the 21st century, the positive anomalies of the Bowen ratio have become more frequent in some years and have exceeded the standard deviation. An increase in the contribution of heat to the heat and moisture exchange balance led to a degradation of vegetation conditions in the Volga, Southern, and North Caucasus federal districts. In the south of the Siberian Federal District, the fluctuation of the Bowen ratio anomalies is less pronounced than in European Russia, which suggests some stability of heat and moisture supply in summer over the past 70 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The possibility of applying remote sensing data to the identification and monitoring of desertification is demonstrated. The present study includes the investigation of desertification of the territory of Mongolia by the analysis of vegetation dynamics over the period from 1982 to 2016 and its interrelation with climatic, natural, and anthropogenic components. It is found that the main contribution to the vegetation degradation in Mongolia was made by precipitation decrease and air temperature rise. The indirect factors such as livestock, land cultivation, and wildfires increased the influence of climatic factors and gave impetus to the desertification in some arid and semiarid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water pollution in the river mouths in the northern European part of Russia has been assessed using chemical parameters, and the pollution for the period of 2012–2020 has been characterized. Water pollution in the mouths of the Onega, Northern Dvina, Mezen, and Pechora rivers has been analyzed in relation to the aggregate anthropogenic and regional natural characteristics. The results make it possible to reveal trends towards either a reduction or an increase in water pollution caused by the decrease in the wastewater discharge and changes in rivers water content under conditions of current changes in the climate of the northern European part of Russia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, instrument-measured evaporation and conventional meteorological observations from 80 stations in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2020 were collected. Using these data, methods such as linear trend estimation, cumulative anomaly, multiple linear regression, and Morlet wavelet analysis were employed to analyze the changes of instrument-measured evaporation annually and seasonally in Heilongjiang Province. Additionally, we analyzed its response to climate change. The results showed that from 1961 to 2020, annual pan evaporation in Heilongjiang Province showed a significant downward trend, decreasing at 10.5 mm per decade. Evaporation decreased significantly in spring, while the magnitude of this decrease in summer and autumn was relatively small, and evaporation increased significantly in winter. In the periodic change, annual and seasonal evaporation have significant periods on short time scales Among them, and mainly have a short period of 3–4 years, has short periods of about 3 years and 6 years, mainly has short periods of 2 years and 3 years, and mainly has short periods of about 4 years. The geographical correlation of evaporation was significant, with evaporation decreasing as latitude, longitude and altitude increased. Additionally, we found that changes in annual and seasonal pan evaporation were positively correlated to changes in average temperature, hours of sunshine, and wind speed, and negatively correlated to changes relative humidity. Our analysis indicates that a significant decrease in wind speed and hours of sunshine is the dominant factor leading to the decrease in evaporation throughout the year as well as in spring, summer and autumn, while higher temperatures and lower relative humidity may lead to a significant increase in evaporation in winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, monthly meteorological parameters of temperature, precipitation, and wind speed recorded at 104 synoptic weather stations scattered across Iran were analyzed to construct annual time series of the meteorological data for a 30-year period (1988–2017) using the Mann–Kendall test and the Sen's slope estimator. Based on the de Martonne aridity index () classification, Iran's climate is mostly categorized as dry and semi-dry. The results indicated annual temperature significantly increased at about 61% of stations and annual precipitation significantly decreased at 21% of stations (at the 95% and 99% significance level). The decline in precipitation occurred in mostly the dry (27%) and semi-dry (21%) regions of Iran. Approximately half of the stations experienced significant increases in wind speed with arid areas experiencing broadest increase. Prediction of future impacts of climate change is needed for this region to mitigate negative effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitative estimates of changes in wind energy resources in the Arctic were obtained using the RCA4 regional climate model under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios for 2006–2099. The wind power density proportional to cubic wind speed was analyzed. The procedure for the model near-surface wind speed bias correction using ERA5 data as a reference with subsequent extrapolation of wind speed to the turbine height was applied to estimate the wind power density (WPD). According to the RCA4 simulations for the 21st century under both anthropogenic forcing scenarios, a noticeable increase in the WPD was noted, in particular, over the Barents, Kara, and Chukchi seas in winter. In summer, a general increase in the WPD is manifested over the Arctic Ocean. The changes are more significant under the RCP8.5 scenario with high anthropogenic forcing for the 21st century. According to model projections, an increase in the interdaily WPD variations does not generally lead to the deviations of wind speed to the values at which the operation of wind generators is unfeasible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On the basis of corrected Landsat data for 2013–2017, a modern assessment of aufeis in the Indigirka River basin and its partial catchments with an area of 1830 to 305000 km2 was conducted. The potential contribution of the aufeis flow to the formation of the water balance of rivers during various phases of hydrological regime was calculated. During the phase of the maximum development, the aufeis area of partial catchments ranges from 0.30 to 1.49%, reaching 0.54% of the total area of the Indigirka River basin. The aufeis resources (water content in aufeis) of the Indigirka River basin are 10.0 mm of the runoff level or in total 3.5 km3. For individual rivers, the aufeis flow can reach 5–28 mm per year, which makes up 2.6 to 20.8% (an average is 8.1%) of river runoff. On average, water resources stored in aufeis make up 235% of the winter river flow (135% for the Indigirka River basin). The contribution of the aufeis flow during the spring flood can reach 39% and is 13.7% in the outlet of the Indigirka River basin. The ambiguous impact of climate change on aufeis (reducing their area and increasing their number) requires further detailed studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The regional climate changes in the arid regions in the south of West Siberia for the period of 1936-2010 are estimated by means of the statistical analysis of the series of climatic parameters and complex hydrothermal indices. Revealed is the close correlation between the above characteristics. The periodicity of variations of some climatic parameters and corresponding indices amounting to 8-12 years on average is revealed using the Welch's method of spectral analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considered are the results of the investigation of climatic fluctuations, supercentury climate trend, and 30-year trends in modern Moscow based on the time series of monthly mean values of air temperature for 1879-2010. The data of air temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere for the same period were used for the comparison. The computation of characteristics was carried out using the method of singular spectral analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compared are the estimates or regional changes in temperature and precipitation on the territory of Russia for two methods of the spatial averaging of meteorological station data, one of which is adapted to the sparse observational network and takes account of the station weights proportional to the area of their influence. Considered are several variants of the zoning with the separation of the different number of regions. Formulated is a criterion of the zoning adequacy to the problem of the revelation and analysis of regional climate changes. Estimated is the representativeness of the network of observations of temperature and precipitation for separate regions. Presented are the estimates of regional trends of air temperature and precipitation for the century interval and for the recent decades obtained on the basis of the full archive of available data for the zoning attached to the administrative division of the Russian Federation into the federal districts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The results are presented of the statistical analysis of correspondence between the model simulations and observations of temperature changes on the territory of Russia. Three model ensembles are considered, differing in the level of taking account of the impact of external forcings on the climate system of the Earth. For each of them, the statistical correspondence is estimated between the observed surface air temperature variations in the second half of the 20th century and at the beginning of the 21st century and model simulations taking account of the natural variability typical of the climate system. The analysis demonstrated that, in spite of the uncertainties associated with the differences in the representation of anthropogenic and natural external forcings on the climate in model simulations as well as with the imperfection of climate models and with internal variability of the climate system, the model experiments enable to obtain the relevant information both on the temporal evolution of temperature changes on the territory of Russia and on their spatial peculiarities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developed are the axiomatics and criteria for estimating the critical levels of climate change influence on the natural terrestrial ecosystems based on the revelation of key climate-dependent environmental elements and model analysis of their variations. Developed is an empirical statistical vegetation model for the territory of Russia considering 15 vegetation zones including five ones in the permafrost zone. The model was used to estimate the proximity of the climate impact on the natural terrestrial ecosystems to the critical level for several climate projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatiotemporal variability of surface air temperature and precipitation in Russia is considered using the data from 1251 stations for two periods: 1976–2019 and 2001–2019. Main attention is paid to the analysis of trends in the above characteristics, which made it possible to estimate the scale of climate warming in recent decades. The connection between the atmospheric circulation indices (NAO, AO, EAWR, SCAND) and temperature fluctuations in the European part of Russia is revealed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The changes in the thermal regime of the Upper Kolyma rivers in the permafrost zone in 1981–2010 are discussed. Over the recent three decades the normals of the dates of the springtime 0.2°C water temperature crossing have shifted by 3–13 days earlier due to the climate warming. Average long-term water temperatures in the first half of summer increased by 1.4–1.6°C. In autumn, the 0.2°C crossing occurs on average by 9 days later. This agrees with an increase in air temperature normals. However, in the second half of the warm period, annual mean water temperatures dropped by 0.7–1.5°C. Such abnormal response to climate change is caused by the involvement of an additional volume of chilled water to the river flow due to the thawing of permafrost and the expansion of taliks in August and September. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase on the intensity and localization of anomalies in sea surface temperature and meteorological parameters associated with two types of El Niño is analyzed. The analysis is based on reanalysis and CMIP5 model data for modern and future climate (RCP 8.5 scenario). It is found that El Niño does not exhibit robust intensification during the positive PDO phase, as mentioned in the previous studies, but the PDO influence is highly dependent on the El Niño type. The canonical El Niño is intensified during the positive PDO phase, while, on the contrary, El Niño Modoki weakens. In future climate the interaction between PDO and El Niño is modified, but the significant intermodel spread does not allow an unambiguous determination of trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The changes in the hydrological regime of rivers in the Moscow region occurred under global warming. It is expressed in the redistribution of runoff within a year: an increase in minimum runoff and a decrease in flood runoff. The analysis of the series of the inflow to the Moskvoretskaya system reservoirs revealed stationarity disturbances in the studied series for the period of 1978–1980. This was followed by a change in the characteristics of runoff regulation carried out for water supply in the Moscow region. It is shown that the inflow changes led to the statistical heterogeneity of the series of regulation characteristics, including the total live storage and water deficiency. The Bayesian method is proposed for obtaining statistical characteristics of nonstationary series of the inflow and yield of the Moskvoretskaya system reservoirs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on long-term (1955–2018) actinometric observations at the Meteorological Observatory of Lomonosov Moscow State University, the radiation regime of the Earth's surface is analyzed. The assessment of factors determining the arrival and redistribution of solar and terrestrial radiation is given. A climatic generalization of radiation characteristics is presented: their climate normals, the limits of daily, annual, and long-term variability are determined. The climatology of atmospheric counterradiation (1966–2018) is provided for the first time. Trends in atmospheric radiation parameters indicating current climate change are analyzed. Some aspects of the radiation climate are considered taking into account the requirements of consumers of actinometric information. The presented information can be used by a wide range of specialists for solving scientific and practical problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the fact that the recent decades have become the warmest in the history of meteorological observations for the territory of Northern Eurasia, it is relevant to assess the long-term variability of the convective potential of the atmosphere in changing climate. The spatiotemporal dynamics of the characteristics of atmospheric instability and the frequency of occurrence of convective hazards such as thunderstorm and hail in Western Siberia are analyzed. The northward displacement of the boundaries of active convection estimated by the temperature and humidity parameters of the atmosphere has been registered in the recent decade. The duration of the thunderstorm season and the number of days with a thunderstorm per year increased, as well as the number of days with durable hail and large hail. The height of cumulonimbus clouds generated by vast thunderstorm cells is determined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study analyzes modern climate change based on the data of the climate monitoring performed by the Izrael Institute of Global Climate and Ecology. A brief description of the surface climate monitoring database and its real-time updating is given. Changes in surface temperature over the Earth's land with detailing over the territory of Russia and its regions, as well as changes in the precipitation regime in Russia during the period of modern warming are considered. Changes in the statistics of temperature extremes in Russia are analyzed. Some extreme summer seasons are characterized in terms of accompanying their circulation conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A fundamentally new integrated approach to the state activity on the adaptation to changing environmental conditions, namely, the territorial planning of land use is proposed by the example of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation being the most vulnerable region to climate change. Adaptation measures for natural ecosystems are scientifically grounded for the Arctic region: the prevention of permafrost surface cover disturbances, the minimization of other types of anthropogenic impact and pollution, the maintenance and increase in surface albedo in winter. The examples of development of a dual indicator system are given: for monitoring the implementation of measures and adaptation efficiency (the quantitative markers of climate-caused damage). The analysis of all indicators in the adaptation efficiency monitoring system, as well as the projections of indicators for 5–10 years ahead help to make reasoned management decisions to correct the applied adaptation measures. The practical application of the results includes the use of the developed approaches in the sectoral and regional plans and at the second stage of the National Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observational data from the Roshydromet hydrometeorological stations for 1978–2017, global meteorological network, and objective analysis and reanalysis (NOAA) are used to study the interannual variability of sea surface temperature and air temperature in the coastal and marine areas of the Okhotsk, Japan, Yellow, East China, and South China seas at the modern stage of the warming. Based on the EOF, cluster, and correlation analysis, the spatiotemporal pattern of temperature variations is analyzed and the zoning of sea areas according to the features of modern climate change is performed. The possible cause-and-effect relationships between these changes and the variations in wind components and climate indices are investigated. The studies revealed, specified, and quantified the modern trends and regional features of interannual variability of thermal conditions in the distinguished areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data on modern climate and environmental changes in the northwestern region of Russia are compared with the public perception of such changes. The analysis reveals that unusual weather patterns and single extreme events have a deeper impact on the public perception than long-term periods of climate change. The majority of population consider climate and environmental changes locally, do not associate them with global drivers, and are not prepared to adaptation. The numerical climate perception index is developed to characterize the awareness of population about the climate change and preparedness to adaptation. The index can be used for improving the awareness of policymakers for regional climate adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The inland location of Mongolia and its relatively high general elevation above sea level combined with the arid climate favor the formation of the specific hydrological regime of water bodies which are highly vulnerable to climate changes. The formation features and the current state of water resources in Mongolia are considered. A brief description of the main water bodies is given. The available estimates of the impact of anthropogenic factors and climate changes on some components of water balance are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the influence of climate changes on droughts in the Bam region in Central Iran by using climate change scenarios. In this study, the LARS-WG model was used for predicting precipitation parameters; precipitation forecasts were made for three scenarios of climate change (A1, A1B, and B2). In the drought analysis, the SPI was used to obtain the historical and prognostic data. The results indicated that in the study area most of the years can be classified into the normal class according to the SPI index and most precipitation occurs in January, February, March, April, and May. The results also indicated that, according to the Run theory, the longest drought duration was 32 months, according to the SPI drought index with a 12-month scale, and the highest drought severity was −36.37 in this region. The highest percentage of drought frequency in the prognostic data was allocated to the severe class. These results can help immensely in managing the water resources of the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variability of average daily surface air temperature in Russia is investigated using weather station data for 1970–2015. Three variability ranges are analyzed: interdaily (<3 days) range, synoptic (3–7 days) range, and the range of stable weather patterns (8–20 days). Standard deviations are estimated for the reference (1970–1999) and modern (2000–2015) climate periods for summer and winter. The climate continentality is observed in the spatial distribution of variability: the maximum variability for all ranges is registered in Central Siberia. The interdaily and synoptic variability decreases (as a rule by 10–20%) in winter during the modern period in most regions of Russia. In the range of 8–20 days in winter, variability increases in the regions south of 60°N, with the maximum growth (up to 30%) in the Altai krai. In summer, with the overall general decrease variability, in the western part of Russia and in South Siberia a slight increase in the interdaily and synoptic variability of average daily surface air temperature is found. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The characteristics of spatiotemporal variability of air temperature and ozone mass mixing ratio at 26 levels from the ground to the altitude of 64 km are considered using the ERA-Interim reanalysis data for 1979–2016. Differences are revealed in the distribution of air temperature trends between seasons and latitude zones, between the Atlantic-European, Asian-Pacific, and American sectors of the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and between the thermal regime over the land and ocean. The correlations between the layers and atmospheric circulation patterns in different seasons are assessed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]