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Spatial and temporal patterns of future coral bleaching are uncertain, hampering global conservation efforts to protect coral reefs against climate change. Our analysis of daily projections of ocean warming establishes the severity, annual duration, and onset of severe bleaching risk for global coral reefs this century, pinpointing vital climatic refugia. We show that low-latitude coral regions are most vulnerable to thermal stress and will experience little reprieve from climate mitigation. By 2080, coral bleaching is likely to start on most reefs in spring, rather than late summer, with year-round bleaching risk anticipated to be high for some low-latitude reefs regardless of global efforts to mitigate harmful greenhouse gasses. By identifying Earth's reef regions that are at lowest risk of accelerated bleaching, our results will prioritize efforts to limit future loss of coral reef biodiversity.

The Arctic is among the most climatically sensitive environments on Earth, and the disappearance of multiyear sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is predicted within decades. As apex predators, polar bears are sentinel species for addressing the impact of environmental variability on Arctic marine ecosystems. By integrating genomics, isotopic analysis, morphometrics, and ecological modeling, we investigate how Holocene environmental changes affected polar bears around Greenland. We uncover reductions in effective population size coinciding with increases in annual mean sea surface temperature, reduction in sea ice cover, declines in suitable habitat, and shifts in suitable habitat northward. Furthermore, we show that west and east Greenlandic polar bears are morphologically, and ecologically distinct, putatively driven by regional biotic and genetic differences. Together, we provide insights into the vulnerability of polar bears to environmental change and how the Arctic marine ecosystem plays a vital role in shaping the evolutionary and ecological trajectories of its inhabitants.

With ever-growing data availability and computational power at our disposal, we now have the capacity to use process-explicit models more widely to reveal the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms responsible for spatiotemporal patterns of biodiversity. Most research questions focused on the distribution of diversity cannot be answered experimentally, because many important environmental drivers and biological constraints operate at large spatiotemporal scales. However, we can encode proposed mechanisms into models, observe the patterns they produce in virtual environments, and validate these patterns against real-world data or theoretical expectations. This approach can advance understanding of generalizable mechanisms responsible for the distributions of organisms, communities, and ecosystems in space and time, advancing basic and applied science. We review recent developments in process-explicit models and how they have improved knowledge of the distribution and dynamics of life on Earth, enabling biodiversity to be better understood and managed through a deeper recognition of the processes that shape genetic, species, and ecosystem diversity.