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The two leading modes of winter surface air temperature (SAT) over China during 1961–2017 are a spatially consistent pattern and a north-south dipole pattern. Based on the two leading modes, the characteristics of the extreme cold and warm days in the two patterns, defined by the standard deviation larger than 1.28 or smaller than −1.28 in the time series of the two leading modes, are analyzed. With the increase of winter SAT during 1961–2017, the number of spatially consistent extreme cold days decreased and their occurrence was restricted to late December to early January, whereas the number of spatially consistent extreme warm days increased significantly in January and February. Global warming is associated with an increase in the spatially consistent extreme warm days and a decrease in spatially consistent extreme cold days, but has little relation to the sum of extreme cold and warm days of either the spatially consistent or north-south dipole pattern. The Siberian High (SH) is the main factor controlling the sum of spatially consistent extreme warm and cold days. The strong (weak) SH before (after) the 1990s corresponds to an increase (decrease) in the sum of the spatially consistent extreme warm and cold days. The occurrences of extreme south-cold-north-warm and extreme south-warm-north-cold days are related to the north-south difference of the SH. When the center of the SH is in mid-high latitudes, the extreme south-warm-north-cold (south-cold-north-warm) days occur more (less) often. During the winters of 1961–2017, the total number of extreme cold and warm days of the north-south dipole pattern changes negligibly. The North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) may be the main factor affecting the sum of the extreme cold and warm days of the two types of SAT pattern in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Holocene, the most recent interglacial, provides an important time window for evaluating current global warming and predicting future temperature changes. With the development of new temperature proxies and improvements in climate models, significant progress has been made in understanding Holocene temperature changes. However, a major debate persists about whether global temperatures during the Holocene followed a pattern of gradual warming from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum, which culminated in a temperature maximum in the early to middle Holocene, followed by gradual cooling in the late Holocene (the thermal maximum mode); or whether there was a continuous warming trend that continued to the present day (the continuous warming mode). Significant discrepancies exist between different proxy records as well as between proxy records and models, which have resulted in the "Holocene temperature conundrum" that has challenged paleoclimatologists for the past decade. Here, we summarize the progress made to date in the study of Holocene temperature change via proxy reconstructions, climate model simulations, and paleoclimate data assimilation. We emphasize that the current research has limitations in terms of the multiplicity and seasonality of proxy records, the spatial heterogeneity of temperature records, and the incorporation of feedback processes (e.g., vegetation, cloud-radiation feedback) in climate models. These limitations have hindered a comprehensive understanding of the processes and mechanisms of Holocene temperature changes. To solve the "Holocene temperature conundrum", it is necessary to strengthen theoretical research on climate proxies from the perspective of the underlying processes and mechanisms, elucidate the seasonal response of various temperature proxies, emphasize regional differences in temperature changes, and expand quantitative temperature reconstructions to areas with limited records. However, it is also necessary to improve the simulation performance of complex feedback processes in climate models, reduce simulation errors, and advance the research on data assimilation of Holocene continental temperature records, which may ultimately lead to the optimal integration of paleoclimate records and simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since Shi et al. proposed that the climate in the drylands of Northwest China experienced a significant transition from a "warming and drying" trend to a "warming and wetting" trend in the 1980s, researchers have conducted numerous studies on the variations in precipitation and humidity in the region and even in arid Central Asia. In particular, the process of the "warming and wetting" trend by using obtained measurement data received much attention. However, there remain uncertainties about whether the "warming and wetting" trend has paused and what its future variations may be. In this study, we examined the spatiotemporal variations in temperature, precipitation, the aridity index (AI), vegetation, and runoff during 1950–2019. The results showed that the climate in the drylands of Northwest China and the northern Tibetan Plateau is persistently warming and wetting since the 1980s, with an acceleration since the 1990s. The precipitation/humidity variations in North China, which are mainly influenced by summer monsoon, are generally opposite to those in the drylands of Northwest China. This reverse change is mainly controlled by an anomalous anticyclone over Mongolia, which leads to an anomalous easterly wind, reduced water vapor output, and increased precipitation in the drylands of Northwest China. While it also causes an anomalous descending motion, increased water vapor divergence, and decreased precipitation in North China. Precipitation is the primary controlling factor of humidity, which ultimately forms the spatiotemporal pattern of the "westerlies-dominated climatic regime" of antiphase precipitation/humidity variations between the drylands of Northwest China and monsoonal region of North China. The primary reasons behind the debate of the "warming and wetting" trend in Northwest China were due to the use of different time series lengths, regional ranges, and humidity indices in previous analyses. Since the EC-Earth3 has a good performance for simulating precipitation and humidity in Northwest and North China. By using its simulated results, we found a wetting trend in the drylands of Northwest China under low emission scenarios, but the climate will gradually transition to a "warming and drying" trend as emissions increase. This study suggests that moderate warming can be beneficial for improving the ecological environment in the drylands of Northwest China, while precipitation and humidity in monsoon-dominated North China will persistently increase under scenarios of increased emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Marine Isotope Stage (MIS5e) is characterized by a warmer climate than that of the pre-industrial period, and serves as an analog for the Current Warm Period (CWP). However, uncertainties persist regarding its climatic stability. Here, we retrieved a stalagmite (WXB075) from Wanxiang Cave in the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, and employed absolute 230Th dating and relative annual layer data to establish a high-precision chronological framework for reconstructing the history of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and environmental evolution during early MIS5e with multiple proxies. The findings indicate that the annually laminated stalagmite was formed during Cooling Event 27 (C27). The deposition of WXB075 experienced a hiatus (∼125.58 ka BP) due to a significant cooling event in the North Atlantic, which may be linked to the unstable climate in the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, the impact of meltwater discharge in high northern latitudes results in a two-phase evolution of the ASM, i.e., an initial weaker stage followed by a gradual increase (with the exception of deposition hiatus). The climatic instability of ASM is generally characterized by a quasi-60 year cycle that affects vegetation conditions, biological productivity, and karst hydroclimate dynamics. However, the increase in meltwater and decrease in temperature in the Northern Hemisphere have led to a weakened ASM and subsequent reduction in precipitation. Consequently, vegetation degradation above the cave has occurred along with a slowdown of karst hydroclimate. The vegetation conditions, organic matter content, and wet/drought of the karst hydroclimate were affected by both the large-scale monsoon circulation and local environment during extreme weakening (strengthening) of the monsoon when high-frequency climatic events of ASM occurred. A comparison of δ18O records between early MIS5e and the past 2000 years reveals that the climate during early MIS5e differed significantly from that of CWP, Medieval Warm Period (MWP), and Dark Age Cold Period (DACP) but was similar to Little Ice Age (LIA). Comparison with other geological records from the Northern Hemisphere indicates that climate instability was a widespread phenomenon during MIS5e. The power spectrum analysis of WXB075 δ18O reveals significant quasi-60 and 35 a cycles during the early MIS5e, which is consistent with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The comprehensive results demonstrate that the ASM in the early MIS5e was closely linked to solar activity, Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position, and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming has altered the thermodynamic and dynamic environments of climate systems, affecting the biogeochemical processes between the geosphere and atmosphere, which has significant impacts on precipitation extremes and the terrestrial carbon budget of ecosystems. Existing studies have reported a hook structure for precipitation extreme-temperature relationships but have rarely examined the underlying physical mechanisms. Previous studies have also failed to quantify the impact of precipitation on ecosystem productivity, hindering the assessment of future extreme climatic hazards and potential ecosystem risks. To reveal the thermodynamic driving mechanisms for the formation of global precipitation extremes and ecohydrological effects, this study utilizes over ten multisource datasets (i.e., satellite, reanalysis, climate model, land surface model, machine learning reconstruction, and flux tower measurements). We first assess the response of water-heat-carbon flux to precipitation extremes and explain the underlying physical mechanisms behind the hook structures in terms of atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics. Based on outputs from five global climate models (GCMs) under ISIMIP3b, we project future changes in the hook structures as well as their impacts on precipitation extremes. Finally, we discuss the impact of precipitation on the terrestrial carbon budget by using outputs from the CLM4.5 model. The results show that precipitation extremes are usually accompanied by strong exchanges of water and heat and demonstrate a nonlinear relationship between precipitation and ecosystem productivity. The intensity (duration) of extreme precipitation is intensifying (decreasing) over most areas of the globe, whereas three-dimensional precipitation events are becoming more concentrated. Atmospheric dynamics play a key role in shaping the hook structure. The structure is not stable; it shifts under climate change and is projected to result in a 10–10% intensification in precipitation by the end of this century. Moderate levels of precipitation contribute to carbon assimilation in ecosystems, and the response of the carbon budget to precipitation is relatively stable under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Droughts are one of the climate extremes that occur frequently in drylands, constraining the terrestrial carbon uptake and water cycle processes. Studies about the long-term changes in the effect of drought stress on dryland ecosystems under global warming are still insufficient so far. Here we comprehensively investigate long-term changes in droughts and the effect of drought stresses on ecosystems across global drylands for 1982–2015, and further reveal changes in the configurations of the key meteorological and ecological factors of droughts, by using observation and reanalysis datasets. Climatically, the spatial patterns of intensity, occurrence, duration and severity of all drought categories across global drylands are highly consistent with each other. Associated with severe droughts, drylands witness insufficient precipitation (−12.4 mm mon−1 area-averaged over global drylands), warmer temperature (0.6°C), water deficit (−19.0 mm mon−1), higher atmospheric aridity (0.06 kPa), lower soil moisture (−0.03 m3 m−3), suppressed vegetation growth and declined carbon uptake (−0.13 g C m−2 d−1). The affected area, occurrence, duration and severity for mild to severe droughts in drylands and the anomalies of meteorological and ecological factors for all drought categories have increased significantly during 1982–2015. Specifically, when droughts occur, the precipitation deficit is weakened at a rate of 3.7–9.6 mm mon−1 (30 yr)−1, the higher temperature (atmospheric aridity) is further intensified at 0.71–0.87°C (30 yr)(39–47 Pa (30 yr)−1), the water (soil moisture) deficit is relieved at 1.7–5.1 mm mon−1 (30 yr)−1 (4.1×10−3–7.4×10−3 m3 m−3 (30 yr)−1), and the suppressed vegetation growth is generally alleviated at 0.98×10−2–1.2×10−2 (30 yr)−1. Since the 2000s, the increasing trend in the suppressed vegetation growth during droughts tends to stagnate over about 50% of the dryland area. By checking the probability density function, the configurations of the key meteorological and ecological factors of droughts show significant differences between the periods before and after 2000. The probability of drought stress caused by precipitation and soil moisture deficit has decreased by 20% and 10%, respectively, while that caused by higher temperature and atmospheric aridity has been doubled, and increased by 26% and 15%, respectively. Thus, the impact of drought stress on dryland ecosystems caused by atmospheric aridity are increasing under global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we investigate the climate attribution of the 21·7 Henan extreme precipitation event. A conditional storyline attribution method is used, based on simulations of the event with a small-domain high-resolution cloud-resolving model. Large-scale vertical motion is determined by an interactive representation of large-scale dynamics based on the quasi-geostrophic omega equation, with dynamical forcing terms taken from observation-based reanalysis data. It is found that warming may lead to significant intensification of both regional-scale (10–14% K−1, depending on convective organization) and station-scale precipitation extremes (7–9% K−1). By comparing clustered convection organized by a localized surface temperature anomaly and squall-line convection organized by vertical wind shear, we further explored how convective organization may modify precipitation extremes and their responses to warming. It is found that shear convective organization is much more sensitive to large-scale dynamic forcing and results in much higher precipitation extremes at both regional and station scales than unorganized convection is. The clustered convection increases station-scale precipitation only slightly during heavy precipitation events. For regional-scale extreme precipitation sensitivity, shear-organized convection has a larger sensitivity by 2–3% K−1 than that of unorganized convection, over a wide temperature range, due to its stronger diabatic heating feedback. For the station-scale extreme precipitation sensitivity, no systemic dependence on convective organization is found in our simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of global warming, glaciers in the Asian High Mountains (AHMs) are shrinking at an accelerating rate. Projecting their future change is helpful for understanding the hydrological and climatic effects related to glacier retreat. Here, we projected glacier change in the AHMs from 1979 to 2100 under shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios from the perspective of temperature, equilibrium-line altitude (ELA), and accumulation area. The annual mean temperature in the AHMs increased by 1.26°C from 1979 to 2014, corresponding to an increase of 210 m in the mean ELA and a decrease of 1.7×104 km2 in the glacier accumulation area. Under the SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario, the annual mean temperature in the AHMs would increase by 2.84°C (3.38°C) in 2040–2060 relative to that in 1850–1900, leading to the mean ELA reaching an elevation of 5661 m (5777 m). The accumulation area in the AHMs decreased by 46.3% from 1995 to 2014 and was projected to decrease by 60.1% in 2040–2060. Moreover, the annual mean temperature in the AHMs was projected to increase by 3.76°C (6.44°C) in 2080–2100 relative to that in 1850–1900, corresponding to the ELA reaching an elevation of 5821 m (6245 m) and the accumulation area decreasing to 1.8×104 km2 (0.5×104 km2). These data suggest that the conditions for glacier development will disappear in most of the AHMs, except for extreme high-altitude regions in the Tianshan, Pamir, and Himalaya Mountains. Under the SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario, when the global mean temperature increases 1.5°C (2°C) above pre-industrial levels, the annual mean temperature will increase by 2.12°C (2.86°C) and the accumulation area will decrease by 15% (48%) in the AHMs compared with that in 1995–2015. Therefore, a 1.5°C increase in global warming would keep 40% more of the glacial accumulation area (1.5×104 km2) in the AHMs compared to a 2°C increase in global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Permafrost is a potential mercury (Hg) pool released by thawing, which can raise the risk of Hg pollution under global warming. Tree rings are useful archives of environment-specific Hg exposure over long periods. We determined Hg concentrations in tree rings of two dominant tree species (Larix gmelinii Rupr. and Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica) at permafrost sites in northeastern China. The biweighted mean Hg concentrations ranged from 0.36 to 3.96 ng g−1 from 1840 to 2014. The tree-ring width had no significant influence on the Hg concentration. Larch Hg increased slightly before the 1970s and peaked in the 1990s. However, the pine Hg concentration increased continuously until the 1930s, decreased rapidly until the 1970s, then rose to a peak in the late 1980s. The change of Hg concentrations in larch and pine revealed a time offset of 4 to 5 years, which implied possibly high mobility of Hg in pine tree rings. Higher Hg concentrations from 1920 to 1960 and subsequent decreases in isolated permafrost forests revealed the local geographical Hg cycling history. Lower Hg concentrations and faster increases in larch suggest the role of additional winter Hg loading for the evergreen pine and species-specific differences in root absorption in response to melting permafrost. Our results highlight possible geographical impacts on tree-ring Hg records, improve understanding of Hg cycles in permafrost forest, and suggest a need to sample additional species in a range of permafrost environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding hydroclimatic patterns and their possible driving mechanisms during distinct climate periods over the last 1500 years—such as the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA), and the Current Warm Period—is crucial for predicting future changes to monsoon precipitation in southwest China under global warming scenarios. In this study, based on 210Pb and 137Cs dating of surface sediments and AMS 14C dating of terrestrial plant residues, we establish a robust age model that covers the last ∼1500 years (AD 439–2012) at Lake Yihai in southwest China. We use analyses of multiple geochemical proxy indices, including loss on ignition at 550°C, total organic carbon, total nitrogen, C/N ratios, and stable carbon isotopes of organic matter to reconstruct changes in summer monsoon precipitation at Lake Yihai during the last ∼1500 years. The results show that, over southwest China, warm and dry climate conditions prevailed during the MWP (AD 1000–1400) and the past 200 years, whereas conditions during the LIA (AD 1400–1800) were cold and wet. This is consistent with evidence from other geological records over southwest China, such as stalagmite and lake sediment data. Similar hydroclimatic patterns have occurred over the last 1500 years in adjacent tropical/subtropical monsoon regions where the climate is similarly dominated by the Indian summer monsoon (e.g., South China, the South China Sea, Southeast Asia, Northeast India). We suggest that the meridional migration of the mean position of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone, and El Niño/Southern Oscillation conditions which are linked to tropical Pacific sea surface temperature, are responsible for centennial-scale hydroclimatic patterns over southwest China and adjacent areas during the last 1500 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the long-term trend of water vapor over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in boreal summer is investigated by using observation and reanalysis data from 1979 to 2019. The historical experiment simulations of 19 models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) are evaluated, and the future variation tendency under four emission scenarios is projected. The results indicate that the water vapor content and the net water vapor budget over the TP show notable increasing trends, which are mainly manifested by a significant increase in the net water vapor import and a significant decrease in the water vapor export on the eastern boundary of the TP. This is mainly due to an anomalous anticyclone from Lake Baikal to the Mongolian Plateau. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble can well simulate the variation characteristics of the TP net water vapor budget. The projection results indicate that by the end of the twenty-first century, the water vapor content, the net water vapor import and precipitation over the TP will increase. Under a high-emissions scenario and compared with the current period (1991–2014), these three variables will increase by 47.99%, 59.77% and 18.59% in the long term (2081–2100), respectively. The significant enhancement of meridional water vapor transport over the northern TP may be the main reason for the increase in humidity over the TP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]