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The two leading modes of winter surface air temperature (SAT) over China during 1961–2017 are a spatially consistent pattern and a north-south dipole pattern. Based on the two leading modes, the characteristics of the extreme cold and warm days in the two patterns, defined by the standard deviation larger than 1.28 or smaller than −1.28 in the time series of the two leading modes, are analyzed. With the increase of winter SAT during 1961–2017, the number of spatially consistent extreme cold days decreased and their occurrence was restricted to late December to early January, whereas the number of spatially consistent extreme warm days increased significantly in January and February. Global warming is associated with an increase in the spatially consistent extreme warm days and a decrease in spatially consistent extreme cold days, but has little relation to the sum of extreme cold and warm days of either the spatially consistent or north-south dipole pattern. The Siberian High (SH) is the main factor controlling the sum of spatially consistent extreme warm and cold days. The strong (weak) SH before (after) the 1990s corresponds to an increase (decrease) in the sum of the spatially consistent extreme warm and cold days. The occurrences of extreme south-cold-north-warm and extreme south-warm-north-cold days are related to the north-south difference of the SH. When the center of the SH is in mid-high latitudes, the extreme south-warm-north-cold (south-cold-north-warm) days occur more (less) often. During the winters of 1961–2017, the total number of extreme cold and warm days of the north-south dipole pattern changes negligibly. The North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) may be the main factor affecting the sum of the extreme cold and warm days of the two types of SAT pattern in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change and its possible ecological consequences have become the focused issue (IPCC, 2007; Mann et al., 2008; Ding et al., 2009). The Holocene contains the analogous characteristic of future climatic change and the continuous agriculture activity, providing the ideal “similar pattern” for studying the climate change and human adaption and impact in the future. Based on the recent studies of stalagmite, ice core, ocean, and lake etc., the paper introduces the new progress in the Holocene climate and agriculture research in China as follows: (1) Discuss the variability, amplitude, and unstable characteristic of climate, as well as the abrupt events and mechanisms of climate. (2) Analyze the botanical index records for studying the early agriculture. (3) Review the agricultural origin, expanding, and development. (4) Reveal the style and intensity of early agriculture and understand the agricultural impact and adaption to the environmental changes. (5) Introduce ongoing research projects in China and emphasize the significance of increasing the dating precision and the indicative effectiveness of proxies. (6) Realize how the ecosystem and environmental factors respond to the increasing temperature process, understand how the human adapt to the rapid climate change, and provide the scientific basis for assessing the effects of climate change and the human adaption in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since Shi et al. proposed that the climate in the drylands of Northwest China experienced a significant transition from a "warming and drying" trend to a "warming and wetting" trend in the 1980s, researchers have conducted numerous studies on the variations in precipitation and humidity in the region and even in arid Central Asia. In particular, the process of the "warming and wetting" trend by using obtained measurement data received much attention. However, there remain uncertainties about whether the "warming and wetting" trend has paused and what its future variations may be. In this study, we examined the spatiotemporal variations in temperature, precipitation, the aridity index (AI), vegetation, and runoff during 1950–2019. The results showed that the climate in the drylands of Northwest China and the northern Tibetan Plateau is persistently warming and wetting since the 1980s, with an acceleration since the 1990s. The precipitation/humidity variations in North China, which are mainly influenced by summer monsoon, are generally opposite to those in the drylands of Northwest China. This reverse change is mainly controlled by an anomalous anticyclone over Mongolia, which leads to an anomalous easterly wind, reduced water vapor output, and increased precipitation in the drylands of Northwest China. While it also causes an anomalous descending motion, increased water vapor divergence, and decreased precipitation in North China. Precipitation is the primary controlling factor of humidity, which ultimately forms the spatiotemporal pattern of the "westerlies-dominated climatic regime" of antiphase precipitation/humidity variations between the drylands of Northwest China and monsoonal region of North China. The primary reasons behind the debate of the "warming and wetting" trend in Northwest China were due to the use of different time series lengths, regional ranges, and humidity indices in previous analyses. Since the EC-Earth3 has a good performance for simulating precipitation and humidity in Northwest and North China. By using its simulated results, we found a wetting trend in the drylands of Northwest China under low emission scenarios, but the climate will gradually transition to a "warming and drying" trend as emissions increase. This study suggests that moderate warming can be beneficial for improving the ecological environment in the drylands of Northwest China, while precipitation and humidity in monsoon-dominated North China will persistently increase under scenarios of increased emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Permafrost is a potential mercury (Hg) pool released by thawing, which can raise the risk of Hg pollution under global warming. Tree rings are useful archives of environment-specific Hg exposure over long periods. We determined Hg concentrations in tree rings of two dominant tree species (Larix gmelinii Rupr. and Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica) at permafrost sites in northeastern China. The biweighted mean Hg concentrations ranged from 0.36 to 3.96 ng g−1 from 1840 to 2014. The tree-ring width had no significant influence on the Hg concentration. Larch Hg increased slightly before the 1970s and peaked in the 1990s. However, the pine Hg concentration increased continuously until the 1930s, decreased rapidly until the 1970s, then rose to a peak in the late 1980s. The change of Hg concentrations in larch and pine revealed a time offset of 4 to 5 years, which implied possibly high mobility of Hg in pine tree rings. Higher Hg concentrations from 1920 to 1960 and subsequent decreases in isolated permafrost forests revealed the local geographical Hg cycling history. Lower Hg concentrations and faster increases in larch suggest the role of additional winter Hg loading for the evergreen pine and species-specific differences in root absorption in response to melting permafrost. Our results highlight possible geographical impacts on tree-ring Hg records, improve understanding of Hg cycles in permafrost forest, and suggest a need to sample additional species in a range of permafrost environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding hydroclimatic patterns and their possible driving mechanisms during distinct climate periods over the last 1500 years—such as the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA), and the Current Warm Period—is crucial for predicting future changes to monsoon precipitation in southwest China under global warming scenarios. In this study, based on 210Pb and 137Cs dating of surface sediments and AMS 14C dating of terrestrial plant residues, we establish a robust age model that covers the last ∼1500 years (AD 439–2012) at Lake Yihai in southwest China. We use analyses of multiple geochemical proxy indices, including loss on ignition at 550°C, total organic carbon, total nitrogen, C/N ratios, and stable carbon isotopes of organic matter to reconstruct changes in summer monsoon precipitation at Lake Yihai during the last ∼1500 years. The results show that, over southwest China, warm and dry climate conditions prevailed during the MWP (AD 1000–1400) and the past 200 years, whereas conditions during the LIA (AD 1400–1800) were cold and wet. This is consistent with evidence from other geological records over southwest China, such as stalagmite and lake sediment data. Similar hydroclimatic patterns have occurred over the last 1500 years in adjacent tropical/subtropical monsoon regions where the climate is similarly dominated by the Indian summer monsoon (e.g., South China, the South China Sea, Southeast Asia, Northeast India). We suggest that the meridional migration of the mean position of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone, and El Niño/Southern Oscillation conditions which are linked to tropical Pacific sea surface temperature, are responsible for centennial-scale hydroclimatic patterns over southwest China and adjacent areas during the last 1500 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The history and mechanisms of dust storms in northern China remain unclear owing to the paucity of reliable long-term, high-resolution geological records. In this study, we reconstructed the dust storm history of the last ~500 years in northern China, based on sedimentary coarse fraction (>63 µm) of a well-dated core from Lake Daihai, Inner Mongolia. The high-resolution data reveal three intervals of frequent dust storms: AD 1520–1580, AD 1610–1720, and AD 1870–2000. The dust storm events in the Lake Daihai area were broadly synchronous with those inferred from other historical or geological records and generally occurred during cold intervals. Changes in the intensity of Siberian High and the westerlies modulated by temperature variations are the likely major factors controlling dust storm dynamics. An interesting feature is that although the intensities of dust storms have been systematically increased during the recent warming period, a clear decreasing trend within this period is evident. The recent increase in average dust storm intensity may be ascribed to an increase in particle supply resulting from a rapid increase in human activity, whereas the weakening trend was likely caused by decreases in average wind speed resulting from the recent global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of global warming on the climate of northern China has been investigated intensively, and the behavior of the East Asian monsoon during previous intervals of climatic warming may provide insight into future changes. In this study, we use paleovegetation records from loess and lake sediments in the marginal zone of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) to reconstruct the EASM during the interval of warming from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the Holocene. The results show that during the LGM, desert steppe or dry steppe dominated much of northern China; in addition, the southeastern margin of the deserts east of the Helan Mountains had a distribution similar to that of the present-day, or was located slightly further south, due to the cold and dry climate caused by a strengthened East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and weakened EASM. During the last deglaciation, with the strengthening of the EASM and concomitant weakening of the EAWM, northern China gradually became humid. However, this trend was interrupted by abrupt cooling during the Heinrich 1 (H1) and Younger Dryas (YD) events. The EASM intensified substantially during the Holocene, and the monsoon rain belt migrated at least 300 km northwestwards, which led to the substantial shrinking of the desert area in the central and eastern part of northern China, and to the large expansion of plants favored by warm and humid conditions. Paleoclimatic records from the marginal zone of the EASM all show that the EASM reached its peak in the mid-Holocene, and past global climatic warming significantly strengthened the EASM, thereby greatly improving the ecological environment in northern China. Thus, northern China is expected to become wetter as global warming continues. Finally, high resolution Holocene vegetation records are sparse compared with the numerous records on the orbital timescale, and there is a need for more studies of Holocene climatic variability on the centennial-to-decadal scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We report a 1556 year-long tree-ring width chronology for the Hexi Corridor, in the arid Northwestern China, established by applying the signal-free regional curve standardization method to 416 juniper ring-width series. We found that drought in early summer (May–June) is the primary controlling factor for tree growth in this area. We then developed an early summer moisture (i.e., scPDSI) reconstruction from 455 CE to present. Our reconstruction captures multi-centennial scale moisture variations, showing two long-term dry periods during 800–950 CE and 1000–1200 CE, and two long-term wet periods during 1200–1450 CE and 1510–1620 CE. We found strong similarities between hydroclimatic changes in the Hexi Corridor and Qaidam Basin from interannual to centennial timescales; however, at multi-centennial (>300 years) timescales, hydroclimatic variations in the two regions showed significant regional differences. The Hexi Corridor witnessed a generally dry Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, here 800–1200 CE) and the drying 20th century, whereas the Qaidam Basin experienced high-precipitation periods during the MCA and 20th century. The different correlation pattern with Northern Hemisphere temperature suggest that the Qaidam Basin will receive more precipitation under global warming, whereas the Hexi Corridor will become dryer in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study quantitatively investigates the long-term dynamics of the association between natural disasters and the migration of agriculturists in historical China. Population pressure is also studied because migration is a population density-dependent phenomenon. This study has adopted correlation analysis, multivariate linear/Poisson regression analyses, and Granger causality analysis to verify the linkages of natural disaster-migration and population-migration in historical China by collecting updated datasets. This study is the first attempt to reveal that the duration effects of natural disasters on the migration of agriculturalists are short-term and almost instantaneous. Although the agrarian society has a low buffering capacity, the effects of natural disasters within a short-term scale could be relieved to some extent. However, population pressure can push migration on a long-term scale despite its limited forcefulness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The general characteristics of climate changes over the past 2000 years in China, regional differences and uncertainties were analyzed based on the recently peer-reviewed high time-resolution climatic reconstructions. The results showed that there exists four warm periods of the temperature variation in China since the Qin Dynasty, including the western and eastern Han Dynasties (200 BC-AD 180), the Sui and Tang dynasties (541-810), the Song and Yuan dynasties (931-1320), and the 20th century, and three cold phases involving the Wei, Jin, and North-South Dynasties (181-540), the late Tang Dynasty (811-930), and the Ming and Qing dynasties (1321-1920). The Song and Yuan warm period is consistent with the Medieval Warm Period over the Northern Hemisphere, and the cold phases of the North-South Dynasties and the Ming and Qing dynasties are paralleled to the Dark Ages Cold Period and the Little Ice Age, respectively. The 13th-15th century could be a shift to the wet condition of the climate, and the low precipitation variability is exhibited in western China prior to 1500. In the context of the climate warming, the pattern of the drought in north and flood in south is prevalent over the eastern China. In addition, the published reconstructions have a high level of confidence for the past 500 years, but large uncertainties exist prior to the 16th century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the first millennial-length gridded field reconstruction of annual temperature for China, and analyze the reconstruction for spatiotemporal changes and associated uncertainties, based on a network of 415 well-distributed and accurately dated climatic proxy series. The new reconstruction method is a modified form of the point-by-point regression (PPR) approach. The main difference is the incorporation of the 'composite plus scale' (CPS) and 'Regularized errors-in-variables' (EIV) algorithms to allow for the assimilation of various types of the proxy data. Furthermore, the search radius is restricted to a grid size; this restriction helps effectively exclude proxy data possibly correlated with temperature but belonging to a different climate region. The results indicate that: 1) the past temperature record in China is spatially heterogenic, with variable correlations between cells in time; 2) the late 20th century warming in China probably exceeds mean temperature levels at any period of the past 1000 years, but the temperature anomalies of some grids in eastern China during the Medieval climate anomaly period are warmer than during the modern warming; 3) the climatic variability in the eastern and western regions of China was not synchronous during much of the last millennium, probably due to the influence of the Tibetan Plateau. Our temperature reconstruction may serve as a reference to test simulation results over the past millennium, and help to finely analyze the spatial characteristics and the driving mechanism of the past temperature variability. However, the lower reconstruction skill scores for some grid points underline that the present set of available proxy data series is not yet sufficient to accurately reconstruct the heterogeneous climate of China in all regions, and that there is the need for more highly resolved temperature proxies, particularly in the Tibetan Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The trends of daily maximum and minimum temperature in global warming indicated that the daily minimum temperature ( T) has risen more than twice as fast as the daily maximum temperature ( T) during the 20th century. Most researchers have focused on how the crops respond to daily mean temperature, whereas few controlled experiments were carried out to investigate how the crops respond to the T rise. In particular, no experiment research has reported on how crops respond to the higher night temperature, which was the main trend in the climate warming. Taking winter wheat as the test crop, we investigated how the winter wheat growth and yields responded to the higher night temperature. In the field experiments, infrared heaters were used to increase higher night temperature (HNT) by about 2.5°C in contrast to the normal night temperature (CK) in two whole growth durations of winter wheat in 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 in North China. The results indicated that, compared to the CK treatment, winter wheat yield did not decline in HNT treatment, which increased temperatures by 2.0-2.5°C in both Warmer year (WY) and Colder year (CY). Furthermore, winter wheat yield in CY increased significantly in HNT treatment. HNT treatment in CY could significantly promote tillering and increase the effective panicles, which increased grain yield significantly (by more than 30% compared with CK). HNT treatment in CY contributed to an increase in the effective panicles and Kernels significantly, although making a significant reduction in 1000-grain weight, but did not lead to the yield decline. Under the HNT treatment, the whole growth duration of the winter wheat was shortened and the phenological dates were earlier except for the beginning of overwintering; the beginnings of the overwintering phase were postponed substantially and the ends of the overwintering phase were ahead of date compared to CK, which shortened the duration of overwintering considerably. We draw on our own studies to show examples of higher night temperature impact on winter wheat in a relatively cold year and relatively warm year in North China. Our results refer to winter wheat in North China, not all main winter wheat producing regions, in Huang-Huai and Southwest of China. Some uncertainties of our predictions derive from fast progress in crop breeding, the variability of climate, and the role of adaptive actions in the future. As expected, the adaptation measures should be considered to cope with the impacts of global warming on crops, and further research and assessments should be conducted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]