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The global ocean's oxygen inventory is declining in response to global warming, but the future of the low-oxygen tropics is uncertain. We report new evidence for tropical oxygenation during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), a warming event that serves as a geologic analog to anthropogenic warming. Foraminifera-bound nitrogen isotopes indicate that the tropical North Pacific oxygen-deficient zone contracted during the PETM. A concomitant increase in foraminifera size implies that oxygen availability rose in the shallow subsurface throughout the tropical North Pacific. These changes are consistent with ocean model simulations of warming, in which a decline in biological productivity allows tropical subsurface oxygen to rise even as global ocean oxygen declines. The tropical oxygen increase may have helped avoid a mass extinction during the PETM.

Global warming threatens marine biota with losses of unknown severity. Here, we quantify global and local extinction risks in the ocean across a range of climate futures on the basis of the ecophysiological limits of diverse animal species and calibration against the fossil record. With accelerating greenhouse gas emissions, species losses from warming and oxygen depletion alone become comparable to current direct human impacts within a century and culminate in a mass extinction rivaling those in Earth's past. Polar species are at highest risk of extinction, but local biological richness declines more in the tropics. Reversing greenhouse gas emissions trends would diminish extinction risks by more than 70%, preserving marine biodiversity accumulated over the past ~50 million years of evolutionary history.

Fossil records from tropical oceans predict biodiversity loss in a warmer world.

Rapid climate change at the end of the Permian Period (~252 million years ago) is the hypothesized trigger for the largest mass extinction in Earth's history. We present model simulations of the Permian/Triassic climate transition that reproduce the ocean warming and oxygen (O 2 ) loss indicated by the geologic record. The effect of these changes on animal survival is evaluated using the Metabolic Index (Φ), a measure of scope for aerobic activity governed by organismal traits sampled in diverse modern species. Modeled loss of aerobic habitat predicts lower extinction intensity in the tropics, a pattern confirmed with a spatially explicit analysis of the marine fossil record. The combined physiological stresses of ocean warming and O 2 loss can account for more than half the magnitude of the "Great Dying.", (Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

Insect pests substantially reduce yields of three staple grains-rice, maize, and wheat-but models assessing the agricultural impacts of global warming rarely consider crop losses to insects. We use established relationships between temperature and the population growth and metabolic rates of insects to estimate how and where climate warming will augment losses of rice, maize, and wheat to insects. Global yield losses of these grains are projected to increase by 10 to 25% per degree of global mean surface warming. Crop losses will be most acute in areas where warming increases both population growth and metabolic rates of insects. These conditions are centered primarily in temperate regions, where most grain is produced., (Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

Warming of the oceans and consequent loss of dissolved oxygen (O2) will alter marine ecosystems, but a mechanistic framework to predict the impact of multiple stressors on viable habitat is lacking. Here, we integrate physiological, climatic, and biogeographic data to calibrate and then map a key metabolic index-the ratio of O2 supply to resting metabolic O2 demand-across geographic ranges of several marine ectotherms. These species differ in thermal and hypoxic tolerances, but their contemporary distributions are all bounded at the equatorward edge by a minimum metabolic index of ~2 to 5, indicative of a critical energetic requirement for organismal activity. The combined effects of warming and O2 loss this century are projected to reduce the upper ocean's metabolic index by ~20% globally and by ~50% in northern high-latitude regions, forcing poleward and vertical contraction of metabolically viable habitats and species ranges., (Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

Climate warming is expected to reduce oxygen (O2) supply to the ocean and expand its oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). We reconstructed variations in the extent of North Pacific anoxia since 1850 using a geochemical proxy for denitrification (δ(15)N) from multiple sediment cores. Increasing δ(15)N since ~1990 records an expansion of anoxia, consistent with observed O2 trends. However, this was preceded by a longer declining δ(15)N trend that implies that the anoxic zone was shrinking for most of the 20th century. Both periods can be explained by changes in winds over the tropical Pacific that drive upwelling, biological productivity, and O2 demand within the OMZ. If equatorial Pacific winds resume their predicted weakening trend, the ocean's largest anoxic zone will contract despite a global O2 decline., (Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

Oxygen (O(2)) is a critical constraint on marine ecosystems. As oceanic O(2) falls to hypoxic concentrations, habitability for aerobic organisms decreases rapidly. We show that the spatial extent of hypoxia is highly sensitive to small changes in the ocean's O(2) content, with maximum responses at suboxic concentrations where anaerobic metabolisms predominate. In model-based reconstructions of historical oxygen changes, the world's largest suboxic zone, in the Pacific Ocean, varies in size by a factor of 2. This is attributable to climate-driven changes in the depth of the tropical and subtropical thermocline that have multiplicative effects on respiration rates in low-O(2) water. The same mechanism yields even larger fluctuations in the rate of nitrogen removal by denitrification, creating a link between decadal climate oscillations and the nutrient limitation of marine photosynthesis.