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Abstract Land use change can result in variations in ecosystem services (ESs) and their relationships. Studying the temporal dynamics of ESs and their relationships can support scenario analyses that provide the theoretical basis for policy decisions and regional ecosystem management. Previous studies have revealed the trade-offs between two ESs on multiple scales, while the trade-offs between multiple ESs require further analysis. Furthermore, trade-offs are rarely considered in scenario constructions, which weakens the ability of scenarios to inform land use policy. In this study, the InVEST model was applied to assess carbon sequestration, habitat quality, nutrient retention, sediment retention and seasonal water yield at five-year intervals from 1990 to 2015 and to construct five simulated scenarios that represented different ecological restoration and land reclamation policies. The results indicated that the Grain for Green Project (GFGP) increased all ESs, with seasonal water yield increasing by approximately 1.29 times above the initial stage. However, decreasing cropland area reduced the correlations between ESs both in trade-offs and synergies. Among all scenarios studied, the Returning Cropland to Grassland trade-off scenario had the maximum effect, while the natural succession to shrubland scenario had a minimum effect at the pixel level. Except for the land reclamation scenario, the overall ES benefits in the other scenarios exceeded the benefits received in 2015. Given the extent of watershed areas impacted by different overall ES benefit and trade-off situations, the Returning Cropland to Grassland scenario appears to best reduce the impacts of the worst situation compared to 2015, reducing the negative impacts by 22.6%. We suggest that scenarios that combine both overall ESs values and their trade-offs can support more effective and efficient land use decisions. Graphic abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • We evaluated five regulating ESs and simulate five scenarios using the InVEST model. • Seasonal water yield showed a distinct increase after the GFGP was implemented. • Increased ESs and decreased cropland reduce correlations among them after 2000. • The Returning Cropland to Grassland scenario is optimal for future land use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystem services are the benefits people obtain from ecosystems, and ecosystem services trade-offs have been widely applied to the development of land-use policy. Although previous studies have focused on trade-offs of ecosystem services, a scenario approach has been seldom used. The scenario approach can reveal the changes of ecosystem services for different land-use patterns in the future, and is of great significance for land-use decisions and ecosystem management. Based on the actual situation of deteriorating water quality and dwindling water supply in the Erhai Lake Basin of southwest China, this study put forward to convert paddy land to dry land (PLDL) in the basin, and simulated its potential impact on ecosystem services. Taking environmental pollution, social impact, economic benefit and residential participation into consideration, four scenarios of PLDL were designed. Then, four ecosystem services (water purification, water yield, soil conservation and rice production) were calculated for each scenario. The optimal scenario of PLDL in the Erhai Lake Basin was identified by trade-offs of the four ecosystem services. The results showed that the total nitrogen export could be reduced by 42.07% and water yield can be increased by 5.61% after converting 100% of paddy lands to dry land, thereby greatly improving the water quality and increasing the water yield of Erhai Lake. However, PLDL involving 100% of paddy lands also increased the sediment export by 17.22%, and eliminated rice production in the region. By comparing the four PLDL scenarios for converting just 50% of paddy lands, the residential participation scenario was identified to be the best choice for PLDL implementation because it achieved the best level of water purification and had the smallest negative effect on other ecosystem services. The optimal scenario for each township showed spatial differentiation, and there were conflicts between the optimal scenarios at basin scale and township scale, suggesting that the object and the spatial-temporal scale should be taken into consideration in land-use decisions using ecosystem services trade-offs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an information carrier and communication medium, indicators provide useful decision-making assistance in setting process goals and effectively reaching the goals. The main focus of this article is to investigate indicators' role in influencing planning through Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) especially related to Chinese experiences. From the perspective of planning and decision-making theory, the influence on planning is studied as influence of planning structure and influence of planning actors. Such a conceptual framework is applied in order to demonstrate how the use of indicators can influence planning through a SEA process. The study holds two empirical levels. On a general level, based on an online survey, this article investigates SEA practitioners' experiences in using indicators. On a case level, two urban plans are selected to provide more detailed experiences. The case level investigation is based on a documentary study and individual interviews with SEA practitioners/planners. By exploring how indicators influence planning through the structure of and the actors within SEA, this study tries to provide an overview of indicators' role in SEA. The results indicate that indicators are perceived as a useful tool in the Chinese SEA system. By improving and simplifying the procedures of SEA, the indicators exert more structural influence on SEA and on plan making. On the other hand, indicators are also shown to have more influence through political actors than found among technical actors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid industrialization in China has brought forward serious and harmful atmospheric pollution. In this study, spatial econometric analysis was used to analyze the spatial change and the driving forces behind the industrial sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) discharge in China from 2001 to 2014. The study found that the amount of industrial SO 2 discharge (ISOD) increased first and then decreased during this period. ISOD intensity witnessed a fluctuating drop. There were large differences among intercity ISOD amount and intensity, which had various spatial patterns. Global Moran's I of ISOD amount and intensity had a tendency to increase on the whole, showed positive spatial autocorrelation, and revealed a more and more remarkable clustered spatial pattern. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis found that the spatial patterns of ISOD amount and intensity changed considerably over space and time. The spatial patterns of ISOD were significantly influenced by the regional differences in land use and environmental policy. The study also found that the driving forces of ISOD in China changed significantly from 2001 to 2014. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Estimations of air pollutant emissions from vehicles in China under different energy and emission abatement policy scenarios are presented in this paper. Three scenarios are designed: (i) “business as usual” (BAU); (ii) “advanced fuel economy” (AFE); and (iii) “alternative energy replacement” (AER). The CO, VOCs, NOx, PM10, and CO2 emissions are predicted to reach 105.8, 5.9, 7.5, 1.1, and 3522.6milliontons, respectively, in the BAU scenario by 2030. In the AFE scenario, the CO, VOCs, NOx, PM10, and CO2 emissions in 2030 will be abated by 23.8%, 18.6%, 25.3%, 18.2%, and 24.5% respectively compared with the BAU scenario. In the AER scenario, the CO and VOCs in 2030 will be further reduced by 15.9% and 6.1% respectively, while NOx, PM10, and CO2 will be increased by 10.7%, 33.3%, and 2.0% compared with AFE. In conclusion, our models indicate that the emission abatement policies introduced by governmental institutions are potentially viable, as long as they are effectively implemented. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: There are two kinds of land policies, the smallholding land policy (SLP) and the farmland policy (FLP) in China. The farmland nutrient dynamics under the two land policies were analysed with the soil system budget method. The averaged nitrogen (N) input of the SLP and the FLP over sixteen years increased about 23.9% and 33.3%, respectively and the phosphorus (P) input climbed about 39.1% and 42.3%, respectively. The statistical analysis showed that the land policies had significant impacts on N and P input from fertilizer and manure, but did not obviously affect the N input from seeds and biological N fixation. The efficiency percentage of N of the SLP and the FLP climbed about 54.5% and 59.4%, respectively, and the P efficiency improved by 52.7% and 82.6%, respectively. About the nutrient output, the F-test analysis indicated that the land polices had remarkable impacts on N output by crop uptake, ammonia volatilisation, denitrification, leaching and runoff, and P output by uptake, runoff, and leach. The balance showed that the absolute loss of N from land deceased about 43.6% and 46.0%, respectively, in the SLP and the FLP, and P discharge reduced about 34.2% and 75.2%, respectively. The F-test analysis of N and P efficiency and balance of between two polices both indicated that the FLP had significant impact on nutrient dynamic. With the Mitscherlich model, the correlations between nutrient input and crop uptake, usage efficiency and loss were analysed and showed that was a threshold value for the optimal nutrient input with the highest efficiency rate. For the optimal nutrient efficiency, the space for extra P addition was bigger than the N input. The FLP have more advantage than the SLP on the crop yield, nutrient efficiency and environmental discharge. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is not a criteria pollutant in China, and few studies were conducted in the country to investigate the health impact of PM2.5. In this study, we did a time-stratified case-crossover analysis to examine the association between PM2.5 and daily mortality in Shenyang, an industrial center in northeast China. Daily mortality, air pollution and weather data from August 1, 2006 to December 31, 2008 in Shenyang were collected. A time-stratified case-crossover approach was used to estimate the association of PM2.5 with both total and cause-specific mortality. Controls were selected as matched days of the week in the same month. Potential effect modifiers, such as age, gender, and season, were also examined. We found significant associations between PM2.5 and daily mortality in Shenyang. A 10μg/m3 increment in the 2-day moving average (lag 01) concentrations of PM2.5 corresponded to 0.49% (95% CI: 0.19%, 0.79%), 0.53% (95% CI: 0.09%, 0.97%), and 0.97% (95% CI: 0.01%, 1.94%) increase of total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. The associations appeared to be stronger in older people (aged≥75years), in females and during the warm season. To our knowledge, this is the longest PM2.5 health study in time duration in China. Our findings provide new information on the adverse health effects of PM2.5, and may have implications for environmental policy making and standard setting in China. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The rapid economic growth in China has caused ever-increasing pollution and gradual deterioration of surface water quality over the whole territory of China since 1978. Along with it, there have been 130 environmental protection policies publicized and enacted. Unfortunately, even though these contradictory phenomena have coexisted for almost three decades, the cause analysis and the effective evaluation of policy measures are still rare. The Jiaxing region, a lowland located at the Taihu Lake watershed, is a typical representative of this dilemma and was proposed as a case study area for an assessment on the effectiveness of the environmental policy measures mentioned above. The pollutant loads originating from point pollution sources were discharged into rivers at fixed in-stream sites, while pollutant loads from non-point pollution sources in rural areas were assumed to be rushed into rivers by stormwater runoff. The environmental policy measures concerning water quality in the Jiaxing region were specified quantitatively as parameters for estimating the variation of pollutant loads. The base case and other three cases with the effects of policy measures were then simulated by the surface water quality models. The results show that a significant improvement of the surface water quality can be achieved by controlling the non-point pollution in rural areas and the point pollution over the whole area, if the water protection policies are sustainable and executed completely, and if the local government is active in their administrative, supervising and educational responsibilities and the farmers assume voluntary activities on rural pollution control. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]