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Abstract Severe air pollution problems have led to a rise in the Chinese public's concern. Risk perception is one of the most important indicators of the public's concern about air pollution. However, there existed few studies exploring the spatial distribution of risk perception. To fill the gap, psychometric paradigm methods was adopted to assess the public's risk perception of air pollution. A nationwide empirical study was conducted from December 2016 to February 2017 and 10,653 completed questionnaires were collected. According to a series of screening strategies, 9744 qualified questionnaires were included as a sample, which covered 31 China provinces (Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan were not included in this study). We found that 45% of the respondents were dissatisfied with the current air quality, many respondents concerned a lot about air pollution (76%) and worried about the harmful consequences of being exposed to air pollution (86%). There was significant difference in the public's risk perception and attitude toward air pollution among different regions: the respondents in the northeast region, northern coastal region, eastern coastal region and Middle Yellow river region perceived higher air pollution risk and lower satisfaction with air quality than other regions; and the public's trust in the government increased from coastal regions to inland regions. In addition, the hierarchical linear model (HLM) was used to explore the effects of demographic, environmental and economic factors on public risk perception and attitude toward air pollution. Based on this, the characteristics of sensitive populations regarding air pollution were identified. What's more, we found that PM 2.5 has a positive influence on perceived risk factor (PR) and can strengthen the positive correlation between PR and satisfaction with air quality (SAQ). Finally, policy implications behind these results were discussed, which can provide references and lay the foundation for policymakers and subsequent researchers. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • The Chinese public's overall risk perception for air pollution was surveyed. • Spatial distribution of risk perception for air pollution was described. • Hierarchical linear model was used to analyze influencing factors. • Spatial difference should be considered to avoid misassessment of risk perception. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Environmental policies are implemented in complex socio-economic settings, where numerous stakeholders hold different and potentially conflicting values. In addition to being scientifically well-founded, the experts' recommendations on which these policies are based therefore also need to be operational and legitimate. Multi-criteria decision-analysis (MCDA) is often used to solve management problems, but studies in the literature rarely place importance on the way stakeholders perceive researchers' interventions (which implies a lack of legitimacy), and most managers lack the skills to reproduce routinely the operations involved (which implies a lack of operationality). We use MCDA methodology in a different approach: "meta-decision-analysis" (Meta-DA). As researchers, instead of striving to identify the best way for us to solve managers' problems, we identify the actors (the decision-aid providers, DAPs) who are best placed to help managers, and we provide DAPs with the necessary tools. Implementing this approach involves three tasks: T1—identifying a legitimate DAP who will provide decision-aid to managers in routine policy implementations; T2— identifying, among the decisions involved in solving managers' problems, those for which managers and the stakeholders concerned consider that some actors have particular legitimacy; T3—designing tools that are compatible with both the DAP's skills and legitimacy constraints. We applied this approach, structured around T1–3, to wetland prioritization in a French administrative region (Bourgogne-Franche-Comté). This application illustrates the feasibility and usefulness of our approach. Our approach entails recommendations for various kinds of actors involved in environmental policies: For researchers, it provides a research agenda to develop new applications of MCDA. For managers and potential DAPs, it suggests that, for some of the problems they face collectively, they should seek the help of researchers to implement a Meta-DA approach. For policy-makers, it suggests that, by encouraging Meta-DA, for example through dedicated funding schemes, they could improve the effectiveness of environmental policies. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • Researchers's advices on environmental policies should be operational and legitimate. • We introduce a multi-criteria decision-analysis approach satisfying these criteria. • It identifies a legitimate decision aiding provider and provides him usable tools. • It fosters applications of advances in decision science to environmental policies. • We apply this approach to prioritize wetlands in the Bourgogne-Franche-Comté region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The study assesses the possible impact of first pillar reform of the Common Agricultural Policy by focusing on the new greening rules defined by the recent Omnibus regulation. The analysis was carried out on a Farm Accountancy Data Network sample of Italian farms using by a Positive Mathematical Programming model. Moreover, our analysis is stratified by geographical area and altimetric level and uses some additional environmental and social indicators beyond those economic. The results indicate that the new greening rules generate positive but limited environmental impacts, which reinforce those already determined by the previous CAP reform, for example the use of chemical fertilizers is further reduced. These additional positive environmental impacts are obtained with very limited income reductions. Yet, the impacts on the various geographical areas and their altimetric levels are different, and sometimes controversial. For example, there is a growth in the use of pesticides in the northern plains, due to the increase in rice and soybean areas. On the other hand, agricultural employment in Southern Italy decreases, where agriculture is an important source of employment for the rural population. This reduction also affects the mountain areas, thus accentuating the already high risk of abandonment. All this suggests that more targeted measures will have to be implemented in the future planning of agricultural policy, so as to shape the various actions according to the characteristics of the various rural areas, as well as to the specific priorities of the Member State. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • We evaluate the impacts of new greening practices and of CAP first pillar reform. • Net income increases in particular in the mountain areas of Northern Italy. • The pesticide use increases in the intensive areas of the plain of Northern Italy. • Employment decreases especially in the most depressed areas of Southern Italy. • The future CAP should adapt more to the needs of the various territories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract As a matter of policy, minimizing human health and environmental risks associated with pesticide use is a major challenge but necessary for improving agricultural sustainability. Efficient and effective policies that encourage the use of less risky pesticides, such as pesticide taxes, necessitate a precise and realistic quantification of potential adverse effects. Various indicators are currently utilized in policies and they focus mainly on a purely quantitative dimension of the pesticides used, which can lead potentially to unfavorable outcomes of pesticide policies. A unique dataset applied to pesticide use by Swiss farmers in winter wheat and potato production, demonstrates that on average the two most important quantitative indicators show a significant correlation with pesticide risks as expressed by the Danish Load Indicator. However, they have almost no explanatory power for extreme risks (e.g. most intensive use patterns for pesticides with unfavorable toxicity profiles). Results remain stable over a range of aggregation levels, from application- to farm-level indicators of pesticide use. These findings render the commonly used, quantitative indicators ineffective to reduce potential environmental and human health risks of pesticides and, in the worst case, lead to misinformed market-based pesticide policies consequential to National Action Plans. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • Current pesticide policies are mainly based on quantitative indicators. • We compare consistency of quantitative indicators with pesticide risks. • Highly detailed panel data on pesticide use of Swiss crop farmers is used. • We find a good average consistency but no explanatory power for extreme risks. • The use of purely quantitative indicators might lead to adverse policy outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The impact of human civilization on the environment is now obvious. With the rapidly growing human population, the problem of human consumption becomes more and more urgent. It is therefore necessary to try to change the patterns of human life and find a more sustainable way of living. To achieve the goal of sustainable society efficiently, it is crucial to identify hot spots for possible impact reduction. Even though several tools now exist, such as footprint calculators, they usually have a narrow perspective, calculating impact only on a single environmental problem. In this study, the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method was employed, to measure the environmental impact of human consumption across the entire life-cycle as well as a wide range of impact categories. The use of LCA to identify the major problems of personal consumption is presented in a case study of an average inhabitant of the Czech Republic. Data of average personal consumption were collected and an LCA model was created in GaBi 8 software. Characterization results, obtained using ReCiPe 2016 (E) methodology, show the environmentally dominant segments of consumption which are: household energy consumption – where the dominant process is heating; and food consumption – where the dominant processes are meat and dairy production. This study provides a thorough impact analysis and identifies the hots spots, where actions should be taken. The results provide the necessary basic data for policy-makers, so that steps to reduce individual personal environmental impact can be taken. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • The ecological crisis is linked to growing population and consumption. • Effective change of personal consumption patterns is necessary for sustainability. • Proposal of LCA as a tool for calculation of personal environmental impact • Energy consumption and food consumption show the biggest environmental impact. • Diet change shows highest potential for the environmental impact reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This study re-analysed 14 semi-structured interviews with policy officials from the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) to explore the use of a variety of regulatory instruments and different levels of risk across 14 policy domains and 18 separately named risks. Interviews took place within a policy environment of a better regulation agenda and of broader regulatory reform. Of 619 (n) coded references to 5 categories of regulatory instrument, ‘command and control’ regulation (n = 257) and support mechanisms (n = 118) dominated the discussions, with a preference for ‘command and control’ cited in 8 of the policy domains. A framing analysis revealed officials' views on instrument effectiveness, including for sub-categories of the 5 key instruments. Views were mixed, though notably positive for economic instruments including taxation, fiscal instruments and information provision. An overlap analysis explored officials' mapping of public environmental risks to instrument types suited to their management. While officials frequently cite risk concepts generally within discussions, the extent of overlap for risks of specific significance was low across all risks. Only ‘command and control’ was mapped to risks of moderate significance in likelihood and impact severity. These results show that policy makers still prefer ‘command and control’ approaches when a certainty of outcome is sought and that alternative means are sought for lower risk situations. The detailed reasons for selection, including the mapping of certain instruments to specific risk characteristics, is still developing. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • 14 interviews with policy officials re-analysed instrument selection and environmental risk. • Positive, negative and neutral framings illustrated how instruments were perceived. • Low overlap between instrument category and risk significance suggests other influences in play. • Improved knowledge exchange is recommended for risk analysis and policy communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Land use change can result in variations in ecosystem services (ESs) and their relationships. Studying the temporal dynamics of ESs and their relationships can support scenario analyses that provide the theoretical basis for policy decisions and regional ecosystem management. Previous studies have revealed the trade-offs between two ESs on multiple scales, while the trade-offs between multiple ESs require further analysis. Furthermore, trade-offs are rarely considered in scenario constructions, which weakens the ability of scenarios to inform land use policy. In this study, the InVEST model was applied to assess carbon sequestration, habitat quality, nutrient retention, sediment retention and seasonal water yield at five-year intervals from 1990 to 2015 and to construct five simulated scenarios that represented different ecological restoration and land reclamation policies. The results indicated that the Grain for Green Project (GFGP) increased all ESs, with seasonal water yield increasing by approximately 1.29 times above the initial stage. However, decreasing cropland area reduced the correlations between ESs both in trade-offs and synergies. Among all scenarios studied, the Returning Cropland to Grassland trade-off scenario had the maximum effect, while the natural succession to shrubland scenario had a minimum effect at the pixel level. Except for the land reclamation scenario, the overall ES benefits in the other scenarios exceeded the benefits received in 2015. Given the extent of watershed areas impacted by different overall ES benefit and trade-off situations, the Returning Cropland to Grassland scenario appears to best reduce the impacts of the worst situation compared to 2015, reducing the negative impacts by 22.6%. We suggest that scenarios that combine both overall ESs values and their trade-offs can support more effective and efficient land use decisions. Graphic abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • We evaluated five regulating ESs and simulate five scenarios using the InVEST model. • Seasonal water yield showed a distinct increase after the GFGP was implemented. • Increased ESs and decreased cropland reduce correlations among them after 2000. • The Returning Cropland to Grassland scenario is optimal for future land use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Desert oases are fragile agrarian areas, very vulnerable to sand encroachment by wind. Ensuring their conservation highly depends on our capacity to identify sand encroachment patterns, e.g. the origin of sand and its spatial distribution in the irrigated plots. Here we show how to tackle this issue using the case study of Erg Chebbi (Morocco), where two oases (Hassilabiad and Merzouga) are surrounded by dunes, Hamada and alluvial sediments from the Wadi Ziz. We combine field interviews with the study of wind dynamics, sediment sampling, Particle Size Distribution (PSD) tests and End-Member Modelling Analysis (EMMA). We observe that the most relevant contributor to sand encroachment is the Wadi Ziz (30%), followed by the Hamada (28%), an undetermined source of dust (25%), and the Erg dunes (16%). These genetically different sediments cluster unevenly in the oases, indicating the existence of areas with contrasting degrees of exposure to sedimentary sources. The results allow to define on solid grounds which sand source areas should be stabilized first in order to obtain the greatest reduction in sand encroachment. Our approach also provides policy-makers with better tools to identify which spots are specially vulnerable to accumulate a specific sediment, thus allowing for a more nuanced management of sand in oasis environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interactions between human beings and the built environment are mediated by physiological and psychological stimuli, which may interfere in the perception and satisfaction related to indoor comfort variables. The study aims to explore the relationship between daylighting features and possible impacts on humans in regards to lighting preferences. The influence of different daylighting configurations, glazed façade orientation and season of the year on lighting preferences in human beings was evaluated by means of tests in a rotating climate with monitoring of environmental variables, developed by the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany. The sample, n = 16, is composed of German male students (height SD = 1.80 m, SD = 0.06; body weight SD = 80 kg, SD = 8.9; and age SD = 24.9 years, SD = 3.6). Under controlled thermal conditions (PMV approx. ±0.5), participants remained in two office-like environments over 5 h (8:00 am to 1:00 pm - local time) three days in a row, for three seasons of the year, totaling nine days of data collection per participant. Definitions of glazed façade orientations for the experimental rounds were done by means of computer simulations. Objective variables were measured by spectroradiometers at desk height, with sensor h = ca. 0.90 m, and comfortmeters. Preferences of daylighting features was assessed by a questionnaire with Likert-scale alternatives, administered online at 8:50 am, 10:30 am and 12:30 pm. Objective and subjective data were analyzed statistically (Spearman's rho, rs), suggesting possible correlations between lighting preferences and objective variables, including: E (lx), CCT (K), DWl (nm) and the circadian metric a cv (circadian action factor). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change policy confronts with many challenges and opportunities. Thus the aim of this study was to analyse the impact of gross domestic product (hereinafter GDP), trade, foreign direct investment (hereinafter FDI), energy efficiency (hereinafter EF) and renewable energy (hereinafter RE) consumption on greenhouse gas (hereinafter GHG) emissions in 1990–2013 and reveal the main challenges and opportunities of climate policy for which policy makers should take the most attention under different stages of economic development. The results showed that the economic growth significantly contributed to the increase of GHG emissions and remains the main challenge in all groups of countries. Analysing the trade impact on pollution, the results revealed that the growth of export (hereinafter EX) significantly reduced GHG emissions only in high income countries. However, the export remains a challenge in low income countries. FDI insignificantly determined the changes in GHG emissions in all groups of countries. Meanwhile, energy efficiency and share of renewable energy consumption are the main opportunities of climate change policy because they reduce the GHG emissions in all groups of countries. Thus, technological processes, the increase of energy efficiency and the shift from carbon to renewable energy sources are the main tools implementing the climate change policy in all countries despite the different stage of economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To assess the quality of a water environment, an in-depth analysis of temporal patterns of contaminant concentrations in water body should be carried out based on unbiased water quality datasets. In this study, we developed a modified log-linear model to account for non-stationary seasonal variations of contaminant concentrations over multiple periods. The model was applied to analyze temporal changes of the Ammonia Nitrogen (AN) concentration at Middle Reaches of Huaihe River (MRHR) and two major tributaries, Shaying River (SR) and Guo River (GR). The modified model outperformed the original models and fitted the data well with Pearson correlation coefficients ranging from 0.67 to 0.86. Temporal patterns of AN concentrations, loads and sources were identified from 1998 to 2015 in connection to the implementation of Five-Year Plans (FYPs, policies for controlling water pollution) in the Huaihe River Basin (HRB). The results show that the AN concentration experienced a significant decrease. Since FYPs focused on controlling AN point sources, the proportion of AN loads derived from point sources decreased from 48–86% to 1–17% in the MRHR and from 66–92% to 2–56% in the SR and GR. However, rebounds of AN concentration occurred in the first year of each FYP period possibly due to discontinuity of the policy implementation over the transition between two consecutive FYPs. High AN concentration anomalies were found in flood seasons, related to pollution discharge beyond limits and/or irrational regulation of sluices. These results have implications for future pollution control policies in the HRB, particularly, the need to reduce the upper limits of contaminant loads for flood seasons, continuity of the policies implementation, reduction of non-point source pollution, rational sluice regulation and integrated pollution prevention programs. The developed model and approach are applicable to other polluted river basins to facilitate water quality assessment and evaluation of pollution control policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Umia-Grove Intertidal Complex is located within the Ria of Arousa (NW Iberian Peninsula). Out of its significance for wintering shorebirds it has been included in the Ramsar List of Wetlands of International Importance as well as in international protection networks such as the European Natura 2000 and Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas-BirdLife International. In a sediment analysis conducted in the year 1999, the wetland was found to have been contaminated by potentially toxic trace metals, to wit: Cr, Cu, Ni, and Pb. Sediment samples retrieved in 2014 to make an updated assessment of the condition of the ecosystem showed evidence of the presence of selected trace elements, namely, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn, within or slightly above the background ranges of local, regional, and general references. In the 15-year time frame between the two samplings there has been noticeable change in the relationship between nature and society as a consequence of the entry into force of a number of regulations aimed at avoiding the emission of contaminants; among others, the ban of Pb in gasoline, the deployment of wastewater treatment plants according to the European Water Framework Directive, and the limitation of the use of Cu pesticides. With the ensuing drop of human pressure, the self-purifying capacity of the ecosystem has effectively contributed to the wetland's recovery. Nevertheless, the application of a normalized enrichment factor to the more recent set of samples suggests the presence of relict low contamination by Cd, Cu, and Ni in localized areas. The compared analysis of the wetland condition in the two years is a sign of the success of the policies and regulations for environmental protection, but further work and more effectiveness are necessary in order to preserve threatened ecosystems of such importance as the Umia-Grove wetland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research underlines the need to improve water management policies for areas linked to confined karstic aquifers subjected to intensive exploitation, and to develop additional efforts towards monitoring their subsidence evolution. We analyze subsidence related to intensive use of groundwater in a confined karstic aquifer, through the use of the InSAR technique, by the southern coast of Spain (Costa del Sol). Carbonates are overlain by an unconfined detritic aquifer with interlayered high transmissivity rocks, in connection with the Mediterranean Sea, where the water level is rather stable. Despite this, an accumulated deformation in the line-of-sight (LOS) direction greater than −100 mm was observed by means of the ERS-1/2 (1992–2000) and Envisat (2003–2009) satellite SAR sensors. During this period, the Costa del Sol experienced a major population increase due to the expansion of the tourism industry, with the consequent increase in groundwater exploitation. The maximum LOS displacement rates recorded during both time spans are respectively −6 mm/yr and −11 mm/yr, respectively. During the entire period, there was an accumulated descent of the confined water level of 140 m, and several fluctuations of more than 80 m correlating with the subsidence trend observed for the whole area. Main sedimentary depocenters (up to 800 m), revealed by gravity prospecting, partly coincide with areas of subsidence maxima; yet ground deformation is also influenced by other factors, the main ones being the fine-grained facies distribution and rapid urbanization due to high touristic pressure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the significance of wastewater treatment and disposal for society and the economy together with the omnipresence of standards in the sector, we studied the development and prospects of the rules governing standardization in the German municipal wastewater sector. We thereby provide a detailed description of sector-specific committee-based standardization and significantly contribute to the understanding of this complex arena. We find that the German Association for Water Wastewater and Waste (DWA) has significantly improved its rules on standardization over time by aligning them closer to the generally accepted superordinate standardization principles. However, by focusing on theoretical findings of committee decision-making and committee composition, we argue that there is still scope for improvement with respect to rule reading and rule compliance. We show that the incentives at work in standardization committees are manifold, whereas the representation of the different stakeholder groups needs' remains unbalanced. Due to vested interests and potential strategic behavior of the various agents involved in standardization rule compliance does not necessarily happen naturally. To this end, we claim that the implementation of monitoring mechanisms can be a significant contribution to the institutional design of standardization and briefly discuss the advantages and disadvantages of different schemes. Finally, we show that there is ample need for future research on the optimal design of such a scheme. Even though the analysis relates specifically to the DWA our claims apply to a wide range of standards development organizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deltas are precarious environments experiencing significant biophysical, and socio-economic changes with the ebb and flow of seasons (including with floods and drought), with infrastructural developments (such as dikes and polders), with the movement of people, and as a result of climate and environmental variability and change. Decisions are being taken about the future of deltas and about the provision of adaptation investment to enable people and the environment to respond to the changing climate and related changes. The paper presents a framework to identify options for, and trade-offs between, long term adaptation strategies in deltas. Using a three step process, we: (1) identify current policy-led adaptations actions in deltas by conducting literature searches on current observable adaptations, potential transformational adaptations and government policy; (2) develop narratives of future adaptation policy directions that take into account investment cost of adaptation and the extent to which significant policy change/political effort is required; and (3) explore trade-offs that occur within each policy direction using a subjective weighting process developed during a collaborative expert workshop. We conclude that the process of developing policy directions for adaptation can assist policy makers in scoping the spectrum of options that exist, while enabling them to consider their own willingness to make significant policy changes within the delta and to initiate transformative change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely accepted that temperatures is associated with cardiovascular mortality, however, few studies have explored the effects of temperature on years of life lost (YLL) from cardiovascular mortality in China under future global warming scenarios. Therefore, there is an urgent need to obtain projections of YLL from cardiovascular diseases. Here we applied nineteen global-scale climate models (GCMs) and three Representative Concentration Pathway emission scenarios (RCPs) in the 2050s and 2070s for temperature-related YLL projection in Tianjin, China. We found the relationships between daily maximum temperatures with YLL from cardiovascular mortality were basically U-shaped. We observed increasing net annual YLL across a range of multiple models under different climate scenarios, suggesting that increasing heat-related YLL from cardiovascular mortality could offset decreasing cold-related YLL from cardiovascular mortality. The largest temperature-related YLL from cardiovascular mortality were observed under the RCP8.5 scenario and increased more rapidly in the 2070s versus the 2050s. Monthly analyses of percent changes in YLL from cardiovascular mortality showed that the largest percent increases occurred from May to September. If warm adaptation occurs, only the adverse effects under RCP2.6 could be fully offset in both 2050 and 2070. Our exploration provided further evidence for the potential health impacts of global warming and highlighted that government should develop environmental policies for future health risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Addressing climate change is one of the greatest environmental challenges. Due to the impact of cities to energy consumption, the involvement of the local authorities in environmental policies is rapidly increasing. The Covenant of Mayors (CoM), launched by the European Commission , is an urban initiative aimed at reducing CO 2 emissions. The signatories have to compile the greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) balance of their territory and, to do so, they can use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) or the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). Moreover, the signatories have to define strategies to reduce the GHG emissions. In this context, authors estimate the GHG balance of an Italian municipality using both methodologies in order to compare the results. In detail, the first application is the IPCC, the second one is the LCA approach for which two cases are analysed: i) LCA with fossil fuels and electricity GHG emission factors based on the European Reference Life Cycle Database, LCA (I); and ii) LCA with a site – specific GHG emissions for electricity generation, LCA (II). They propose energy strategies in order to quantify the achievable GHG emissions reduction by the exploitation of the renewable energy resources. The study shows that the GHG emissions results obtained with the LCA approach are higher by 20% than those calculated with the IPCC approach. This difference is relevant and it could be significant in identifying effective climate strategies. The LCA methodology ensures a systemic accounting of emissions, then, it can be more effective in order to achieve GHG emissions reduction at global level. The examined energy strategies allow for reducing the GHG emissions of about 7% of the total reduction required by the CoM. This confirms that a preliminary evaluation of the strategies is useful for the allocation of the financial resources to the environmental policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystem services are the benefits people obtain from ecosystems, and ecosystem services trade-offs have been widely applied to the development of land-use policy. Although previous studies have focused on trade-offs of ecosystem services, a scenario approach has been seldom used. The scenario approach can reveal the changes of ecosystem services for different land-use patterns in the future, and is of great significance for land-use decisions and ecosystem management. Based on the actual situation of deteriorating water quality and dwindling water supply in the Erhai Lake Basin of southwest China, this study put forward to convert paddy land to dry land (PLDL) in the basin, and simulated its potential impact on ecosystem services. Taking environmental pollution, social impact, economic benefit and residential participation into consideration, four scenarios of PLDL were designed. Then, four ecosystem services (water purification, water yield, soil conservation and rice production) were calculated for each scenario. The optimal scenario of PLDL in the Erhai Lake Basin was identified by trade-offs of the four ecosystem services. The results showed that the total nitrogen export could be reduced by 42.07% and water yield can be increased by 5.61% after converting 100% of paddy lands to dry land, thereby greatly improving the water quality and increasing the water yield of Erhai Lake. However, PLDL involving 100% of paddy lands also increased the sediment export by 17.22%, and eliminated rice production in the region. By comparing the four PLDL scenarios for converting just 50% of paddy lands, the residential participation scenario was identified to be the best choice for PLDL implementation because it achieved the best level of water purification and had the smallest negative effect on other ecosystem services. The optimal scenario for each township showed spatial differentiation, and there were conflicts between the optimal scenarios at basin scale and township scale, suggesting that the object and the spatial-temporal scale should be taken into consideration in land-use decisions using ecosystem services trade-offs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing urban air pollution level in Indian cities is one of the major concerns for policy makers due to its impact on public health. The growth in population and increase in associated motorised road transport demand is one of the major causes of increasing air pollution in most urban areas along with other sources e.g., road dust, construction dust, biomass burning etc. The present study documents the development of an urban local air quality management (ULAQM) framework at urban hotspots (non-attainment area) and a pathway for the flow of information from goal setting to policy making. The ULAQM also includes assessment and management of air pollution episodic conditions at these hotspots, which currently available city/regional-scale air quality management plans do not address. The prediction of extreme pollutant concentrations using a hybrid model differentiates the ULAQM from other existing air quality management plans. The developed ULAQM framework has been applied and validated at one of the busiest traffic intersections in Delhi and Chennai cities. Various scenarios have been tested targeting the effective reductions in elevated levels of NO x and PM 2.5 concentrations. The results indicate that a developed ULAQM framework is capable of providing an evidence-based graded action to reduce ambient pollution levels within the specified standard level at pre-identified locations. The ULAQM framework methodology is generalised and therefore can be applied to other non-attainment areas of the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Utilities in larger cities have to make complex decisions planning future investments in urban water infrastructure. Changes are driven by physical water stress or political targets for environmental water flows e.g. through the implementation of the European water framework directive. To include these environmental, economic and social sustainability dimensions we introduce a novel multi-criteria assessment method for evaluation of water supply technologies. The method is presented and demonstrated for four alternatives for water supply based on groundwater, rain- & stormwater or seawater developed for augmenting Copenhagen's current groundwater based water supply. To identify the most sustainable technology, we applied rank order distribution weights to a multi-criteria decision analysis to combine the impact assessments of environment, economy and society. The three dimensions were assessed using 1) life-cycle assessment, 2) cost calculations taking operation and maintenance into account and 3) the multi-criteria decision analysis method Analytical hierarchy process. Specialists conducted the life-cycle assessment and cost calculations and the multi-criteria decision analyses were based on a stakeholder workshop gathering stakeholders relevant for the specific case. The workshop reached consensus on three sets of ranked criteria. Each set represented stakeholder perspectives with first priority given to one of the three sustainability dimensions or categories. The workshop reached consensus and when the highest weight was assigned to the environmental dimension of sustainability then the alternative of ‘Rain- & stormwater harvesting’ was the most sustainable water supply technology; when the highest weight was assigned to the economy or society dimensions then an alternative with ‘Groundwater abstraction extended with compensating actions’ was considered the most sustainable water supply technology. Across all three sets of ranked weights, the establishment of new well fields is considered the least sustainable alternative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental contaminants can have negative effects on human health and land, air and water resources. Consequently, there have been significant advances in regulation for protecting the environment in developed countries including the development of remediation frameworks and guidelines. On the other hand, fewer studies have been reported on the risks and health effects of contaminants in developing regions and there is scarce information regarding contaminated land assessment and environmental remediation. Colombia is an important emerging economy and has started to take the first steps towards the development of a framework for the management of contaminated sites and there are opportunities for the country to learn from countries with well-established frameworks such as the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) and for international collaboration with organisations such as CRC for Contamination Assessment and Remediation of the Environment (CARE). We review main pollution issues, current status of contaminated land management in Colombia to identify the gaps in policy and regulation. We also review the UK and US contaminated land policies and regulations to identify the elements of those experiences that could support progress in the country. Finally, we propose recommendations (e.g. risk based approach, soil screening criteria, clean-up funding, liability) for Colombia that could support further development and implementation of a more effective contaminated land management framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine ecosystems are increasingly threatened by the cumulative effects of multiple human pressures. Cumulative effect assessments (CEAs) are needed to inform environmental policy and guide ecosystem-based management. Yet, CEAs are inherently complex and seldom linked to real-world management processes. Therefore we propose entrenching CEAs in a risk management process, comprising the steps of risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation. We provide guidance to operationalize a risk-based approach to CEAs by describing for each step guiding principles and desired outcomes, scientific challenges and practical solutions. We reviewed the treatment of uncertainty in CEAs and the contribution of different tools and data sources to the implementation of a risk based approach to CEAs. We show that a risk-based approach to CEAs decreases complexity, allows for the transparent treatment of uncertainty and streamlines the uptake of scientific outcomes into the science-policy interface. Hence, its adoption can help bridging the gap between science and decision-making in ecosystem-based management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 1950s, select military and political leaders have had the capacity to kill all or nearly all human life on Earth. The number of people entrusted with this power grows each year through proliferation and the rise of new political leaders. If humans continue to maintain and develop nuclear weapons, it is highly probable that a nuclear exchange will occur again at some point in the future. This nuclear exchange may or may not annihilate the human species, but it will cause catastrophic effects on the biosphere. The international community has attempted to resolve this existential problem via treaties that control and potentially eliminate nuclear weapons, however, these treaties target only nuclear weapons, leaving the use of war as a normalized means for settling conflict. As long as war exists as a probable future, nations will be under pressure to develop more powerful weapons. Thus, we argue that the elimination of nuclear weapons alone is not a stable, long-term strategy. A far more secure strategy would be the elimination of war as a means of settling international disputes. Therefore, those concerned about environmental sustainability or the survival of the biosphere should work to abolish war. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study provides an innovative process-based modelling approach using the SWAT model and shows its application to support the implementation of the European environmental policies in large river basins. The approach involves several pioneering modelling aspects: the inclusion of current management practices; an innovative calibration and validation methodology of streamflow and water quality; a sequential calibration starting from crop yields, followed by streamflow and nutrients; and the use of concentrations instead of loads in the calibration. The approach was applied in the Danube River Basin (800,000 km 2 ), the second largest river basin in Europe, that is under great nutrients pressure. The model was successfully calibrated and validated at multiple gauged stations for the period 1995–2009. About 70% and 61% of monthly streamflow stations reached satisfactory performances in the calibration and validation datasets respectively. N-NO 3 monthly concentrations were in good agreement with the observations, albeit SWAT could not represent accurately the spatial variability of the denitrification process. TN and TP concentrations were also well captured. Yet, local discrepancies were detected across the Basin. Baseflow and surface runoff were the main pathways of water pollution. The main sinks of TN and TP diffuse emissions were plant uptake which captured 58% of TN and 92% of TP sources, then soil retention (35% of TN and 2% of TP), riparian filter strips (2% both for TN and TP) and river retention (2% of TN and 4% of TP). Nitrates in the aquifer were estimated to be around 3% of TN sources. New reliable “state-of-the-art” knowledge of water and nutrients fluxes in the Danube Basin were thus provided to be used for assessing the impact of best management practices and for providing support to the implementation of the European Environmental Directives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystems worldwide have been subject to new or intensified energy development facilitated by technologies such as horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, activity that has generated concern for air, water, biotic, and social resources. Application of these technologies in the development of the Bakken oil patch has made it one of the most productive petroleum plays in North America, causing unprecedented landscape industrialization of otherwise rural, agricultural counties in western North Dakota. The region is isolated, and development impacts have not been well-studied. To identify concerns of citizens of the Bakken and determine how research and policy might support them, we conducted a two-part study: First, we held focus groups with resource management and community leaders in three major oil-producing counties. Second, we used an outline of the major concerns expressed by focus group members as a survey for landowners and farm/ranch operators. We found little relationship between survey respondents' reported categorization of energy impacts and actual land area impacted, suggesting factors such as attitude towards development, degree of compensation, and level of disturbance are relevant. Landowners agreed with focus groups on the nature of relationships between energy companies and locals and development impacts on infrastructure and communities; those reporting greater impacts tended to agree more strongly. But many specific problems described in focus groups were not widely reported in the survey, suggesting energy-community relationships can be improved through state-level public policy and respect from energy companies for locals and their way of life. Consideration of these concerns in future energy policy—both in the Bakken and worldwide—could reduce social tension, lessen environmental impact, and increase overall social, economic, and environmental efficiency in energy development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rivers in urban areas have been associated with water quality problems because of the practice of discharging untreated domestic and industrial waste into the water bodies. However, to what extent the public can identify specific environmental problems and whether people are ready to cope with potential risks is to a great extent unknown. Public environmental awareness of factors underpinning the pollution of rivers and approaches for reducing it were studied in Rasht City of Guilan Province in northern Iran, with Zarjub and Goharrud rivers as a case study. Data were collected from residents on the banks of the studied rivers using a questionnaire. Industrial areas, hospitals, and poultry farms were perceived as the main factors deteriorating water pollution of Zarjub and Goharrud rivers in Guilan Province. The discharge of urban sewage into the rivers was the second most important polluting factor. Most residents on the banks of Zarjub and Goharrud rivers showed high interest in the conservation of the environment. Overall, 62.7% of the residents had moderate, 20% had high, and 4% had very high environmental awareness. Families and mass media (TV and radio) were perceived of being the most important sources of information of family members concerning environmental awareness. According to the residents, the main approach for alleviating the pollution of Zarjub and Goharrud rivers were creating green spaces, dredging the rivers, establishing a water purifying system, and establishing a waste incinerator with a separation system (based on municipal planning). The public in the study area appeared well prepared to cope with the risks of water pollution, but further improving environmental awareness of the community can be a first step for preventing environmental degradation. The positive attitudes of the residents towards environmental conservation, the use of proper information sources, and practical training in the context of extension services can be effective in conserving water resources in urban areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Rio Paraiba do Sul is a highly polluted river in south central Brazil, that is contaminated by industrial, agricultural and municipal wastes, as well as being impacted by dams, water withdrawals and deforestation in the watershed. Since only very intensive and farreaching environmental policies could result in water quality improvements, valuing the restoration of the river presents many unique challenges. We develop a choice-modeling approach to valuation of the restoration of this river, with general tightening of environmental policy as the policy, and an increase in prices as the payment vehicle. The estimation is performed in willingness to pay space, adjusting for heterogeneity of tastes. We find that respondents, who are primarily low income, exhibit higher willingness to pay for complete restoration than moderate restoration, higher for moderate restoration in comparison to minimal restoration, and that they prefer restoration sooner, rather than later. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strategic risk appraisal (SRA) has been applied to compare diverse policy level risks to and from the environment in England and Wales. Its application has relied on expert-informed assessments of the potential consequences from residual risks that attract policy attention at the national scale. Here we compare consequence assessments, across environmental, economic and social impact categories that draw on ‘expert’- and ‘literature-based’ analyses of the evidence for 12 public risks appraised by Government. For environmental consequences there is reasonable agreement between the two sources of assessment, with expert-informed assessments providing a narrower dispersion of impact severity and with median values similar in scale to those produced by an analysis of the literature. The situation is more complex for economic consequences, with a greater spread in the median values, less consistency between the two assessment types and a shift toward higher severity values across the risk portfolio. For social consequences, the spread of severity values is greater still, with no consistent trend between the severities of impact expressed by the two types of assessment. For the latter, the findings suggest the need for a fuller representation of socioeconomic expertise in SRA and the workshops that inform SRA output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an information carrier and communication medium, indicators provide useful decision-making assistance in setting process goals and effectively reaching the goals. The main focus of this article is to investigate indicators' role in influencing planning through Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) especially related to Chinese experiences. From the perspective of planning and decision-making theory, the influence on planning is studied as influence of planning structure and influence of planning actors. Such a conceptual framework is applied in order to demonstrate how the use of indicators can influence planning through a SEA process. The study holds two empirical levels. On a general level, based on an online survey, this article investigates SEA practitioners' experiences in using indicators. On a case level, two urban plans are selected to provide more detailed experiences. The case level investigation is based on a documentary study and individual interviews with SEA practitioners/planners. By exploring how indicators influence planning through the structure of and the actors within SEA, this study tries to provide an overview of indicators' role in SEA. The results indicate that indicators are perceived as a useful tool in the Chinese SEA system. By improving and simplifying the procedures of SEA, the indicators exert more structural influence on SEA and on plan making. On the other hand, indicators are also shown to have more influence through political actors than found among technical actors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting fire spread and behavior correctly is crucial to minimize the dramatic consequences of wildfires. However, our capability of accurately predicting fire spread is still very limited, undermining the utility of such simulations to support decision-making. Improving fire spread predictions for fire management purposes, by using higher quality input data or enhanced models, can be expensive, unfeasible or even impossible. Fire managers would benefit from fast and inexpensive ways of improving their decision-making. In the present work, we focus on i) understanding if fire spread predictions can be improved through model parameter calibration based on information collected from a set of large historical wildfires in Portugal; and ii) understanding to what extent decreasing parametric uncertainty can counterbalance the impact of input data uncertainty. Our results obtained with the Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) modeling system show that fire spread predictions can be continuously improved by ‘learning’ from past wildfires. The uncertainty contained in the major input variables (wind speed and direction, ignition location and fuel models) can be ‘swept under the rug’ through the use of more appropriate parameter sets. The proposed framework has a large potential to improve future fire spread predictions, increasing their reliability and usefulness to support fire management and decision making processes, thus potentially reducing the negative impacts of wildfires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Livestock manure is commonly applied on agricultural land for its fertilising properties. However, the presence of toxic substances in animal manure such as pathogens, antibiotics and heavy metals, can result in damages to ecosystems and human health. To date, although relevant for policy-making, e.g. regulation framing, their releases to agricultural land have been incompletely and inconsistently quantified at global and national scales. Here, we thus developed a generic framework for estimating such releases based on the quantities of manure applied and concentrations of toxic substances. Applying this framework, we built a global release inventory for arsenic, cadmium, chromium, copper, mercury, nickel, lead and zinc differentiated into 215 countries and 15 years (period 2000–2014). Comparisons with more narrowly-focused inventories showed overall consistency in our inventory results, although a number of uncertainties and limitations were identified. In particular, the need for harmonising sampling and analytical methods for estimating heavy metal contents in manure and generating more country-differentiated data, especially for developing countries, should be prioritised by future research studies. Using life cycle impact assessment methods, it was additionally found that mercury, zinc and copper are the substances contributing the most to the toxic impacts on human health and freshwater ecosystems resulting from manure application to land. While countries such as China, India, Russia, Brazil and the United States of America contributed to half the heavy metal releases from manure application worldwide, the impact intensity per area of agricultural land was observed to be highest for island countries, the European Union and South-East Asia because of higher per-area applications of manure. These findings demonstrate the need to perform country-specific impact assessment to support policy-making regulating the concentrations of toxic substances such as heavy metals in utilised manure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global urbanisation will put considerable stress on both water and energy resources. While there is much research at the national and regional levels on the energy implications of water supply (the urban water-energy ‘nexus’), there is relatively little at the city scale. This literature is further diminished when attempting to account for the climate impact of urban water systems. A study of the urban water-energy-climate nexus is presented for México City. It is shown that 50% of México City water comes from a local aquifer with a further 30% deriving from energy-intensive surface sources which are pumped over considerable topography. The water supply system consumes 90% of the water system energy demand, and is responsible for the majority (90%) of the CO 2 e emissions. In the wastewater sector, 80–90% is discharged with no or little treatment, with correspondingly low energy demand. The small fraction that is treated accounts for the majority of energy use in the wastewater sector. This study shows the uncertainty in energy demand and CO 2 e emissions when reliant on secondary data which considerably over/under-estimate energy use compared with primary data. This has implications when assessing energy and carbon budgets. Three water savings options are assessed for their impact on energy and CO 2 e emissions reductions. Considerable reductions in water supply volumes and concomitant energy consumption and CO 2 e emissions are possible. However the extent of implementation, and the effectiveness of any implemented solutions depend on financing, institutional backing and public support. An additional measure to reduce the climate impact is to switch from traditional to renewable fuels. This work adds city-level quantification of the urban water-energy-climate nexus, allowing policy makers to discern which water-system elements are responsible for the greatest energy use and climate impact, and are better equipped to make targeted operational decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Huai River and Qingling Mountain divide (H-Q) divide China into north and south with respect to public policies for building construction and operation practises. China's building energy efficiency standard mandates that air exchange rates be 0.5 h − 1 north of the H-Q divide and 1 h − 1 south of the divide. China's heating policy allows space heating systems only north of the H-Q divide. Consequently, indoor temperature and humidity differ considerably between north and south. A theoretical model using indoor temperature, humidity, and air change rate was developed to predict indoor formaldehyde concentrations. Data for 39 cities were obtained from 42 studies. There was good agreement between the literature and modelling in a theoretical reference room. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.EPA) model was applied to estimate cancer risk from formaldehyde exposure indoors. The median indoor formaldehyde concentration for renovation ever from 2002 to 2015 in Chinese cities was 125 μg/m 3 , which is higher than the WHO threshold, 100 μg/m 3 . The median indoor formaldehyde concentrations in the north were higher than in the south (0.5 times higher for dwellings renovated within the past year and 0.2 times higher for renovation ever), driven by the much higher northern winter concentrations (40–1320%). The U.S.EPA model predicts that the lifetime formaldehyde related cancer risk for people living north of the H-Q divide is 1.2 times greater than for people living south. This can be partly explained by greater indoor exposure to formaldehyde for Chinese living north of the H-Q divide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mountain lakes are particularly sensitive to global change as their oligotrophic conditions may be rapidly altered after reaching an ecological threshold, due to increasing human impact and climate change. Sanabria Lake, the largest mountain lake in the Iberian Peninsula and with a recent history of increased human impact in its watershed, provides an opportunity to investigate recent trends in an oligotrophic, hydrologically-open mountain lake, and their relationship with climate, hydrological variability and human pressure. We conducted the first systematic and detailed survey of stable isotope compositions of Sanabria Lake and Tera River together with limnological analyses during 2009–2011. δ 18 O lakewater and δD lakewater seasonal fluctuations are strongly linked to river discharges, and follow the monthly mean isotopic composition of precipitation, which is controlled by NAO dynamics. δ 13 C POM and δ 13 C DIC revealed higher contribution of allochthonous organic matter in winter and spring due to higher river inflow and lower primary productivity. Increased phytoplankton biomass in late summer correlated significantly with higher pH and Chl- a , and higher nutrient input and lower river inflow. However, the small δ 13 C POM seasonal amplitude underlines the stability of the oligotrophic conditions and the isotopic variation in POM and DIC reflect small seasonal fluctuations mostly as a consequence of strong throughflow. The stability of hydrology and productivity patterns is consistent with Holocene and last millennium reconstructions of past limnological changes in Sanabria Lake. The results of this study indicate that trophic state in this hydrologically-open mountain lake is strongly controlled by climate variability, but recent changes in human-land uses have increased sediment delivery and nutrients supply to the lake and have to be considered for management policies. Monitoring surveys including isotope techniques provide snapshots of modern isotope variability, and serve as a benchmark for assessing the environmental impacts of future developments and long-term climate changes in mountain lakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transport sector is one of the main sources of greenhouse gases, adding in Spain near a quarter of the total national emissions, the majority in road transport. Therefore, road contribution to climate change should be mitigated to achieve the proposed goals in the fight against climate change. Policies and strategies suggest several preventive mitigation options, but have paid little attention to compensatory mitigation. We have conducted a theoretical case study in a Spanish province, Segovia, estimating the carbon dioxide emissions in the road network between 2015 and 2050, and analysing different compensation possibilities through conservation agriculture, agroforestry, afforestation and hedgerow plantation. We have calculated carbon sequestration in the reference period and costs per tonne for each option, estimating the budget range of offsetting road carbon emission, and funding possibilities, especially through fuel taxes. The paper demonstrates that offsetting carbon emissions produced by roads in this area is technically possible and highly desirable, unifying carbon sequestration, biodiversity improvement and rural development. The main challenge is funding, which depends largely on the political will and the awareness of the citizens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil is important as a critical component for the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. The largest part of the terrestrial biodiversity relies, directly or indirectly, on soil. Furthermore, soil itself is habitat to a great diversity of organisms. The suitability of soil to host such a diversity is strongly related to its physico-chemical features and environmental properties. However, due to the complexity of both soil and biodiversity, it is difficult to identify a clear and unambiguous relationship between environmental parameters and soil biota. Nevertheless, the increasing diffusion of a more integrated view of ecosystems, and in particular the development of the concept of ecosystem services, highlights the need for a better comprehension of the role played by soils in offering these services, including the habitat provision. An assessment of the capability of soils to host biodiversity would contribute to evaluate the quality of soils in order to help policy makers with the development of appropriate and sustainable management actions. However, so far, the heterogeneity of soils has been a barrier to the production of a large-scale framework that directly links soil features to organisms living within it. The current knowledge on the effects of soil physico-chemical properties on biota and the available data at continental scale open the way towards such an evaluation. In this study, the soil habitat potential for biodiversity was assessed and mapped for the first time throughout Europe by combining several soil features (pH, soil texture and soil organic matter) with environmental parameters (potential evapotranspiration, average temperature, soil biomass productivity and land use type). Considering the increasingly recognized importance of soils and their biodiversity in providing ecosystem services, the proposed approach appears to be a promising tool that may contribute to open a forum on the need to include soils in future environmental policy making decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we reflect on the implications for science, policy and practice of the recently introduced concept of Nature-Based Solutions (NBS), with a focus on the European context. First, we analyse NBS in relation to similar concepts, and reflect on its relationship to sustainability as an overarching framework. From this, we derive a set of questions to be addressed and propose a general framework for how these might be addressed in NBS projects by funders, researchers, policy-makers and practitioners. We conclude that: (1) NBS need to be developed and discussed in relation to existing concepts to clarify their added value; (2) When considering and implementing NBS, the ‘relabelling’ of related concepts and the misuse of the concept have to be prevented in order to avoid misunderstanding, duplication and unintended consequences; (3) NBS as currently framed by the European Commission provides an opportunity for: a) transdisciplinary research into the design and implementation of solutions based on nature; and b) overcoming a bias towards development alternatives with narrow perspectives that focus on short-term economic gains and effectiveness; (4) The strength of the NBS concept is its integrative, systemic approach which prevents it from becoming just another “green communication tool” that provides justification for a classical model of natural resource exploitation and management measures. To realise their full potential, NBS must be developed by including the experience of all relevant stakeholders such that ‘solutions’ contribute to achieving all dimensions of sustainability. As NBS are developed, we must also moderate the expectations placed on them since the precedent provided by other initiatives whose aim was to manage nature sustainably demonstrates that we should not expect NBS to be cheap and easy, at least not in the short-term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change research and action counteracting it affect everyone and would involve cross-societal transformations reshaping the anthroposphere in its entirety. Scrutinizing climate-related science and policies, we recognize attempts to steer the evolution of climate according to expected (or modelled) futures. Such attempts would turn the anthroposphere into a large “anticipatory system”, in which human society seeks to anticipate and, possibly, to govern climate dynamics. The chief aim of this discussion paper is to open a critical debate on the climate change paradigm (CCP) drawing on a strategic and systemic framework grounded in the concept of anticipatory system sensu Rosen (1991). The proposed scheme is ambitiously intended to turn an intricate issue into a complex but structured problem that is to say, to make such complexity clear and manageable. This framework emerges from concepts borrowed from different scientific fields (including future studies and system dynamics) and its background lies in a simple quantitative literature overview, relying upon a broad level of analysis. The proposed framework will assist researchers and policy makers in thinking of CCP in terms of an anticipatory system, and in disentangling its interrelated (and sometimes intricate) aspects. In point of fact, several strategic questions related to CCP were not subjected to an adequate transdisciplinary discussion: what are the interplays between physical processes and social-political interventions, who is the observer (what he/she is looking for), and which paradigm is being used (or who defines the desirable future). The proposed scheme allows to structure such various topics in an arrangement which is easier to communicate, highlighting the linkages in between, and making them intelligible and open to verification and discussion. Furthermore, ideally developments will help scientists and policy makers address the strategic gaps between the evidence-based climatological assessments and the plurality of possible answers as applied to the geopolitical contingencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Department of Energy's Clean Cities program was created in 1993 to reduce petroleum usage in the transportation sector. The program promotes alternative fuels such as biofuels and fuel-saving strategies such as idle reduction and fleet management through coalitions of local government, non-profit, and private actors. Few studies have evaluated the impact of the program because of its complexity that include interrelated strategies of grants, education and training and diversity of participants. This paper uses a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) approach to evaluate the effectiveness of the program between 1990 and 2010. We quantify the effectiveness of the Clean Cities program by focusing on performance measures such as air quality, number of alternative fueling stations, private vehicle occupancy and transit ridership. We find that counties that participate in the program perform better on all these measures compared to counties that did not participate. Compared to the control group, counties in the Clean Cities program experienced a reduction in days with bad air quality (3.7%), a decrease in automobile commuters (2.9%), an overall increase in transit commuters (2.1%) and had greater numbers of new alternative fueling stations (12.9). The results suggest that the program is a qualified success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Ogoniland region of the Niger Delta contains a vast number of sites contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons that originated from Nigeria's active oil sector. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) reported on this widespread contamination in 2011, however, wide-scale action to clean-up these sites has yet to be initiated. A challenge for decision makers responsible for the clean-up of these sites has been the prioritisation of sites to enable appropriate allocation of scarce resources. In this study, a risk-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework was used to prioritise high-risk sites contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons in the Ogoniland region of Nigeria. The prioritisation method used a set of risk-based attributes that took into account chemical and ecological impacts, as well as socio-economic impacts, providing a holistic assessment of the risk. Data for the analysis was taken from the UNEP Environmental Assessment of Ogoniland, where over 110 communities were assessed for oil-contamination. Results from our prioritisation show that the highest-ranking sites were not necessarily the sites with the highest observed level of hydrocarbon contamination. This differentiation was due to our use of proximity as a surrogate measure for likelihood of exposure. Composite measures of risk provide a more robust assessment, and can enrich discussions about risk management and the allocation of resources for the clean-up of affected sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The restoration of degraded vegetation can effectively improve ecosystem services, increase human well-being, and promote regional sustainable development. Understanding the changing trends in ecosystem services and their drivers is an important step in informing decision makers for the development of reasonable landscape management measures. From 2001 to 2014, we analyzed the changing trends in five critical ecosystem services in the Xilingol Grassland, which is typical of grasslands in North China, including net primary productivity (NPP), soil conservation (SC), soil loss due to wind (SL), water yield (WY) and water retention (WR). Additionally, we quantified how climatic factors and landscape patterns affect the five ecosystem services on both annual and seasonal time scales. Overall, the results indicated that vegetation restoration can effectively improve the five grassland ecosystem services, and precipitation (PPT) is the most critical climatic factor. The impact of changes in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was most readily detectable on the annual time scale, whereas the impact of changes in landscape pattern was most readily detectable on the seasonal time scale. A win-win situation in terms of grassland ecosystem services (e.g., vegetation productivity, SC, WR and reduced SL) can be achieved by increasing grassland aggregation, partitioning the largest grasslands, dividing larger areas of farmland into smaller patches, and increasing the area of appropriate forest stands. Our work may aid policymakers in developing regional landscape management schemes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid industrialization in China has brought forward serious and harmful atmospheric pollution. In this study, spatial econometric analysis was used to analyze the spatial change and the driving forces behind the industrial sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) discharge in China from 2001 to 2014. The study found that the amount of industrial SO 2 discharge (ISOD) increased first and then decreased during this period. ISOD intensity witnessed a fluctuating drop. There were large differences among intercity ISOD amount and intensity, which had various spatial patterns. Global Moran's I of ISOD amount and intensity had a tendency to increase on the whole, showed positive spatial autocorrelation, and revealed a more and more remarkable clustered spatial pattern. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis found that the spatial patterns of ISOD amount and intensity changed considerably over space and time. The spatial patterns of ISOD were significantly influenced by the regional differences in land use and environmental policy. The study also found that the driving forces of ISOD in China changed significantly from 2001 to 2014. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When designing and implementing agri-environmental policies to reduce nutrient loss, action programmes may falsely address areas where the nutrient issue from agricultural activity is not currently important and is not likely to become so in the future (a false positive), or may fail to address areas where the agricultural nutrient issue is currently important or may likely become so in the future (a false negative). Based on a case study of the Louros watershed in Greece, this work identifies database and modelling sources of false positives and negatives and proposes a decision making process aimed at minimizing the possibility of committing such errors. The baseline is well simulated and shows that the Louro's watershed falls behind a Good Environmental Status, at least marginally. Simulated mitigation measures show that the river's status can be upgraded to “Good”, at least as concerns nitrates and ammonium. Simulated climate change does not seem to exert an important positive or negative effect. Land use changes forecasting considerably less cultivated area have a significant effect on Total Phosphorous but not on nitrates or ammonium concentrations. The non-linearity between nutrient disposition (inputs) and nutrient concentration in downstream water bodies (output) and the many factors that affect the nutrient disposition-transportation-concentration chain, highlights the importance of simulating the effects of mitigation actions and of future climate and land use changes before adopting and establishing agri-environmental measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contemporary approaches to environmental research are calling for a type of scientific inquiry that is able to bring together the natural and social sciences. This with the aim to advance our understanding of environmental issues and produce synthetic and actionable knowledge meant to address these. Yet, interdisciplinarity research of this type is a demanding and challenging pursuit; many have shown that in certain thematic areas and geographic regions practice falls behind discourse. We bring together ideas about interdisciplinary research collaborations (after Patricia L. Rosenfield) and interdisciplinary epistemic synthesis (after Julie T. Klein) that are used to analyse a sample of research projects funded (from 2006 to 2013) by the Slovene Research Agency. We triangulated interview data (with principal investigators) with document analysis and integrated these with other secondary data. Our results suggest for the sample of environmental projects to be interdisciplinary in a narrow sense, this prevalently within natural and life sciences with little input from the humanities and social sciences. Also, the results obtained suggest that environmental research with unambiguous problem solving objectives is preferred over research with a high degree of abstraction, as involved in theoretical and conceptual work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]