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Identifying and evaluating the factors that might impact on the long-term integrity of a deep Geological Disposal Facility (GDF) and its surrounding geological and surface environment is central to developing a safety case for underground disposal of radioactive waste. The geological environment should be relatively stable and its behaviour adequately predictable so that scientifically sound evaluations of the long-term radiological safety of a GDF can be made. In considering this, it is necessary to take into account natural processes that could affect a GDF or modify its geological environment up to 1 million years into the future. Key processes considered in this paper include those which result from plate tectonics, such as seismicity and volcanism, as well as climate-related processes, such as erosion, uplift and the effects of glaciation. Understanding the inherent variability of process rates, critical thresholds and likely potential influence of unpredictable perturbations represent significant challenges to predicting the natural environment. From a plate-tectonic perspective, a one million year time frame represents a very short segment of geological time and is largely below the current resolution of observation of past processes. Similarly, predicting climate system evolution on such time-scales, particularly beyond 200 ka AP is highly uncertain, relying on estimating the extremes within which climate and related processes may vary with reasonable confidence. The paper highlights some of the challenges facing a deep geological disposal program in the UK to review understanding of the natural changes that may affect siting and design of a GDF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind-driven rain (WDR) is rain given a horizontal velocity component by wind and falling obliquely. It is a prominent environmental risk to built heritage, as it contributes to the damage of porous building materials and building element failure. While predicted climate trends are well-established, how they will specifically manifest in future WDR is uncertain. This paper combines UKCP09 Weather Generator predictions with a probabilistic process to create hourly time series of climate parameters under a high-emissions scenario for 2070–2099 at eight UK sites. Exposure to WDR at these sites for baseline and future periods is calculated from semi-empirical models based on long-term hourly meteorological data using ISO 15927-3:2009. Towards the end of the twenty-first century, it is predicted that rain spells will have higher volumes, i.e. a higher quantity of water will impact façades, across all 8 sites. Although the average number of spells is predicted to remain constant, they will be shorter with longer of periods of time between them and more intense with wind-driven rain occurring for a greater proportion of hours within them. It is likely that in this scenario building element failure – such as moisture ingress through cracks and gutter over-spill – will occur more frequently. There will be higher rates of moisture cycling and enhanced deep-seated wetting. These predicted changes require new metrics for wind-driven rain to be developed, so that future impacts can be managed effectively and efficiently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multisectoral partnerships are increasingly cited as a mechanism to deliver and improve disaster risk management. Yet, partnerships are not a panacea and more research is required to understand the role that they can play in disaster risk management and particularly disaster risk reduction. This paper investigates how partnerships can incentivise flood risk reduction by focusing on the UK public-private partnership on flood insurance. Developing the right flood insurance arrangements to incentivise flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change is a key challenge. In the face of rising flood risks due to climate change and socio-economic development insurance partnerships can no longer afford to focus only on the risk transfer function. However, while expectations of the insurance industry have traditionally been high when it comes to flood risk management, the insurance industry alone will not provide the solution to the challenge of rising risks. The case of flood insurance in the UK illustrates this: even national government and industry together cannot fully address these risks and other actors need to be involved to create strong incentives for risk reduction. Using an agent-based model focused on surface water flood risk in London we analyse how other partners could strengthen the insurance partnership by reducing flood risk and thus helping to maintain affordable insurance premiums. Our findings are relevant for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes to incentivise flood risk management and climate adaptation in the UK and also internationally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the temporal variation of a broad suite of micro organic (MO) compounds within hydrologically linked compartments of a lowland Chalk catchment, the most important drinking water aquifer in the UK. It presents an assessment of results from relatively high frequency monitoring at a well-characterised site, including the type and concentrations of compounds detected and how they change under different hydrological conditions including exceptionally high groundwater levels and river flow conditions during 2014 and subsequent recovery. This study shows for the first time that within the Chalk groundwater there can be a greater diversity of the MOs compared to surface waters. Within the Chalk 26 different compounds were detected over the duration of the study compared to 17 in the surface water. Plasticisers (0.06–39 μg/L) were found to dominate in the Chalk groundwater on 5 visits (38.4%) accounting for 14.5% of detections but contributing highest concentrations whilst other compounds dominated in the surface water. Trichloroethene and atrazine were among the most frequently detected compounds. The limit for the total pesticide concentration detected did not exceed EU/UK prescribed concentration values for drinking water. Emerging organic compounds such as caffeine, which currently do not have water quality limits, were also detected. The low numbers of compounds found within the hyporheic zone highlight the role of this transient interface in the attenuation and breakdown of the MOs, and provision of an important ecosystem service. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Over 80% of UK peatlands are degraded to some extent and their widespread restoration could contribute to meeting various climate change, water quality and biodiversity policy challenges. Economic analysis of costs and benefits is, however, hampered by scientific uncertainty and a lack of data on biophysical conditions as well as the impacts and costs of restoration. This paper presents a simple ‘ready-reckoner’ of possible net economic benefits under different combinations of simplifying ‘what if?’ assumptions for key restoration parameters. The results strongly suggest that even a narrow focus on carbon benefits alone is sufficient to justify restoration in many cases, and the inclusion of possible additional non-carbon benefits reinforces this. However, results are sensitive to assumptions and better data for, in particular, restoration costs associated with modest emission savings from lightly degraded sites would be helpful. Some other areas for further research are also identified. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]