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Land use and land cover patterns in mainland China have substantially changed in the recent decades under the economic reform policies of the government. The terrestrial carbon cycle, particularly the net primary productivity (NPP), has been substantially changed on both local and national scales. With the growing concern over the effects of the terrestrial carbon cycle on global climate changes, the impacts of land use and cover change (LUCC) on NPP need to be understood. In this study, variations in NPP caused by LUCC (e.g., urbanization and conversion of other land use to forest and grassland) in mainland China from the late 1980s to 2015 were evaluated based on land cover datasets and NPPs simulated from the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach model. The results indicate that the national total losses in NPP attributed to urbanization reached 1.695 TgC between the late 1980s and 2015. A large proportion (63.02%) of the total losses was due to the transformation from cropland to urban land. Urban expansion decreased the monthly and total NPPs over southern China, which includes the South China Region, Southwest China Region, and the middle and lower regions of the Yangtze River. However, the total NPP increased in the majority of urbanized areas in Northern China, including the Huang–Huai–Hai Region, Inner Mongolia Region (MGR), Gan-Xin Region (GXR), and Northeast China Region; monthly NPP in GXR and MGR increased throughout the year. By contrast, the conversion to grassland or forestland increased the monthly and total NPPs of Northern China, suggesting that returning to forestland and grassland could increase the carbon sequestration capacity of terrestrial ecosystems in mainland China. Among the sub-regions, the Loess Plateau Region contributed the largest increase in NPP, which was prompted by the conversion to grassland and forestland.

In recent decades, the occurrence and severity of drought in China has had devastating impact on social and economic development. The increase in drought has been attributed to global warming. We used the high-accuracy self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) to investigate the variation in drought in China between 1961 and 2009 using the Mann-Kendall (MK), continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and the rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) methods. We also analyzed the relationship between the rotated principal component time series (RPCs) and 74 circulation indices. The results revealed that: 1) all of China experienced a significant wet trend at annual and seasonal scale; an abrupt change in the drought pattern occurred around 1970 with a 2-8-year significant period; 2) eight major sub-climate regions were identified: Northwest China, Northeast-Inner Mongolia Plateau, Greater Khingan Range area, Northern Tibetan Plateau, Southern Tibetan Plateau, Central China, Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and Southeast China. Of these regions, the Southern Tibetan Plateau experienced a significant wet trend, but the Northeast-Inner Mongolia Plateau and Northern Tibetan Plateau became significantly drier. Using either annual or seasonal scales, Northwest China became significantly wetter and Central China became more arid. In addition, the period of each sub-climate region shared a significant 2-8-year band; 3) the polar vortex exhibited dominant patterns that affected most areas of China. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation had a significant influence on drought evolution, especially for Northwest China and the Huang-Huai-Hai plain. Additionally, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation also affected drought evolution, and the Central China was impacted by the Indian Ocean Dipole.

Heat wave flash drought or precipitation deficit flash drought has devastating impacts on society and the environment. This study explored the historical changes (1960–2015) of the two categories of flash drought over the Pearl River Basin (PRB) in China, and revealed how they would change in the future (2016–2100), by coupling the variable infiltration capacity mode with the global climate model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios. Our results indicate that during 1960–2015, the mid-northern PRB has experienced heat wave flash drought frequently while the western PRB suffered from precipitation deficit flash drought. In future, heat wave flash drought under RCP2.6 and 4.5 would occur mostly in the western and eastern PRB. Specifically, heat wave flash drought would become severe under RCP8.5, especially for the eastern PRB. However, precipitation deficit flash drought would be concentrated in the western PRB. Except for the central regions, PRB generally exhibits a significant upward trend in heat wave flash drought under RCP4.5. Under RCP8.5, distinct increases in both categories of flash drought across almost the whole PRB are expected. For precipitation deficit flash drought, only a few regions show significant upward trends under RCP2.6 and 4.5.