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Infectious diseases are among the leading causes of mortality worldwide. A new coronavirus named severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was identified in Wuhan, China in 2019, and the World Health Organization (WHO) declared its outbreak, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), as a global pandemic in 2020. COVID-19 can spread quickly from person to person. One of the most challenging issues is to identify the infected individuals and prevent potential spread of SARS-CoV-2. Recently, anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin M (IgM) and immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody tests using immunochromatographic methods have been used as a complement to current detection methods and have provided information of the approximate course of COVID-19 infection. However, blood sampling causes pain and poses risks of infection at the needle puncture site. In this study, a novel patch sensor integrating porous microneedles and an immunochromatographic assay (PMNIA) was developed for the rapid detection of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM/IgG in dermal interstitial fluid (ISF), which is a rich source of protein biomarkers, such as antibodies. Biodegradable porous microneedles (MNs) made of polylactic acid were fabricated to extract ISF from human skin by capillary effect. The extracted ISF was vertically transported and flowed into the affixed immunoassay biosensor, where specific antibodies could be detected colorimetrically on-site. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM/IgG antibodies were simultaneously detected within 3 min in vitro. Moreover, the limit of detection of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM and IgG concentrations was as low as 3 and 7 ng/mL, respectively. The developed device integrating porous MNs and immunochromatographic biosensors is expected to enable minimally invasive, simple, and rapid anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM/IgG antibody testing. Furthermore, the compact size of the MN and biosensor-integrated device is advantageous for its widespread use. The proposed device has great potential for rapid screening of various infectious diseases in addition to COVID-19 as an effective complementary method with other diagnostic tests., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

The pandemic reminded us that the pathogen evolution still has a serious effect on human societies. States, however, can prepare themselves for the emergence of a novel pathogen with unknown characteristics by analysing potential scenarios. Game theory offers such an appropriate tool. In our game-theoretical framework, the state is playing against a pathogen by introducing non-pharmaceutical interventions to fulfil its socio-political goals, such as guaranteeing hospital care to all needed patients, keeping the country functioning, while the applied social restrictions should be as soft as possible. With the inclusion of activity and economic sector dependent transmission rate, optimal control of lockdowns and health care capacity management is calculated. We identify the presence and length of a pre-symptomatic infectious stage of the disease to have the greatest effect on the probability to cause a pandemic. Here we show that contrary to intuition, the state should not strive for the great expansion of its health care capacities even if its goal is to provide care for all requiring it and minimize the cost of lockdowns., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

This paper presents a novel approach to analyzing the dynamics of COVID-19 using nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) schemes. Our model incorporates both asymptomatic and symptomatic infected individuals, allowing for a more comprehensive understanding of the epidemic's spread. We introduce an unconditionally stable NSFD system that eliminates the need for traditional Runge–Kutta methods, ensuring dynamical consistency and numerical accuracy. Through rigorous numerical analysis, we evaluate the performance of different NSFD strategies and validate our analytical findings. Our work demonstrates the benefits of using NSFD schemes for modeling infectious diseases, offering advantages in terms of stability and efficiency. We further illustrate the dynamic behavior of COVID-19 under various conditions using numerical simulations. The results from these simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in capturing the epidemic's complex dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pandemic of Gompertz virus disease remains a pressing issue in agricultural production. Moreover, the dynamics of various infectious diseases is usually investigated by the method of mathematical modelling. A new mathematical model for dynamics on Gompertz virus disease impulsive system is proposed and analyzed in this paper. We prove the dynamic characteristics about the permanence and globally exponential stability of Gompertz virus disease model. Moreover, we also give the sufficient condition that one positive solution which satisfies E (t) ≥ q 2 if R 1 ∗ > 1 exists. Eventually, numerical simulations are utilized to validate the validity of the theoretically analyzed conclusion in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) approach is a classic modeling method that is frequently used to study infectious diseases. However, in the vast majority of such models transitions from one population group to another are described using the mass-action law. That causes inability to reproduce observable dynamics of an infection such as the incubation period or progression of the disease's symptoms. In this paper, we propose a new approach to simulate the epidemic dynamics based on a system of differential equations with time delays and instant transitions to approximate durations of transition processes more correctly and make model parameters more clear. The suggested approach can be applied not only to Covid-19 but also to the study of other infectious diseases. We utilized it in the development of the delay-based model of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany and France. The model takes into account testing of different population groups, symptoms progression from mild to critical, vaccination, duration of protective immunity and new virus strains. The stringency index was used as a generalized characteristic of the non-pharmaceutical government interventions in corresponding countries to contain the virus spread. The parameter identifiability analysis demonstrated that the presented modeling approach enables to significantly reduce the number of parameters and make them more identifiable. Both models are publicly available., (© 2023. Springer Nature Limited.)

There are numerous contagious diseases caused by pathogenic microorganisms, including bacteria, viruses, fungi, and parasites, that have the propensity to culminate in fatal consequences. A communicable disease is an illness caused by a contagion agent or its toxins and spread directly or indirectly to a susceptible animal or human host by an infected person, animal, vector, or immaterial environment. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, hepatitis A, B, and C, and measles are all examples of communicable diseases. Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is a communicable disease caused by HIV infection that has become the most severe issue facing humanity. The research work in this paper is to numerically explore a mathematical model and demonstrate the dynamics of HIV/AIDS disease transmission using a continuous Galerkin-Petrov time discretization of a higher-order scheme, specifically the cGP(2)-scheme. Depict a graphical and tabular comparison between the outcomes of the mentioned scheme and those obtained through other classical schemes that exist in the literature. Further, a comparison is performed relative to the well-known fourth-order Ruge-Kutta (RK4) method with different step sizes. By contrast, the suggested approach provided more accurate results with a larger step size than RK4 with a smaller step size. After validation and confirmation of the suggested scheme and code, we implement the method to the extended model by introducing a treatment rate and show the impact of various non-linear source terms for the generation of new cells. We also determined the basic reproduction number and use the Routh-Hurwitz criterion to assess the stability of disease-free and unique endemic equilibrium states of the HIV model., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Vaccines have revolutionized modern medicine by preventing infectious diseases and safeguarding public health. This Collection showcases cutting-edge research on advancements in vaccine development and their impact on disease prevention. The papers presented here report various facets of vaccine efficacy, immunological responses, and design, providing insight into future immunization strategies. I believe this Collection will serve as a catalyst for further advancements in the field of vaccine research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human mobility is a key driver of infectious disease spread. Recent literature has uncovered a clear pattern underlying the complexity of human mobility in cities: r · f , the product of distance traveled r and frequency of return f per user to a given location, is invariant across space. This paper asks whether the invariant r · f also serves as a driver for epidemic spread, so that the risk associated with human movement can be modeled by a unifying variable r · f . We use two large-scale datasets of individual human mobility to show that there is in fact a simple relation between r and f and both speed and spatial dispersion of disease spread. This discovery could assist in modeling spread of disease and inform travel policies in future epidemics—based not only on travel distance r but also on frequency of return f. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tuberculosis, an airborne disease, is the deadliest human infectious disease caused by one single agent. The African region is among the most affected and most burdensome area in terms of tuberculosis cases. In this paper, we modeled the number of new cases of tuberculosis for 2000–2021 by integer time series. For each African country, we fitted twenty different models and selected the model that best fitted the data. The twenty models were mostly based on the number of new cases following either the Poisson or negative binomial distribution with the rate parameter allowed to vary linearly or quadratically with respect to year. The best fitted models were used to give predictions for 2022–2031. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global COVID-19 pandemic brought considerable public and policy attention to the field of infectious disease modelling. A major hurdle that modellers must overcome, particularly when models are used to develop policy, is quantifying the uncertainty in a model's predictions. By including the most recent available data in a model, the quality of its predictions can be improved and uncertainties reduced. This paper adapts an existing, large-scale, individual-based COVID-19 model to explore the benefits of updating the model in pseudo-real time. We use Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to dynamically recalibrate the model's parameter values as new data emerge. ABC offers advantages over alternative calibration methods by providing information about the uncertainty associated with particular parameter values and the resulting COVID-19 predictions through posterior distributions. Analysing such distributions is crucial in fully understanding a model and its outputs. We find that forecasts of future disease infection rates are improved substantially by incorporating up-to-date observations and that the uncertainty in forecasts drops considerably in later simulation windows (as the model is provided with additional data). This is an important outcome because the uncertainty in model predictions is often overlooked when models are used in policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early detection of the emergence of a new variant of concern (VoC) is essential to develop strategies that contain epidemic outbreaks. For example, knowing in which region a VoC starts spreading enables prompt actions to circumscribe the geographical area where the new variant can spread, by containing it locally. This paper presents 'funnel plots' as a statistical process control method that, unlike tools whose purpose is to identify rises of the reproduction number ([Formula: see text]), detects when a regional [Formula: see text] departs from the national average and thus represents an anomaly. The name of the method refers to the funnel-like shape of the scatter plot that the data take on. Control limits with prescribed false alarm rate are derived from the observation that regional [Formula: see text]'s are normally distributed with variance inversely proportional to the number of infectious cases. The method is validated on public COVID-19 data demonstrating its efficacy in the early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants in India, South Africa, England, and Italy, as well as of a malfunctioning episode of the diagnostic infrastructure in England, during which the Immensa lab in Wolverhampton gave 43,000 incorrect negative tests relative to South West and West Midlands territories., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Many common pathogens are difficult or impossible to detect using conventional microbiological tests. However, the rapid and untargeted nature of metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) appears to be a promising alternative. To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence regarding the diagnostic accuracy of mNGS in patients with infectious diseases. An electronic literature search of Embase, PubMed and Scopus databases was performed. Quality was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 tool. Summary receiver operating characteristics (sROC) and the area under the curve (AUC) were calculated; A random-effects model was used in cases of heterogeneity. A total of 20 papers were eligible for inclusion and synthesis. The sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic mNGS were 75% and 68%, respectively. The AUC from the SROC was 85%, corresponding to excellent performance. mNGS demonstrated satisfactory diagnostic performance for infections and yielded an overall detection rate superior to conventional methods., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

The dynamics of human mobility have been known to play a critical role in the spread of infectious diseases like COVID-19. In this paper, we present a simple compact way to model the transmission of infectious disease through transportation networks using widely available aggregate mobility data in the form of a zone-level origin-destination (OD) travel flow matrix. A key feature of our model is that it not only captures the propagation of infection via direct connections between zones (first-order effects) as in most existing studies but also transmission effects that are due to subsequent interactions in the remainder of the system (higher-order effects). We demonstrate the importance of capturing higher-order effects in a simulation study. We then apply our model to study the first wave of COVID-19 infections in (i) Italy, and, (ii) the New York Tri-State area. We use daily data on mobility between Italian provinces (province-level OD data) and between Tri-State Area counties (county-level OD data), and daily reported caseloads at the same geographical levels. Our empirical results indicate substantial predictive power, particularly during the early stages of the outbreak. Our model forecasts at least 85% of the spatial variation in observed weekly COVID-19 cases. Most importantly, our model delivers crucial metrics to identify target areas for intervention., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

How do we best constrain social interactions to decrease transmission of communicable diseases? Indiscriminate suppression is unsustainable long term and presupposes that all interactions carry equal importance. Instead, transmission within a social network has been shown to be determined by its topology. In this paper, we deploy simulations to understand and quantify the impact on disease transmission of a set of topological network features, building a dataset of 9000 interaction graphs using generators of different types of synthetic social networks. Independently of the topology of the network, we maintain constant the total volume of social interactions in our simulations, to show how even with the same social contact some network structures are more or less resilient to the spread. We find a suitable intervention to be specific suppression of unfamiliar and casual interactions that contribute to the network's global efficiency. This is, pathogen spread is significantly reduced by limiting specific kinds of contact rather than their global number. Our numerical studies might inspire further investigation in connection to public health, as an integrative framework to craft and evaluate social interventions in communicable diseases with different social graphs or as a highlight of network metrics that should be captured in social studies., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Controlling the spreading of infectious diseases has been shown crucial in the COVID-19 pandemic. Traditional contact tracing is used to detect newly infected individuals by tracing their previous contacts, and by selectively checking and isolating any individuals likely to have been infected. Digital contact tracing with the utilisation of smartphones was contrived as a technological aid to improve this manual, slow and tedious process. Nevertheless, despite the high hopes raised when smartphone-based contact tracing apps were introduced as a measure to reduce the spread of the COVID-19, their efficiency has been moderately low. In this paper, we propose a methodology for evaluating digital contact tracing apps, based on an epidemic model, which will be used not only to evaluate the deployed Apps against the COVID-19 but also to determine how they can be improved for future pandemics. Firstly, the model confirms the moderate effectiveness of the deployed digital contact tracing, confirming the fact that it could not be used as the unique measure to fight against the COVID-19, and had to be combined with additional measures. Secondly, several improvements are proposed (and evaluated) to increase the efficiency of digital control tracing to become a more useful tool in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multimorbidity (MM) prevalence among older adults is increasing worldwide. Variations regarding the socioeconomic characteristics of the individuals and their context have been described, mostly in high-income settings. However, further research is needed to understand the effect of the coexistence of infectious diseases along with socioeconomic factors regarding MM. This study aims to examine the variation of MM regarding infectious diseases mortality after adjusting for socioeconomic factors. A cross-sectional multilevel study with a nationally representative sample of 17,571 Colombian adults of 60 years of age or older was conducted. Individual socioeconomic, demographic, childhood and health related characteristics, as well as group level variables (multidimensional poverty index and infectious diseases mortality rate) were analyzed. A two-level stepwise structural equation model was used to simultaneously adjust for the individual and contextual effects. Multimorbidity prevalence was 62.3% (95% CI 61.7-62.9). In the multilevel adjusted models, age, female sex, having functional limitations, non-white ethnicity, high body mass index, higher income, physical inactivity and living in urban areas were associated with multimorbidity among the sample for this study. The median odds ratio for multidimensional poverty was 1.18 (1.16-1.19; p = 0.008) and for infectious diseases was 1.25 (1.22-1.28; p = 0.014). This paper demonstrates that MM varies regarding the mortality of infectious diseases and shows a strong association between MM and poverty in a low-middle income country. Differences in the factors involved in the etiology of multimorbidity are expected among wealthy and poor countries regarding availability and prioritization of health services., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

As the COVID-19 spread over the globe and new variants of COVID-19 keep occurring, reliable real-time forecasts of COVID-19 hospitalizations are critical for public health decisions on medical resources allocations. This paper aims to forecast future 2 weeks national and state-level COVID-19 new hospital admissions in the United States. Our method is inspired by the strong association between public search behavior and hospitalization admissions and is extended from a previously-proposed influenza tracking model, AutoRegression with GOogle search data (ARGO). Our LASSO-penalized linear regression method efficiently combines Google search information and COVID-19 related time series information with dynamic training and rolling window prediction. Compared to other publicly available models collected from COVID-19 forecast hub, our method achieves substantial error reduction in a retrospective out-of-sample evaluation from Jan 4, 2021, to Dec 27, 2021. Overall, we showed that our method is flexible, self-correcting, robust, accurate, and interpretable, making it a potentially powerful tool to assist healthcare officials and decision making for the current and future infectious disease outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The outbreak of COVID-19, since its appearance, has affected about 200 countries and endangered millions of lives. COVID-19 is extremely contagious disease, and it can quickly incapacitate the healthcare systems if infected cases are not handled timely. Several Conventional Neural Networks (CNN) based techniques have been developed to diagnose the COVID-19. These techniques require a large, labelled dataset to train the algorithm fully, but there are not too many labelled datasets. To mitigate this problem and facilitate the diagnosis of COVID-19, we developed a self-attention transformer-based approach having self-attention mechanism using CT slices. The architecture of transformer can exploit the ample unlabelled datasets using pre-training. The paper aims to compare the performances of self-attention transformer-based approach with CNN and Ensemble classifiers for diagnosis of COVID-19 using binary Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and multi-class Hybrid-learning for UnbiaSed predicTion of COVID-19 (HUST-19) CT scan dataset. To perform this comparison, we have tested Deep learning-based classifiers and ensemble classifiers with proposed approach using CT scan images. Proposed approach is more effective in detection of COVID-19 with an accuracy of 99.7% on multi-class HUST-19, whereas 98% on binary class SARS-CoV-2 dataset. Cross corpus evaluation achieves accuracy of 93% by training the model with Hust19 dataset and testing using Brazilian COVID dataset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

European countries struggled to fight against the second and the third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, as the Test-Trace-Isolate (TTI) strategy widely adopted over the summer and early fall 2020 failed to contain the spread of the disease effectively. This paper sheds light on the effectiveness of such a strategy in two European countries (Spain and Italy) by analysing data from June to December 2020, collected via a large-scale online citizen survey with 95,251 and 43,393 answers in Spain and Italy, respectively. Our analysis describes several weaknesses in each of the three pillars of the TTI strategy: Test, Trace, and Isolate. We find that 40% of respondents had to wait more than 48 hours to obtain coronavirus tests results, while literature has shown that a delay of more than one day might make tracing all cases inefficient. We also identify limitations in the manual contact tracing capabilities in both countries, as only 29% of respondents in close contact with a confirmed infected individual reported having been contact traced. Moreover, our analysis shows that more than 45% of respondents report being unable to self-isolate if needed. We also analyse the mitigation strategies deployed to contain the second wave of coronavirus. We find that these interventions were particularly effective in Italy, where close contacts were reduced by more than 20% in the general population. Finally, we analyse the participants' perceptions about the coronavirus risk associated with different daily activities. We observe that they are often gender- and age-dependent, and not aligned with the actual risk identified by the literature. This finding emphasises the importance of deploying public-health communication campaigns to debunk misconceptions about SARS-CoV-2. Overall, our work illustrates the value of online citizen surveys to quickly and efficiently collect large-scale population data to support and evaluate policy decisions to combat the spread of infectious diseases, such as coronavirus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Influenza is an infectious disease with obvious periodic changes over time. It is of great practical significance to explore the non-environment-related factors that cause this regularity for influenza control and individual protection. In this paper, based on the randomness of population number and the heterogeneity of population contact, we have established a stochastic infectious disease model about influenza based on the degree of the network, and obtained the power spectral density function by using the van Kampen expansion method of the master equation. The relevant parameters are obtained by fitting the influenza data of sentinel hospitals. The results of the numerical analysis show that: (1) for the infected, the infection period of patients who go to the sentinel hospitals is particularly different from the others who do not; (2) for all the infected, there is an obvious nonlinear relationship between their infection period and the visiting rate of the influenza sentinel hospitals, the infection rate and the degree. Among them, only the infection period of patients who do not go to the sentinel hospitals decreased monotonously with the infection rate (increased monotonously with the visiting rate), while the rest had a non-monotonic relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trophic coherence, a measure of a graph's hierarchical organisation, has been shown to be linked to a graph's structural and dynamical aspects such as cyclicity, stability and normality. Trophic levels of vertices can reveal their functional properties, partition and rank the vertices accordingly. Trophic levels and hence trophic coherence can only be defined on graphs with basal vertices, i.e. vertices with zero in-degree. Consequently, trophic analysis of graphs had been restricted until now. In this paper we introduce a hierarchical framework which can be defined on any simple graph. Within this general framework, we develop several metrics: hierarchical levels, a generalisation of the notion of trophic levels, influence centrality, a measure of a vertex's ability to influence dynamics, and democracy coefficient, a measure of overall feedback in the system. We discuss how our generalisation relates to previous attempts and what new insights are illuminated on the topological and dynamical aspects of graphs. Finally, we show how the hierarchical structure of a network relates to the incidence rate in a SIS epidemic model and the economic insights we can gain through it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study uses imposed control techniques and vaccination game theory to study disease dynamics with transitory or diminishing immunity. Our model uses the ABC fractional-order derivative mechanism to show the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as personal protection or awareness, quarantine, and isolation to simulate the essential control strategies against an infectious disease spread in an infinite and uniformly distributed population. A comprehensive evolutionary game theory study quantified the significant influence of people's vaccination choices, with government forces participating in vaccination programs to improve obligatory control measures to reduce epidemic spread. This model uses the intervention options described above as a control strategy to reduce disease prevalence in human societies. Again, our simulated results show that a combined control strategy works exquisitely when the disease spreads even faster. A sluggish dissemination rate slows an epidemic outbreak, but modest control techniques can reestablish a disease-free equilibrium. Preventive vaccination regulates the border between the three phases, while personal protection, quarantine, and isolation methods reduce disease transmission in existing places. Thus, successfully combining these three intervention measures reduces epidemic or pandemic size, as represented by line graphs and 3D surface diagrams. For the first time, we use a fractional-order derivate to display the phase-portrayed trajectory graph to show the model's dynamics if immunity wanes at a specific pace, considering various vaccination cost and effectiveness settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crowd flow prediction has been studied for a variety of purposes, ranging from the private sector such as location selection of stores according to the characteristics of commercial districts and customer-tailored marketing to the public sector for social infrastructure design such as transportation networks. Its importance is even greater in light of the spread of contagious diseases such as COVID-19. In many cases, crowd flow can be divided into subgroups by common characteristics such as gender, age, location type, etc. If we use such hierarchical structure of the data effectively, we can improve prediction accuracy of crowd flow for subgroups. But the existing prediction models do not consider such hierarchical structure of the data. In this study, we propose a deep learning model based on global–local structure of the crowd flow data, which utilizes the overall(global) and subdivided by the types of sites(local) crowd flow data simultaneously to predict the crowd flow of each subgroup. The experiment result shows that the proposed model improves the prediction accuracy of each sub-divided subgroup by 5.2% (Table 5 Cat #9)—45.95% (Table 11 Cat #5), depending on the data set. This result comes from the comparison with the related works under the same condition that use target category data to predict each subgroup. In addition, when we refine the global data composition by considering the correlation between subgroups and excluding low correlated subgroups, the prediction accuracy is further improved by 5.6–48.65%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The emergence of infectious diseases with pandemic potential is a major public health threat worldwide. The World Health Organization reports that about 60% of emerging infectious diseases are zoonoses, originating from spillover events. Although the mechanisms behind spillover events remain unclear, mathematical modeling offers a way to understand the intricate interactions among pathogens, wildlife, humans, and their shared environment. Aiming at gaining insights into the dynamics of spillover events and the outcome of an eventual disease outbreak in a population, we propose a continuous time stochastic modeling framework. This framework links the dynamics of animal reservoirs and human hosts to simulate cross-species disease transmission. We conduct a thorough analysis of the model followed by numerical experiments that explore various spillover scenarios. The results suggest that although most epidemic outbreaks caused by novel zoonotic pathogens do not persist in the human population, the rising number of spillover events can avoid long-lasting extinction and lead to unexpected large outbreaks. Hence, global efforts to reduce the impacts of emerging diseases should not only address post-emergence outbreak control but also need to prevent pandemics before they are established. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was considered a major public health burden worldwide. Multiple studies have shown that susceptibility to severe infections and the development of long-term symptoms is significantly influenced by viral and host factors. These findings have highlighted the potential of host genetic markers to identify high-risk individuals and develop target interventions to reduce morbimortality. Despite its importance, genetic host factors remain largely understudied in Latin-American populations. Using a case–control design and a custom next-generation sequencing (NGS) panel encompassing 81 genetic variants and 74 genes previously associated with COVID-19 severity and long-COVID, we analyzed 56 individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19 and 56 severe and critical cases. In agreement with previous studies, our results support the association between several clinical variables, including male sex, obesity and common symptoms like cough and dyspnea, and severe COVID-19. Remarkably, thirteen genetic variants showed an association with COVID-19 severity. Among these variants, rs11385942 (p < 0.01; OR = 10.88; 95% CI = 1.36–86.51) located in the LZTFL1 gene, and rs35775079 (p = 0.02; OR = 8.53; 95% CI = 1.05–69.45) located in CCR3 showed the strongest associations. Various respiratory and systemic symptoms, along with the rs8178521 variant (p < 0.01; OR = 2.51; 95% CI = 1.27–4.94) in the IL10RB gene, were significantly associated with the presence of long-COVID. The results of the predictive model comparison showed that the mixed model, which incorporates genetic and non-genetic variables, outperforms clinical and genetic models. To our knowledge, this is the first study in Colombia and Latin-America proposing a predictive model for COVID-19 severity and long-COVID based on genomic analysis. Our study highlights the usefulness of genomic approaches to studying host genetic risk factors in specific populations. The methodology used allowed us to validate several genetic variants previously associated with COVID-19 severity and long-COVID. Finally, the integrated model illustrates the importance of considering genetic factors in precision medicine of infectious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current global COVID-19 booster scheduling strategies mainly focus on vaccinating high-risk populations at predetermined intervals. However, these strategies overlook key data: the direct insights into individual immunity levels from active serological testing and the indirect information available either through sample-based sero-surveillance, or vital demographic, location, and epidemiological factors. Our research, employing an age-, risk-, and region-structured mathematical model of disease transmission—based on COVID-19 incidence and vaccination data from Israel between 15 May 2020 and 25 October 2021—reveals that a more comprehensive strategy integrating these elements can significantly reduce COVID-19 hospitalizations without increasing existing booster coverage. Notably, the effective use of indirect information alone can considerably decrease COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations, without the need for additional vaccine doses. This approach may also be applicable in optimizing vaccination strategies for other infectious diseases, including influenza. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Institutions have an enhanced ability to implement tailored mitigation measures during infectious disease outbreaks. However, macro-level predictive models are inefficient for guiding institutional decision-making due to uncertainty in local-level model input parameters. We present an institutional-level modeling toolkit used to inform prediction, resource procurement and allocation, and policy implementation at Clemson University throughout the Covid-19 pandemic. Through incorporating real-time estimation of disease surveillance and epidemiological measures based on institutional data, we argue this approach helps minimize uncertainties in input parameters presented in the broader literature and increases prediction accuracy. We demonstrate this through case studies at Clemson and other university settings during the Omicron BA.1 and BA.4/BA.5 variant surges. The input parameters of our toolkit are easily adaptable to other institutional settings during future health emergencies. This methodological approach has potential to improve public health response through increasing the capability of institutions to make data-informed decisions that better prioritize the health and safety of their communities while minimizing operational disruptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Malaria ranks high among prevalent and ravaging infectious diseases in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The negative impacts, disease burden, and risk are higher among children and pregnant women as part of the most vulnerable groups to malaria in Nigeria. However, the burden of malaria is not even in space and time. This study explores the spatial variability of malaria prevalence among children under five years (U5) in medium-sized rapidly growing city of Akure, Nigeria using model-based geostatistical modeling (MBG) technique to predict U5 malaria burden at a 100 × 100 m grid, while the parameter estimation was done using Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method. The non-spatial logistic regression model shows that U5 malaria prevalence is significantly influenced by the usage of insecticide-treated nets—ITNs, window protection, and water source. Furthermore, the MBG model shows predicted U5 malaria prevalence in Akure is greater than 35% at certain locations while we were able to ascertain places with U5 prevalence > 10% (i.e. hotspots) using exceedance probability modelling which is a vital tool for policy development. The map provides place-based evidence on the spatial variation of U5 malaria in Akure, and direction on where intensified interventions are crucial for the reduction of U5 malaria burden and improvement of urban health in Akure, Nigeria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dengue fever, a prevalent and rapidly spreading arboviral disease, poses substantial public health and economic challenges in tropical and sub-tropical regions worldwide. Predicting infectious disease outbreaks on a countrywide scale is complex due to spatiotemporal variations in dengue incidence across administrative areas. To address this, we propose a machine learning ensemble model for forecasting the dengue incidence rate (DIR) in Brazil, with a focus on the population under 19 years old. The model integrates spatial and temporal information, providing one-month-ahead DIR estimates at the state level. Comparative analyses with a dummy model and ablation studies demonstrate the ensemble model's qualitative and quantitative efficacy across the 27 Brazilian Federal Units. Furthermore, we showcase the transferability of this approach to Peru, another Latin American country with differing epidemiological characteristics. This timely forecast system can aid local governments in implementing targeted control measures. The study advances climate services for health by identifying factors triggering dengue outbreaks in Brazil and Peru, emphasizing collaborative efforts with intergovernmental organizations and public health institutions. The innovation lies not only in the algorithms themselves but in their application to a domain marked by data scarcity and operational scalability challenges. We bridge the gap by integrating well-curated ground data with advanced analytical methods, addressing a significant deficiency in current practices. The successful transfer of the model to Peru and its consistent performance during the 2019 outbreak in Brazil showcase its scalability and practical application. While acknowledging limitations in handling extreme values, especially in regions with low DIR, our approach excels where accurate predictions are critical. The study not only contributes to advancing DIR forecasting but also represents a paradigm shift in integrating advanced analytics into public health operational frameworks. This work, driven by a collaborative spirit involving intergovernmental organizations and public health institutions, sets a precedent for interdisciplinary collaboration in addressing global health challenges. It not only enhances our understanding of factors triggering dengue outbreaks but also serves as a template for the effective implementation of advanced analytical methods in public health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How does threat from disease shape our cooperative actions and the social norms that guide such behaviour? To study these questions, we draw on a collective-risk social dilemma experiment that we ran before the emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic (Wave 1, 2018) and compare this to its exact replication, sampling from the same population, that we conducted during the first wave of the pandemic (Wave 2, 2020). Tightness-looseness theory predicts and evidence generally supports that both cooperation and accompanying social norms should increase, yet, we mostly did not find this. Contributions, the probability of reaching the threshold (cooperation), and the contents of the social norm (how much people should contribute) remained similar across the waves, although the strength of these social norms were slightly greater in Wave 2. We also study whether the results from Wave 1 that should not be affected by the pandemic—the relationship between social norms and cooperation and specific behavioural types—replicate in Wave 2 and find that these results generally hold. Overall, our work demonstrates that social norms are important drivers of cooperation, yet, communicable diseases, at least in the short term, have little or no effects on either. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The progress of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic requires the design of large-scale, cost-effective testing programs. Pooling samples provides a solution if the tests are sensitive enough. In this regard, the use of the gold standard, RT-qPCR, raises some concerns. Recently, droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) was shown to be 10–100 times more sensitive than RT-qPCR, making it more suitable for pooling. Furthermore, ddPCR quantifies the RNA content directly, a feature that, as we show, can be used to identify nonviable samples in pools. Cost-effective strategies require the definition of efficient deconvolution and re-testing procedures. In this paper we analyze the practical implementation of an efficient hierarchical pooling strategy for which we have recently derived the optimal, determining the best ways to proceed when there are impediments for the use of the absolute optimum or when multiple pools are tested simultaneously and there are restrictions on the throughput time. We also show how the ddPCR RNA quantification and the nested nature of the strategy can be combined to perform self-consistency tests for a better identification of infected individuals and nonviable samples. The studies are useful to those considering pool testing for the identification of infected individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study evaluates the non-communicable disease (NCD) patterns and related risk factors among people living with HIV (PLWH) in Iran. This national cross-sectional survey study was conducted on 1173 confirmed PLWHs with a mean age of 35.35 (56.82 Over 50 years old, 33.90 Under 50 years old) admitted from 15 different provinces in the country. Logistic regression was used to analyze the association of factors with having at least one NCD comorbidity. From 1173 PLWH, 225(19.18%) participants experienced at least one NCD (15.20% and 38.69% among under- and over-50-year-old patients, respectively). The prevalence of heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, and sleep apnea among all patients was 1.59%, 2.05%, 1.55%, and 10.26%, respectively. The similar prevalence for each NCD among those over 50 years was 10.11%, 15.71%, 9.01%, 25.44%, and 1.01%, 1.12%, 1.04%, and 9.23% among those under 50 years, respectively. The odds of being at risk of at least one NCD stood higher in patients over 50 years (ORadj = 2.93, 95% CI 1.96–4.37), married (ORadj = 2.48, 95% CI 1.41–4.35), divorced or widowed (ORadj = 2.78, 95% CI 1.48–5.20), and obese (ORadj = 3.82, 95% CI 2.46–5.91). According to our findings regarding the prevalence of NCDs among patients under 50 years of age, we recommend that policymakers give greater consideration to this group in the screening and care programs for NCDs since adults and the elderly are both vulnerable to the risk factors for developing NCDs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many policymakers have adopted voluntary vaccination policies to alleviate the consequences of contagious diseases. Such policies have several well-established feathers, i.e. they are seasonal, depending on an individual's decision, adaptive, and control epidemic activity. Here, we study ideas from behavioral epidemiology embedded with a vaccination game and pairwise two-player two-strategy game to represent the environmental feedback in an SVIR model by using a composite information index including disease incidence, vaccine factors and cooperative behavior on a global time scale (repeated season). In its turn, the information index's game dynamics to participate in the vaccine program (cooperation) is supposed to reflect the feedback-evolving dynamics of competitive cognitions and the environment. The assuming model is described by two different evolutionary game systems connected by an unknown external public opinion environment feedback. The embedded model is described by an inherited system showing a behavioral aspect, i.e. pairwise game indicates an individual's cooperative behavior, and a vaccine game refers to vaccine-cost influence. This is a novel attempt to stabilize the two different decision processes to pool them into a single index. Extensive simulations suggest a rich spectrum of achievable results, including epidemic control, human behavior, social dilemma, and policy suggestions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hepatitis B disease is a communicable disease that is caused by the hepatitis B virus and has become a significant health problem in the world. It is a contagious disease that is transmittable from person to person either horizontally or vertically. This current study is aimed at sensitivity analysis and optimal control strategies for a fractional hepatitis B epidemic model with a saturated incidence rate in the sense of the Caputo order fractional derivative approach. Fundamental properties of the proposed fractional order model are obtained and discussed. A detailed analysis of disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium points is given by applying fractional calculus theory, which is a generalized version of classical calculus. Sensitivity indexes are calculated for the classical order model. Illustrative graphics that show the dependence of the sensitivity index on fractional order derivative for α ∈ (0 , 1) are provided. Based on the results of the sensitivity analysis and using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle, optimal control strategies for preventing hepatitis B infection with vaccination and treatment are considered. Fractional Euler's method is used to carry out the numerical simulation for the proposed fractional optimal control system and the obtained results are analyzed. The results of the analysis reveal that hepatitis B disease can be prevented if necessary precautionary is taken or effective vaccination and treatment control measures are applied. The analysis of cost-effectiveness is also conducted and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Women in prison have high risk for non-communicable diseases both in relation to men in prison and in relation to women in the general population. This study documented the health disparities related to diseases among women in prison and in the general female population in Brazil. Women in prisons (WP) < 30 years old had a prevalence of hypertension (PR = 4.5; 95% CI 3.4–6.1), cardiovascular disease (PR = 4.4; 95% CI 2.4–7.9) and asthma (PR = 3.0; 95% CI 2.3–3.8) higher than general female population in Brazil in the same age group. Women in prison > 50 years old also presented asthma prevalence (PR = 4.3; 95% CI 2.9–6.3) higher than the general female population in Brazil in the same age group. These women in prison, overwhelmingly young, could be mistaken for an elderly population in Brazil. Actively responding to early disease in these women can reduce overall health costs and improve health care for this population that may have limited access to health care outside of prison. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a great challenge to healthcare systems worldwide. It highlighted the need for robust predictive models which can be readily deployed to uncover heterogeneities in disease course, aid decision-making and prioritise treatment. We adapted an unsupervised data-driven model—SuStaIn, to be utilised for short-term infectious disease like COVID-19, based on 11 commonly recorded clinical measures. We used 1344 patients from the National COVID-19 Chest Imaging Database (NCCID), hospitalised for RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 disease, splitting them equally into a training and an independent validation cohort. We discovered three COVID-19 subtypes (General Haemodynamic, Renal and Immunological) and introduced disease severity stages, both of which were predictive of distinct risks of in-hospital mortality or escalation of treatment, when analysed using Cox Proportional Hazards models. A low-risk Normal-appearing subtype was also discovered. The model and our full pipeline are available online and can be adapted for future outbreaks of COVID-19 or other infectious disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Typhoid fever is a contagious disease that is generally caused by bacteria known as Salmonella typhi. This disease spreads through manure contamination of food or water and infects unprotected people. In this work, our focus is to numerically examine the dynamical behavior of a typhoid fever nonlinear mathematical model. To achieve our objective, we utilize a conditionally stable Runge–Kutta scheme of order 4 (RK-4) and an unconditionally stable non-standard finite difference (NSFD) scheme to better understand the dynamical behavior of the continuous model. The primary advantage of using the NSFD scheme to solve differential equations is its capacity to discretize the continuous model while upholding crucial dynamical properties like the solutions convergence to equilibria and its positivity for all finite step sizes. Additionally, the NSFD scheme does not only address the deficiencies of the RK-4 scheme, but also provides results that are consistent with the continuous system's solutions. Our numerical results demonstrate that RK-4 scheme is dynamically reliable only for lower step size and, consequently cannot exactly retain the important features of the original continuous model. The NSFD scheme, on the other hand, is a strong and efficient method that presents an accurate portrayal of the original model. The purpose of developing the NSFD scheme for differential equations is to make sure that it is dynamically consistent, which means to discretize the continuous model while keeping significant dynamical properties including the convergence of equilibria and positivity of solutions for all step sizes. The numerical simulation also indicates that all the dynamical characteristics of the continuous model are conserved by discrete NSFD scheme. The theoretical and numerical results in the current work can be engaged as a useful tool for tracking the occurrence of typhoid fever disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bacterial aggregation by mixing with polymers is applied as pretreatment to identify pathogens in patients with infectious diseases. However, the detailed interaction between polymers and bacteria has yet to be fully understood. Here, we investigate the interaction between polyallylamine and Escherichia coli by isothermal titration calorimetry. Aggregation was observed at pH 10 and the binding was driven by favorable enthalpic gain such as the electrostatic interaction. Neither aggregation nor the apparent heat of binding was observed at pH 4.0, despite the strong positive charge of polyallylamine. These results suggest that intermolecular repulsive forces of the abundant positive charge of polyallylamine cause an increased loss of conformational entropy by binding. Non-electrostatic interaction plays a critical role for aggregation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the beginning of the global pandemic of Coronavirus (SARS-COV-2), there has been many studies devoted to predicting the COVID-19 related deaths/hospitalizations. The aim of our work is to (1) explore the lagged dependence between the time series of case counts and the time series of death counts; and (2) utilize such a relationship for prediction. The proposed approach can also be applied to other infectious diseases or wherever dynamics in lagged dependence are of primary interest. Different from the previous studies, we focus on time-varying coefficient models to account for the evolution of the coronavirus. Using two different types of time-varying coefficient models, local polynomial regression models and piecewise linear regression models, we analyze the province-level data in Canada as well as country-level data using cumulative counts. We use out-of-sample prediction to evaluate the model performance. Based on our data analyses, both time-varying coefficient modeling strategies work well. Local polynomial regression models generally work better than piecewise linear regression models, especially when the pattern of the relationship between the two time series of counts gets more complicated (e.g., more segments are needed to portray the pattern). Our proposed methods can be easily and quickly implemented via existing R packages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mass testing is essential for identifying infected individuals during an epidemic and allowing healthy individuals to return to normal social activities. However, testing capacity is often insufficient to meet global health needs, especially during newly emerging epidemics. Dorfman's method, a classic group testing technique, helps reduce the number of tests required by pooling the samples of multiple individuals into a single sample for analysis. Dorfman's method does not consider the time dynamics or limits on testing capacity involved in infection detection, and it assumes that individuals are infected independently, ignoring community correlations. To address these limitations, we present an adaptive group testing (AGT) strategy based on graph partitioning, which divides a physical contact network into subgraphs (groups of individuals) and assigns testing priorities based on the social contact characteristics of each subgraph. Our AGT aims to maximize the number of infected individuals detected and minimize the number of tests required. After each testing round (perhaps on a daily basis), the testing priority is increased for each neighboring group of known infected individuals. We also present an enhanced infectious disease transmission model that simulates the dynamic spread of a pathogen and evaluate our AGT strategy using the simulation results. When applied to 13 social contact networks, AGT demonstrates significant performance improvements compared to Dorfman's method and its variations. Our AGT strategy requires fewer tests overall, reduces disease spread, and retains robustness under changes in group size, testing capacity, and other parameters. Testing plays a crucial role in containing and mitigating pandemics by identifying infected individuals and helping to prevent further transmission in families and communities. By identifying infected individuals and helping to prevent further transmission in families and communities, our AGT strategy can have significant implications for public health, providing guidance for policymakers trying to balance economic activity with the need to manage the spread of infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic across Chinese mainland was gradually stabilized at a low level with sporadic outbreaks, before the emergence of Omicron variant. Apart from non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs), COVID-19 vaccine has also been implemented to prevent and control the pandemic since early 2021. Although many aspects have been focused, the change of the spatiotemporal distribution of COVID-19 epidemic across Chinese mainland responding to the change of prevention and control measures were less concerned. Here, we collected the confirmed case data (including domestic cases and overseas imported cases) across Chinese mainland during both 2020/04–2020/08 and 2021/04–2021/08, and then conducted a preliminary data comparison on the spatiotemporal distribution of confirmed cases during the identical period between the two years. Distribution patterns were evaluated both qualitatively by classification method and quantitatively through employing coefficient of variation. Results revealed significant differences in the homogeneity of spatiotemporal distributions of imported or domestic cases between the two years, indicating that the important effect of the adjustment of prevention and control measures on the epidemic evolution. The findings here enriched our practical experience of COVID-19 prevention and control. And, the collected data here might be helpful for improving or verifying spatiotemporally dynamic models of infectious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Infectious diseases spread rapidly, and epidemiological surveys are vital to detect high-risk transmitters and reduce transmission rates. To enhance efficiency and reduce the burden on epidemiologists, an automatic tool to assist with epidemiological surveys is necessary. This study aims to develop an automatic epidemiological survey to predict the influence of COVID-19-infected patients on future additional infections. To achieve this, the study utilized a dataset containing interaction information between confirmed cases, including contact order, contact times, and movement routes, as well as individual properties such as symptoms. Graph neural networks (GNNs) were used to incorporate interaction information and individual properties. Two variants of GNNs, graph convolutional and graph attention networks, were utilized, and the results showed that the graph-based models outperformed traditional machine learning models. For the area under the curve, the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th order spreading predictions showed higher performance by 0.200, 0.269, and 0.190, respectively. The results show that the contact information of an infected person is crucial data that can help predict whether that person will affect future infections. Our findings suggest that incorporating the relationships between an infected person and others can improve the effectiveness of an automatic epidemiological survey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Isolation of close contact people and negative test certification are used to manage the spread of new coronavirus infections worldwide. These effectively prevent the spread of infection in advance, but they can lead to a decline in socio-economic activity. Thus, the present study quantified the extent to which isolation and negative test certification respectively reduce the risk of infection. To this end, a discrete-time SEIR model was used as the infectious disease model, and equations for calculating the conditional probability of non-infection status given negative test results on two different days were derived. Then the respective non-infection probabilities with two negative PCR test results, and with one negative PCR test result and one antigen test result, were quantified. By substituting initial parameters of the SEIR model into these probabilities, the present study revealed the following: (1) isolating close contact individuals can reduce by 80 % the risk of infection during the first 5 days, but five more days are needed to reduce the risk 10 % more, and seven more days to reduce the risk 20 % more; and (2) if an individual with a negative PCR test result has a negative antigen test result the next day, then his or her infection probability is between 0.6 and 0.7 % . Our results show that 5-day isolation has a proportionally greater effect on risk reduction, compared to longer isolation; and thus, if an isolation period of longer than 5 days is contemplated, both the risk reduction and the negative effects from such increased isolation should be considered. Regarding negative test certification, our results provide those in managerial positions, who must decide whether to accept the risk and hold mass-gathering events, with quantitative information that may be useful in their decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leishmaniasis is an infectious disease, caused by a protozoan parasite. Its most common form is cutaneous leishmaniasis, which leaves scars on exposed body parts from bites by infected female phlebotomine sandflies. Approximately 50% of cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis fail to respond to standard treatments, creating slow-healing wounds which cause permanent scars on the skin. We performed a joint bioinformatics analysis to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in healthy skin biopsies and Leishmania cutaneous wounds. DEGs and WGCNA modules were analyzed based on the Gene Ontology function, and the Cytoscape software. Among almost 16,600 genes that had significant expression changes on the skin surrounding Leishmania wounds, WGCNA determined that one of the modules, with 456 genes, has the strongest correlation with the size of the wounds. Functional enrichment analysis indicated that this module includes three gene groups with significant expression changes. These produce tissue-damaging cytokines or disrupt the production and activation of collagen, fibrin proteins, and the extracellular matrix, causing skin wounds or preventing them from healing. The hub genes of these groups are OAS1, SERPINH1, and FBLN1 respectively. This information can provide new ways to deal with unwanted and harmful effects of cutaneous leishmaniasis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) is becoming a common procedure for research into infectious disease immunology. Little is known about the clinical factors which influence the main outcomes of the procedure. In research participants who underwent BAL according to guidelines, the BAL volume yield, and cell yield, concentration, viability, pellet colour and differential count were analysed for association with important participant characteristics such as active tuberculosis (TB) disease, TB exposure, HIV infection and recent SARS-CoV-2 infection. In 337 participants, BAL volume and BAL cell count were correlated in those with active TB disease, and current smokers. The right middle lobe yielded the highest volume. BAL cell and volume yields were lower in older participants, who also had more neutrophils. Current smokers yielded lower volumes and higher numbers of all cell types, and usually had a black pellet. Active TB disease was associated with higher cell yields, but this declined at the end of treatment. HIV infection was associated with more bloody pellets, and recent SARS-CoV-2 infection with a higher proportion of lymphocytes. These results allow researchers to optimise their participant and end assay selection for projects involving lung immune cells. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evolutionary epidemiological models have played an active part in analyzing various contagious diseases and intervention policies in the biological sciences. The design in this effort is the addition of compartments for treatment and vaccination, so the system is designated as susceptible, vaccinated, infected, treated, and recovered (SVITR) epidemic dynamic. The contact of a susceptible individual with a vaccinated or an infected individual makes the individual either immunized or infected. Inventively, the assumption that infected individuals enter the treatment and recover state at different rates after a time interval is also deliberated through the presence of behavioral aspects. The rate of change from susceptible to vaccinated and infected to treatment is studied in a comprehensive evolutionary game theory with a cyclic epidemic model. We theoretically investigate the cyclic SVITR epidemic model framework for disease-free and endemic equilibrium to show stable conditions. Then, the embedded vaccination and treatment strategies are present using extensive evolutionary game theory aspects among the individuals in society through a ridiculous phase diagram. Extensive numerical simulation suggests that effective vaccination and treatment may implicitly reduce the community risk of infection when reliable and cheap. The results exhibited the dilemma and benefitted situation, in which the interplay between vaccination and treatment evolution and coexistence are investigated by the indicators of social efficiency deficit and socially benefited individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the absence of real-time surveillance data, it is difficult to derive an early warning system and potential outbreak locations with the existing epidemiological models, especially in resource-constrained countries. We proposed a contagion risk index (CR-Index)—based on publicly available national statistics—founded on communicable disease spreadability vectors. Utilizing the daily COVID-19 data (positive cases and deaths) from 2020 to 2022, we developed country-specific and sub-national CR-Index for South Asia (India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh) and identified potential infection hotspots—aiding policymakers with efficient mitigation planning. Across the study period, the week-by-week and fixed-effects regression estimates demonstrate a strong correlation between the proposed CR-Index and sub-national (district-level) COVID-19 statistics. We validated the CR-Index using machine learning methods by evaluating the out-of-sample predictive performance. Machine learning driven validation showed that the CR-Index can correctly predict districts with high incidents of COVID-19 cases and deaths more than 85% of the time. This proposed CR-Index is a simple, replicable, and easily interpretable tool that can help low-income countries prioritize resource mobilization to contain the disease spread and associated crisis management with global relevance and applicability. This index can also help to contain future pandemics (and epidemics) and manage their far-reaching adverse consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human migration facilitates the spread of infectious disease. However, little is known about the contribution of migration to the spread of tuberculosis in South Africa. We analyzed longitudinal data on all tuberculosis test results recorded by South Africa's National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS), January 2011–July 2017, alongside municipality-level migration flows estimated from the 2016 South African Community Survey. We first assessed migration patterns in people with laboratory-diagnosed tuberculosis and analyzed demographic predictors. We then quantified the impact of cross-municipality migration on tuberculosis incidence in municipality-level regression models. The NHLS database included 921,888 patients with multiple clinic visits with TB tests. Of these, 147,513 (16%) had tests in different municipalities. The median (IQR) distance travelled was 304 (163 to 536) km. Migration was most common at ages 20–39 years and rates were similar for men and women. In municipality-level regression models, each 1% increase in migration-adjusted tuberculosis prevalence was associated with a 0.47% (95% CI: 0.03% to 0.90%) increase in the incidence of drug-susceptible tuberculosis two years later, even after controlling for baseline prevalence. Similar results were found for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis. Accounting for migration improved our ability to predict future incidence of tuberculosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One clear aspect of behaviour in the COVID-19 pandemic has been people's focus on, and response to, reported or observed infection numbers in their community. We describe a simple model of infectious disease spread in a pandemic situation where people's behaviour is influenced by the current risk of infection and where this behavioural response acts homeostatically to return infection risk to a certain preferred level. This homeostatic response is active until approximate herd immunity is reached: in this domain the model predicts that the reproduction rate R will be centred around a median of 1, that proportional change in infection numbers will follow the standard Cauchy distribution with location and scale parameters 0 and 1, and that high infection numbers will follow a power-law frequency distribution with exponent 2. To test these predictions we used worldwide COVID-19 data from 1st February 2020 to 30th June 2022 to calculate 95 % confidence interval estimates across countries for these R, location, scale and exponent parameters. The resulting median R estimate was 95 % C I = [ 0.99 , 1.01 ] (predicted value 1) the proportional change location estimate was 95 % C I = [ - 0.01 , 0.02 ] (predicted value 0), the proportional change scale estimate was 95 % C I = [ 0.99 , 1.08 ] (predicted value 1), and the frequency distribution exponent estimate was 95 % C I = [ 1.97 , 2.15 ] (predicted value 2); in each case the observed estimate agreed with model predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]