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Air transport has been identified as one of the primary means whereby COVID-19 spread throughout Europe during the early stages of the pandemic. In this paper we analyse two categories of methods - dynamic network markers (DNMs) and network analysis-based methods - as potential early warning signals for detecting and anticipating COVID-19 outbreaks in Europe on the basis of accuracy regarding the daily confirmed cases. The analysis was carried out from 15 February 2020, around two weeks before the first COVID-19 cases appeared in Europe, and 1 May 2020, approximately two weeks after all the air traffic in Europe had been shut down. Daily European COVID-19 information sourced from the World Health Organization was used, whereas air traffic data from Flightradar24 has been incorporated into the analyses by means of four alternative adjacency matrices. Some DNMs have been discarded since they output multiple time series, which makes it very difficult to interpret their results. The only DNM outputting a single time series does not emulate the COVID-19 trend: it does not detect all the main peaks, which means that peak heights do not match up with the increase in the number of infected people. However, many combinations of network analysis based methods and adjacency matrices output good results (with high accuracy and 20-day advance forecasts), with only minor differences from one to another. The number of edges and the network density methods are slightly better when dynamic flight frequency information is used., (© 2023. Springer Nature Limited.)

This article examines the main factors affecting COVID-19 lethality across 16 European Countries with a focus on the role of health system characteristics during the first phase of the diffusion of the virus. Specifically, we investigate the leading causes of lethality at 10, 20, 30, 40 days in the first hit of the pandemic. Using a random forest regression (ML), with lethality as outcome variable, we show that the percentage of people older than 65 years (with two or more chronic diseases) is the main predictor variable of lethality by COVID-19, followed by the number of hospital intensive care unit beds, investments in healthcare spending compared to GDP, number of nurses and doctors. Moreover, the variable of general practitioners has little but significant predicting quality. These findings contribute to provide evidence for the prediction of lethality caused by COVID-19 in Europe and open the discussion on health policy and management of health care and ICU beds during a severe epidemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Europe, multiple waves of infections with SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) have been observed. Here, we have investigated whether common patterns of cytokines could be detected in individuals with mild and severe forms of COVID-19 in two pandemic waves, and whether machine learning approach could be useful to identify the best predictors. An increasing trend of multiple cytokines was observed in patients with mild or severe/critical symptoms of COVID-19, compared with healthy volunteers. Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) clearly recognized the three groups based on cytokine patterns. Classification and Regression Tree (CART) further indicated that IL-6 discriminated controls and COVID-19 patients, whilst IL-8 defined disease severity. During the second wave of pandemics, a less intense cytokine storm was observed, as compared with the first. IL-6 was the most robust predictor of infection and discriminated moderate COVID-19 patients from healthy controls, regardless of epidemic peak curve. Thus, serum cytokine patterns provide biomarkers useful for COVID-19 diagnosis and prognosis. Further definition of individual cytokines may allow to envision novel therapeutic options and pave the way to set up innovative diagnostic tools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]