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Abstract Mycoplasma pneumoniae necrotizing pneumonia (MPNP) has a long and severe disease course, which seriously threatens to jeopardize patients' lives and health. Early prediction is essential for good recovery and prognosis. In the present study, we retrospect 128 children with MPNP and 118 children with Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia combined with pulmonary consolidation to explore the predictive value of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) in children with MPNP by propensity score matching method, multiple logistic regression analysis, dose–response analysis and decision curve analysis. The WBC count, PLT count and percentage of neutrophils were significantly higher in necrosis group than consolidation group. The serum CRP, PCT, ESR, D-D, FIB, ALT, LDH, IgG and IgM were significantly higher in necrosis group. Compared to consolidation group, necrosis group is more severe in chest pain and dyspnea. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that duration of LDH levels, high fever, d-dimer, and fibrinogen were independent predictive factors for the incidence of MPNP. Restricted cubic spline analysis showed that a non-linear dose–response relationship between the continuous changes of LDH level and the incidence of MPNP. Decision curve analysis revealed that LDH had an important clinical value in predicting MPNP. This study provides a potential serologic indicator for early diagnosis of MPNP.