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Demand for spare parts, which is triggered by element failure, project schedule and reliability demand, etc., is a kind of sensing data to the aftermarket service of large manufacturing enterprises. Prediction of the demand for spare parts plays a crucial role in inventory management and lifecycle quality management for the aftermarket service of large-scale manufacturing enterprises. In real-life applications, however, demand for spare parts occurs randomly and fluctuates greatly, and the demand sequence shows obvious intermittent distribution characteristics. Additionally, due to factors such as reporting mistakes made by personnel or environmental changes, the actual data of the demand for spare parts are prone to abnormal variations. It is thus hard to capture the evolutional pattern of the demand for spare parts by traditional time series forecasting methods. The reliability of prediction results is also reduced. To address these concerns, this paper proposes a tensor optimization-based robust interval prediction method of intermittent time series for the aftersales demand for spare parts. First, using the advantages of tensor decomposition to effectively mine intrinsic information from raw data, a sequence-smoothing network based on tensor decomposition and a stacked autoencoder is proposed. Tucker decomposition is applied to the hidden features of the encoder, and the obtained core tensor is reconstructed through the decoder, thus allowing us to smooth outliers in the original demand sequence. An alternating optimization algorithm is further designed to find the optimal sequence feature representation and tensor decomposition factors for the extraction of the evolutionary trend of the intermittent series. Second, an adaptive interval prediction algorithm with a dynamic update mechanism is designed to obtain point prediction values and prediction intervals for the demand sequence, thereby improving the reliability of the forecast. The proposed method is validated using the actual aftersales data from a large engineering manufacturing enterprise in China. The experimental results demonstrate that, compared with typical time series prediction methods, the proposed method can effectively grab the evolutionary trend of various intermittent series and improve the accuracy of predictions made with small-sample intermittent series. Moreover, the proposed method provides a reliable elastic prediction interval when distortion occurs in the prediction results, offering a new solution for intelligent planning decisions related to spare parts in practical maintenance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aiming at the online detection problem of rolling bearings, the limited amount of target bearing data leads to insufficient model in training and feature representation. It is difficult for the online detection model to construct an accurate decision boundary. To solve the problem, a multi-scale robust anomaly detection method based on data enhancement technology is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the training data are transformed into multiple subspaces through the data enhancement technology. Then, a prototype clustering method is introduced to enhance the robustness of features representation under the framework of the robust deep auto-encoding algorithm. Finally, the robust multi-scale Deep-SVDD hyper sphere model is constructed to achieve online detection of abnormal state data. Experiments are conducted on the IEEE PHM Challenge 2012 bearing data set and XJTU-TU data set. The proposed method shows much greater susceptibility to incipient faults, and it has fewer false alarms. The robust multi-scale Deep-SVDD hyper sphere model significantly improves the performance of incipient fault detection for rolling bearings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]