1. Making pandemics big: On the situational performance of Covid-19 mathematical models.
- Author
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Rhodes, Tim and Lancaster, Kari
- Subjects
- *
MEDICINE , *HEALTH policy , *SOCIAL sciences , *MATHEMATICS , *EPIDEMICS , *STAY-at-home orders , *COVID-19 pandemic - Abstract
In this paper, we trace how mathematical models are made 'evidence enough' and 'useful for policy'. Working with the interview accounts of mathematical modellers and other scientists engaged in the UK Covid-19 response, we focus on two weeks in March 2020 prior to the announcement of an unprecedented national lockdown. A key thread in our analysis is how pandemics are made 'big'. We follow the work of one particular device, that of modelled 'doubling-time'. By following how modelled doubling-time entangles in its assemblage of evidence-making, we draw attention to multiple actors, including beyond models and metrics, which affect how evidence is performed in relation to the scale of epidemic and its policy response. We draw attention to: policy; Government scientific advice infrastructure; time; uncertainty; and leaps of faith. The 'bigness' of the pandemic, and its evidencing, is situated in social and affective practices, in which uncertainty and dis-ease are inseparable from calculus. This materialises modelling in policy as an 'uncomfortable science'. We argue that situational fit in-the-moment is at least as important as empirical fit when attending to what models perform in policy. • Pandemics are performed as crises of uncertain yet catastrophic potential. • Mathematical models are forms of scalar narrative affording epidemics their scale. • Models and projections are made useful as evidence in their situated policy events. • Calculations are given agency as affects in the evidencing of pandemics. • Modelling pandemics is a site of 'uncomfortable science' and 'dis-ease'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
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