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Abstract: In much of sub-Saharan Africa, availability of standardized and reliable public health data is poor or negligible. Despite continued calls for the prioritization of improved health datasets in poor regions, public health surveillance remains a significant global health challenge. Alternate approaches to surveillance and collection of public health data have thus garnered increasing interest, though there remains relatively limited research evaluating these approaches for public health. Herein, we present a case study applying and evaluating the use of expert knowledge sources for public health dataset development, using the case of vector distributions of Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT) in Uganda. Specific objectives include: 1) Review the use of expert knowledge sourcing methods for public health surveillance, 2) Review current knowledge on tsetse vector distributions of public health importance in Uganda and the methods used for tsetse mapping in Africa; 3) Quantify confidence of the presence or absence of tsetse flies in Uganda based on expert informant reports, and 4) Assess the reliability and potential utility of expert knowledge sourcing as an alternative or complimentary method for public health surveillance in general and tsetse mapping in particular. Information on tsetse presence or absence, and associated confidence, was collected through interviews with District Entomologist and Veterinary Officers to develop a database of tsetse distributions for 952 sub-counties in Uganda. Results show high consistency with existing maps, indicating potential reliability of modeling approaches, though failing to provide evidence for successful tsetse control in past decades. Expert-sourcing methods provide a novel, low-cost and rapid complimentary approach for triangulating data from prediction modeling where field-based validation is not feasible. Data quality is dependent, however, on the level of expertise and documentation to support confidence levels for data reporting. Results highlight the need for increased evaluation of alternate approaches and methods to data collection. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT) has reemerged in sub-Saharan Africa as a disease of major public health importance. The success of HAT elimination in sub-Saharan Africa is subject to the feasibility of controlling, eliminating, or mitigating the determinants of incidence in affected countries. Conflict has been widely recognized and cited as a contributing factor to the resurgence of HAT in many countries, as well as to continuing HAT incidence in politically unstable and resource-poor regions. Despite extensive anecdotal and qualitative recognition of the role of conflict, there has been no quantitative research of this topic at the population level in affected African countries. We characterize the qualitative and quantitative associations between HAT incidence and conflict-related processes in HAT-affected African countries over the past 30 years. HAT and conflict-related data were collected for 35 affected countries in sub-Saharan Africa for the years 1976–2004. Descriptive and univariate inferential statistics, as well as negative binomial regression modeling, are used to assess the associations between HAT and conflict. A space-time scan statistic is used to identify significant incidence clusters. Clusters of HAT incidence over the past 30 years have predominantly coincided with periods of conflict or socio-political instability. HAT cases occurred significantly more often in countries and during years with conflict, high political terror, and internationalized civil war. The results indicate a lag period between the start of conflict events and a peak in incidence of approximately 10 years. We recommend explicit consideration and quantification of socio-political measures such as conflict and terror indices in GIS (Geographic Information Systems)-based risk assessments for HAT policy and intervention. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]